FanGraphs Power Rankings: Opening Day 2026 (No. 1–18)

Opening Day is upon us! Yesterday, I laid out what the best- and worst-case scenarios looked like for the 12 teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026. Today, we turn our attention to the teams in the league who are forecast for a .500 or better record, the ones we expect to be vying for playoff position all season long.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these Opening Day rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. First up are the full rankings presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams we’re covering today into tiers, with comments on each club. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the pre-spring training run of the power rankings in February.

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The Dodgers went all-in again during the offseason, adding the best free agent, right fielder Kyle Tucker, and the top closer on the market, Edwin Díaz, as they push for their third straight World Series title. Once they’re in the postseason, the randomness of baseball could take over and sink their hopes, but we’ll leave that worry for the future. Right now, they’re the best team in baseball, and even some uncertainty with the health of their starting rotation won’t slow them down. They have the depth necessary to withstand the loss of their stars during the season, as they have the last two years, and it seems like some regular-season load management has already been built into their roster calculus. Whatever it takes to ensure this team is firing on all cylinders come October. After all, having a team full of superstars has become more and more important in the current expanded postseason field.

Both of the teams in this tier already suffered through their worst-case scenarios last year, so it isn’t hard to imagine what those could look like in 2026. For the Mets, they essentially blew up their entire roster, aside from Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, during the offseason, hoping to avoid another ugly late-summer collapse in 2026. Even though the roster looks stronger after all those moves, there are still some unanswered questions that could come back and haunt New York. Can Luis Robert Jr. rediscover his ceiling and stay healthy? Will Marcus Semien fight off Father Time for one more year? Can Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco adjust to their new positions while continuing to produce at the plate? Thankfully, the pitching staff looks a lot deeper with Freddy Peralta installed as the team’s ace and Nolan McLean, the third-ranked prospect on our preseason Top 100 list, set to start the year in the rotation. After the disappointment of last season — and pretty much the entirety of the franchise’s existence — Mets fans might be guarding their hearts a bit, but this team does look like it’s set to make a deep postseason run this year.

Injuries derailed the Braves’ season in 2025, and they’re threatening to do the same before the 2026 regular season even begins. The latest domino to fall was Spencer Strider, who will begin the season on the IL after suffering an oblique strain. He joins Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, and Joey Wentz on the IL, significantly depleting the depth in Atlanta’s rotation. The lineup hasn’t been immune to these spring woes either; Ha-Seong Kim injured his hand back in January, but the big blow was the 162-game suspension of Jurickson Profar on March 3 for his second positive test for a performance-enhancing drug in as many years. Despite all those hurdles, the projections still see the Braves as one of the better teams in baseball. A full, healthy season from Ronald Acuña Jr. is load-bearing in that regard, but bounce-back performances from Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II would also help tremendously. The best case probably looks like the lineup carrying Atlanta for the first half of the season before its injured starting pitchers return for the stretch run.

The Mariners enter the regular season in an unfamiliar position: They’re looking to defend a division title for the fourth time in franchise history and earn a postseason berth in consecutive seasons for just the second time ever. After their deep playoff run to the ALCS last year, expectations are sky high given the strength of the roster and the win-now moves to bring back Josh Naylor and bring in Brendan Donovan and Jose A. Ferrer over the offseason. The starting rotation should be a strength again, but its lack of depth could be a problem if another spate of injuries pops up — remember, four of Seattle’s top five starters spent time on the IL last year. Bryce Miller is already slated to start the year on the IL with an oblique injury, and starting shortstop J.P. Crawford will join him with a sore shoulder. Fortunately, neither injury sounds serious. Anchored by the star power of Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh, this looks like the best lineup the Mariners have had in years. Altogether, this team is built for another playoff appearance, and an early exit in October would rightly be seen as a disappointment.

The Phillies won 96 games and their second consecutive NL East title last season. They were also bounced out of the playoffs in the NLDS for the second year in a row. Unlike their division rivals in Queens, the Phillies got the band back together for another season, though there are two notable changes. First, they finally cut Nick Castellanos, whom they still owe $20 million for this season, and replaced him with another past-his-prime right fielder, Adolis García. At least, presumably, García won’t crack open a beer and bring it into the dugout after getting removed from a game. Second, Ranger Suarez left for the Red Sox in free agency. Otherwise, this is the mostly same roster, just a year older, and there are some concerns that this group won’t be able to reach the heights of the last few seasons. The starting rotation remains a huge strength for the Phillies — and offseason extensions for Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo give it some longevity — but there isn’t much depth here. Whether Zack Wheeler can return from thoracic outlet depression surgery at his previous ace level is a major questions, as is how their top pitching prospect, Andrew Painter, will fill Suarez’s rotation spot. Johan Rojas’ 80-game PED suspension opened the door for Justin Crawford to make the Opening Day roster, but the outfield is looking rather shaky, as well. The top-end talent will carry the team through the season, but things could go sideways if the rotation suffers any more losses.

After their historic collapse last summer that led to a wild card berth instead of a division title, followed by their elimination from the playoffs in the ALDS, the Tigers got right to work improving their roster. They brought in Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander to bolster their starting rotation; the former gives the team a second ace to pair with Tarik Skubal. Top prospect Kevin McGonigle (ranked fifth on our Top 100) made the Opening Day roster and should be the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. With Skubal set to hit free agency after this season, there’s some urgency to capitalize before his possible departure. Another early-round exit from the postseason would be a major disappointment.

Just like the Tigers, the Cubs were forced to settle for a wild card spot instead of a division title last year; they made it through that first round, but were then knocked out by the Brewers in the NLDS. Chicago let Kyle Tucker walk in free agency, instead pivoting to third baseman Alex Bregman once Tucker’s price got too high, and also brought in Edward Cabrera and a bunch of relievers to improve the pitching staff. The return of Justin Steele from his elbow injury should also help once the season gets underway. The projections think this is the team to beat in the NL Central, but the Cubs know first hand that Milwaukee shouldn’t be overlooked. The question is if their roster is strong enough to go deep in the playoffs, or if they’re still a step behind the best teams in the NL.

These four teams have been grouped together in the projections all offseason — three of them made the postseason last year, and the fourth, the Orioles, upgraded their roster enough to be considered alongside their divisional foes. The Yankees hold a slight edge over the rest of their rivals thanks to a roster that’s nearly identical to the one that won 94 games last year. Ryan Weathers and Randal Grichuk are the newcomers this offseason, and Gerrit Cole is on track to return from Tommy John surgery in late May or early June. Three-time MVP Aaron Judge is the load-bearing player on the roster; you could say that about any superstar on any team, but Judge’s place is unique here because he drives so much of the offense. New York has made the playoffs in nine of the last 11 seasons, but has only one World Series appearance to show for it. Expectations in the Bronx are already higher thanks to the team’s history, but another season without a championship would be considered a failure.

Fresh off their first World Series appearance in more than three decades, the Blue Jays are still in a solid position to defend their unexpected division title from last year, but the injury bug has bitten them this spring. Anthony Santander had shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and will miss the entire season. José Berríos, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage will all start the year on the IL with maladies of varying seriousness. Toronto traded for Jesús Sánchez in February to replace Santander in the lineup, but the injuries in the rotation are a little more worrisome. The Jays reunited with Max Scherzer this spring to give them a little more depth, but they’re heading into the season with a lot of their margin for error already spent.

Unlike the Jays, the Red Sox have more pitching than they can use right now. The attrition of the regular season means no team can truly have enough pitching, but Boston is awash in mid-rotation arms with a few more rehabbing from injuries. And with newcomers Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez providing a potent one-two punch behind Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet, there’s a strong argument to make that this is the best rotation in baseball. The lineup is pretty good, too, though not as deep as the pitching staff. Roman Anthony is a star on the rise, but there are some questions about whether Marcelo Mayer can stay healthy and make an impact in the big leagues. It’s possible that the Sox don’t provide enough offense to support their strong pitching staff — notably missing from this lineup is a true power hitter — but that likely won’t be an issue until they reach the postseason. Besides, Boston could flip some of that pitching surplus for a thumper or two ahead of the trade deadline if needed. It’s an enviable position to be in, and anything short of a deep postseason run would be a major disappointment.

The Orioles are already dealing with a few key injuries ahead of Opening Day; Jordan Westburg injured his elbow this spring, while Jackson Holliday suffered a fractured hamate bone. Those two infielders aren’t expected to be linchpins in the lineup the way that Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso are, but their absences strain the depth of the team. Baltimore doesn’t have the high-end pitching that its division rivals sport, but it is hoping that newcomers Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt and a full season from Kyle Bradish solidify the rotation. And then there are the questions about what kind of production the Orioles will get from Adley Rutschman and Coby Mayo. Even after investing in their roster this offseason, the O’s look a little vulnerable and are a step behind the other three monsters in their division.

It’s supposed to be a really exciting time to be a Pirates fan. The pitching staff is filled with young hurlers that could make it one of the best units in the NL, and they brought in a few veteran bats to solidify the lineup. There is considerable hype surrounding the potential debut of super prospect Konnor Griffin, though the payoff will be delayed for at least a little while longer, as Pittsburgh optioned him to Triple-A to start the season. I’m sure he’ll benefit from that extra development time in the minor leagues — after all, he’s only 19 years old and has played in just 122 games as a professional — but the move curbs some of the buzz building this spring. Still, the end of the long rebuilding cycle is within sight, and a surprise wild card push this summer isn’t out of the question, particularly if Griffin forces his way into the big leagues within a month or two. The shallow bullpen could be an issue, and relying on so many young, inexperienced players could lead to some major ups and downs as they acclimate to the majors.

For a team stuck in this huge morass of clubs projected to finish around .500, the Giants and their roster of established veterans feel a bit predictable. There’s some talent to be sure, but there’s little reason to expect a breakout season from an unknown player or the promise of a top prospect to propel the team past 82 wins. Bryce Eldridge could have been that guy, but San Francisco optioned him to Triple-A to start the season so he can work on his contact issues. The best-case scenario for the Giants might look like a resurgence from some of the established players on the roster; maybe Willy Adames gets back to a 120 wRC+ after a down year, or maybe Luis Arraez parlays his elite contact skills to pepper the deep gaps in Oracle Park with doubles this season. Banking on veterans to outperform their projections is often a fool’s errand — hey, it worked for this very team in 2021 — so the most likely outcome is a decent team that’s good enough to threaten for a wild card spot, but not good enough to actually close the deal.

The Brewers have been one of the most consistently successful franchises in baseball over the last decade, but they’re often underrated by the preseason projections. Their approach to uncovering value wherever they can and building a roster that’s more than the sum of its parts doesn’t play well with the computer’s math. Last year is a good representation of what the best-case scenario could look like for the current group: a ton of wins fueled by solid performances across the entire roster. These projections point to what the worst-case scenario could look like: a bunch of average players producing an average team.

The Diamondbacks’ worst-case scenario took shape last season when Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, and A.J. Puk all underwent Tommy John surgery within a few weeks of each other. That’s their best starter and two of their best relievers out for a good chunk of 2026. Even though Arizona brought back Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, I’m not sure it’s enough to shore up the ravaged pitching staff. There is a plausible scenario where the star trio of Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo help the team tread water until those injured pitchers can provide some reinforcements in the second half of the season. The margin for error is really thin, however, and it’s already been made thinner by Kelly’s back injury this spring that will force him to start the season on the IL. If things do go sideways, it would be great if Jordan Lawlar could finally make an impact in the big leagues and top prospects Ryan Waldschmidt and Tommy Troy could get an opportunity to make their debuts to build some momentum toward next year.

There was a clear theme to the WBC this March: star performances from the Royals’ core. Classic MVP Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez led Venezuela to a championship, Bobby Witt Jr. starred for the USA, and Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone carried Italy to a Cinderella run to the quarterfinals. Now that they’re all back on the same team, they’ll be looking to lead Kansas City into the playoffs. The issue might be the pitching staff. That group has been the strength of the team for the last few years, but the new dimensions at Kauffman Stadium might have a bigger negative effect than expected. After all, the Royals are just 22nd in strikeout rate over the last two seasons; they allow a ton of contact and have been relying on their defense and expansive dimensions of their home ballpark to turn those batted balls into outs.

It’s hard to pin down what to expect from the Rangers. They made some dramatic win-now moves this offseason, bringing in Brandon Nimmo and MacKenzie Gore, and the majority of the core that won a championship back in 2023 is still present. It’s very easy to imagine a scenario where Corey Seager stays healthy, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi defy their age for another year, and young guys like Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter take big steps forward. In that universe, this team is challenging the Mariners for first place in the AL West and probably winning a wild card spot. It’s just as easy to imagine the complete opposite outcome taking place, the one where injuries decimate their roster and everything falls apart, prompting them to crash out of the playoff picture and into a rebuilding cycle.

The Astros have already seen glimpses of what their downside could look like this spring: Josh Hader will be starting the year on the IL with biceps inflammation, and Jeremy Peña’s status for Opening Day is unclear after he suffered a fractured fingertip last month. A host of injuries contributed to Houston’s downfall last year, and the team is already under pressure before the season begins. There remains a considerable amount of talent on this roster, even if it might not be up to the level of its dominant teams over the last decade. Still, there are plenty of questions that will impact whether the Astros can reach their ceiling and return to the postseason. Can Yordan Alvarez stay healthy? Will Jose Altuve, now back at second base and entering his age-36 season, bounce back after his worst full season since 2013? Will the starting rotation find some stability after so much turnover? In so many ways, it feels like this team is in the middle of that awkward transition from one competitive window to another, with all the uncertainty that comes with that shift.