Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/1/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and welcome to the first chat of September! Which means that yes, you’ve been called up to the majors and added to the roster.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Tristan Peters, a former Savannah Banana (from their days in wood-bat collegiate summer leagues) and unheralded prospect who’s been one of the top rookie position players in the game this season. This was a fun one to put together https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tristan-peters-has-gone-bananas/

Jay Jaffe: Last week, I did my annual Hall of Fame progress update, dividing players into those who have had rough seasons that have hurt their cause (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-a-rough-year-for-gian…) and those who have helped their cause (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-chris-sale-and-others…)

Jay Jaffe: I’m mulling writing something about position players pitching, which is on the rise again. So, let’s do a quick, unscientific poll…

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Let’s see how that does with our readers here (small sample size noted)

warpath: Hey Jay, thanks for the chat.

Today is September call-up day. Do you have any general thoughts on September callups? I personally love them, but I wish we had the old rules where teams can carry more than 28 guys. I think this lead to a lot of minor league depth guys getting an MLB shot when they wouldn’t otherwise.

Jay Jaffe: I do kind of miss the days when practically the whole 40-man roster could overrun the dugouts and bullpens but even so I’ll concede that was taking things too far. On the other hand, I think the 2-player increase (to 28) is too restrictive. It’s nice to reward top minor leaguers (and the occasional organizational lifer) with a September callup, and see some of these guys get their first taste of the show. I’d be in favor of expanding to 30 or 32 but effectively creating a taxi squad where only 26 or 28 players could be active.

Jay Jaffe: I think the danger of that is just using it for More Reliever Churn, which I dislike.

Jeremy Fox: Tigers season wrecked by some of the worst sequencing/cluster luck in history? They’re underperforming their Pythag by 12 games (!) and their BaseRuns by 11 (!)

Jay Jaffe: Yeah that’s pretty crazy. I’d have to dig to find what the records are — but I know we don’t archive our BaseRuns Projected Standings for some reason, so I could only answer the Pythag one.

Jay Jaffe: I know offhand that the 1993 Mets were -14 (73 projected, 59 actual). not sure if that’s the record but it’s gotta be close.

Eugenio Velez: Hot Opinion: Negative WAR seasons should not count against a Player’s career WAR total. The lowest a Pkayer’s WAR can be for a season aggregating on career should be 0

Jay Jaffe: I can see the argument for excluding them when considering Hall of Fame worthiness, but I’m very lukewarm on that one. I don’t see any reason to stop actually counting what happened though, and negative WAR really does represent play that decreases the likelihood of winning. Now, if we’re talking about a position player who generates -0.5 WAR from a single pitching appearance, that’s one thing — the leverage was so low that it had no actual effect on winning — but we have WPA and context-dependent stats to evaluate such things. The point of WAR is to weigh contributions in a context-neutral environment.

Cris E: Can we see teams calling up their top prospects as a sign that organizations are not expecting to lose a lot of games in 2027?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I don’t really think the two teams are related. Teams are calling up players to evaluate them in a major league setting. It’s the presidents of baseball operations and general managers making these decisions, with the input of others from the organization. Lockout stuff is first and foremost the province of owners, not baseball ops.

JustinPBG: Strong, mature behavior from the Red Sox commentary crew. Even better ‘sorry you were offended’ apology. Just banner behavior

Jay Jaffe: I really thought that was particularly weak sauce on Will Flemming’s part, especially the piling on any player of color – in this case Jazz Chisholm Jr. — for “not playing the game the right way” really does come off as a dog whistle. I am not familiar with Will’s work; i think highly of that of his brother Dave, but to the best of my knowledge Dave has never stepped in it like this or even come close.

Jay Jaffe: In the pieces about Flemming’s half-assed apology, nowhere did I see him address Chisholm directly. If anyone saw an article that counters that, please enlighten me.

Also and more generally: 7-1 is not such a rout that players need to stop competing. It’s not within the realm of allowing a position player to pitch, for example. Steal a base if you judge it necessary.

Gunther042: Hey Jay, what are your thoughts on Alex Bregman’s HOF chances? Obviously his 7-8 WAR seasons are behind him, but IF he can be a plug and play 4-WAR player through this contract and reach 2,000 hits, he should have a chance.

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about Bregman among the players who have improved their chances, see above. He’s never matched his 2018–19 stats in either a traditional or advanced sense, and hasn’t banked a single 5.0 bWAR season outside of those, but he’s on track to do so this year (4.6 so far). If he keeps doing that for a few years he’s got a shot, but in his age-32 season, he’s playing from behind.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know how much of the Astros’ sign-stealing will stick with him. He’s not Jose Altuve, and he’s unlikely to have the kind of career numbers of Carlos Beltrán where somebody applying a less-than-total-disqualification penalty (in their own assessment) would still be swayed to vote for him.

Bud Smith: Just want to note that the “extra innings emergency” where positions pitchers used to pitch seems pretty unlikely now with the Manfred Man

Jay Jaffe: I’m not exactly sure how rare it is without digging through Stathead but on May 18, the Nationals’ Jorbit Vivas entered what had been a 6-6 tie with the Mets in the 12th inning but had devolved into 11-6; he came in and five more runs scored.

Reds Enjoyer: How much credit does a manager deserve for his team’s overperformance of its pythag wins? Can’t help but think Tito deserves some credit for squeezing what will ultimately be 75ish wins out of an awful Reds roster, awfulness that is fully reflected in their run differential.

Jay Jaffe: It’s something to keep an eye, especially because bullpen use probably has the biggest impact on deviation from Pythagorean records (relievers having particularly high/low rates of success in high-leverage situations), but there’s so much that’s still beyond his control. Can’t force players to hit with runners in scoring position, for example.

Matthew VanWinkle: The problem with excluding negative WAR is that it underrates the slow leak a player chasing more traditional milestones can produce.

Jay Jaffe: Yup, that’s one thing.

grandbranyan: re: BaseRuns, looks like past years going back to 2002 are now available via the drop down menu at the top of the page

Jay Jaffe: Holy smokes! Our devs team is so busy and so damn good that even as a staffer I can’t keep up with all the stuff they keep adding.

Jay Jaffe: 2016 Rays were -13 wins in BaseRuns, just to cherrypick one data point

Jay Jaffe: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/pythagorean-baseruns?season=2016

Jay Jaffe: Hot damn

hamiltonthebabeporter: I don’t understand why batters try and swing for the fences when a position player is pitching. Doesn’t this throw off their timing? If I were a batter, I’d either just swing as fluidly and unaggressively as possible or I might even bat from the other side, just so as not to get out of rhythm. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: well, it may be that just swinging for the fences is a BETTER tactic for not throwing off their timing. Just stop thinking about it  and hack away.

hibbert: Yandy Diaz has not challenged a single pitch all season, including last night with 2 outs, trailing by a run in the ninth with a runner on, and with two challenges remaining when he disagreed with both strike 2 and strike 3.  I don’t even have a question, I’m just flabbergasted.

Jay Jaffe: Yeah it’s absolutely wild how much variance there is from player to player. Sal Stewart had a major league high 46 challenges and has won 26 of them, which has been worth four additional runs

Jay Jaffe: Diaz is the only player with zero challenges who has had calls against him challenged by catchers (or pitchers) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&type=…

angryyankeesfan: Much has been made of the mediocrity of the AL, but I recently noticed that the Rockies have the worst team WRC+ in baseball at 91. That seems higher than usual, at least over the last ~5 years (the Pirates and Rockies, at times, have gone below 80 for a season). Is this just a general symptom of parity or part of a larger issue?

Jay Jaffe: With regards to the Rockies, my hunch is that this is a data point about the DePodesta regime finding better players, and likewise for the Pirates. Maybe there’s a competitive balance angle to it but I can’t say offhand.

war2d2: Jay! I think it was on one of Ben’s chats that I posited the change to the roster rules that I think would fix the (in my opinion) awful epidemic of position player pitching as a de facto white flag on a game: First, put a hard limit on pitcher/position player roster split. Something like a max of 12 or 13 pitchers on the roster at any given time. Second, have some ridiculously low inning limit before a player counts against that pitcher limit. Maybe as low a 3 IP or something. What do you think? I’m pretty sure you’d see it go back to 1990s levels pretty quick.

Jay Jaffe: There already IS a hard limit on pitchers on the roster. it’s 13, not counting two-way players (a distinction for which only Shohei Ohtani meets the criteria).

Jay Jaffe: Currently a two-way player is one who in the previous two seasons:

• Pitched at least 20 Major League innings
• Started at least 20 Major League games as a position player or designated hitter, with at least three plate appearances in each of those games

Jay Jaffe: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/two-way-players

Jay Jaffe: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/26-man-roster

Jay Jaffe: I’d love to see the two-way rules loosened

Alby: Why do so many position players lob the ball in when they’re called upon to pitch? They can throw harder than that, obviously. Is the idea to throw off the hitters’ timing?

Jay Jaffe: The primary idea is to not get hurt, by avoiding hard throwing. Secondarily — a distant second — they might provide a wee bit of entertainment for anyone still watching or even playing. But really, it’s more about injury prevention than anything else.

Solitaire: This playoff hunt has got to feel pretty bad for Taylor Ward eh?

Jay Jaffe: The man spent eight seasons with the Angels. A team with the talent to make the playoffs but underperforming has to be a refreshing change.

Jay Jaffe: Also the fact that Ward is hitting .121/.227/.152 ain’t helping, but maybe that was what you were alluding to with your question.

baseballfan115: I really enjoyed your recent article about Peters and particularly love your write ups on HOF candidates. Have you considered writing a biography on an MLB player? (Separate question) If you were to write a biography of a player, who would it be?

Jay Jaffe: I have thought about a couple of biography options but any kind of book is a daunting task, and a bio — one done right, with dozens if not hundreds of interviews of people — is an even more daunting one. I do have an idea for a pitcher who starred in the 1980s and isn’t in the Hall of Fame but that’s about all I can say (no, I don’t think a book would be enough to help his cause).

Jay Jaffe: But thanks for the kind words about the Peters piece and the HOF writeups

Cris E: For fall callups, how about more seats once you get eliminated or more than 6 games out of the wild card?

Jay Jaffe: Not the worst idea

Jeremy Fox: Who do you like for the last two AL playoff spots? Give us your gut feeling.

Jay Jaffe: My hunch is the Astros hold off the Rangers and win the AL West with 82 or 83 wins, and that the Guardians win the 3rd AL Wild Card spot.

Alby: Re: Your book idea. My money’s on Fernando.

Jay Jaffe: Erik Sherman just did an excellent book on Fernando that does a nice job of bringing in the situational context of Chavez Ravine and the more general impact on Latin American fandom https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/nebraska/9781496231017/daybreak-at-c…

maximus74: What happened to Tanner Bibee’s strikeouts? His first two years he was a 25% guy. Now he’s sub 20% and just an innings eater

Jay Jaffe: Offhand i don’t really know. His overall whiff and swinging strike rates are similar. However a couple things stand out:

• He’s cut way back on the use of his sweeper, the whiff rate of which has dropped from 31.4% to 18.4%
• He’s not throwing his four-seamer in the zone as often (48.6%, down from 54.6%). The chase rate against that pitch has spiked (from 18.2% to 28.2%) but batters aren’t chasing his curve or changeup as often.

I’m not sure about pitch shapes or locations but he’s maybe creating less deception with this tack.

ichiro262: Opinion on the Mariners’ path forward? Would you fire Dan and/or Jerry?

Jay Jaffe: I’d have fired Dan Wilson weeks ago. I can see the case for firing Dipoto too, but I’ve seen it suggested that Wilson’s persistence in the job — and the weird insta-hire via which he got it in the first place — indicates that was an ownership-driven move rather than Jerry’s choice. In which case I think Dipoto might deserve to be cut some slack.

Still, what an utter mess of a season in Seattle.

Dylan McNamara: obviously a great play, but objectively, how ridiculous was Cowser’s game ending catch yesterday? Statcast has it at a 45% catch probability bucket, but the amount of reach over the wall needed seems nuts for that probability. But… also not a full tilt sprint, had the time to time his jump carefully, etc

Jay Jaffe: Those catch probabilities are based on opportunity time, distance needed, and direction. They don’t account for wall-scaling or home run robberies or stuff like that.

Jay Jaffe: https://twitter.com/Orioles/status/2094651795238732079

Jay Jaffe: Not sure why the vid isn’t embedding and it seems to be blocked via Jotcast. But you can copy/paste well enough

war2d2: Speaking of position player pitchers, the Brewers left Vaughn out there for more than 50 pitches yesterday. This after leaving Harrison in for 98 pitches in 3.2 IP. I’m not sure if they were short-handed and needed the innings but both of those numbers seemed way high to me. Especially Harrison, who basically was throwing high-stress pitches from the jump.

Jay Jaffe: Yeah those were weird choices and high counts; i’m not sure about the specifics of their previous bullpen usage though

maximus74: why do MLB and MiLB use different balls?

Jay Jaffe: Why anything? Probably money – the minor league balls cost less to make. FWIW Triple-A uses the same balls as the majors.

Bob Loblaw: If Ohtani time traveled back to 1920, is 20 WAR possible?

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical because he’d be asked to pitch much more frequently than he is now. “What is this once-a-week stuff?”

elijahmaxim: Hi Jay, first time in your chat.
Do you have an all-fun favorite (current player) lineup?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the q. I’d have to think harder about this than I have time for in a chat. If I come up with good answers I’ll drop them in the comments.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I’ve got to cut this a bit shorter than usual for reasons too boring to mention. Thanks so much for stopping by!