Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/10/19 by Kiley McDaniel April 10, 2019 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: Hello live from Orlando with Scout in tow. I came back to Florida just for you people. Got the top prep arm in the country last night, Matt Allan 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: here’s some high speed via twitter, two more pitches on the @fangraphs instagram: FanGraphs Prospects @FG_Prospects Last night @kileymcd saw our 15th-ranked 2019 draft prospect, FL prep righty Matt Allan, sit 94-96 and hit 97 until a rain delay. He also broke off a couple 65-grade breaking balls, here’s one of them fangraphs.com/prospects/the-… 10 Apr 2019 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Carter Stewart got canceled for today, so plan is to head to Lakeland to get Spencer Howard/Clearwater tonight, then tomorrow double up noon Freddy Tarnok/Will Stewart with Riley Greene/Dylan Crews matchup at night. 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: to your questions: 12:24 Greg: What did you think about Matthew Alan last night? 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: He was 94-96 t97, with a 60-65 CB and CH only in warmups, then rain hit and he came back more 91-94 with a 60 CB and a little less command. Not the slam dunk top 15 pick type for me specifically, but I’m low on most prep righties and the industry says Allan is the consensus top guy (unless Priester keeps coming on like he did last time out). 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: I’m lower on prep RHP since most of them would go way lower with a tick or two less velo (which comes and goes more than you think, often with less than a week of rest it goes down a couple ticks in pro ball) and, obviously, the injury risk. I lean more toward average stuff with some projection/athleticism and grab a few for day one prices altogether. 12:27 Ben: Have you heard anything about Nate Pearson’s first two outings? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Stuff has been bonkers as expected, 97-99 t100, almost +2 for effective velocity with near 7 foot extension. Hoping I can track him down while I’m in FL. 12:29 Lilith: If neither Abrams nor Witt go in the top four, is it possible that one would be available for the Reds at 7? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, seems about 50/50 that one of them get there 12:30 John: I trade Alec Bohm for Hunter Greene and Anthony Banda in my fantasy league. Tell me that’s a good deal 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Two TJ guys and Bohm has been just okay since signing…so not great so far for either side? We’ll have a first hand account on Bohm coming to the site soon 12:30 Lilith: How high do you think Bishop can realistically rise in the draft? Is top 5 possible? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Sure, sounds like as high as 3 and 4 they are looking for college bats and you could argue he’s the 3rd best one 12:31 Kyle: Kansas City went heavy college last year and you have them linked to Vaughn with their first pick this year also. Do you think they continue that with the picks that follow in the 2nd and 3rd rounds? If so any names they’re being linked to? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: Got a lot of questions about this yesterday. People in the industry think it’s better than 50% that if the draft is today, KC takes Vaughn. When you’re picking 2nd in a draft with a clear-cut top 2 and everyone below that is scrambling to find guys they like and/or cut deals in the top 10, you just take the best guy. 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: Lots of KC fans were shocked that the buzz is their club would consider taking the clear best talent at 2 b/c they tend to take HS players. That doesn’t normally matter in this sort of situation and their GM was seen scouting amateurs for the first time in a long time last year…and they took all college players early. Even if that pick is a product of philosophy, I don’t think we know what KC is trying to do right now in terms of draft leanings, but I don’t think that matters for the first pick. 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: More and more, rebuilding teams now have an ETA in mind and build toward that, so I’m guessing that’s what going on in KC, but I don’t know for sure. 12:34 Walter Sobchak: Julio Rodriguez is going from the DSL to the SAL. How big a jump is that? 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: Really big. DSL is like GCL in terms of talent/tools and weak HS in terms of polish/quality of play. 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: There’s also lots of anecdotal evidence of clubs telling us off the record that the reason why X prospect (almost always from the Caribbean) was bad in his age 18 or 19 Low-A debut is he was in cold weather for the first time and had a really slow start that he couldn’t dig out of. 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: So this speaks to SEA’s confidence in Julio’s makeup to try it anyway 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: And the buzz out of AZ on Julio was really strong, so if he has a good first month, he’ll almost certainly be a 50 FV 12:37 Andrew: Any direction on the Reds at #7? They seem to be right in the middle of the FV 50 guys. 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Nothing we’re particularly confident in right now, but they’re always tied to FL talents, in part b/c Chris Buckley lives in Tampa and I’ve heard them mentioned with Riley Greene. So I’d imagine he’s among the guys in their mix. 12:38 Daniel : Kiley, do you think Dansby Swanson’s hot start is for real or do you think its just a streak? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: Well he’s at a 176 wRC+ right now and ZiPS has him at 90 wRC+ the rest of the year (100 is a league average performance at the plate), so I’ll take ZiPS if I have to pick one, but I’ve always thought Dansby’s best seasons would land around 100 to 115, maybe career avg at 95 to 100. The current career line of 79 isn’t indicative of future results, for me. 12:40 Hinkie: No Cooper Johnson or Jared Horn on your draft Board. Are they not among the top 265 prospects for the draft or just an oversight? 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: Horn doesn’t have the big stuff of HS but you could argue he’s toward the tail end of this. Johnson is an advanced defender, so you could argue him for the back of the rankings as well and I’d bet he gets on there at some point in the 35 or 35+’s. 12:44 Weenie: Who are some minor league guys who have really taken a step forward, whether that be a swing change or increased velo/better stuff? Or is it still too early to determine that? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: We have a running list of guys that will get boosted in the first update of the season, but it’s mostly guys who have been hurt and after one start, the velo shows they’re back to normal. Don’t have it front of me, but Glen Otto with NYY is one that comes to mind. Daniel Lynch held the velo spike late in the year that made us rank him the highest of the outlets for the draft and Logan Gilbert has had the velo bump some thought he would get this year after being overused last spring at Stetson. 12:45 JH: In your professional opinion, would Geraldo Perdomo be cool with me calling him Perd? 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: Would ask him first, but the best Perd on my board lives in Pawnee 12:46 Turncow: Have you seen Turnbull pitch? What does he need to do to be a decent MLB starter? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, a couple times as a pro and in college, Big dude with good stuff, just 40-45 command in most situations, so it’s more good multi-inning or late reliever than traditional starter. Could still be a #4 starter, though 12:47 Sam: You have any plans to make it out to chapel hill this year? You intrigued by anybody besides Busch on the team? 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Probably get one more game with them, but got one in GT last weekend. Ike Freeman is on the draft radar for this year, along with the whole weekend rotation to varying degrees (Tyler Baum, Gianluca Dalatri, Austin Bergner). Brandon Martorano and Joey Lancelotti also of interest this year. Not a ton of buzzy underclassmen, but Danny Seretti may be the best of the bunch, Aaron Sabato and Austin Love also on the radar. 12:50 Jo-Nathan: Watch out for Florida Man! 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: how do you know that’s not me 12:50 Boone: What’s the baseball version of the sumo-wrestler hockey goalie, and why wouldn’t it work? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: righty/lefty low-slot matchup guys that rotate for 9 innings between pitcher and first base? not a perfect analogy 12:51 Freddy: Korey Lee has been on fire recently for CAL. What’s his draft stock looking like? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Saw him, liked him and listed him on the board last year, then he had a tough season. Good to see he’s back. Catchers always get rounded up, so maybe 3rd-5th? 12:52 Red Sox: Not a prospects question but more for your industry expertise: why do my Red Sox suck? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: LOL got a couple of these. I think they’ll be fine this year, but we’ve discussed how the future is a little more risky with all the core players having contracts ending and no clear everyday guys in the system coming. They should be able to lock up Betts and some others, but there will be some losses. 12:53 Matt: Higher upside: Tirso Ornealas or Julio Rodriguez? Higher chance of reaching it? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Ornelas is more of a hit tool type and safer, Julio is more power-focused and riskier, but that may not be the case in a few months if Julio outperforms Ornelas 12:54 BlueJayMatt: The Blue Jays recently traded for some international bonus money – who can they sign with it? Will Trump’s recent deal cancelling impact who they can sign? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: The Cuba group was for the next period, starting July 2nd, so any trades of that money have to wait until July 2nd to happen…so trades now of int’l money don’t impact that class 12:55 Low 3rd: Would you now consider Nick Senzel an injury-prone player? Will stints on the IL be the norm for him? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: Starting to move that way, but I wouldn’t say it yet. 12:55 Steve : Kiley, you guys stated yesterday that Rutschman and Vaughn right now are in line to go 1-2 and that both Chicago at 3 and Miami at 4 are seriously considering college guys — a development that would allow Witt to drop to Detroit at 5. If this scenario happens, based on what you’ve heard how likely are the Tigers to take Witt? What names have you heard Detroit connected to? Thanks! 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: Guys we talk to still have Abrams ahead of Witt, but any one team may disagree with that. Not clear what’s happening outside of the top 4 to anyone, really 12:56 Kap: Is manoah a top 10 pick? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: Possible, but I’d guess 11-15 12:56 Scout: Pupper update? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: She is in the next room. I’m staying with a friend that has two more dogs, so the house is very pupperful 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: they’re all napping quietly and the mini aussie that looks like a tiny fox has settled in as my armrest 12:58 Logan: You have Michael Busch listed as a 1B on the board now, and I think he was a RF on there previously. Is this because you now project he’s a 1B only fit? Has the athleticism deteriorated? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: The corner OF looks were below average, so seems like 1B is more likely now. There’s a nonzero chance a club could try him at 2B and do some aggressive shifting around him ala late stages of Daniel Murphy, which I’m very into. I’m told Busch played a little bit of 2B on the Cape. 12:59 Jo-Nathan: Should we be surprised that Drew Waters was assigned to AA? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: I was, so I’ll allow it 12:59 Ryan: What makes Michael Busch a top ten prospect? He seems like a bat first, 1B only and he is hitting under .300 this year… Is Matt Thaiss an accurate comp for him? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Thaiss was a 50 raw power guy in college and Busch is a 60 and gets to most of it. I mean look at this swing https://www.instagram.com/p/BwAHFyAgyzp/ Thaiss did not swing like this in college and to a degree still doesn’t. 1:00 Baloo: I have a weird fixation on Jacob Robson who has never been considered a prospect of any note. He’s a small dude with little-to-no power, but he’s apparently a 70 runner, has never put up a wRC+ below 119 over a season, with supposedly great plate discipline. Given the recent trends toward trying not to overlook guys just because they are smaller, shouldn’t he get a little more credit, or am I missing something? Regardless, I’d really love to see if he could translate any of his success to the MLB. He’s can’t be much worse than Mikie Mahtook is right now, right? Give him a look until Jacoby is healthy. 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 4th OF for us, has lost a step since the 70 runner he was in college and there isn’t another standout tool, but he’s a good player. Was an others of note on the DET list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-detroit-tigers/ 1:02 Keith: Any players connected with the Angels in the upcoming draft? Is it likely they target another athlete like Hampton or Ealy this year? 1:02 Kiley McDaniel: There has been some buzz of this and upside/risky players in general have been mentioned. It’s interesting, to me at least, that more progressive clubs that are into metrics on amateur players tend to look for good qualities and believe they can teach the rest, rather than the old version of progressive in the draft that wanted a polished performer 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: We keep getting told to move up possible relievers/smaller framed/iffy command types with velo and spin rates because someone will take them in the 2nd round. And athletes with raw power and some sense of the strike zone move past polished college hitters with average tools 1:04 Jo-Nathan: When can we expect your NHSI notes to be published? 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: Well I wasn’t at the event, so it may take awhile 1:05 TJ: Might be a dumb question but are baseball ops analysts and lower level employees required to attend all home games? It just seems like the work they do is important before the game and then the game 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: Generally not required but heavily encouraged, unless they’re on the road for work 1:06 Pete Davidson: Can you give us a quick tools/scouting breakdown on Keoni Cavaco please? Is he a guy with average tools across the board or does he have any plus tools? How high can he realistically go right now? 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: All the tool grades are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=2&so… 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: 60 raw, solid avg at 3B, 50 bat 1:06 Dylan: Would Andrew Vaughn still have been a top-3 pick 5 years ago? Or has the success off other R/R college 1B like Alonso and Hoskins lowered the stigma against that kind of profile? 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: Go look at his numbers. Almost no one has ever done this before. 1:07 SJGator75: What’s the floor for Rutledge in this year’s draft? Late day 1? 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: Probably comp round, barring injury 1:07 Kevin J: What is your take on JJ Goss and Josh Wolf? 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: Like them both, Goss is in play for back half of first to comp, chance for two 60’s and SP traits at times. Wolf is of slighter build but has just as much stuff, more 2nd round to early 3rd. 1:10 Matt Damon: Why is Espino falling! 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: Alright I’ll take one more time to be as diplomatic as possible on this. He was 96-100 (give or take, depending on the gun) in his first start at Hoover on March 8th, then I saw him March 21 and he was 92-95 t96. I talked to scouts that saw him the start between those and the start or two after the one I saw and they all said they got the same velo I did. 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: As stated earlier, I’m lower on HS RHP in general for the risk of the whole demographic 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Specifically on Espino, there’s no projection, a really long arm action, and it’s mostly FB/breaker (though he has two breakers) at this point. I think it’s a positive for him to be throwing more 92-95 because the odds of blowing out when you sit 98 as a teenager for years at a time gets really close to a certainty, unfortunately by looking at the examples we have of that. When you’re looking at teenage pitchers and trying to project 5-10 years in the future what they’ll be, health is the biggest factor, so clubs are very particular about how a pitcher does it, thus the drastically varying rankings of HS pitchers bc every team has their own version. 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: So, when talking to scouts about how they rank the HS RHP, essentially all of them are throwing 92-95, give or take a tick at this point, and almost all of them flash 55 to 65 breaking balls, so the ones with a little more projection and polish tend to be ahead of Espino. Right now, that top tier is 15 through 40 (Allan, Malone, Priester, Leiter, Espino, Goss, Barco) and some teams will picking in that range will not consider taking some of them due to size, arm action, they don’t like HS RHP in general, medical, etc. There’s lots of variance in the ranking from team to team, but the guys at the top/middle/bottom of that tier tend to be in that general spot for most clubs. 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: And it’ll change between here and draft day, I want all of those kids to stay healthy and succeed and get drafted high. 1:22 Teft: What is Kolby Allard? 1:22 Kiley McDaniel: Backend starter 1:22 Pete Davidson: From a stuff standpoint what are you hearing on Nick Lodolo this year? Is his rise up the boards due more to a combo of performance and lack of college pitching or have any of his pitches (or command) improved from where they were a year ago? 1:23 Kiley McDaniel: Stuff has improved throughout the spring. Opening weekend Eric saw two 60’s FB/CB, very few CH and fine but not great command. One recent start a scout told me he was two 60’s but it was FB/CH and the command was 50 or 55. Other times he’s shown three 6’s and 5 command. If he closes strong, he’ll go in the top 10. 1:23 #3 : How’s Lodolo’s velo? 1:24 Kiley McDaniel: 92-95, t96, give or take a bit in any given start 1:24 Jon Jones: How confident are scouts on Nasim Nunez hit tool? Is his cieling a 50 hit with like 60 defense or can the hit be above average to plus? 1:24 Kiley McDaniel: I’d probably go 55 hit, 40-45 future game power, 55-60 glove and run 1:24 #3 : Any new news on July 2 guys? White Sox connected to 22yo Yolbert Sanchez? 1:25 Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard much buzz there but we know he has at least one offer for 2019 that’s well into the 7 figures, so he may be holding out for that. 1:25 Guest: Glenn Otto looks to be a bullpen arm still or chance for starter? 1:25 Kiley McDaniel: Chance to start, but I think it’ll end up being RP 1:26 Rey Diablo: It’s super early, I know, but Glasnow is at .3 WAR and Meadows is at .4 while Archer is at .1; what are the chances both Glasnow and Meadows out perform Archer this season? 1:28 Kiley McDaniel: I think I proposed this scenario at the time of the trade? I’ve always been a little skeptical of Archer going forward given that, at one point recently, and possibly still now, he had thrown the most SLs in the recorded history of baseball over a 2-3 year period. That isn’t guaranteed to spell doom, but I generally bet against pitchers improving/holding performance for a really long time and that fact meant I was more bearish than the baseline. Also he was doing this b/c his fastball was getting hit really hard, and velo tends to go down over time, so that would only tend to get worse, all things else being equal. Lots of circumstantial stuff, to be sure, but not stuff I liked. 1:28 Jon jones: What round do you expect Logan Wyatt, Spencer Brickhouse, Bryant Packard, or Matthew Barefoot go in? 1:29 Kiley McDaniel: 3rd-5th for all of them, more 4th-5th likely 1:29 Phillie Phanatic: tippy top best outcome scenario for Jordyn Adams is what we all thought Byron Buxton was going to be, right? 1:29 Kiley McDaniel: Yeah it’s that kind of raw physical ability 1:29 Caleb: Did you see the Ozuna play?? 1:30 Kiley McDaniel: Haha yes. I know it’s hard to both track the ball and climb the wall, but to track it then turn your head and climb and assume the ball goes where you thought it would…that seems like not the best way to do that? He could track it the whole way and jump at the wall if necessary and cover like 75% as much ground and maintain options, right? 1:31 skardatzke: Hi Kiley! Love your work! Do you have any old prospect info on Jorge Polanco, specifically FV and 80-20 (20-80?) Tool scores? 1:31 Kiley McDaniel: I believe he was a 45 and a 50 in the minor and was an above hit/field/run on the tool grades? 1:32 Kiley Quips <3: Sneaking in some love as I’ve slacked making it to your chats recently. Flames better have been stoked and esteems crushed! 1:32 Keefths: when is Jasson dominguez gona start playing in the minors ? 1:32 Kiley McDaniel: next summer 1:32 PatEdMartin: Is Dylan Crews a catcher at the next level? Also, any chance he plays in college? 1:33 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like a pretty hard no on the catching. Used to do it earlier in HS and I’m told he doesn’t want to go back. I would assume he’s a pro guy, but you never know on any specific kid’s situation. 1:33 Mike G: Derek Hill’s arm, glove and speed all got graded down when he stopped hitting. Did his tools all regress or were they all over hyped as a prep? 1:34 Kiley McDaniel: Slowly regressed. At Area Codes before his senior year, it was multiple 80 run times and highlight reel plays in CF, projected as a 60 or 70 defender. Neither tool is that good anymore. 1:34 Caleb: Plays like that really are a big part of the joy of baseball though. We should all thank Ozuna. 1:34 Kiley McDaniel: Oh it was super earnest and entertaining. I’m sure OF instructors are using this as a techable moment today 1:35 Ben Affleck: Who’s Matt Damon? 1:35 Bro: Bro, do you even lift? 1:35 Kiley McDaniel: Wow, two questions from Affleck in one chat 1:35 Timmy : Me wife left me 1:35 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 1:35 Kiley McDaniel: I’ll see you guys next week!