Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Detroit Tigers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

55 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded 46 recorded in 29 pro innings.

Scouting Report
Manning is the prototypical prep righty. He has tremendous size, throws hard, is a terrific athlete (he was committed to Loyola Marymount to play baseball and basketball) with great bloodlines (his father played in the NBA) and has exhibited a nascent feel for a potentially dominant curveball. Any high-school pitcher cooking with that list of ingredients is a slam-dunk first-round pick, and Manning was clearly the second-best high-school righty in the 2016 draft.

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After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Chicago NL / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Since 2009, only three different players have led Detroit batters by WAR: Miguel Cabrera (2009-13), Ian Kinsler (2014, -16), and J.D. Martinez (2015). According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, here are the probable top-three Tigers batters by WAR in 2017: Miguel Cabrera (583 PA, 4.0 zWAR), Ian Kinsler (631, 3.9), and J.D. Martinez (590, 3.1). That is, one finds, the precise same collection of players.

What does that say about a club generally? About this club specifically? Nothing definitive. That said, Detroit has developed a reputation in recent years for placing the majority of their eggs into expensive, aging baskets, and then the remainder of the eggs into whatever baskets happen to be lying around. The construction of the current roster — which pairs some well-compensated veterans like Cabrera and Kinsler with a replacement-level center-field platoon of Tyler Collins (463, 0.0) and JaCoby Jones (458, -0.1) — would appear to carry on that tradition.

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In a stunning development, the results of a BBWAA awards vote have generated massive controversy in the baseball world. Who could have seen that coming? A shocker to be sure!

Despite failing to receive the most first-place votes, Rick Porcello has edged out Justin Verlander to win the American League Cy Young Award. The full results of the balloting can be found here. Porcello beat Verlander by just five points, 137 to 132. That’s as tight a race as you’re going to see. It was largely due to the fact that while Verlander got 14 of the 30 possible first-place votes, Porcello received 18 second-place votes, and Verlander was left entirely off of two ballots.

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These days, some people are hard at work trying to understand one another. As votes rolled in and results were released, segments of the population were taken aback. In certain corners, the mood has been celebratory, triumphant. Elsewhere there has been fear, disappointment, and, more than anything else, confusion. “How could anyone make that choice?” many have wailed. “How could so many people overlook all the evidence?” I won’t pretend to be more than I am. I know that I am but a single man in a rising, roiling ocean of souls. But I can try to defend at least my own decision. For 2016 American League Rookie of the Year, I voted for Michael Fulmer ahead of Gary Sanchez.

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In baseball, it may not be possible to have too much of a good thing when it comes to quantity of elite-level players. The sport is, almost by definition, at its best when great players face off against one another. If there’s a problem with a strong collection of elite talent, though, it’s that truly great players can get overlooked. It’s hard to distinguish oneself when surrounded by an array of other distinguished performances.

A look at the WAR leaderboard from the American League this past season reveals that four second basemen finished among the top 11 overall performers in the league by this metric.

We know MVP finalist Jose Altuve was outstanding and we know Robinson Cano had an absolutely tremendous season in Seattle. Slightly less heralded was the overall performance of the Twins’ Brian Dozier, although his 28 homers in the second half still garnered him plenty of attention. But what about the fourth second baseman on the list? Did we pay enough attention to Ian Kinsler this year?

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The Detroit Tigers find themselves at a crossroads as this offseason begins. With players like Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander — stars who can still contribute but who are on the wrong side of 30 — the Tigers’ window for contention with this group is closing. Ian Kinsler is another player who’s bound to experience age-related decline. Meanwhile, outfielder J.D. Martinez — one of the best hitters in the game over the past three years — is a free agent after 2017. All in all, it’s difficult to see this team contending beyond next year without an overhaul. Given those constraints, it makes a lot of sense to go all in next year. The aging core’s decline, along with the addition of some new free-agent signings, should make the team decent once again; a little more help would make them contenders.

However, Detroit’s practice of running with the big markets in terms of payroll and addressing weaknesses through free agency might be coming to an end. Based on what Buster Olney wrote last month, it appears as though, while everyone is technically available, that the Tigers aren’t prepared for a full rebuild. Here are some of Olney’s comments as they relate to Verlander:

But remember, the Tigers don’t want a full-blown teardown. They want to try to win next season, and Verlander was their best pitcher in 2016. (And yes, he can block any trade, and the future Hall of Famer could ask any interested team to guarantee his $22 million vesting option for 2020.)

The Tigers aren’t likely to make the playoffs next year by only half-committing to their roster, and they already have around $175 million in contract obligations. Moving Ian Kinsler or J.D. Martinez makes them worse in 2017, and if a larger and larger percentage of their payroll is allocated to declining players like Miguel Cabrera, the club isn’t any more likely to contend in 2018 and beyond. If they aren’t going all in next year — and it appears they aren’t — the quickest route to the playoffs is to tear it all down. To do that, the team needs to move Miguel Cabrera, and that might best be done by packaging him with Justin Verlander.

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Detroit acquired RHP prospect Victor Alcantara (video from Fall League here) from Anaheim last night in exchange for OF Cameron Maybin. Alcantara has been pitching for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League, and I’ve seen him a few times over the past several weeks.

Alcantara has mostly been 91-95 with sinking arm-side movement. His fastball command is well below average, a 30 on the 20-80 scale for me, and his delivery is full of effort and violent moving parts. His mid-80s slider is consistently above average and features more length than is usual for a slider that hard. I’ve seen some changeups as well, mostly in the 86-87 mph range, but the best one I’ve seen has been a 40 on the scale.

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As a national writer, come playoff time, you end up with a skewed perspective. Just about all of your attention is concentrated on the playoffs, and so nearly all you’re writing about has to do with the playoffs. The easy assumption is that everyone out there is in the same boat, following along just like you are, but baseball is a game of regional interest, and the majority of teams quit after game 162. And then teams continue to drop out every week, until there are two, until there is one. The playoffs last for a month, and as a writer, they’re exhausting. For so many fans, though, that very same month is boring. You’re just waiting for the playoffs to end. Waiting so baseball can get on with things.

When I chatted during the postseason, I’d always get questions about when the offseason would begin. I’d get questions about free agents and trade rumors, even though I’ve been mostly prepared to talk about the Cubs and the Indians. So many of you have been looking ahead. So many of you have wanted to see what lies beyond, when all the games are over.

All the games are over. Cameron Maybin has been traded. The offseason is here. Welcome back.

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Eric Longenhagen is publishing brief, informal notes from his looks at the prospects of the Arizona Fall League and, for the moment, the Fall Instructional League. Find all editions here.

Braves 2B Travis Demeritte has looked tremendous at second base this fall. Not only has he made several acrobatic plays but he’s handled some bad hops and sucked up errant throws on steal attempts as well. While his hands remain somewhat rough, Demeritte’s range and athleticism have forced me to reckon with the idea of plus-plus defense at second base — as well as to remember if I’ve ever put a 7 on a second baseman’s glove before. I don’t think I have, and I suppose it’s worth asking if such a thing even exists, as one might wonder why a 70 or 80 glove at second base couldn’t play shortstop in some capacity. I think the right concoction of skills (chiefly, great range and actions but a poor arm) can churn out a plus-plus defender there. I’d cite Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia, and Chase Utley as examples from the last eight or 10 years. It’d be aggressive to put a future 7 on Demeritte’s glove right now because his hands and arm accuracy are too inconsistent, but those are things that could be polished up with time.

Tigers RHP Spencer Turnbull was up to 94 and mixed in five different pitches last night. Nothing was plus and Turnbull doesn’t have especially good command but I liked how he and Brewers C Jake Nottingham sequenced hitters and how to and that Turnbull was willing to pitch backwards and give hitters different looks each at-bat. He and Rays RHP Brent Honeywell have the deepest repertoires I’ve seen so far in Fall League.

Giants righty Chris Stratton sat 89-92 last night with an average mid-80s slider that is good enough to miss bats if he locates it, and last night he did. I think the changeup is average, as well, while Stratton’s curveball is a tick below but a useful change of pace early in counts. He looks like a back-end starter.

Quite a few defenders got to air it out last night. Here are some grades I put on guys’ arms:

Dawel Lugo, 3B, ARI: 6

Miguel Andujar, 3B, NYY: 6

Pat Valaika, INF, COL: 5

Gavin Cecchini, INF, NYM: 45

Christin Stewart, OF, DET: 4

Angels CF Michael Hermosillo, who was committed to Illinois to play running back before signing with Anaheim after the 2013 draft, displayed tremendous range in center field last night. He looks erratic at the plate but he hit well at Burlington and Inland Empire this year and is an obvious late-bloomer follow as a two-sport prospect from a cold weather state.

To be clear, there are three postings here.

Position: Detroit Tigers Manager, Baseball Analytics

Location: Detroit
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