Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/22

2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first New York edition of my chat in quite some time. I’m back from my two weeks in San Diego and I had my mind on the local ballclubs here — i didn’t get to see much of them from the West Coast due to the timing of games. I covered Tuesday’s game and Frankie Montas’ rebound (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/frankie-montas-and-the-yankees-get-back-on…), wrote about Francisco Lindor’s MVP-caliber season (some folks need to look up the meaning of caliber https://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-is-having-an-mvp-caliber-…), while also covering the Albert Pujols renaissance (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/albert-pujols-is-enjoying-a-renaissance/) and the latest turn in position players pitching (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/suddenly-position-players-are-sealing-more…)

2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: But wait, there’s more! I discussed the Yankees (and to a lesser extent the Cardinals and Jordan Montgomery) with Ben Clemens on the FanGraphs Audio podcast (https://t.co/XJLD76El9I), which also features David Laurila speaking to El Paso Chihuahuas broadcaster-turned-author Tim Hagerty

2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Anyway, it’s a short chat today because I’ve got to do some dinner shopping in honor of my daughter’s sixth birthday

2:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: so let’s get to it!

2:06
AJ: Thoughts on Julio extension?

2:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

The structure of Julio Rodriguez’s massive extension is very complicated, but the topline details, sources tell ESPN: $210 million guaranteed over 14 years with the ability to grow to well over $400M. Includes player and team options.

The great @JesseSanchezMLB was on the deal.

26 Aug 2022

2:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m excited for Mariners fans, some of which are members of the Edgar Martinez wing of the Jaffe family. My own daughter was very impressed by Julio via the Home Run Derby too. I think it’s great to see a young player with this much talent get a payday and hope that he continues to live up to the faith the team is placing in him

2:09
Guest: If (/when) Goldschmidt wins MVP, is he almost a lock for HOF?

2:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t say a lock, but he’s doing a lot to consolidate his case this year. I wrote about him doing so here recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-tracks-on-the-road-to-cooperstown-w…) and by bWAR he’s not only in a peak season (and thus gaining double traction in JAWS) he’s got a shot at a career-best year.

2:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: First Base (18th):
57.8career WAR |44.67yr-peak WAR |51.2JAWS |5.9WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

2:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ll have more on Goldschmidt next week.

2:12
Guest: Off the top of your head, how poorly does this new class of HOF ballot members rank?

2:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: With Carlos Beltran the top candidate it at least has something approaching a JAWS-qualified Hall of Famer, which wasn’t the case for the 2021 ballot (Buehrle, Hudson, and Hunter were the top newcomers) or 2012 (Bernie Williams was the best)

2:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Center Field (9th):
70.1career WAR |44.47yr-peak WAR |57.2JAWS |4.4WAR/162
  Average HOF CF (out of 19):
    71.6 career WAR | 44.7 7yr-peak WAR | 58.1 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162

2:15
Avatar Jay Jaffe: obviously Beltran’s involvement in the sign-stealing scandal is probably going to complicate voters’ feelings about him, but he’s a top-10 center fielder

2:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Speaking of center fielders who have complicated their Hall of Fame cases, SMH https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus…

2:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think you can kiss Kenny Lofton’s chance of landing on an Era Committee ballot goodbye for a long time

2:17
MilwaukeeBeerJays: Jay, I really just want to say thanks. I’ve started growing a moustache because of you. Although I did go to a Modest Mouse show last night and saw a couple of dudes with the hipster twirl thing at the ends which kinda turned me off, but for you sir, I will persevere!

2:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: keep on keepin’ on, my friend!

2:18
Eliot: What are your thoughts on the Twins going into next season in terms of free agency/re-signing Correa?

2:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’d be surprised (but not shocked) if they emerge as players for him long-term because i still think his next deal starts with a 3 and I don’t see the Twins going there. but maybe his tepid season has shaved the price a bit and he really likes lutefisk

2:20
bosoxforlife: The last time you chatted I raved about Vaughn Grissom. You were, as one would expect, hesitant but are you ready to jump on the bandwagon now?  The Braves should sign him to another one of their incredibly efficient long-term contracts and add him to the amazing core that they have amassed.

2:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: On the one hand, I generally think it’s a mistake to get too wound up about 59 PA even when a guy is hitting .382/.424/.600, but on the other, the Braves do seem to know what they’re doing with promoting him (and before him Harris). He’s not going to maintain a .439 BABIP or thrive forever with a 39% chase rate, but the odds that he’s here to stay do seem high.

2:26
Some Guy: Favorite position player pitcher ever? (Obviously not including Ohtani [or Babe Ruth for that matter]) Mine is Drew Butera. He honestly looked like a legit pitcher every time he took the mound.

2:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Maybe Russell Martin simply because he was one of my favorite players of his time and because of the novelty of him being used to close at the time. But then again, Ichiro finally getting to pitch was so #$%^& cool

2:28
Matt: I got nothing other than I’m excited for Harper to be back today.  Baseball games are more fun with him giving his all.

2:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: HELL YES

2:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I remain a big Bryce Harper fan.

2:28
Ghost of Ron Santo: Pat Hughes was recently inducted into the Cubs Hall of Fame; any opinion on his chance at a Ford Frick award? Any broadcaster you think is particularly deserving?

2:30
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think the Frick Award is very tough to weigh in on with much authority because there are team-associated candidates that most of us have never heard a whole lot of, even in the age of MLB Advanced Media. I respect the way a team’s fan base might revere such guys but if they don’t also have a national profile it’s tough for me to appreciate it on the same level.

2:32
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I will say that one of the funniest things I have ever experienced in baseball was Kevin Goldstein doing an extended Pat Hughes impression at the 2004 Winter Meetings in Anaheim. This was when he was still at Baseball America and i was still new to Baseball Prospectus. Little did I know we’d become teammates first at BP and then here. I hope he still does that Hughes impression

2:32
Brandon: All discussion about Tatis’ Hall of Fame candidacy is premature, right? Not only does have to play like a Hall of Famer but who knows what writers are going to care about in 25 years.

2:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That’s fair. I don’t think we know how this mess will be viewed, because it’s relatively unparalleled in the annals — a young player not only messing up but doing so at a time when he wasn’t even participating in MLB games. The young stars I can think of who were caught, such as Ryan Braun and Starlin Marte, aren’t HOF-caliber players and their gotchas were more proximate to their performances.

2:35
Honkus Wagner: do you think Moreno’s pending sale of the Angels makes an Ohtani trade more likely this off season?

2:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: yes, i think so

2:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: but I think he’s going to have to force the issue if he wants out, telling them so

2:36
Bighen: You think the Mets lineup is strong enough to get through the playoffs? I feel like there are a few real holes and one legit thumper in Alonso

2:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t think they match up particularly well against the Dodgers but jeez, Canha and McNeil are high-obp guys, Lindor is an elite player, and they shored up the DH hole with Vogelbach and Ruf.

In a short series, if they can get 3 good starts out of Scherzer and deGrom, they can knock off anybody.

2:39
Some Guy: Happy birthday to the adorable gremlin.

2:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Thank you!

2:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: (yes, we refer to our daughter as a little gremlin sometimes)

2:39
NobleHelium: Do you like the Twins or the White Sox as WC3? Or perhaps the Guardians?

2:39
Rita: How do you see the Wild Card races playing out?

2:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think the Phillies and Padres hold out in the NL, with the Brewers missing the boat, and that we’ll see the Blue Jays, Rays, and Mariners from the AL, with the AL Central being winner take all. that’s what the odds say anyway, and I don’t really have a good feeling about any of the ALC teams getting off the mat

2:41
Pasquantino Forever: What do you think about the balanced schedule?

2:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t like it, and my big concern is how much more air travel it means for some teams (studies have shown teams don’t do well with it), but I think it all depends on whose ox is being gored. I live in NY and get all the stars through here pretty much every year because there are two teams. I also think that replacing division rivalry games with mandatory visits to/from poorly run teams like the Pirates, Royals, and Tigers is a net loss. BUT, if you’re somewhere that only gets an infrequent visit from Ohtani and Trout or Soto or Mookie and now you get them every two years, I can see why you’d see this as a win.

2:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Dan has a good piece on the changes here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-do-the-projections-say-about-the-2023…, though i still want Baseball Savant to put the 2023 data into their air miles calculator https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/map

2:46
Joe: Who is your pick for NL ROY? AL?

2:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: NL to me is probably between the two Braves, Harris and Strider; I’dgo with the former because I think he really shored up that outfield at a time they were desperate. AL I’d lean Julio unless there’s significant separation between him and Adley Rutschmann over the final six weeks

2:48
John Olerud’s Helmet: Howdy Mr Jay! Teams still limit pitchers based on innings pitched but at what point do they start limiting based on stress level of individual pitches per game? Seems like something that could be tracked at this point and would be efficient way to judge workload

2:49
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I suspect this is something teams are doing internally already, and on the outside we’re a generation behind by using innings as a rough proxy.

2:50
Avatar Jay Jaffe: (doing internally not just by counting pitches but by more complicated measures that account for stress levels, rest, workloads, etc.)

2:51
Some Guy: If you had to pick a young’n aside from the usual suspects (JRod, Soto, ect.), who do you think has the best shot at the HoF?

2:57
Avatar Jay Jaffe: As I’ve written before, position players in the majors at 21 or younger historically have about a 20-25% chance of making the Hall. Beyond the obvious guys to whom that applies (Soto, Tatis, Rodriguez, Acuña, Franco) a couple I’d keep an eye on would be Bo Bichette (21 in 2019) and Michael Harris II (21 this year). I’m not saying they are even playing like HOF candidates, just that if you’re making educated guesses about longshots, they’re where I’d start.

2:58
Anon21: Thoughts on why/how the Braves have signed so many position players to long-term extensions early in their service clocks? Is this actually a notable difference from what other teams are doing, and if so, what process is enabling them to get these deals done?

3:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: They seem to be taking a page from the John Hart Cleveland teams of the mid-1990s, which pioneered the move, and let’s not forget hart finished his career in Atlanta. Not all of these deals are going to look wise 5-10 years from now but some of them are so far below market that it hardly matters.

I don’t have numbers to tell me offhand how frequently this occurs but having five such position players locked up this far in advance (Olson, Acuña, Albies, Riley and Harris are all guaranteed through 2025, with one or two club options tacked on.

3:05
RAndoM: Which players do you believe would have been in the Hall were it not for time missed to strikes, military service, or injuries?

3:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think Fred McGriff is probably the only lock as he’d have reached 500 homers without the 1994 strike but that there’s a few WW2 guys (Tommy Henrich, Charlie Keller, and Cecil Travis come to mind) who could have really benefited. Likewise for Lou Whitaker (two strikes), Bobby Grich and Dwight Evans (1981 strike). Maybe those guys don’t get in off the writers’ ballot but they at least stick around to build their bases of support instead of getting bumped after 1 or 2 years.

3:09
Appa Yip Yip: That Rodriguez deal is wild. Floor of 210, ceiling of 470.

3:09
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That’s a lot of variables

3:09
Bighen: Will Clark or Keith Hernandez?

3:09
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Hernandez for me

3:09
Mike M: Brighter future:  LAD or ATL?

3:09
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Dodgers because they’re better able to outspend their competition AND have a great farm system

3:10
Sparky: You mentioned JORDAN Montgomery, what were your initial thoughts of the trade?  I always thought NYY never seemed to give Montgomery a fair shake and see Bader as an average player with decent speed but with foot problems what can he do to justify the deal?

3:13
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I didn’t like it from the Yankees’ perspective, mainly given the question marks about Severino and others. The “he won’t start a playoff game” argument from the Kool Aid crowd citing his lone four-inning postseason start from 2020 was unconvincing, to say the least. Discussed both sides of this this a bit with Ben Clemens on the aforementioned FGA podcast linked above.

3:13
bosoxforlife: There was an interesting article today on another site that focused on the Braves success at gaining control over key players throughout their prime years at a reasonable price. The writer called out virtually the rest of the industry and said that teams that didn’t pursue this approach were guilty of malpractice. An opinion that I whole-heartedly agree with and the Mariners took a giant step in that direction today. Do you think this will sweep through front offices?

3:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s that extreme — Cleveland’s blueprint has been on the table for a quarter-century but it’s not like all 30 teams have taken it up equally

3:15
Sodo Mojo: Has anyone calculated the miles the Mariners are going to travel next year.  They were already far and away the most traveled team this year will the new schedule exacerbate that?

3:15
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think this cuts down on the miles for the AL West teams and reduces the standard deviation but I’d like to see the numbers

3:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Here’s a summary of the jet lag study by the way https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/01/24/study-fi…

3:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I’ve got a birthday girl who’s about to open some presents. Thanks so much for stopping by this week! No chat next week due to the holiday weekend, so I’ll see you in a couple weeks





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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Ukranian to Vietnamese to French is back
1 year ago

{Friday Name That Tune Bonus: lyrics below are to the #1 hit worldwide 20 years ago (but never a US top 40 hit). Enjoy – UVF}

Mira a la vuelta de la esquina
Cerca de Døgo rumbøndo
Con mhsatsem en zønitsakh om morsuko
La banda rebelde se queda en la eduta

Y allí, por falta de fuerzas por el bien de las almas, la Trinidad puede ceder
El ritmo de ragatangas es abrumador
Y los que lo conocen, jugamos el partido de las 12
La canción más deseable para ti.
“No quiero decir que lo sentimos”, dijo.

Y asereye-ha-deje
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy
Asereye-ya-de ye
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy
Asereye-ha-deye
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy

La regla, no el engaño, es una indicación de su importancia.
de la comida
Siente las alegrías de John May
Rastafari-Afro-Gitana

Y allí, por falta de fuerzas por el bien de las almas, la Trinidad puede ceder
El ritmo de ragatangas es abrumador
Y los que lo conocen, jugamos el partido de las 12
La canción más deseable para ti.
“No quiero decir que lo sentimos”, dijo.

Y asereye-ha-deje
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy
Asereye-ya-de ye
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy
Asereye-ha-deye
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy

Y asereye-ha-deje
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy
Asereye-ya-de ye
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy
Asereye-ha-deye
De jebe tu de jebere seibiunouva maiavy an de bugui an de guididepy

Last edited 1 year ago by Ukranian to Vietnamese to French is back