FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 1–7

Last week’s darlings are this week’s dogs, as the Pirates and Orioles slide down in the rankings. The Rays continue to run roughshod over the American League, and the Braves have started to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in the National League.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays keep chugging along atop the American League standings with five wins in six games last week, steamrolling the Pirates and winning a hard-fought series against the Yankees over the weekend. So far, they’re outpacing the 2001 Mariners and are showing no signs of letting up on the gas. Even if they come back down to Earth a bit this summer, these banked wins give them a huge margin over their AL East competitors.

The Braves also continue to cruise, with six wins in eight games last week: a split doubleheader against the Mets, a sweep of the Marlins, and a series win over the Orioles. Marquee offseason acquisition Sean Murphy is crushing the ball, leading an offense that’s scored the second most runs in the NL. Their schedule doesn’t let up either; they’ve got dates with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Dodgers, and Phillies lined up over the next three weeks.

The Dodgers raced up the standings last week with an emphatic sweep of the Phillies, scoring 36 runs in three games, then won a thrilling three-game set against the Padres over the weekend, including a dramatic extra-innings victory on Sunday night. Those two NL West powerhouses are set to face each other again this weekend in Los Angeles, providing the Dodgers another opportunity to put some distance between them and San Diego in their division.

The Pirates endured a rough week, losing all six of their games to some tough competition. An offense that had been one of the best in the majors was completely shut down, scoring just seven runs total. They’re still leading the NL Central, though the gap is down to just a half-game now. All those banked wins give them as good a shot as any other team to win in that division, though I’m sure they didn’t expect to come crashing down so quickly after their impressive start.

Last year, Zac Gallen put together a 44.1 scoreless inning streak. He was back at it this year, stringing together 28 scoreless innings before that streak was snapped in his last start against the Rangers on Tuesday. That’s helped the Diamondbacks stay towards the top of the NL West standings. They called up their top pitching prospect, Brandon Pfaadt, to help their pitching staff, but it’s the bullpen that really needs some assistance. Their relief corps allowed five runs to score in the ninth inning on Saturday; a walk-off walk saved them from being saddled with the loss. The story was the same on Sunday, only this time they allowed six runs to score across the final three frames to earn the loss.

The Red Sox had an eight-game win streak broken Sunday in a 6–1 loss to the Phillies. A four-game sweep of the Blue Jays at home was the big highlight of their week, featuring a walk-off on Monday and another come-from-behind victory on Tuesday. After struggling through his first 13 games in the majors, Masataka Yoshida has put together a 16-game hit streak that’s still ongoing. Alex Verdugo has also been on a tear recently, putting up a career-high 139 wRC+ this year. But the most encouraging sign came from Chris Sale’s last start on Friday, in which he was regularly hitting the upper 90s on his fastball; his heater averaged 96 mph for the first time since 2018.

The Astros have dropped three series in a row after losing twice in Seattle over the weekend. That slide has pushed their record back down to .500, and they have some significant issues to work through. Despite Mauricio Dubón’s best efforts to cover for the injured Jose Altuve, Houston’s offense has been rather punchless to start the season; the team’s wRC+ of 90 is its worst mark since 2013, the franchise’s first year in the AL West and the last time the Astros lost more than 100 games in a season. To make matters worse, they just lost Luis Garcia and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery and a shoulder injury, respectively. That severely thins out an already stretched rotation.

Since being activated off the restricted list on April 20, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been exactly what the Padres have needed, even if his power numbers haven’t fully rebounded after his wrist and shoulder injuries. The team has gone 9–6 since getting him back in the lineup, which is good but not great, considering two of those losses came against the Dodgers over the weekend. With Manny Machado still stuck in an early slump and Juan Soto suffering through a power outage, San Diego desperately needed a bat like Tatis’ to carry some of the load until all of their superstars start to fire on all cylinders.

The Mets suffered through a week to forget. It started with a split doubleheader against the Braves on Monday, another doubleheader on Wednesday against the Tigers — part of a three game sweep at the hands of Detroit — and ended with an ugly 13–6 loss to the Rockies to drop a weekend series at home. They’ve now fallen below .500 and sit seven games behind the surging Braves. Their offense is struggling despite Brandon Nimmo’s best efforts, and Max Scherzer didn’t look right in his first start since being suspended a few weeks ago. Thankfully, Justin Verlander was just activated off the IL, giving the rotation some much needed reinforcements.

The Cardinals snapped an eight-game losing streak yesterday behind three home runs off the bat of Paul Goldschmidt. That big victory doesn’t solve all of their woes, however. They made the baffling decision to move Willson Contreras out from behind the plate into the designated hitter role and possibly into an already crowded outfield. While his defense has never been a strength, it certainly feels like he is taking the brunt of the blame for a struggling pitching staff that isn’t going to improve with a different receiver behind the plate. It’s the latest questionable decision from a team that feels like it should be a lot better than its record indicates but just can’t stop stepping on rakes.

With their sweep of the Mets and a series win against the Cardinals, the Tigers have pushed their record up to 15–19, just three games back in the AL Central. Javier Báez homered three times last week, and Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed just two runs in his last five starts, including eight shutout innings against the Mets on Thursday. There are still plenty of question marks up and down their roster, but there have been some positive signs in Detroit after a significant step back last year.

Liam Hendriks made his triumphant return to the mound in his first rehab appearances after striking out cancer last week. It might be too late to save this White Sox season, but his incredible recovery and road back to the majors is one of the biggest feel good stories of the season. And don’t look now, but Chicago won both of its series last week, capped by a 17-run outburst on Sunday.

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