Congratulations to Cody Bellinger for winning the National League Rookie of the Year Award! While I’m actually writing this post before the award is announced, the case for Bellinger is pretty clear — no National League rookie had a bat like his while playing in so many games. As a bonus, Bellinger also recorded strong numbers on the basepaths and became one of 12 first basemen to add four or more games in center field since free agency began in 1974. Using a swing that the Dodgers helped him build, he hit the third-most home runs in a rookie season, ever. Bellinger had a top-20 rookie season over that time span in the National League and deserves his award for regular-season excellence.
But, as a member of the Baseball Writers Association, I had the benefit and honor of fulling out a full ballot for this award, not just one name. It’s down the ballot where things got difficult. It’s down the ballot where I began to wonder how much the future matters when believing the past. It’s down the ballot where I hemmed and hawed, considering the qualities of players as differently excellent as Luis Castillo, Paul DeJong, and Rhys Hoskins.
Zack Cozart is going to be an interesting free agent. I mean, at the major-league level, they’re all interesting free agents, but Cozart’s case is particularly intriguing, given his late-blooming power. Cozart seems like one of those guys who was built to take full advantage of a slightly livelier baseball, and given that he’s also a capable shortstop, he’s a valuable asset as long as his power exists. Cozart might not strike it super rich in the coming months, but he’ll get a healthy guarantee from someone. Teams like shortstops who can hit.
Speaking of which, kind of: Zach Vincej. I admit that this is going out on a limb. Not only was Vincej claimed by the Mariners off waivers from the Reds; the Mariners then outrighted Vincej to Triple-A, meaning he’s not on the 40-man roster. Vincej has been freely available, and I wouldn’t say there’s been a feeding frenzy. You probably haven’t heard of him. I hadn’t heard of him. Vincej is not, and never has been, a top prospect. He’s a 26-year-old with nine major-league at-bats.
But I haven’t been able to stop thinking about this. So I felt compelled to put this in writing. Vincej seems like a run-of-the-mill minor-league infielder. Yet he might be just the sort of player who’d most benefit from a promotion.
Periodically, I’ll be posting notes from in-person observations at Fall Instructional League and Arizona Fall League play. Each are essentially the scouting calendar’s dessert course, both in their timing and sometimes dubious value. I take bad fall looks with a large grain of salt as players are sometimes fatigued, disinterested, put in difficult situations purposefully so that they’ll fail, or some combination of these or other bits of important context. With that in mind here are links to past notes followed by this edition’s.
Cincinnati hosted Texas in the Reds’ instructional-league opener, and the game featured several pitchers with position-player backgrounds. The headliner was Hunter Greene, who sat 99-101 with a fastball spinning at a rate between 2200 and 2300 over two innings. He used both of his breaking balls quite frequently, first leaning on an inconsistent curveball in the low 80s and, later on, an upper-80s slider. The curveball flashed above average but its depth and bite varied. Greene’s slider was short and fringey, though he threw both breakers for strikes multiple times. His fastball command was less consistent, however, and Greene was hit hard (twice quite literally, by two second-inning comebackers), surrendering six runs.
Greene was followed by righty Wyatt Strahan, a 24-year-old reliever who hasn’t gotten out of A-ball yet, mostly due to injury. He was up to 96 on Monday with a plus slider and violent delivery. If he can stay healthy, he’s a potential bullpen contributor.
Among those on the mound for Texas were former position players James Jones and Jairo Beras. Jones was a two-way player on his high-school team in Brooklyn and again at Long Island University. The Mariners drafted him in the 2009 draft’s fourth round and he made the majors as a speed-first outfielder in 2014, stealing 27 bases in 28 attempts that year. Sent to Texas as part of the 2015 Leonys Martin trade, Jones continued toiling away at Triple-A through much of 2016 without offensive success and began to transition to pitching late last year. He blew out after a few pitching appearances late in 2016 and needed Tommy John surgery.
Jones is now back on the mound and pitching with interesting stuff, sitting 92-94 with a bit of late wiggle and a fringey curveball and changeup. His lower arm slot allows right-handed hitters to see the ball early and they have teed off on Jones in two looks I’ve had at him this fall.
Though it may not be Jones himself, this is what I think a realistic two-way player looks like, someone who can competently play a niche role on both sides of the ball. In Jones’ case, that means getting lefties out as a bullpen arm while also acting as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. The chances of such a creature existing at all would be aided by roster expansion, something December’s CBA negotiations nearly yielded.
Beras sat 94-96 with an average slider. He isn’t as athletic as Jones but throws hard and is new to pitching. Both conversion arms are longshots but have major-league-caliber arms that need late-career refinement.
9/26
Tuesday, the Dodgers and White Sox had simultaneous home instructional-league games at Camelback Ranch for the only time this fall. Their fields are close enough to one another that one can stroll back and forth between games. I began on the Dodgers’ side, where they took on Cincinnati.
Reds third-rounder Jacob Heatherly sat 90-92 and commanded that pitch as well as his average curveball and changeup. He lacks any physical projection and, except for perhaps a bit of breaking-ball and changeup progression from pro reps and instruction, the cement is largely dry on his stuff. Realistically, Heatherly projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter, but his ceiling will be dictated by the level of command he’s able to develop. He’s advanced in that regard and could move quickly. Heatherly, who turned 19 in May, signed for $1 million.
SS Jeter Downs, the Reds’ comp-round pick from June, has also been impressive. Downs sprays hard contact to all fields and has shown enough arm strength to stay on the left side of the infield. I’ve yet to see his range and athleticism challenged, but what I’ve seen is pretty good.
Dodgers 17-year-old LHP Robinson Ortiz was 90-93 with bat-missing life and feel for a breaking ball that flashed above average. He’s listed at 6-foot-4 on the instructional-league roster but he’s closer to an even 6-foot. Though short, Ortiz is well built and has a strong, voluptuous lower half. His arm action is a bit long, but I generally like his delivery and athleticism enough to project him as a starter. Well-built 17-year-olds with good fastballs and breaking-ball feel are typically being talked about as top-50 draft picks, even if they’re a little short.
Want more height/weight fun? RHP Alfredo Tavarez was listed at 6-foot-5, 190 this year but is listed close to 250 on the instructional-league roster and he’s every bit of that. He put up big numbers in the AZL, striking out 47 hitters in 30 innings, but only sits in the upper 80s with his fastball. Tavarez does have a potential plus breaking ball but will need to drastically improve his command if he’s to survive with this kind of velocity.
On the White Sox side, Chicago first-round 3B Jake Burger had issues with throwing accuracy but took good at-bats and made some loud contact. I remain skeptical of his chances of staying at third base but do think he’ll hit. I recorded multiple below-average pop times from C Zack Collins, all in the 2.05-2.10 range. Like Burger, though, he takes great at-bats, rarely offering at pitches off the plate and showing easy pull power.
In 2015, the Reds finally commenced their transition from contender to rebuilder. During that season, the club began handing playing time to a number of young players, with rookie pitchers accounting for more than two-thirds of the team’s starts. Last season, they followed up that effort with another round of rookie pitchers — a group which, in this case, accounted for one-third of Cincinnati’s starts. As I noted at the beginning of the season, the Reds became just one of a handful of clubs in history to allocate at least half of their starts to rookies in one year and then to follow up that effort by starting rookies in another 50 games the next season.
It’s my duty to inform you that the Reds are at it again — and this time, they’ve left all the other franchises in the dust.
For a little league-wide perspective, here’s the number of rookie starters each team has used over the past three seasons. If a pitcher was a rookie in 2016 but didn’t exhaust his eligibility and pitched again in 2017, that’s counted just once in the numbers below.
Every team that ever trades is rolling the dice. Nothing in baseball has ever been certain, and so to make a trade is to gamble. But the gamble, typically, is that the player being traded for will continue to perform as he has. At least, this is how it is with veterans. The Astros gambled that Justin Verlander would keep on pitching like Justin Verlander. The Angels gambled that Justin Upton would keep on hitting like Justin Upton. The Yankees gambled that Sonny Gray would keep on pitching like Sonny Gray. Over any full season, you never know what a player’s going to do. When you narrow to just a few months, the volatility only increases.
There’s nothing to be done about that kind of gamble. You can’t make sample-based uncertainty certain. You just hope a player’s talent level will shine through. But more rarely, a team will make a different kind of gamble. A gamble on a player the team thinks it can fix. Needless to say, the teams aren’t always right. Every team already tries to get the most out of the players it has. Yet the Dodgers, in July, thought they saw something in Tony Cingrani, and so far, they’re looking brilliant. Nobody’s noticed, but Cingrani’s kicked it up.
Eugenio Suarez can hit the sinker. He’s been able to do it his whole life. And, generally speaking, that means he shouldn’t be able to hit the four-seamer. Or, at least not hit it as well, I mean. That’s typically how it goes, one or the other. It has to do with swing paths and approaches, mostly.
But Suarez has pulled off a rare feat this year. He’s been hitting the four-seamer, too. And he’s improved his success against that pitch by improving something other than his swing.
With an .878 lifetime OPS against sinkers, Suarez ranks in the top quartile among the more than 600 players who’ve seen 500-plus sinkers in the PITCHf/x era. His .797 OPS against four-seamers makes him only average against that pitch, though.
In Sunday’s game against the Pirates, Joey Votto batted five times, without recording an official at-bat. He drew five walks, none of which were intentional. It wasn’t actually the only time Votto has drawn five walks in a game in his career. It wasn’t actually the only time a player has drawn five walks in a game this season. And it didn’t actually tie a single-game walk record, thanks to Jimmie Foxx. Five walks in five trips is rare and notable. This, though — this is what really put the Votto game over the top.
If Votto bats again, record for 5 PA or fewer is 43 pitches seen. D’Angelo Jimenez, 9/7/2001
Joey Votto batted five times and walked five times while drawing 43 pitches. Now, most articles don’t want to begin by comparing some current player to D’Angelo Jimenez. That’s not exactly a one-way ticket to Traffictopia. But pitch-by-pitch data has existed for nearly three decades. Votto just equaled a modern-day record while notching a four-digit OBP. For this one day, more than any other, Joey Votto was exhausting.
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Michael Hermosillo, OF, Los Angeles AL (Profile) Level: Triple-A Age: 22 Org Rank: 14 Top 100: NR Line: 3-for-4, 2 HR, BB
Notes
Hermosillo, a 28th rounder in 2013, was a two-sport high schooler committed to play football at Illinois, but he was coaxed into pro ball by a $100,000 signing bonus. He opened up his stance a bit last year and hit fairly well during an injury-shortened regular season before heading to the Arizona Fall League, where his physical tools measured up nicely compared to some of baseball’s better prospects.
This year, Hermosillo’s in-box footwork has again been tweaked, and he’s deploying a slower, more committed leg kick. Hitters who have deployed a leg kick like this in recent years have noted that it not only unlocks more pull-side power but also improves their timing. This is what seems to have happened for Hermosillo, who’s now more consistent and comfortable in the batter’s box than he was last season. He’s patient, athletic, and might do enough offensive damage to project in more than just a bench outfield role if these changes have truly unlocked previously dormant physical ability.
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Pedro Avila, RHP, San Diego (Profile) Level: Low-A Age: 20 Org Rank: NR Top 100: NR Line: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 R, 13 K
Notes
This was Avila’s fifth double-digit strikeout game this year and his second in the last three starts, as he K’d 18 at Great Lakes on August 8th. A stocky 5-foot-11, Avila doesn’t have a huge fastball, sitting mostly 91-93 and dipping just beneath that from the stretch, but he frequently demonstrates pinpoint command of it, working to both his arm and glove sides. That gets Avila ahead in the count and sets up his deep-diving curveball, which bites enough to miss bats in the strike zone as well as below it. He also flashes a plus changeup. Avila began the year in High-A and struggled to throw strikes (but not miss bats) there for nine starts before a demotion. He has 102 strikeouts in 74.2 innings since then. Avila was acquired during Winter Meetings from Washington in exchange for Derek Norris.
Tucker Barnhart has quietly emerged as one of the better backstops in baseball. He leads MLB catchers in Defensive Runs Saved (14) and fielding percentage (.999), and he’s thrown out 22 of 50 runners attempting to steal. He’s coming around with the bat, as well. The switch-hitter is slashing a solid .271/.340/.398. Lauded for his leadership, Barnhart is becoming an increasingly vital part of the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuild.
A 10th-round pick in 2009 out of an Indiana high school, the glove-first Brownsburg native doggedly worked his way up through the Reds minor-league system. And while he’s still learning in his third full big-league season, he’s also a mentor. Of the 25 pitchers to toe the rubber for Cincinnati this season, 13 are rookies, and a baker’s dozen are younger than his 26 years.
Barnhart discussed his formative years at the position, and his hard-nosed-yet-thoughtful approach, a few weeks ago.
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Barnhart on his infield background: “I caught growing up, but I wasn’t necessarily a catcher first. Before my sophomore year of high school it was probably 50-50 between catching and the infield. I played a lot of middle infield, and I truly attribute some of the success I’ve had behind the plate to having done that. Being able to turn double plays, the footwork, the exchange… all of that helped with what I do behind the plate.
