Kiley McDaniel Trade Value Chat – 7/19/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is sitting in her bed next to me, resting after we Trade Valued so hard it affected our sleep patterns.

Kiley McDaniel: Check out the series via the widget at the top of any page to see the whole deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/

Kiley McDaniel: some other pieces that have come out in the last week to check out if you haven’t already:

Kiley McDaniel: Craig on some meta stuff with the Trade value list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-value-series-skews-young-again/

Kiley McDaniel: Eric on a weird TBR-TEX trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-and-rangers-swap-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: Herzenberg on some Cape looks: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-cape-cod-league/

Kiley McDaniel: Monday’s big list of prospects movers on THE BOARD: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-adjusted-several-prospects-rankings/

Kiley McDaniel: And more from today!: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-weeks-prospect-movers/

Kiley McDaniel: also the DSL Yankees are doing wacky things again:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

The DSL Yankees won a game 38-2 on July 3rd, setting all kinds of records.

Guys, they are at it again. Posted a 19-spot in the 2nd inning today: milb.com/scores/rookie/…

19 Jul 2019

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Hank: Can you elaborate on the Albies silver bullet comment about spot in the batting order?

Kiley McDaniel: I follow/hear enough from Braves that there seems to always be a “oh Albies is making more contact with a swing tweak/new spot in the order/new approach, etc.” like he both needs to and can be “fixed” just because he swings too much. Maybe that’ll happen one day but I also just think that’s kinda who he is

Guest: Any further comment on Betts? Falling from 6th to off the list in a year seems… noteworthy

Kiley McDaniel: He was 55-60, so not far off the list but this was covered on the pod with Meg, which should be coming out in the next hour or two.

Kiley McDaniel: If you look at the spreadsheet I make for this list, there’s tons of guys with like 15 WAR in controlled years for $50 million guaranteed, or something like that. The lowest pure WAR figures are like 11-13 and it’s usually elite hitters with 2.5 years of control (Baez, Freeman, Bryant would be guys like that this year) which is like a 5 WAR, elite hitter that’s likely making some real money.

Kiley McDaniel: When a hitter has 1.5 years of control and its super elite like a 6-7 WAR player, you’re buying like 10 WAR at most and Betts isn’t that guy this year. At least if it’s a Sale-like 6-7 WAR pitcher you get two playoff runs and can justify him close to the 2.5 pitchers.

Kiley McDaniel: This is also generally how the industry sees it and also I don’t think the Red Sox could get any of the top 50 for Betts unless it’s a guy on the end of the list and a team is really desperate and even that seems like a stretch.

Kiley McDaniel: So, even fringe MVP-level hitters with 1.5 years of control basically can’t make the list. Those guys aren’t traded for top-5 overall prospects in baseball. This also doesn’t mean that Mookie isn’t one of the top 5 or so players in the game. It also means that the 2.5 years of control hitters on this years list have basically no shot of making it next year unless they post a 10 WAR season.

Ian: You ranked players according to their values to median market teams.  Players are almost always traded to the team that values them most.  If you ranked players according to the highest valuation, how would that change the exercise?  How different would the top of the list look?  I assume the biggest changes would be high salaried players with elite performance, like Scherzer and Trout.

Kiley McDaniel: Well it would be impossible because the Rays list and the Yankees list would be completely different so Trout is maybe even higher for NYY but isn’t even on the list for TBR…so I should both move Trout up and down? Or just rank him based on what the team that wants him most thinks? So everyone gets rounded up? Every guy is shaded down from what the team that wants him most thinks. Maybe that’s just the same list?

Keith : How big of a jump is it from the AZL/GCL to the Pioneer/Penn league? Should stats from the Pioneer/Penn league be taken seriously?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s going from facing mostly raw/toolsy teenagers and small college players in the AZL/GCL to facing polished college players in the NYP/PIO. It’s different but not like a giant jump.

Mike L: How is Luis Robert 22 on the board?  He seems to be a consensus top 3-5 hitting prospect (I think he’s #1 ahead of Wander)

Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t talked to one person that’s a professional in baseball that has him over Franco. You could argue for him being higher given the huge upside but we also kinda led that charge ranking him in the 20’s/30’s overall before he even played a pro game, after a long layoff when he defected. There’s been injuries, approach issues and a lack of bulk performance along with high BABIPs, a lack of TrackMan data and he’s also 22. There just isn’t enough certainty with what we know now to put him up with that top tier of guys. He certainly could get there, though, so you aren’t totally off base.

Kiley McDaniel: And when we’re talking about the top of the prospect rankings, these things are run by dozens of people in the industry. This isn’t to say everything is correct but this does reflect a consensus and when there’s the potential to shoot up, like Nate Pearson or Robert or Kopech, we note it as a high variance type, which Robert is.

Acuna Matata: How does Degrom clock in at 24, but Sale doesn’t make it at all. The contracts are nearly identical by AAV, opt-out timing, deferrals etc., and Sale is younger with a longer track record of success and a better 2020-21 projection. Sale has even been better by xFIP and SIERRA in 2019, the two best future ERA estimators

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t see any deferrals in the deal, Sale’s velo is down 1.7 mph this year and also, because I know this question means you ignored/didn’t read the intro…the list isn’t my opinion. Every single person I talked to said Sale’s deal was a negative surplus value because of the length/opt out and signs of decline and everyone not in a tiny market said deGrom’s was a positive surplus value…which is a cheaper deal due to the deferrals, so the guarantee is almost $50 million cheaper if I remember the figures correctly.

Gila Monster: Thor for Gore, who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: SD. Got some negative feedback on Thor being the type that is more popular with fans than execs

Benji: How far off was Matt Boyd for an honorable mention? By your metrics,  would his value match up with Kyle Tucker?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s literally on the honorable mentions. Did anyone read that article? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-intro-and-honorable-menti…

Kiley McDaniel: CTRL+F, my guys

Kiley McDaniel: and ladies

Kiley McDaniel: Tucker is a little steep. Not that the surplus values don’t line up but I don’t think Boyd is the level of guy that gets one of those elite prospects. I would shoot for more back end of a top 100 type and a couple more 45s/high 40s as a reasonable return.

Gumby: Are there any updates from scouts concerning if Oneil Cruz could make it work at shortstop?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean he’s 6’7 so no one thinks he’s actually gonna stay there and no one has thought that for years since that’s never happened in the history of baseball

Kiley McDaniel: but also, his defensive metrics from Clay Davenport are actually solidly positive, so why not leave him there and just see? http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2018/2018pagePITrealALL.shtml

Fangraphs Reader: What is driving the disparity in value between Alvarez and Alonso?  Alonso obviously has a larger sample size in the majors, but Alvarez is 2+ years younger and has 1 more year of control.

Kiley McDaniel: Alvarez’s lack of bulk production and seeing how pitchers adjust. I think he’s on the list if we do it like a month later.

Brendon: It’s been really fun to watch the development of the Jays young catching tandem, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno! You guys seem to be ahead of the rest of the industry in reflecting this with your new rankings, kudos!

Kiley McDaniel: Let’s hope we’re right!

Purple Mays Haze: I assume that all MLB orgs have their own “projection” systems for their minor leaguers…how many do you suspect are ‘proprietary’ (built in-house) vs licensed/purchased/customized versions from the publicly available ones (Steamer, PECOTA, etc.)?

Kiley McDaniel: So I’ve worked for some teams and they’re all proprietary but most models, for drafts or just projections, have some element of a public aspect whether it’s a public projection or public draft rankings or public MILB prospect rankings, it’s just usually a very small element used for regression purposes. The teams have so much info that the public stuff isn’t really that useful.

weezy: I am curious of how volatility/sensitivity the trade value rankings. Obviously this list looks a lot different than it did last year. How much change is expected before the end of the season, for instance?

Kiley McDaniel: Certain guys that go off in the coming months will move a lot. I think Acuna probably jumped like 10 spots (from 17 to about 7) in mid-July to September last year, we just don’t do updates of this list.

Kiley McDaniel: Yordan is a good example of a guy we expect to jump

AD: Given his contract, do you think Kingery makes next year’s Top 50 if he can maintain 120 wRC+ as a superutility type?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, there’s just a lot of BABIP and K’s in there now, so I’d feel much better about it with a bigger sample

Jason N: Trade Value series is awesome!  If you did one just for the trade deadline, would you consider any relievers for the list?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really. Felipe Vazquez and Josh Hader made the honorable mentions but weren’t in the top 60.

ben: Is there justification for players and managers yelling at umpires on a regular basis? In what other line of work would this be considered acceptable?

Kiley McDaniel: well traditional allows it to continue and it’s entertaining. the logic for doing it is:
1. fire up/motivate a team that needs it
2. try to get benefit of the doubt for later calls
3. free therapeutic release

Kiley McDaniel: i wouldn’t say that publicly screaming in someone’s face is necessarily the best way to accomplish these goals but also it looks kinda fun and i want to do it

Conor: As a follow up, how likely do you think it is that we a consensus 70 FV pitching prospect in the next 5-10 years?

Kiley McDaniel: with pitch design and nutrition and whatnot improving, I’ll say over 50%

Hello: Where would Acuna been had he not signed his extension?

Kiley McDaniel: Still #1

Spencer: What are you seeing when you describe a prospect as being a “twitchy athlete” and what are the positive and negative implications of this trait?

Kiley McDaniel: athletic, smooth actions, explosive movements. only real negative is sometimes when they’re younger and don’t have body control yet they’re a little out of control but scouts are always excited to buy in at that point, seeing the upside

Daniel: How did you get a Manny Machado level player for Tatis? Just back calculate his stats with a .340 BABIP?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean you could do that but mostly just age/body/tools more than strictly diving into the performance

Tim: Swaggerty seems to be struggling. Why is he still ranked so high?

Kiley McDaniel: 1. he has really good tools
2. he’s age-appropriate for an elite prospect in High-A
3. he’s hitting better than league average and has been above average defensively in center field

other than that, you nailed it

Aaron: How does Eloy not make it and Vladito does?

Kiley McDaniel: baseball people think Vlad is a generational bat like 7 or 8 hit tool and think Eloy is more of a 5 hit tool. the rest isn’t amazingly different

Daniel: Do you put much stock into Tatis’ low xwOBA? His xwOBA is only .333, which is significantly lower than a Machado type player.

Kiley McDaniel: GUYS HE’S 20, HE WILL GET BETTER

Kiley McDaniel: Machado at age 20

Kiley McDaniel: 97 wRC+ over 51 games

Kiley McDaniel: 3ish WAR if annualized

Kiley McDaniel: like please do the smallest bit of research

Kiley McDaniel: this is less than 15 seconds

Cat Latos: MEOW

Kiley McDaniel: This is addressed on the podcast and let me tell you, reader, Cats of any type are decidedly not (clap emoji) for (clap emoji) me (clap emoji)

Colby: Gavin Lux has been out of his mind to start AAA and been pretty ridiculous since changing the swing.  Will he be the reason the Dodgers win the world series this year?

Kiley McDaniel: okay this may be back to a little too excited about a young player but i like where you’re headed

Mark: I keep reading headlines that the Dodgers need to trade top prospects for an elite reliever. Do people not understand that holding onto the prospects continues to make the Dodgers a better and better team, and is a core reason why this team is argued to be better than the previous ones?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean it seems like the majority of fans would run a team like they were George Steinbrenner in the early 90s

Kiley McDaniel: but they also are generally not billionaires so this approach may have some pitfalls

Adam: Do you have any personal favorite young pitchers/hitters to watch? (Max age:18)

Kiley McDaniel: this feels like a trap

Dallas: You touched on it but hopefully you can go even further here but where is Ohtani ranked if he gave up pitching and played RF everyday and got 650 plate appearances per year?

Kiley McDaniel: probably 30-40 range?

Kiley McDaniel: it’s like a 4 WAR RF with 4.5 years of control. I think I’d take that guy over Hoskins? Right around Alonso?

Dallas: If Carlos Correa signed a Bogaerts extension this off-season (which would include arb years so not really apples-to-apples comp) would he rise up the list?

Kiley McDaniel: yep

Bro Thor: If a new franchise were to be approved in Vegas or Portland, how’d they go about acquiring enough talent to compete at the Major league level? What about filling minor league rosters?

Kiley McDaniel: EXPANSION DRAFT

Kiley McDaniel: sorry got a little excited because that may be the most Kiley/Eric thing that could ever exist

Kiley McDaniel: all 30 clubs have to protect a certain number of players of certain levels of experience/40 man/positions, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: expansion teams draft a year before they have teams, start with affiliates for a year, then the MLB team plays, probably aggressively grab released/indy ball guys/play bulk approach in J2/draft

Kiley McDaniel: a note to potential owners of expansion teams:

Kiley McDaniel: i will be your GM for 2 years for just free food/housing

Fang Raphs: Did you peep any of those anagrams posted in the Trade Value series’ comments? There’s some gold in there…

Kiley McDaniel: the most redeeming part of the comments section imo

The Kid: Great series. Ozzie was the only player that jumped out in the top 10. If you assume he is a 4-win player through the life of his contract, and hold $/war constant w/ no inflation, his NPV is still somewhere in the ballpark of $200mm in surplus value. That contract is such a bargain, it is hard to imagine there are 7 more valuable assets than that. Love the work though.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s an example of a topic I touched on throughout the series where the asset value calculation doesn’t take into account WAR over a really long period versus concentrated WAR in shorter periods. Also not everyone in baseball (I think they’re being nitpickers) thinks Ozzie will be a 4 WAR player for the next 5+ years

Stephen: What’s your take on these three yankees minor leaguers: prospects or no?: Luis Gil, RHP (A), Nick Nelson, RHP (AA) &  Maikol Escotto (DSL) by the way DSL Yanks now leading DSL Angels 22-1

Kiley McDaniel: They are all in good spots in our ever-updating NYY prospect list on THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

PS: Last year Ezequiel Duran was a popular sleeper pick to breakout as a prospect.  Currently running a 163 wRC+ in Low A.  Anything you’ve seen or heard that makes you think it’s happening now?

Kiley McDaniel: Tweeted this just before the chat but he’s going off as we thought he would last year. Last year was explained to us as swing tinkering, getting overaggressive to try to get his numbers back and a snowballing of tough breaks. Clean start this year, so back to where he was initially. It’s not like he was injured or the tools changed. This happens with youngsters sometimes.

Adrian B: Any Team USA guys who have stood out to you beyond the big names?

Kiley McDaniel: Justin Foscue 2B at Mississippi State stood out. Love me some Burl Carraway power LHR at Dallas Baptist. I’d also like to take credit/blame for calling his plus curveball the BURL CURL.

Roberto: Do you have injury concerns for Cade Cavalli? Highly ranked but was shut down for a bit this spring and has hardly pitched at all for USA team.

Kiley McDaniel: He was also surprisingly good. 93-98, does it easy, plus breaker, pretty athletic. He will take off up the list if he stays healthy and produces because it’s what scouts want it to look like.

Daniella Correa: Correa’s drop seems heavy given his performance and the injuries largely being “flukes” and unlikely to impact his future value.

Kiley McDaniel: Well every guy, all else equal, will drop like 25-30 spots going from 3.5 years to 2.5 years of control

Kiley McDaniel: Baez is 34th with 2.5 years and I can all but guarantee he won’t make next year’s list

Kiley McDaniel: (prove me wrong, Javy)

Westeros: I hear about Track-man all the time. But what I don’t understand is the equipment so cumbersome that it needs to be installed by professionals/ or is scouting industry have scouts who show up before game time and set up the cameras?  Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: It’s like a 3 foot by 3 foot thing that looks like a solar power deal you put on your roof. You can easily spot them in the stadium because of the size/specific look and it’s always up high behind home plate, around the press box.

Kiley McDaniel: they’re stationary and get installed once

David: “my dudes” works, everyone knows girls can be dudes

Kiley McDaniel: hmm i’m gonna need a ruling on this

Kiley McDaniel:

Sam: You should do an article about players trade value and how you would rank them.  Would be pretty cool imo.

Kiley McDaniel: I might do this!

Off the Handle: How does one pronounce Luis Robert? I haven’t heard “Robert” pronounced as a native Spanish word ever before and have never heard anyone say his name who definitely knew the right way.

Kiley McDaniel: We call him LouBob but I believe it’s roe-BEAR

Savages: Can you go in depth on how Severino fell off the list? Seems like he has ace potential and a good bit of control

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of concern about what he’ll look like when he comes back

Juiced Up Kyle: Any update on Mitch Haniger’s ruptured testicle?

Kiley McDaniel: nooooooooooooooooooooo

v: Just wanted to say I really like the format of you giving the industry consensus. It’s not often fans really get any insight into how teams value players overall, so it’s pretty illuminating. That us readers seem to have a lot of issues with it shows how big the disconnect there can be.

Kiley McDaniel: wait, how did this get through

Karen: May I speak to your manager, please?

Kiley McDaniel: ok this makes more sense

Brian: Do you work on the top 50 throughout the year or do you pick a day (June 1?) and basically create that years list from scratch?

Kiley McDaniel: B but now I’m thinking it should be year-round

Kiley McDaniel: and published more than once a year

Bill Simmons: I both read the article and control F’ed and notice you never once gave me credit for being the first ever person for thinking about ranking players.

Kiley McDaniel: this is actually how i read any article that may possibly mention me

Inspector Brosseau: Is there going to be a negative trade value list?

Kiley McDaniel: i mean i don’t really want to do that but maybe someone else at FG wants to?

Scoops McClatchy: Do you think Nick Senzel will play the infield again?

Kiley McDaniel: yes

Yelling: The ESPN podcast says the calls Boone yelled about had 20 and 4 (!) percent chances of being called strikes, and then after the toss, not a single called strike was below 60%. It… worked? I hate yelling. But…

Kiley McDaniel: i guess it can be an effective form of shaming people that are bad at their jobs if they also feel guilty for being bad?

Kiley McDaniel: i don’t like to yell but i also will not hesitate if the situation calls for it

Kiley McDaniel: In a French-ass restaurant
Hurry up with my damn croissants

https://genius.com/Kanye-west-i-am-a-god-lyrics

(not that) James: When I’m next in ATL to visit the family, you can scream in my face in public.  Ponce City Market, Grant Park, Mary’s, wherever.

Kiley McDaniel: Let’s get 100 layer donuts at five daughters in PCM and then i’ll berate you for picking the wrong donut

J: If I had the ability to throw people out of my office and fine them but had to put up with being yelled at to do it, you bet your ass I’m doing it.

Kiley McDaniel: i think we’ve found a new way to solve problems in the workplace

Nils: Can you expand on what execs are negative about regarding Thor?

Kiley McDaniel: Enough injury hiccups that you’re worried given how hard he throws about how healthy he’ll be. Not much control remaining, big asking price was the reason he wasn’t dealt this past offseason so it’s gonna cost you retail

(not that) James: No one gets better at anything ever.  It’s science.

Logan: Is The Board effectively your exclusively-minor-league trade value chart? If not, how would that chart differ from The Board?

Kiley McDaniel: basically, yes

Kiley McDaniel: some small move this guy up/down a few spots since our opinion is in the rankings rather than a pure industry consensus

Kiley McDaniel: and maybe some “this type of prospect seems to be over/undervalued by this type of club”

Miner: Have you ever scouted an independent league game?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope

Matt: Who are some guys to catch on the Cape this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Talent is down this year, so not the best year to go track down a potential top 10 pick, but lots of top 3-4 round types

Socks: Explain to me how Alex Dickerson isn’t top 5 trade value

Kiley McDaniel: oh we’re there, aren’t we?

Fortunate Rodent: Burrito or taco?  Which meat?

Kiley McDaniel: taco

Kiley McDaniel: depends on the place but i’ve been into beef cheek and beef tongue as the fattier cow cuts. usually the best at the authentic places are the carnitas or (if they have it) al pastor

Eric: As a Yankees fan, I’m disappointed not to see Jasson Dominguez in the top 50 trade value.

Kiley McDaniel: lol like at least a dozen teams have never seen him even play in an organized game, much less a pro game

Bill: https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/video/luis-robert-reveals-how-pronou… Here’s a video of Luis Robert pronouncing his name. It’s not Roe-bear. Closer to the English Robert but with a rolled R and subtle T. Honestly super hard to pronounce and you’re best off just going with the English Robert.

(not that) James: I’d probably pick a bagel or danish or something.

Kiley McDaniel: OH NOW I’M GONNA YELL AT YOU ON THE INTERNET, BUDDY

Desperate Times: Dude.  You did a TON of work on the Trade Value series.  Was fun to read.  Thanks from a guy that enjoys using the internet for free.

Kiley McDaniel: thanks!

Brian: I got pulled away and wasn’t able to see who was #1 on the list. If Tatis is #2, is it fair to say that Shields is #1?

Fortunate Rodent: If Haniger had two working acorns, do you think his trade value would have fared better?

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: See you guys next week, thanks for reading and especially to you who understand my sense of humor, you guys/gals/dudes are the best.