FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 8–14

We’re approaching the quarter mark of the regular season and there’s still a large group of teams that had high expectations heading into the season and have largely disappointed so far. A few of the surprise teams have continued to play well too, but we’re getting to the point where clubs are ready to really evaluate how their roster is shaping up for the summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

For the first time this season, the Rays looked somewhat beatable. They lost a three-game series to the Orioles in Baltimore in which both teams scored six total runs, then battled the Yankees to a series split in New York over the weekend. But those losses last week pale in comparison to the new injury woes they’re facing. After losing Jeffrey Springs earlier this year, Drew Rasmussen has joined him on the 60-day injured list with an ominous elbow injury. Then, on Sunday, Yandy Díaz was removed from the game after suffering a groin injury running the bases. Losing your best hitter is never a good thing, but at least Tampa Bay has the depth to cover for Díaz, and Tyler Glasnow is slowly making his way through his rehab process to fill a hole in the rotation. All those wins the Rays have banked to start the season will definitely come in handy if they end up having trouble overcoming the losses of these key players.

The Braves had a pretty rough week on and off the field. They split a short two-game series against the Red Sox and then were swept by the Blue Jays in Toronto. The poor results on the field pale in comparison to the unfortunate news they received regarding two of their starters, Max Fried and Kyle Wright. Both were placed on the IL on Wednesday with an elbow and shoulder injury, respectively, and the expectation is that they’ll be sidelined for months. That leaves Atlanta’s rotation perilously thin for the bulk of the season.

The Orioles are in the middle of a particularly tough stretch of their schedule. They lost a series to the Braves last weekend but followed that up with a pair of series wins against the Rays and Pirates. They’ve got the Angels, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Rangers on the docket over the next two weeks. After that gauntlet, we’ll have a much better idea if they’ve really turned a corner this year and can be counted among the AL’s best teams.

The Twins scored 27 runs across their games on Saturday and Sunday. That’s the kind of offensive outburst that’s been missing from Minnesota’s season so far. Even though Joey Gallo is bashing home runs again, they’re striking out at the third-highest rate in the majors as a team, and Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have started off the year particularly slow, compounding the team’s offensive issues. Luckily, Minnesota’s pitching staff has picked up a lot of the slack, led by Joe Ryan, who has been phenomenal in his second full season in the majors. Along with Pablo López and Sonny Gray, the Twins possess the strongest rotation in baseball and have allowed the third fewest runs in the majors.

The Cubs are a tremendously confusing team to try and evaluate. They’ve won just five of their last 16 games but their run differential sits at +29, the third best mark in the National League. Based on the metrics used in these rankings, they’re the third strongest team in the majors behind only the Rays and Rangers. While their offense looks good on paper, it’s been pretty inconsistent recently and is buoyed by a number of blowouts earlier in the season. On the run prevention side of things, their pitching staff grades out very nicely, but again, they fall short when it comes to actual results. They’ve had plenty of issues allowing runs to score late in games in high leverage situations, which has led to too many tough-luck losses in the standings.

Thanks to the Pirates quick tumble from the top of the NL Central standings, the Brewers suddenly find themselves in first place in their division after a three-game sweep of the Royals over the weekend. Of note, Corbin Burnes pitched six shutout innings on Friday, allowing just six baserunners and striking out seven. Kansas City isn’t the toughest competition, so the results shouldn’t be that surprising, but it’s definitely a building block for Burnes who had been struggling uncharacteristically to start the season.

The Angels lost their third straight series over the weekend, losing two of three to the Guardians after dropping series to the Rangers and Astros. That slide takes their record to just a game over .500, and they’ve fallen to third in their division in a crowded AL playoff picture. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s plaguing them; Shohei Ohtani has been as dominant as ever and Mike Trout has been great too. Perhaps that’s the issue, as Trout has been a bit diminished when compared to his otherworldly career norms — a 139 wRC+ this year compared to a career 171 wRC+.

After charging up the standings with an eight-game win streak a few weeks ago, the Red Sox plunged back down after splitting a two-game series against the Braves and getting swept at home by the Cardinals. Their offense has had no problems scoring runs, with Masataka Yoshida leading the charge. Unfortunately, their run prevention unit has been completely atrocious. Outside of Chris Sale, who finally looks healthy, their rotation has been among the worst in the league, with a pretty poor team defense also sabotaging their efforts on the mound. The result has been the fourth-most runs allowed in the majors.

Things might finally be looking up for the Mets. They were mired in a particularly rough stretch, winning just four of their last 17 games heading into their weekend series against the Nationals. They won two of three and have an opportunity to win the series this afternoon; it would be their first series win since April 17–19, when they beat the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Max Scherzer made a strong start on Sunday, Justin Verlander is back from his spring injury, and Carlos Carrasco should be activated from the IL this week. A return to form from those three should bolster a rotation that’s been battered by injuries and ineffectiveness this year.

On Sunday, it was reported that the Reds are planning on calling up one of their many infield prospects, Matt McLain, this week. He ranked seventh on our most recent Reds prospect list as a 45 FV and he’s the first of many infield prospects who should be making their debuts this year. The problem is, Jonathan India is back to looking like he did during his Rookie of the Year campaign, Spencer Steer has been a solid utility infielder and Nick Senzel finally looks healthy. Cincinnati will find spots for all these prospects — their roster isn’t good enough to keep them in the minors for long — but it will be tricky to juggle them all while finding playing time for some of their established major leaguers too.

On Saturday, the Marlins finally had their first loss of the season in a one-run game after going 12-0 to start the year. That excellence in close games is the big reason their win-loss record seriously outpaces their really poor run differential. The dramatic wins are a nice bonus but all eyes are on the future in Miami. They just called up their top pitching prospect Eury Pérez on Friday and he looked good with seven strikeouts in 4.2 innings against the Reds. In the field, Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s switch to center field has looked like a success thus far (though he now needs to see a specialist for turf toe) and Luis Arraez continues to flirt with hitting .400.

There are so few things to enjoy when you’re a Rockies fan. The organization is seemingly stuck in a constant state of not actually rebuilding but not actually winning either. Thankfully, Kris Bryant, their big superstar they signed last year, is finally healthy and hitting well. His power has waned, and I don’t think he’s the player they expected to get when they paid him nearly $200 million to play in Denver, but he’s the face of their franchise for the foreseeable future so any success he has has to be counted as a win. If only it counted in the actual win-loss column.

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