Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 5/7/2020

Craig Edwards: Going to let the queue get a little more full as I finish lunch and get started shortly.

Craig Edwards: Did some historical stuff over the past week. Here’s me on Mike Trout’s offense compared to the greats. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-and-the-greatest-offensive-deca…

Craig Edwards: Here’s a similar thing on Clayton Kershaw. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/clayton-kershaw-and-the-greatest-decades-i…

Craig Edwards: I’m still asking for poll answers regarding the start of the season. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-optimistic-are-you-that-the-2020-seaso…

Craig Edwards: And here’s something on the potential of a universal DH this year. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nl-teams-stand-to-lose-out-if-theres-a-uni…

Craig Edwards: Let’s get rolling.

TC: Which KBO team should we be rooting for and why is it the SK Wyverns?

Craig Edwards: Creating a fandom out of thin air as an adult is a pretty interesting phenomenon. I don’t think there are any wrong answers. Having a mascot as a two-legged winged dragon with a barbed tail is a pretty good start.

Craig Edwards: Imagine picking the Giants as your favorite team in 2015 or the Tigers a few years ago. Teams go up and down and one of the great parts of fandom is riding those waves up and down.

Craig Edwards: Another interesting aspect of KBO fandom is access. Aren’t we all more likely to become fans of teams and players we are able to see on tv. Getting a lot of Red Sox-Yankees games on national television is a perpetuating cycle. They are popular so they get good ratings, but then people see them more and are more likely to follow the team and players helping their popularity even more.

daymans: What’s your favorite stadium that is no longer used and why do you like it?

Craig Edwards: Growing up in the Midwest, I remember old Busch and the Metrodome and even County Stadium. In high school, I saw an Expos game in Montreal and went back a few years ago to see one of the preseason games there which was a lot of fun. Personal bias is just going to make the answer old Busch.

Laura: Do you have a favorite KBO team yet?

Craig Edwards: I do not, though I think Jay did a good job summing up the teams to make a somewhat informed decision. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-thumbnail-guide-to-the-kbos-2020-season/

Jonathan: What’s your take on Jake Rogers? He was once called the best defensive catching prospect in recent memory but only received a 60 future arm and glove

Craig Edwards: This is one of those cases where the additions to the Board and filtering by tool is pretty useful and cool, imo. Rogers has a future 60 on both fielding and arm. If I go to the Board and pick catchers, then filter by fielding of at least 60, there are only seven catchers there and only Bart and Rutschman have a higher grade than Rogers. You can filter by arm, too and see only five catchers with Rogers. A future 60 at the catcher position is actually a pretty high grade. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa…

JoJo: Is Michael Chavis anything more than a low average, high K hacker with some pop?

Craig Edwards: I think some pop sells him a little short as there’s a lot of power there, but the average and strikeouts are on point.

Trevor: When were you guys going to start that analytics classroom thing?

Craig Edwards: The second installment just went up today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-prep-wins-runs-and-pythagoras/

Craig Edwards: Here’s the first one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-prep-build-your-own-team-hall-of…

Curtis: If you constructed a lineup and staff consisting of a team of Under 30yo vs. 30yo and over, who wins a 7 game series?

Craig Edwards: A seven-game series might still be a tossup, but it would be pretty difficult to field a lineup of 30+ players that could come close to the younger group. On the rotation-side the 30+ group is going to have the advantage, but Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, and Jack Flaherty are still going to keep the younger team in the game, particularly against that relatively weaker lineup. Just look at the age on the leaderboards last season on the position player side. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y…

Lernered: So the Corbin contract looks good, the Scherzer contract was great. Fine. Will the Nats regret the Strasburg contract?

Craig Edwards: I don’t know about regret, but they are unlikely to have as much success over the next half dozen seasons than they had over the past six years or so. I would have paid more for Rendon than I would have for Strasburg so how Rendon plays might also factor in to how the Strasburg deal is viewed. Whether the Strasburg deal ends up looking bad at the end might have a lot more to do with the Nationals needing to beef up their future roster.

WARrules: I’m attempting to do some research on how the implementation of robo-umps will affect catcher’s value. However, I can’t find anywhere how to exactly calculate fielding WAR for catchers. I know it is FRM + something, but I don’t know what the other values are or where to find them. Thanks a lot!

Craig Edwards: It’s basically just caught stealing and allowed steals and you can find those values in our seasonal constants page. https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

Craig Edwards: No matter how many advances we make, catcher defense is still pretty tough to figure out relative to the rest of the positions because of how much is involved in the position.

WARrules: Does Fangraphs also factor in a rCERA-like stat for catcher fielding WAR?

Craig Edwards: It is not part of FanGraphs WAR though you can find those values on the player pages and on our leaderboards. Part of the difficulty with catching defense is every run you give to catchers for their performance, you have to take away from the pitcher and game-calling is going to vary greatly between individual pitchers and catchers so quantifying those in a way that makes sense can be difficult.

Timbo: Do you trust in Snell’s elbow?

Craig Edwards: Do you trust any pitcher’s elbow? You hope that the time off gives him more time to get strong, but until you actually see him perform, it’s sort of up in the air. I worry for a lot of pitcher’s elbows with all this time off combined with a potentially shortened season.

MB: Why do park factors on the Guts page only run through 2018? Is there a comparison element between seasons involved that puts off the inclusion of 2019 factors until part or all of 2020 has been played?

Craig Edwards: No, I think it just hasn’t been updated for that page. The park factors take into account five years of data so the 2019 park factors aren’t totally completed until after the season.

Rocco: At similar cost, please rank:  Kershaw, Yu, Greinke?   Thanks

Craig Edwards: I think you got the order correct.

Guest: How do you anticipate Clase’s service time will be handled in light of his suspension?

Craig Edwards: That depends on how many games the season lasts and what he looks like right before the season ends. He’s only got 59 days of service time so he isn’t likely to break one year by the end of this season no matter. If he looks like he can help, I’m sure Cleveland will bring him right back into games.

Curious: If you could name one team that is hurt the least from no season played, who would it be?

Craig Edwards: I think that’s decent phrasing because every team is hurt. In terms of getting hurt the least, maybe Miami because they were going to be bad, not draw many fans, and have a terrible tv contract. You could argue the Giants because they need to move forward, but they still have a lot of fans and some decent players to watch.

mike: has to be the red sox are hurt least with no season, since the mookie deal ends up being very much in their favor

Craig Edwards: Except the whole reason for the Mookie deal was to get under the competitive balance tax in order to save money in the future and they don’t get under if no season is played. Of course, in order to get those savings, they were going to have spend big in 2021, which they probably aren’t going to do. If you go by most of the reasons stated for trading Betts, they can’t actually fulfill a lot of the goals. Plus, they miss out on two prime years from Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, two of the very best players in the game. Any team that might have competed this year, and that includes the Red Sox, can’t be the team hurt least.

Smiling Politely: Before this season was disrupted, were there any idiosyncratic predictions or outcomes you were curious to watch develop?

Craig Edwards: I really wanted to see how the Astros season was going to play out. Even if they still play, a lot of the intrigue there has evaporated.

Craig Edwards: On another note, it’s hard to look back and see emerging storylines that are interesting to follow because right now, I just want baseball back.

Matt Carpenter: Has there been any disclosure on how service time will work assuming a truncated season happens? Prorated?

Craig Edwards: It will be prorated based on the number of games played by teams. If a normal season is 186 days and 100 games are played and you are in the majors for half the season, you should get 93 days of service time.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Oh, and PSA: ESPN2 is now reairing Dinos vs Lions for those of us with sleep schedules.

Smiling Politely: Thanks chatting, Craig–I wish I had more interesting questions, but the lack hurts. I enjoyed the DH column and was speculating on some other ways of utilizing it in a short/weird season. It made me wonder how MLB will deal with injuries, 40 man roster mgmt, trades, etc…what do you think?

Craig Edwards: I think expanded rosters are likely, for at least the start of the season and how teams deal with pitching staffs, in particular, is going to be something worth watching. That’s especially true if there are going to be a decent number of doubleheaders. Pitching depth and figuring out the best way to use it over is going to be very important.

Tatum: Thoughts on Brantleys late season struggles?

Craig Edwards: I wouldn’t make too much of it. It’s a long season and Brantley doesn’t have a huge track record for playing that much. He’s almost 33 and so he probably won’t be as good this year as he was last year, but he should still be a solid hitter.

Curtis: Pitchers batting makes no sense. The craft of batting for those who employ it full time is hard enough.  Pitching is hard enough.  The statistics show pitchers are mostly terrible at batting. Those that are better than terrible COULD pinch hit.  Some pinch run.  Putting pitchers in a batting spot often forces their removal as “batting strategy”, not because they’re struggling at pitching in that game.  A pitcher’s value and worth is tied to the performance on the mound.  Let them pursue that greatness.  Universal DH from here on out.  You can still double switch or any strategy you want.

Craig Edwards: I agree.

Craig Edwards: That’s going to do it for me today. Thanks for all your questions and don’t forget to fill out our survey. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-optimistic-are-you-that-the-2020-seaso…

Craig Edwards: I’ll take one more.

Aspiring: I’m in high school right now, but plan on going to college for statistics. My ultimate dream is to get a job with a baseball team in the R&D department and use my statistical skills in that way. What advice can you give me for how I can realize this dream?

Craig Edwards: I would say to make sure you don’t limit yourself and that you stay curious. Ask yourself questions and then find the answers. If you find you lose that curiosity when it comes to statistics or baseball, find something else. You have a ton of options and it’s important to find something that keeps you going and keeps your brain active.

Craig Edwards: Okay, that’s it.