Archive for Teams

Effectively Wild Episode 2284: Season Preview Series: Astros and Cardinals

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Ben’s new sound-dampening windows, listener defenses of MLB’s altered two-way-player rule, and the latest intolerable “breakout” pick, followed by Stat Blasts (15:49) about the teams with the most winless, non-lossless pitchers and the all-time past-their-prime/time-travel teams. Then they preview the 2025 Houston Astros (32:41) with The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, and the 2025 St. Louis Cardinals (1:25:07) with The Athletic’s Katie Woo.

Audio intro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 1: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 2: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to windows explainer
Link to breakout push notification
Link to Ragans article
Link to late-2023 pitcher WAR
Link to Stathead results
Link to Kram’s Stat Blast
Link to 2005 payrolls
Link to Ryan’s Stat Blast data
Link to Michael’s Stat Blast data
Link to offseason spending
Link to FG payrolls page
Link to Astros depth chart
Link to Astros offseason tracker
Link to Chandler’s author archive
Link to Chandler’s podcast
Link to Cardinals depth chart
Link to Cardinals offseason tracker
Link to 2024 attendance change
Link to Katie’s author archive
Link to Katie’s podcast
Link to MLBTR on Ragans
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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We Tried Tracker: Alex Bregman Edition

This is my first We Tried Tracker update since December, and I have missed you. I have missed who we were in that simpler, infinitely less cruel time of, you know, two months ago. A lot has happened on the We Tried front, far too much to cover in one article, but with Alex Bregman and Nick Pivetta coming off the board this week, all but one of the first 45 entries on our Top 50 Free Agents list have been signed. (No. 33 Andrew Heaney is the exception.) It’s time to reflect on the state of effort in major league front offices. First, I need to beg for your help once again. I have missed some We Trieds. I’m sure of it. If you see any out there in the wild, or if you notice any omissions in the tracker, please let me know on Bluesky or email me at WeTriedTracker@gmail.com, a real email address that I really check. (I even check the spam folder, which today contains an email from the daughter of the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. She needs a trusted investment manager/partner for her $27.5 million fortune. I’m about to be so rich, you guys.)

From the very beginning of this exercise, the Red Sox have paced the league. As of Thursday, I have them credited with 12 different We Trieds in nine different categories. That’s nearly 18% of all We Trieds! No other team has notched more than six. The Red Sox are fully lapping the field. And until Wednesday evening, what did they have to show for all that effort? A trade for Garrett Crochet and a couple of one-year deals for pitchers in various states of recovery from Tommy John surgery. Well, all that has changed. Apparently, practice really does makes perfect, because the Red Sox have landed Bregman, our third-ranked free agent, on a three-year, $120-million deal with two opt-outs (and enough deferred money to lower the total present value to $90 million). Amazingly, Bregman is the first position player Craig Breslow has signed to a major league deal since the Red Sox hired him in October 2023. That’s why we keep trying. You never know when lucky number 13 is going to pay off. If you just stick to your guns, keep lowballing free agent after free agent, one of them will eventually be so beaten down by the process that he will accept your terms. It’s truly an uplifting tale of hope in these bleak times.

The moment Bregman signed, we got two very detailed We Trieds. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers had offered six years and $171.5 million, including some deferred money, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Cubs offered four years and $120 million. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian clarified Chicago actually offered $115, with opt-outs after the 2026 and 2027 seasons. Regardless of which Cubs offer is more accurate, Detroit’s and Chicago’s offers involve a lower AAV than what Bregman got from Boston, but more money and more years. The Red Sox offered something those two teams didn’t: the ability to leave immediately. If Bregman has himself a big 2025 in Boston, he can try again next offseason. If he doesn’t, he’ll have 120 million reasons not to feel too bad about how things turned out. Sometimes trying the hardest to sign a player means being the most willing to let him leave.

With nearly every notable free agent spoken for, I should probably reflect on what I learned during this exercise. I’ve never paid attention to the hot stove season this intently, and certainly not with this kind of odd, specific focus. I guess the biggest lesson is what a We Tried can tell you about how a team wants to be perceived. Unless I missed something, nine teams haven’t notched a single We Tried: the Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Marlins, Pirates, Rockies, Twins, and White Sox. That’s a very eclectic group. The Dodgers haven’t felt the need to leak it to a reporter when they failed to land a player, because why would they? They’re actually improving their team, so they don’t need to keep up appearances. The White Sox, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies are barely playing the same sport. They’re not competing for impact free agents and would never want their fans to get that impression, lest it raise expectations above their current level of negative infinity. The Twins and Brewers have spent the offseason trying to pull off a balancing act: trying to remain competitive without raising payroll. Unfortunately, they came into the offseason with a solid team and real expectations, and the silence has been deafening.

As for the Cardinals, I don’t really know where to begin. They are, in theory, starting a rebuild, but if there’s been any progress on that front, they’ve done a great job at concealing it. They haven’t signed a major league free agent. They haven’t even hinted that they’ve spent a moment considering the possibility of signing a major league free agent. Instead, they have tried so, so hard and so, so publicly… to get a little bit worse. The Cardinals have spent the entire offseason absorbed in an ill-fated attempt to trade Nolan Arenado, despite the fact that doing so wouldn’t make the team better in the short run (because Arenado is still a solid player) or in the long run (because his contract is so underwater that it’s not worth real prospect capital). The Cardinals were engaged in the noblest attempt of all: saving a few million dollars for the purpose of saving a few million dollars. On Thursday, lame duck president of baseball operations John Mozeliak essentially admitted that this lofty dream was dead. The Cardinals will spend the 2025 season furious that Arenado is still — if the projections are right — their second-best player, rather than what he could have become: a medium-sized pile of money.

Then there are the teams that have been out there trying like crazy. The top four teams are all in the AL East: the Red Sox with 12, the Orioles with seven, the Blue Jays with six, and the Yankees with five. The Cubs and Padres each have four. To some extent, this is just a reflection of reality. The AL East is a monster division where winning is expected. The Yankees play in the biggest media market in the country. They have the loudest fans in the country, and those fans expect them to sign everyone. Silence probably isn’t an option. The Red Sox have similarly demanding fans, and their front office has been publicly promising to break the bank for two straight offseasons now. They didn’t deliver at all during the 2023-2024 offseason, and until the Bregman signing, the only multi-year deal they’d handed out this offseason was still, in a sense, a one-year deal, as it went to Patrick Sandoval, who will be recovering from internal brace surgery for most of the 2025 season. In retrospect, it’s easy to see their We Trieds as assurances that they were acting in good faith.

The Orioles and Blue Jays are in a similar position: They want it to be known that they’re out there attempting to improve their teams. If they’re not trying as hard as fans might like, at least they’re trying loudly. However, there’s an insidious undertone, as all this trying comes while owners are publicly softening up the ground for a death march toward a salary cap. They’re getting ready to lock out the players, and toward that end, they’re getting an early start on painting the players as greedy millionaires. Through that lens, it’s easy to see each We Tried as an attempt to portray the billionaire ownership class as generous and benevolent, willing to go out and sign all those players you want them to, if only those players weren’t quite so expensive.

Rather than end on such a cynical note, let me tell you about my favorite We Tried. It came from Anne Rogers, the Royals beat writer for MLB.com. On February 4, Rogers reposted an MLB Trade Rumors article about Randal Grichuk’s signing with the Diamondbacks. “Royals tried to get Grichuck (sic) but he returns to Arizona,” she wrote. I clicked on the link to the article to find the part about the Royals trying. But when I read the article, I saw that the part about the Royals trying was just a link to that same post from Rogers. You can just keep clicking back and forth between the two links forever. It’s a We Tried ouroboros, and crucially, of the 69 We Trieds I’ve recorded so far, it’s the only one that uses that exact terminology. There’s no “We were in on,” or “We were in the mix,” or “We made a competitive offer.” It’s pure and simple: “Royals tried,” with absolutely zero further information.

This is also the funniest We Tried of the offseason simply because of the terms. Grichuk signed for one year and $5 million (technically it’s $2 million, with a $3 million buyout on a mutual 2026 option). Every other player who was the subject of a We Tried signed a contract that was at least twice as big as Grichuk’s. At least one player I can think of signed a contract that is 153 times bigger than Grichuk’s. There is no such thing as a major league team that can’t afford a one-year, $5 million contract. Hell, several little league teams could probably swing that deal if the right 12-year-old should come along. The Royals truly lowered the bar here. This is what minimum effort looks like.


Padres Bolster Rotation by Signing Pivetta and Hart, but Rumors Won’t Cease

David Butler II Imagn Images; Ashley Green/Telegram & Gazette-Imagn Content Services, LLC

After four season’s worth of high-profile trades, extensions, and free agent signings, the Padres have had a very quiet winter save for the headlines that their ownership battle has generated. On Wednesday, the day that their pitchers and catchers reported to their spring training facility in Peoria, Arizona, the team made by far its biggest move of the offseason, signing free agent Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million deal. They followed that up on Thursday by inking lefty Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with an option.

Taken together, the additions appear to set up a trade of Dylan Cease, the top starter on last year’s 93-win Wild Card team and a pending free agent this winter. However, general manager A.J. Preller indicated that’s not the plan right now, telling reporters on Thursday, “He’s a very big part of our club. The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”

Of course, any decision to keep Cease could be revisited if the Padres receive an offer they can’t refuse, or if they fall out of contention this summer. It should also be pointed out that Michael King, the team’s second-best starter in 2024, is a trade candidate as well; he can also become a free agent after this season if he declines his end of a mutual option for 2026. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2283: Season Preview Series: Cubs and Giants

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Red Sox signing Alex Bregman, the Padres signing Nick Pivetta, and Anthony Rendon’s latest long-term injury. Then they preview the 2025 Chicago Cubs (29:35) with The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, and the 2025 San Francisco Giants (1:14:41) with The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 1: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 2: Grant Brisbee, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to FG post on Bregman
Link to MLBTR on Bregman
Link to over/under draft results
Link to MLBTR on Pivetta
Link to Blum on Rendon
Link to EW episode on Rendon
Link to Cubs depth chart
Link to Cubs offseason tracker
Link to offseason spending
Link to FG payrolls page
Link to Sahadev’s author archive
Link to Sahadev’s podcast
Link to Giants depth chart
Link to Giants offseason tracker
Link to 2014 Giants preview
Link to Grant’s author archive
Link to Grant’s podcast
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman to Cap Brilliant Offseason

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest remaining free agent of the 2024-25 offseason is off the board. In a splashy signing Wednesday night, the Boston Red Sox and Alex Bregman agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal. There’s no shortage of things I want to say about this match of team and player, so let’s stop with this boring introduction already and get right into it.

The Team

The Red Sox needed Bregman, or someone like him, badly. Just one problem – there was no one else like him. When Dan Szymborski ran the numbers last week, he found that the Sox were one of the teams who would receive the greatest boost in playoff odds from signing Houston’s long-time third baseman. Per Dan, Bregman adds 10.8 percentage points to Boston’s chances of reaching October.

The Red Sox play in the toughest division in baseball. They have some holes in their lineup, particularly a decided lack of juice at the bottom of the order. Their bullpen projects well but is packed with uncertainty. A sure thing was just what they needed. Bregman is just that. Since his 2016 debut, he’s been the 10th-best hitter in baseball according to our measure of WAR. “Oh, but Ben, he’s old, he’s faded, he’s past his prime, no one cares about 2019.” Yeah, well, over the last four years, Bregman has been the 11th-best position player in baseball. So much for a decline phase.
Read the rest of this entry »


Bubba Chandler Addresses His Power Arsenal

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Bubba Chandler is on track to join Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in the power department of the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation. Equipped with an elite upper-90s fastball and a solid array of secondary offerings, the 22-year-old right-hander has emerged as one of baseball’s highest-ceiling pitching prospects. As Eric Longenhagen notes in our forthcoming Top 100, Chandler, who was a two-sport, two-way player as an amateur and began focusing solely on pitching in 2023, is still developing, but “so far, [it’s] going as well as could have been hoped when he was drafted, and he’s tracking like a mid-rotation starter.”

His 2024 season offered ample evidence of his ability to overpower hitters. In 119 2/3 innings between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, Chandler fanned 148 batters while surrendering just 81 hits. Along with a 30.9% strikeout rate and a .187 batting-average-against, he logged a 3.08 ERA and a 3.10 FIP. Moreover, he displayed improved command. The 2021 third-round draft pick out of Bogart, Georgia’s North Oconee High School lowered his walk rate from 10.5% in 2023 to a stingier 8.6% last season.

Chandler discussed his developmental strides, and the bat-missing arsenal he takes with him to the mound, earlier this month.

———

David Laurila: What have you learned about pitching since getting to pro ball?

Bubba Chandler: “The number one thing has been command. You can have great stuff, but I’ve noticed that the more I’ve gone up [minor league levels], the less guys swing at crappy pitches. In Low-A, you can throw a slider way out of the zone, and a lot of times you’re going to get a swing. If you throw a slider way out of the zone in Triple-A, especially if you didn’t set that pitch up, you’re not even going to get a lean over, or a budge, on it.

“Learning how to set pitches up has been a big thing for me. Setting them up, tunneling, and just how pitches move… but really, the command part is really what has helped make me better.” Read the rest of this entry »


No Surprise: Clayton Kershaw Is Back With the Dodgers

Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

On Tuesday, pitchers and catchers officially reported to Camelback Ranch, the spring training home that the Dodgers share with the White Sox in Glendale, Arizona. Among the Dodgers reporting was a familiar face, that of Clayton Kershaw. According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, the three-time Cy Young winner — who had entered free agency for the fourth offseason in a row — has agreed to terms with the Dodgers and will return for his 18th major league season.

For as much as the move was anticipated, the sight of Kershaw in camp was a reassuring harbinger of spring. Given his accomplishments and the slew of injuries he’s endured in recent years, the continuation of the future Hall of Famer’s career isn’t something to take for granted. The details of his contract have not been announced at this writing, and the deal is still pending a physical. Once it’s finalized, we can probably expect some incentives and mechanisms that help to lower the team’s tax hit, whether in the form of deferred money or a less lucrative player option for 2026. The Dodgers’ 40-man roster is full, but with the opening of camp, the team can transfer players to the 60-day injured list and free up roster spots. On Tuesday, they did just that in order to accommodate the return of Enrique Hernández, moving pitcher Gavin Stone, who will miss the whole season due to shoulder surgery, to the 60-day IL.

[Update: The deal became official on Wednesday, with River Ryan, who is recovering from August 2024 Tommy John surgery, transferred to the 60-day IL to make room. According to FanSided’s Robert Murray, Kershaw will receive a base salary of $7.5 million, and can max out at $16 million via incentives. He’ll receive an additional million apiece for starts 13 through 16, a roster bonus of $2.5 million for being active for at least 30 days, and additional $1 million bonuses for reaching 60 and 90 days.]

Kershaw, who turns 37 on March 19, could be a candidate for a 60-day IL slot himself, as he underwent a pair of offseason surgeries following a season in which he made just seven starts totaling 30 innings, the last of them on August 30. He was a bystander during the Dodgers’ championship run, though anyone who witnessed either the clubhouse festivities at Yankee Stadium — during which Kershaw shed his shirt — or the celebration at Dodger Stadium following their victory parade through Los Angeles can attest that he was no less exuberant about the team’s World Series win. Read the rest of this entry »


Kenley Jansen Returns to Los Angeles — Well, Sort Of

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Kenley Jansen his headed back to Los Angeles, if only in name, on a one-year, $10 million contract with the Angels.

The 37-year-old four-time All-Star currently sits fourth all-time on the career saves list and leads all active pitchers in the category. Jansen famously did most of that damage in Dodger blue, and now at the twilight of his career, he returns to his old stomping grounds… ish. Like 45 minutes down the freeway from his old stomping grounds. Close enough. Read the rest of this entry »


Farm Director Justin Toole Weighs In On Seattle’s Hitter-Heavy System

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners currently have one of baseball’s best farm systems, and its strength differs markedly from that of the big league roster. Pitching-rich at the major league level, it’s Mariners position player prospects who populate the top tier of our rankings. That’s welcome news — at least on paper — for a Seattle team that has recently excelled at keeping runs off the board, but has too often struggled to score.

Justin Toole is front and center in the organization’s quest to graduate productive bats into the parent club’s lineup. Brought on as director of player development following the 2022 season, the 38-year-old Council Bluffs, Iowa native has both the background and the acumen to help make that happen. Prior to coming to Seattle, Toole played seven professional seasons, then served four years as a minor league hitting coach, followed by three as a major league hitting analyst. All of his pre-Mariners experience came with Cleveland.

Toole discussed several of the system’s most promising prospects prior to heading to Arizona for the start of spring training.

———

David Laurila: What is the current strength of the system?

Justin Toole: “From a player development standpoint, I think the strength is the individuality with how we handle our players. When we get people into our system, we figure out their strengths, we figure out their weaknesses, we help them understand their identity. We work with our players to get a feel for where they think they are, and where they want to go.

“Our group has done an unbelievable job of creating good player plans that are clear, that are are easy to follow. They’re simple. I think that’s kind of been the strength of our player development group. Of course, any good player development group is going to be good because of the scouting group. They bring in good players, players that fit what we want to do, and who we want to be.” Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2282: Season Preview Series: Twins and Tigers

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Rob Manfred’s Super Bowl cameo, the return of not-terrible uniforms, a new finding in the “familiarity vs. fatigue” debate about the times through the order effect, two more Dodgers signings, and an intriguingly timed alteration to the criteria for two-way-player classification. Then they preview the 2025 Minnesota Twins (46:06) with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, and the 2025 Detroit Tigers (1:29:21) with The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen.

Audio intro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 1: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 2: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Philip Bergman, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Manfred clip
Link to Fielder meme
Link to uniforms article
Link to BP TTOP study
Link to previous TTOP research
Link to MLBTR on Kershaw
Link to FG on Hernández
Link to 2024 major league rules
Link to 2021 major league rules
Link to 2019 rule announcement
Link to 2020 press release
Link to 2021 press release
Link to current glossary entry
Link to archived entry
Link to Twins depth chart
Link to Twins offseason tracker
Link to offseason FA spending
Link to FG payrolls page
Link to A-Rod arb news
Link to RP projections
Link to 2024 RP WAR
Link to SP projections
Link to Aaron on France
Link to Aaron’s author archive
Link to Aaron’s podcast
Link to Tigers depth chart
Link to Tigers offseason tracker
Link to farm system ranking
Link to Cody’s author archive
Link to Cody’s podcast
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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