Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. There must have been something in the water across the league over the past seven days, because while this column always highlights delightful oddities that I caught, they aren’t often so delightful or so odd. This week, rarities abounded. There were runners getting hit by throws, wild acrobatics, no-look passes, and even a pitchout. Hot teams and cold teams clashed, errors got compounded, and situations that felt in hand rapidly got away. So keep an eye on the runner at first base, and let’s get started – after my customary thanks to Zach Lowe of The Ringer, who popularized this column format for basketball.

1. Not-Quite-Free Bases
Jarren Duran is off to a slow start to the 2025 season. And while the problems have mostly come at the plate, everything seems a little off. Take this misadventure on the basepaths last Thursday. Duran led off the bottom of the 10th inning with a game-tying single. That made him the winning run, and he immediately started plotting a theft of second base to get into scoring position. Nick Sandlin checked on him:

Then he checked on him again:

That’s two disengagements; Sandlin wasn’t likely to try again. Duran stole 34 bases last year. He’s blazing fast. He was 5-for-5 on the season and had already swiped one in this game. Second base was as good as his. And so the Blue Jays took extreme measures, calling for one of the least-used plays in modern baseball, a pitchout:

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It’s never fun being the subject of a story that people call a saga. So when the Pete Alonso free agency saga transpired over the winter, I wondered whether he’d get off to a sluggish start as a result. Signing for less money than your agent told you you’d make, later than you expected to sign, and with a team offering you a smaller contract than they had the year before? It’s enough to make spring training a bit less of a ramp-up period and a bit more of a time for taking out frustration. If Alonso had started slow this season, I wouldn’t have raised an eyebrow.

Turns out, Pete Alonso isn’t like me. Instead of sulking a little and coasting into the regular season, he’s come out like a man possessed. Through Tuesday’s action (17 games), he’s hitting an outrageous .356/.466/.729, the kind of batting line that doesn’t really make any sense and doesn’t need to. Suffice it to say, he’s not going to stay this hot unless he’s secretly Lou Gehrig, a development that would raise more questions than it answered. So we don’t need to ask whether this form is real – we can instead focus on what Alonso is doing the same and differently, and then go from there.

What is Alonso best at? That’s right, hitting the ball in the air with authority. That’s always been his calling card and it’s no different this year. Want a simple way of stating that? He leads the majors with 13 barrels, one ahead of Aaron Judge. That’s the kind of power you’d expect from a first baseman who averages 38 homers per 600 plate appearances (2020 makes “per year” stats pretty annoying). Even last season, Alonso’s worst in the bigs, he finished 13th in the majors in barrels. He plays a lot and he hits the ball very hard; those are things we’ve always known about Alonso. Read the rest of this entry »

Have you seen all the technological advances taking over pitching in recent years? High-speed cameras, pitching labs, weighted ball training, wind tunnels – maybe the reason we haven’t sent anyone to the moon for decades is that we’re using all the technology to strike batters out instead. Clearly, the arms race (get it?) favors technological savvy and complicated, inscrutable mathematical modeling.

Here’s a counterpoint, though: Maybe you should just throw a fastball and a slider and laugh as batters flail at both. Case in point: Randy Rodríguez has been the best reliever in baseball this year, and there’s nothing fancy about his game. He throws a 98-mph fastball. He throws a tight slider. That’s it – and that’s really all he needs anyway. Through eight appearances this year, he has 13 strikeouts, zero walks, and zero runs allowed.

Oh, two paragraphs don’t make an article? Well then, I guess we should expand on everything a bit. First, his backstory: Rodríguez signed with the Giants in 2017 out of the Dominican Republic and then slowly climbed the minor league ranks. He was a reliever right from the jump, with only occasional dalliances with short-burst starts, and he got a taste of Triple-A in 2022, where he got shelled. He tried it again in 2023 with better results, and by 2024 he looked like he belonged. That was his first year in the upper minors with a single-digit walk rate, and that’s all the Giants were waiting for; they called him up midseason and plugged him into the bullpen.
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For the past half decade, Logan Webb has been one of the game’s premier starters. He churns out 30-start seasons with ERAs in the 3s like clockwork; that’s almost exactly his seasonal average since switching to a full-time sinkerballer in 2021. In that span, he’s averaging 4.4 WAR per year, and he’s topped 200 innings in each of the past two seasons. This year, he’s atop the leaderboards again, with a 2.63 ERA and 2.25 FIP through four starts. But there’s something new to see here, and it’s a change I thought Webb would make for years before he actually did, so I think an updated look is in order.

Webb’s approach was simple and yet effective. He threw three pitches to righties: sinker, sweeper, changeup. Against lefties, he threw fewer sweepers and more changeups, and he also mixed in a few four-seamers in lieu of sinkers. For the most part, though, he alternated his three best pitches, weighted to suit the batter he was facing. Here’s a great graphic, courtesy of Baseball Savant’s player pages, that shows Webb’s movement profile. I picked 2023 for reasons that will become obvious shortly:

This shows a few things about Webb’s game in one image. His sinker and changeup move very differently from the league-average versions of those pitches. His four-seamer, rarely thrown, is effective not because of inherent shape, but because it’s different from his primary fastball. His sweeper is the only thing he throws that breaks glove side, and it breaks that way by quite a lot. If you’re facing Webb, you’re either going to see something that tails hard arm side (sinker or changeup) or something that shoots hard glove side (sweeper). It’s like facing Clay Holmes or Blake Treinen for 100 pitches at a time. Read the rest of this entry »

This spring, the Angels banned the use of cell phones in their clubhouse. I read that news with great interest, since like so many people these days, I have a love/hate relationship with the little screen in my pocket. I really do feel like looking at it less often could help me out. What better laboratory to test the wholesome effects of less screen time than a high stakes sport?

Then I thought a bit more about the situation and laughed. Could cell phone usage bring the Angels to the playoffs? Signing Shohei Ohtani for a pittance couldn’t bring the Angels to the playoffs. Drafting Mike Trout, one of the greatest players in the 21st century, and then twice signing him to contract extensions has only taken the team to October once in Trout’s career. Maybe this was the wrong team to pin my hopes to. But fast forward three weeks, and who sits atop the AL West but the Los Angeles Angels, in the first year where they banned cell phones. Coincidence?

I mean, yeah. Thanks for bearing with me for that extended introduction, but this isn’t an article about the evils of technology. Instead, it’s about what’s gone right in Anaheim so far this year, and whether that should change our view of the team going forward. Read the rest of this entry »

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Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) In Baseball This Week. I was at a wedding this past weekend, a generally fun event for a baseball writer. That’s because strangers ask me what I do, and then I get to say, “I’m a baseball writer.” That plays a lot better than, “I work in accounting/finance/tech,” no offense to any of you in those fine fields. But this weekend, someone inquired deeper. “Oh, like sabermetric stuff?” “Yeah! Kind of. Also I make GIFs of dumb and/or weird plays. And bunts, lots of bunts.” Yes, it’s a strange job being a baseball writer, but also a delightful one, and this week delivered whimsy and awe in equal amounts. So unlike guests milling around at a wedding, let’s get straight to the point – after the customary nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for the inspiration for this article format.

1. Not Reaching Home
The third time a runner was tagged out at the plate in Wednesday’s Cardinals-Pirates clash came at a pivotal moment. Locked in a scoreless tie in the bottom of the 11th, Pittsburgh finally looked like it would break through when Joey Bart singled to right. But, well:

That was a good throw by Lars Nootbaar and a clean catch by Pedro Pagés, and that combination turned a close play into a gimme. I mean, how often are you going to be safe when the catcher already has the ball in his glove and you’re here:

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Some days, we analyze all of baseball here at FanGraphs, and maybe come up with some tools that will help predict all of future baseball. Injury-aware depth charts, payroll matrices, top prospect lists: You get the idea. Today, however, is not one of those days, at least not for me. That’s because after watching some videos of Tyler Soderstrom being very strong, I tried to figure out whether his early-season success will continue.

Being very strong is a valuable skill, at least when it comes to hitting a baseball. People don’t ooh and aah over Aaron Judge because his name makes for a fun fan section; they do it because he hits the ball so far. There are countless different ways to be good at hitting, but let’s be honest with each other: Being really strong is one of the best ways. Chicks don’t dig the well-placed opposite field sinking liner, you know? Or, if they do, no one made t-shirts about it.

How strong is Tyler Soderstrom? Well, watch this swing:

I’m sure you’ve heard of taking what the pitcher gives you, going to the opposite field when the ball is away rather than trying to pull it. I’m fairly certain that the people giving that advice don’t mean that you should flick your wrists and smash the ball over the fence at 100 miles an hour, though.
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Last year, David Appelman and I set about injuring a ton of players. Wait, that doesn’t sound right. Let’s try this again. Last year, David Appelman and I developed a method to use our depth charts projections to simulate how much injuries to the league’s top players might affect each of the teams in baseball. Today, we’re updating that article for the 2025 season. I’ll also present some research I’ve done into how these injury-aware depth charts compare to actual historical seasons.

First, a review of the methodology is in order. If you don’t need an update, or if you simply want to get right to the data, you can skip ahead; the results section is clearly labeled below. We decided to simulate depth by first removing the top X players from a team’s depth chart and then reallocating playing time to fill in the missing plate appearances or innings pitched. We then created a number of rules to make sure that these new depth charts were generated in a reasonable way, at least to the greatest extent possible.

Let’s use the 2025 Phillies as an example. As of the time of our run on April 7, we projected the Phillies for a .545 winning percentage against league average opposition. That projection comes from allocating playing time to each Phillies player according to our depth charts, using blended projections from ZiPS and Steamer to estimate the talent level of those players, and then plugging those projections into the BaseRuns formula to estimate runs scored and runs allowed. But those projections have an obvious weakness: they’re static. Read the rest of this entry »

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