Back in February, I wrote (and sang) about the electric debut of Edouard Julien, which featured excellent plate discipline and extreme platoon splits. The rookie second baseman ran a 136 wRC+ and put up 2.8 WAR in just 109 games, then hit even better in the postseason. Facing a steady diet of righties, Julien balanced out a precipitously high strikeout rate with an even better walk rate. He also balanced out roughly average raw power by hitting the ball hard consistently. This season, however, his strikeout rate has gone from high to untenable and his contact quality has taken a significant step back. Julien was sent down to Triple-A St. Paul to figure things out in June. Let’s take a look at what’s going on and how he might be able to fix it.

We should start by making it clear that Julien’s season, while disappointing, has not been disastrous by any means. He has a 93 wRC+, including a much improved 98 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (though once again it’s an extremely small sample size). He’s also improved his defense, and as a result, he’s put up 0.8 WAR over his 63 games with Minnesota. Prorated out over a full 162-game season, he’s right around league average at 2.1 WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a little insight into my writing process. When I turn on my computer in the morning, my mind completely devoid of ideas apart from the knowledge that Meg is going to message me in a couple hours asking if I plan on working today, the first thing I do is look at our leaderboards. Maybe just seeing a name will jog something loose, or maybe I’ll learn about someone doing something exceptionally good or bad.

It’s fun to write about the extremities of baseball, and fun to read about them. It’s why we fight over who gets to write about Aaron Judge, or Paul Skenes, or the White Sox. We aim to please.

But I also have a soft spot in my heart for the unremarkable. My very first week on this job, I wrote an ode to Cal Quantrill, declaring him “the averagest pitcher north of the Rio Grande.” Well I’ve been noodling on averageness. Who’s the anti-Judge or anti-Skenes? The anti-Jose Altuve? Who is the least remarkable player in baseball? Read the rest of this entry »

The A’s have been a bummer of a team to follow for a few years now. They’re moving to Vegas. The fans are protesting, but probably fighting a losing battle. They’re going to play in Sacramento, in withering heat, at a (really nice!) minor league stadium. The owner’s a walking punchline. They lost 112 games last year and then made almost no moves over the winter.

Something’s been brewing in the East Bay, though. Not in terms of a surprise playoff contender – they’re 47-68 on the year, and their playoff odds hit 0.0% on June 10. But nonetheless, this is a much better team than last year’s edition, and it’s mostly happened thanks to internal improvements. This version of the A’s looks downright frisky. Last year, playing them was basically a bye series; this year, they’ve almost matched their win total from ’23 and we’re in early August. How’d they do it? In one word, variance. In many words, well, read on and find out.
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This probably isn’t a problem for most people, but I’m plagued constantly by the memory of frustrating baseball arguments from days past. I probably get into these arguments more than most people, partially because of my (and I hope it doesn’t sound immodest to say this) vast knowledge of the sport, but mostly because I’ve lived most of my life in New Jersey, which his home to the most stubborn, tendentious people you’d ever have the misfortune of meeting.

One such argument took place probably close to 15 years ago, when I ruined what was supposed to be a relaxing Friday evening down the shore by getting into a shouting match over the issue of Alex Rodriguez vs. Derek Jeter. I preferred A-Rod, who would go on to finish his career with a slugging percentage more than 100 points higher than that of his Yankees teammate. I was arguing against someone whose case rested on Jeter being “more clutch.”

If you’re old enough to remember what “analytics bloggers” like me thought about that argument in the 2010s, you can understand my quickness to anger and probably imagine the colors my face turned. When the dust settled, Jeter — who, it turns out, was actually an exceptional hitter all along — did finish with a better career postseason wRC+ than A-Rod. But it was close: 121 to Jeter, 116 for Rodriguez. Read the rest of this entry »

With Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. both out for the season, the Braves haven’t been anywhere close to full strength for awhile, and the injury bug has continued to bite, with Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies sidelined for extended periods as well. In a dispiriting sequence involving the rotation, Max Fried returned from the injured list on Sunday (and was roughed up), then Reynaldo López landed on the IL. With so many absences, the cracks are beginning to show. Where the Braves occupied the top National League Wild Card spot for a good long time, they entered Tuesday having fallen into a three-way tie with the Diamondbacks and Padres.

The not-so-well-kept secret about the Braves is that since finishing April with a 19-9 record, they’ve gone just 41-42, and haven’t been more than a game over .500 in any calendar month. They went 13-14 in May, 14-13 in June, and 12-13 in July; so far, they’re 2-2 in August. Here’s how they now sit via the standings and our Playoff Odds:

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2024 season started absolutely terribly for the White Sox. After 25 games, the team’s record stood at 3-22, thanks in large part to an anemic offense that barely scored two runs per game. At the time – the Sox were 3-21 when I wrote the piece – I posed the question of whether the White Sox had a real shot at losing 120 games. I concluded that it was possible, with ZiPS projecting an 8.1% chance that Chicago would lose 120 games, better odds than even the Oakland A’s during their brutal 2023 season. That appeared to be the end of the story, at least until July.

After the awful start, things got slightly sunnier for the Sox for awhile. They swept the Tampa Bay Rays, a team expected to be a contender, and over the next not-so-nice 69 games, they went 24-45. While a .348 winning percentage isn’t in the same zip code as competence, that’s a 56-win pace, a level of lousiness that is fairly commonplace for the worst teams in the league, not the stuff of legend. But as the trade deadline approached, things again turned grim.

The White Sox won the first game of a doubleheader against the Twins on July 10, improving their record to 27-67. That date, almost a month ago, was the last time the White Sox won a game. The team’s 21 straight losses ties them with the 1988 Orioles for the second-most consecutive losses in modern baseball history (since 1901), just two losses behind the biggest loser, the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies. In some sense, the current one might be the most impressive losing streak, simply because the differences between the best and worst teams in baseball has shrunk over the years, making streaks like this more challenging to achieve.

And no, the White Sox haven’t been unlucky. Using a modified Pythagorean winning percentage (I use 1.83 for the exponent rather than two, as it’s been slightly more accurate historically), the White Sox have been the fourth-worst team since 1901.

If the season ended today, the White Sox would have the worst modified Pythagorean win percentage in more than 80 years, since the Philadelphia Phils in 1942. No, that’s not a typo; the Phillies officially shortened their team name for a season in 1942, apparently because they decided they didn’t want to have the same name as the line of cigars.

Problem is, the season doesn’t end today, so the Sox haven’t closed the deal yet. Regression toward the mean is a real thing, and one of the primary reasons why people overrate teams when things are going very well, and vice-versa. At the end of the day, a .235 winning percentage or the .272 in modified Pythag are likely – though not guaranteed – to go up over the remaining games. Projections represent a more stable description of a team’s ability, as well as one that’s generally more predictive of the future, and even with the diminished post-deadline roster, ZiPS sees the White Sox as “only” a .355 team, a 58-104 pace that represents merely a ho-hum level of awfulness.

But it’s also likely that given more games, these other terrible teams likely would have played better ball as well, for similar reasons. (Remember, Major League Baseball didn’t implement the current 162-game schedule until 1961.) While ZiPS projections date back to 2005, I have a quick little estimator for a team’s underlying ability that correlates fairly well with projections; it’s a mix of actual record, a team’s “wRC Pythagorean” — which uses wRC rather than runs score and allowed — and a model of regression toward .500. So I calculated the worst teams by this method and compared them to Chicago’s .356 estimate.

Whew, the White Sox once again fall to satisfyingly hurlicious levels as the worst team since the 1952 Pirates. And the thing is that for the Sox, a .355 record is lousy enough that they stand an excellent chance at losing 120 games anyway with the number of losses they already have banked. With 47 games to play, a .355 record would net them only 16.7 wins, leaving them at just under a 44-118 record, tantalizingly close to the 1962 Mets standard. And since we know that projections aren’t perfect, or at least maybe reality isn’t, that gives the White Sox ample room to continue to underperform and take the grand prize. Luckily, ZiPS can take care of that estimate.

Even with things projected not to go quite as badly, ZiPS gives the White Sox a slightly better than one-in-three chance (34%) to lose 120 games. And it could get even worse, with a 1% projected shot of finishing with a 35-127 record (or worse). That is championship brutality right there. The amusing thing is that this probability could’ve been even higher, but the White Sox didn’t trade Garrett Crochet or Luis Robert Jr. at the deadline, leaving the team encumbered with an additional 2-3 wins. If I remove Crochet and Robert Jr. in favor of their likely sub-replacement replacements, ZiPS projects the Pale Hose to have a 66% chance of losing at least 120 games!

I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call it a silver lining, but hope remains even for the most woeful teams in baseball. The last team to make a serious late run at 120 losses, the 2003 Tigers, improved quickly in the following seasons and made it to the World Series just three years later. Those 1952 Pirates were in the middle of a full rebuild helmed by legendary general manager Branch Rickey, hired in ’51, and though health problems forced him to step down in ’55, the organization assembled many of the key players who were on the World Series-winning team in ’60. And let’s not forget that seven years after losing 120 games, the Mets won the 1969 World Series. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t one to embrace change, but a disaster of epic proportions could, in theory, be the one thing that would prompt him to overhaul the organization. I wouldn’t say I’m terribly optimistic about this actually happening, but with an improved farm system – we now rank Chicago’s farm as the third best in baseball – and maybe a better front office assembled, the Sox could turn things around.

Whether the White Sox have a brighter future is something we’ll have to wait to find out. For now, enjoy these Sox as they reach new levels of ineptitude, because they may be the worst major league team you’ll ever see.

The smooth, lefty stroke has aged like fine wine through baseball history. Ben Rice is one of the latest examples of a left-handed hitter whose swing alone makes him fun to watch. Moving through the Yankees’ system as a bat-first catcher, Rice’s explosive minor league performance the last year forced his name into the big league conversation when first baseman Anthony Rizzo landed on the injured list with a fractured arm.

Even before Rizzo went down, Rice was mixing in more time at first base at Triple-A this season. That’s where the organizational need was, and his skills were not quite suited long-term at catcher anyway. As you’d expect, his defense at his new position has been a work in progress, and the same is true for the rest of his game. At the plate, Rice is experiencing the same ups and downs that most rookies do: Pitchers are figuring out how best to attack him, and he is learning how to make adjustments at the big league level.

With a 102 wRC+ over 142 plate appearances, Rice has been formidable thus far, but much of that is due to his hot streak that came along with his call-up. Across his first 19 games, he slashed .267/.348/.567 with five home runs, including the three against the Red Sox on July 6, and a 154 wRC+ over 69 plate appearances. During his 18 games (73 PA) since then, he’s batting .143/.247/.283 with two homers and a 53 wRC+. Despite that recent skid, ZiPS still believes in Rice, giving him a projected 110 wRC+ for the rest of the season. No projections come without uncertainty, of course, but there is a reason why ZiPS – and other projection systems – are confident the under-the-radar prospect can continue to be above average at the plate. Let’s get into it. Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks came through this weekend having won eight of their past 10 games, and after a bumpy start to the season, the Snakes are suddenly one of the most dangerous teams in the National League bracket. They hold a playoff spot even though their franchise player, Corbin Carroll, has hit like Eric Bruntlett this season, and despite having gotten nothing from the 2-3-4 slots in a rotation that was supposed to be a strength. Literally nothing in the case of Eduardo Rodriguez, who makes his season debut today.

So I was a little surprised when I went on Ketel Marte’s page and saw that we hadn’t written a standalone article about him on the main FanGraphs site this season. That’s our bad. Let me make up for it. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

By now, you’re surely aware that the Marlins were busy, to say the least, ahead of last week’s trade deadline. Miami dealt 10 players — Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell, Bryan De La Cruz, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, A.J. Puk, JT Chargois, Huascar Brazobán, and let’s not forget Luis Arraez, who was traded in early May — to teams looking to make the postseason, an admirable goal that the 2024 Marlins do not share. But that doesn’t mean the players who remain with Miami have nothing to play for the rest of the way. President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix is in full evaluation mode, with spots aplenty up for grabs in 2025. That might even include manager Skip Schumaker, who is in his lame duck year and could decide to skip out of town for a job — wait for it — skippering a better team next season.

Since the Marlins are looking ahead to next season, we’ll do the same thing here today. Let’s take stock of the players currently vying for spots on next year’s Opening Day roster.

Position Players

Even before all the trades, the Marlins lineup was anemic, ranking second-worst by wRC+ from the beginning of the season through July 26, the day before Chisholm was traded to the Yankees.

With the team doing so poorly in the aggregate, it’s unsurprising that there have been few individual bright spots. Looking around the diamond, the only positions that look pretty locked in for next year are shortstop, one of the corner infield spots, and one of the corner outfield spots. Xavier Edwards, who has excelled at short since Miami released Tim Anderson at the end of June, is batting .383/.456/.470 (163 wRC+) to go along with 12 stolen bases for the season. Slugger Jake Burger rebounded from a horrid start to put up a 166 wRC+ in July. He’s continued that production so far in August, and he’s currently bouncing between DH, first, and third. Lastly, Jesús Sánchez’s raw power remains tantalizing, but he’s always hovered between 10 points (in either direction) of being league average by wRC+. Still, there’s no reason not to give him more run as long as he’s on the squad.

As for the other spots, well, there are plenty of contenders! The quality of the personnel is up for debate, but the quantity is indisputable. Here are all the position players auditioning for roles on the 2025 roster, either down the stretch or come spring training:

• Catchers Nick Fortes, Ali Sánchez, Jhonny Pereda, and Agustin Ramirez
• Infielders Jonah Bride, Emmanuel Rivera, Tristan Gray, Troy Johnston, and Deyvison De Los Santos
• Outfielders Kyle Stowers, Cristian Pache, Dane Myers, Forrest Wall, Derek Hill, Victor Mesa, and Griffin Conine
• Infielder/outfielders Otto Lopez, Vidal Bruján, David Hensley, Connor Norby, Graham Pauley, and Javier Sanoja

That doesn’t even include any future trade acquisitions or buy-low free agent signings the Marlins could make during the offseason. Either way, they’ll have plenty of position players to choose from next season.

Starting Pitchers

Assuming the Marlins don’t make any more trades between now and Opening Day, this is the most straightforward group. Sandy Alcantara will be about 16 months removed from his Tommy John surgery when the 2025 season begins, so he should be good to go. He’ll definitely be joined by Jesús Luzardo, with only a small handful of arms fighting for the final three rotation spots, which will become two spots once Eury Pérez returns from his own Tommy John surgery later in the year.

The four big names in contention are healthy hurlers Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera, as well as the currently injured Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers. Weathers is out with a finger strain that will certainly be cleared up by next season, but he only just began playing catch late last month, leaving his status for the rest of this season unclear. Garrett’s flexor strain is an even scarier injury, but he should be OK for 2025 if his arm doesn’t require any surgical intervention.

With Alcantara’s innings perhaps being managed coming off of surgery, it’s possible that the Marlins could go with a six-man rotation. If that’s what they decide to do, recent trade acquisitions Adam Mazur and Robby Snelling, as well as Darren McCaughan, likely would be the running for that sixth spot.

Relief Pitchers

As with any team, the bullpen is going to have the most players contending for spots on next year’s roster. If they are still members of the organization on Opening Day, Calvin Faucher, Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, and Declan Cronin will have their spots locked in, but considering all four were bandied about as trade options prior to the deadline, I’d be surprised if all of them started spring training as members of Marlins.

Beyond those four, there’s an absolute cavalry of arms currently on the big-league roster, out hurt, or down on the farm. A loser of the rotation battle could find himself in the bullpen as well, leaving perhaps dozens of pitchers competing for a precious few spots once the team adds to the roster via further non-roster invites, waiver claims, or, yes, trades. In looking for the next Scott — basically, a guy who is acquired for relatively little and then turns into a Dude — Bendix surely will cast a wide net.

In looking ahead to 2025, there are a couple of key caveats to keep in mind. As mentioned before, there will be other trades; several of the players I listed above will be on other teams come February. There will also, of course, be injuries, opening even more spots.

Lastly, there will be a lot of procedural moves removing players from contention for roster spots before the offseason even begins in earnest. The 60-day IL is not usable during the offseason, and the Marlins currently have seven players on it. That means that between now and the onset of the offseason, Miami will have to free up seven 40-man spots, and because the team has no pending free agents to clear space, the organization will have to designate seven players for assignment. Some of those players will clear waivers and be invited to spring training with a chance to earn their spots back, but there will also be some who get claimed by other clubs or are outrighted to the minors and then exercise their right to free agency — which is an option for outrighted players with three-plus years of service time, those who have been outrighted previously, or both. All of this is to say that for as much as the Marlins’ roster has changed from Opening Day to now, there will be even more roster turnover between now and the start of the 2025 season.

On June 17, I wrote about the Mariners’ consistent success in overperforming their run differential and winning close games. The day after, they won their fourth game in a row, raising their record to 44-31 and their division win probability to 86.3%. Sitting 10 games above the second-place Astros, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seattle would claim the division crown. But six weeks later, the landscape looks far different. The Mariners blew that 10-game lead in just 24 games, the quickest that any team has ever surrendered such a large divisional lead, and the Astros even pulled ahead for a bit. The Mariners are now back in first, but just one game separates the two clubs.

The Mariners have gone 15-23 since their June 18 win that brought their division odds to an apex (12-23 if you take out a sweep of the White Sox, who are currently riding a 20-game losing streak). Some of this regression was to be expected – specifically, an offense that seemed to always find the timely hits stopped doing so. Seattle’s .388 BABIP in high-leverage situations fell to .225 over the past six weeks, and as small-sample good luck turned to small-sample bad luck, the team’s run scoring cratered. The Mariners have seen small improvements in low- and medium-leverage situations thanks to a recent offensive outburst — they’ve scored 6.3 runs per game over their nine games since they acquired outfielder Randy Arozarena — but it hasn’t been enough to fully right the ship. Their 94 wRC+ over their cold stretch and 95 wRC+ overall rank last among playoff hopefuls. Read the rest of this entry »