FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 12–18

A bunch of teams have gone streaking up the standings and in these rankings this week, with the Giants making their first appearance in the top five and the Rays taking back the top spot from the Rangers.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Neither the Rays or the Rangers had particularly good weeks last week; Tampa Bay split a series with an inspired A’s ballclub and then lost a series to the Padres, and Texas lost a big four-game series to the Angels before bouncing back against the Blue Jays over the weekend. Despite their excellent play this season, neither team has created much separation in their respective division races. The AL East has been competitive all season long, but the Rangers have let the Angels back into the AL West picture with that series loss.

After a slow start to the season, the Giants have caught on fire this month, winning 11 of their 15 games in June. They just completed a three-game sweep of the Dodgers over the weekend in which they outscored Los Angeles 29–8, leapfrogging them in the NL West standings. Things have been going so well that Brandon Crawford was finally able to make his debut as a pitcher to close out a blowout win. San Francisco has scored more than six runs per game over the last few weeks, and the pitching staff has continued to be solid. The team will have to navigate injuries to Alex Cobb and Mitch Haniger, though; both of them will be sidelined for the foreseeable future.

The Diamondbacks were slowed down by the red-hot Phillies last week but got back on track with a series win against the Guardians over the weekend. Their recent ups-and-downs have exposed the weaknesses on their roster: they allowed double-digit runs in two of their losses last week, with both games started by Zach Davies, but just 13 runs total in the other four. The pitching staff will need some help if Arizona wants to maintain its lead in the NL West, though the offense seems like it’s firing on all cylinders with Corbin Carroll leading the way. The D-Backs will have to contend with a wonky schedule this week with three games in Milwaukee, a makeup game in Washington on Thursday, and then a cross-country flight to San Francisco for their weekend series.

After losing their first series of the month to the Astros, the Angels have gone on a rampage, winning four straight series including a big four-game matchup with the Rangers last week. It’s all thanks to Shohei Ohtani, who’s in the midst of a 15-game hitting streak and blasted six home runs last week — and he shut down the high-powered Rangers offense in his lone start. Los Angeles has passed the faltering Astros in the AL West standings and is just 4.5 games back of Texas.

The Padres have been showing some life recently as well, winning both their series last week, including a hard-fought one against the Rays over the weekend. Fernando Tatis Jr. seems to have put his early struggles behind him; he’s collected 24 hits this month, with 15 of them going for extra-bases, all while playing fantastic defense in right field. San Diego will head to San Francisco for a big four-game series to start this week, hoping to slow down the Giants.

The Phillies won their sixth straight game on Sunday, taking three of four from the Diamondbacks and sweeping the A’s. The calendar has turned to June, so Kyle Schwarber has started to heat up, but he’s not the only one carrying the load. Nick Castellanos is mashing again, J.T. Realmuto hit for the cycle in Philadelphia’s only loss last week, and Trea Turner finally looks like he’s breaking out of his season-long slump. Back-to-back series against the Braves and Mets this week provide the Phillies with a prime opportunity to move up the standings.

The Marlins’ recent hot streak had a slight hiccup in Seattle last week, but they got right back to their winning ways with a sweep of the Nationals over the weekend. They’re currently the top Wild Card team in the National League and have been one of the most surprising teams in the majors this year. Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez have been key contributors after Jazz Chisholm Jr. went down with his toe injury, and Eury Pérez has been solid in his first taste of the big leagues.

The Brewers are barely clinging to their lead in the NL Central, holding off the surging Reds, and did their part to create some separation in the division by sweeping the Pirates over the weekend. Christian Yelich has quietly put together a solid season, though the rest of their lineup has continued to struggle to support him. Their pitching staff, meanwhile, has been decimated by injuries, but they’re getting some surprising contributions from Julio Teheran and Colin Rea, of all pitchers. It feels foolish to think that those reclamation projects will continue to pitch as well as they have, which means the division feels totally up in the air.

The Reds would love nothing more than to take advantage of a weak division and sneak into the playoffs a year after kicking off their rebuilding cycle. At this rate, they just might do it. They won their eighth straight game on Sunday, sweeping the Astros in Houston in a very impressive display of their young talent. They’ve won 16 of their last 22 games and have pushed their record over .500 for the first time since 2021.

The Mets have continued to slide down the standings after splitting a two-game, cross-town series with the Yankees and losing two of three to the Cardinals. They haven’t won a series this month and are now 5.5 games out of a playoff spot in the Wild Card race and 12.5 back in their division. Some good news amidst all that: Pete Alonso, who was hit on the wrist with a pitch last weekend, is off the IL after a minimum stay on the shelf.

For a brief moment last week, the Royals had a worse record than the A’s. They snapped a 10-game losing streak on Saturday with a walk-off win against the Angels and slipped ahead of Oakland at the bottom of the standings. Sadly, their best hitter, Vinnie Pasquantino, tore his labrum in his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season. With Bobby Witt Jr. struggling in his second season and absolutely no improvement to the pitching staff, the Royals truly are directionless less than a year after firing long-time general manager Dayton Moore.

While the reverse boycott might not have any tangible effect on John Fisher’s attempt to move the A’s to Las Vegas — legislation backing the public financing of a new stadium was finally approved last week — it was a stark reminder of the lively community losing a team in Oakland. And just to press salt in the wounds of those fans, Rob Manfred inserted himself into the story later in the week, reasserting the anti-community, money-first approach to baseball that got Oakland into this mess in the first place.

…