The Giants have acquired outfielder Andrew McCutchen in exchange for Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds. Below are the KATOH projections for Pittsburgh’s newest prospects.

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The Astros have acquired right-hander Gerrit Cole (for real this time) from the Pirates in exchange for Michael Feliz, Joe Musgrove, and prospects Jason Martin and Colin Moran. Below are the KATOH projections for the latter two of those players.

Note that WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

*****

Colin Moran, 3B (Profile)
KATOH: 3.0 WAR
KATOH+: 2.8 WAR

The Marlins made Moran the sixth-overall pick back in 2013, but his stock has cratered since. His bat never developed the way scouts thought it would, culminating in a paltry .259/.329/.368 line in 2016. He showed signs of life last year, however, hitting .308/.373/.543 in his second crack at Triple-A. For the first time as a professional, he hit for power — largely by upping his fly-ball rate by 10 percentage points — while simultaneously cutting eight points off of his strikeout rate.

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Gerrit Cole was reportedly traded to the Astros earlier this week. I wrote about that hypothetical move in greater length here and why Cole might fit well with Houston.

I wrote earlier this offseason that the Pirates ought to trade Cole. The Pirates are re-tooling to some degree, while the Astros are a World Series contender that has been motivated to find a starting pitcher. It makes sense for both parties.

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When FanGraphs conducted its annual free-agent crowdsourcing project just after the end of the 2017 season, the results suggested that Addison Reed would receive the third-richest deal among relievers this winter.

If the crowd were correct, Reed was in line for something remarkably similar to Mike Minor this offseason. So when Minor landed a guaranteed three years and $28 million at the beginning of December — that is, almost precisely the same figure for which he’d been projected by the masses — it seemed that, in theory, the crowd’s estimate represented a reasonable target for Reed.

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On Saturday, the Padres sent INF Yangervis Solarte to Toronto in exchange for 21-year-old Venezuelan OF Edward Olivares and 24-year-old org reliever Jared Carkuff.

Olivares is the prospect centerpiece of the deal. He had a fairly significant breakout in 2017 after he barely played affiliated ball in 2016 due to injury. He was hurt after just 15 games at Bluefield in 2016 and, aside from those organizations that had extended spring-training coverage in Florida, many clubs didn’t see him until last year. In 2017, he went to Low-A and hit .277/.330/.500 with 17 homers and 18 steals in 101 games. He was promoted to Dunedin in mid-August and struggled there for the final three weeks of the season.

Olivares has an exciting, but volatile, skillset. He’s a free swinger with mediocre breaking-ball recognition and a pull-heavy approach to contact. He takes his share of ugly, unbalanced hacks at pitches that aren’t anywhere near the strike zone. So while he struck out in just 17% of his Low-A plate appearances last year, scouts are concerned about how undercooked Olivares’s feel to hit is right no, and worry that it could become an issue against more advanced pro pitching.

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The Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox swung a three-team, six-player trade yesterday involving relievers Scott Alexander, Luis Avilan, and Joakim Soria plus three prospects: Trevor Oaks, Erick Mejia and Jake Peter.

Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have provided scouting reports for the prospects changing hands. Below are the KATOH projections for those same players. WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

*****

Trevor Oaks, RHP, Kansas City (Profile)

KATOH: 3.4
KATOH+: 2.6

Oaks caught KATOH’s eye last year when he put up a 2.74 ERA with decent peripherals across 24 starts in the Dodgers system. An oblique injury effectively ended his 2017 season in July, but not before he recorded a 3.49 FIP and 21% strikeout rate in 84 Triple-A innings. Oaks turns 25 in March but has succeeded as a starter at the highest level of the minors.

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Position: Houston Astros Baseball Research & Development Analyst

Location: Houston
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Position: Washington Nationals 2018 Research & Development Internship

Location: Washington DC
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The Colorado Rockies have been rumored for a month-plus to be on the verge of signing a free-agent closer who used to pitch for the Kansas City Royals. Today, they did just that — but it’s not the reliever you might have thought. Instead of re-signing Greg Holland, they opted to add Wade Davis to the fold. Jeff Passan reports:

On its own, there’s a lot to consider here — and that’s without even accounting for the terms of the deal and what those terms mean for the Rockies. Once again, Passan:

This can really only go one of two ways. The first possible outcome — and the one that’s more probable — is that it blows up in Colorado’s face, becoming a cautionary tale like the Mike Hampton–Denny Neagle signing spree of Dec. 2000. The second is that the Rockies are on to something here. Yes, they may have just assembled the most expensive bullpen in history — certainly it will be one of the most expensive — but they have the opportunity to ride with that for this year at least because of all the minimum-contract pitchers they have.

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The Diamondbacks want to build a stronger bullpen, but they say they don’t have much money to spend. As such, instead of talking to Wade Davis or Greg Holland, the club added Brad Boxberger. And now, the club has also added 33-year-old Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hirano, the terms set at two years and $6 million. That’s a little steeper than the two years and $4 million given by the Rangers to Chris Martin, who’s also coming over from Japan. Martin is younger and has been better more recently, but Hirano is more decorated.

Having spent his whole career with the Orix Buffaloes, Hirano has 156 saves to his name. He converted to relief full-time in 2010, and he became a closer full-time in 2013. It’s possible he could close for Arizona. It’s possible Boxberger could close. It’s possible Archie Bradley could close. Maybe all of them will close! I don’t know how it’ll work out, and the Diamondbacks themselves probably don’t know how it’ll work out, but Hirano will get important innings regardless. What does the righty have to offer? It just so happens he faced Nolan Arenado in the most recent WBC. Hirano threw three pitches and got a strikeout. The at-bat opened with a slider:

Then there was a splitter:

Then there was a fastball:

That’s Hirano. Get-me-over breaking ball, mid-80s splitter, low-90s fastball. The slider, he doesn’t throw very much. The splitter is his signature. Or, if you prefer, forkball. I’m not going to pretend to be able to tell them apart. Effectively, there’s no difference. Last year, in Japan, Hirano threw the highest rate of splitters out of all pitchers. We’re talking a little more than two-fifths of his pitches.

Hirano has dominance in his history. Even last year, he had a sub-3 ERA, which followed a year with a sub-2 ERA. But Hirano might’ve been at his best in 2013. You can’t look at his numbers without noticing the following:

Hirano’s strikeout rate has plummeted, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. It’s not what any front office would want to see. On the more encouraging side, though, Hirano hasn’t lost any zip. There exists pitch-tracking data in Japan for the past four years, and Hirano’s fastball and splitter have maintained basically the same velocities. He’s throwing the same pitches he used to. So he could get back to his old level of performance. And there exists a belief he could benefit from the American baseball.

Koji Uehara would be an easy comparison here, and his strikeout rate got better after coming to the States. Masahiro Tanaka and Hisashi Iwakuma also generated strikeout-rate upticks. And I might as well note that, while Seung Hwan Oh doesn’t lean on a splitter, he had a fantastic rookie season in the majors. His last year in Japan, Oh had a K-BB% of 17%. His first year in the majors, it was 27%. Now, Oh also had a much rougher sophomore campaign, but when he signed with the Cardinals, he, too, looked like he could be declining. Instead, he was initially terrific. The Diamondbacks are making a modest bet on Hirano’s stuff staying the same, and his splitter playing up.

Uehara has had an outstanding major-league career, throwing fastballs and splitters with a little less zip. He also, however, appears to command the ball better than Hirano does. Edward Mujica would be a lesser potential outcome. Even he had his uses. Hirano doesn’t seem to be at his peak, and the Diamondbacks won’t look for him to be their savior. But if Hirano likes the ball, there’s a chance he could be a major first-half surprise. The fastball/splitter combination has been proven to work, provided they’re thrown right. Hirano hasn’t lost his arm strength.