Matt Chapman Cashes In Early… or Late

Matt Chapman is the lone member of the so-called “Boras Four” — the quartet of top-tier free agents who remained unsigned when spring training began — who has played well enough to merit consideration in the postseason awards voting, not only with respect to a potential fifth Gold Glove but also down-ballot MVP mentions. As I noted last week, from among the group that also included Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell, the 31-year-old third baseman was also the one who appeared headed towards a long-term extension with his current team. Late Wednesday night, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Chapman and the Giants had agreed upon a six-year, $151 million extension, one that replaces the final two years of his existing deal, both of which were preceded by player options.

The contract ultimately validates Chapman’s decision to turn down what was reported as a six-year, $120 million extension offer from the Blue Jays — with whom Chapman spent 2022–23 — at some point last season. While the Jays pursued Chapman to some extent early in his free agency, the Mariners, Cubs, and Giants were the only other teams publicly connected to him. Chapman finally agreed to a three-year, $54 million contract on March 2. While it included opt-outs after 2024 and ’25 as well as a mutual option after ’26, it was the only deal from among those of the Boras Four that came in with a lower average annual value than projected by our FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agents list. List wrangler Ben Clemens estimated a five-year, $120 million deal ($24 million AAV), while the median crowdsource one was for four years and $80 million ($20 million AAV). Where Chapman wound up with an $18 million AAV, his new pact raises that to $25.17 million, a figure that ranks fifth among current third basemen:

Chapman will receive a $1 million signing bonus and then annual salaries of $25 million through 2030. His contract does not contain any opt-outs, but it does have a full no-trade clause.

Chapman is the rare Boras client — though hardly the only one — to agree to an extension in-season rather than testing free agency. Jose Altuve, Elvis Andrus, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos González and Stephen Strasburg are among the Boras clients who signed such extensions during their walk years, all before becoming first-time free agents; Strasburg and Bogaerts eventually opted out and landed even bigger deals. Adrian Beltré, another Boras client, went through free agency three times before agreeing to an extension covering his final two years with the Rangers. The point is that contrary to what some may believe, Boras’ strategy isn’t a one-size-fits-all march towards free agency. If a client is happy where he is and can get his desired salary and security, so be it.

Chapman’s California ties are a big factor in his staying put. A native of Victorville, he was drafted by the A’s out of Cal State-Fullerton in the first round in 2014 and spent five seasons (2017–21) with Oakland before being traded to Toronto. In joining the Giants this spring, he reunited with manager Bob Melvin, who piloted the A’s during his entire tenure, and third base coach Matt Williams, who served in the same capacity for Oakland in 2018–19. “This feels like home for me,” he said. “It feels like I’ve been here for a lot longer than one season… I feel really comfortable in the Bay Area, and I just love being here.”

“I think in this case, Matt made it clear to me all along that he had every piece of information we could give him and he knew what he wanted to do,” said Boras. “For me, that’s the most rewarding part. Matt really made a choice, and he’s happy about where he wants to play and who he wants to play for.”

Though he’s been the only member of the Boras Four to avoid the injured list thus far, Chapman did not get off to a flying start with the Giants, hitting just .222/.266/.385 (80 wRC+) in March and April. His early-season troubles may have owed to not having a full spring training to ramp up, but they also created some cause for concern given his 2023 season-ending funk. He hit .185/.259/.315 (60 wRC+) in August and September, missed time due to a sprained right middle finger, and finished with the lowest full-season totals of homers (17), RBI (54), and WAR (3.0) of his career — all of which may have contributed to cooling his market.

As The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly detailed on May 13, Statcast’s bat tracking data — which shows Chapman with the fifth-fastest average swing of any player — arrived just in time to offer reassurance that he needed only to continue making minor tweaks instead of overhauling his mechanics or cheating on the fastball. From Baggarly:

“That gives me the confidence to trust that I’m dealing with minor adjustments,” Chapman said on Friday. “I don’t have to go back to the lab. I don’t think, ‘Oh God, am I aging?’ I know I’m still running fast, I’m still swinging fast, I still hit the ball hard. I feel good physically. Everything is there. It’s just sometimes there’s some fine-tuning you have to do. They told me that the other day: ‘Your bat speed is the same it’s always been. You’re elite. You’re just working through some things to get back on top of the baseball.’”

Chapman has hit .254/.351/.463 (129 wRC+) with 14 homers since the start of May, and .247/.333/.446 (118 wRC+) with a team-high 22 homers overall. His slash stats are right in line with his career marks and closer to his Statcast expected numbers than last year’s were:

Meanwhile, Chapman’s defense at the hot corner has been good-to-great based on the various metrics; his 13 DRS leads all third basemen, while his 5 FRV is tied for second, and his 3.1 UZR third. Per our version of WAR, he’s fifth in the NL at 4.5 — his highest mark since 2019 — while per that of Baseball Reference, he’s third at 6.0, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor. Either way, that’s a player who figures to receive at least some mentions on MVP ballots.

For as good as Chapman has been, the Giants — who additionally added Snell and Jorge Soler after camps opened, boosting their preseason Playoff Odds to 43.4%, the sixth-highest in the NL — have gone just 69-72. As I noted earlier this week, they were just 29-29 at the end of May, and didn’t spend a day in June or July at or above .500. They dealt Soler and Alex Cobb ahead of the trade deadline but held onto Snell despite heavy interest, and an 8-2 run pushed them to a season-high three games above .500 (61-58) as of August 10, but they promptly fizzled, losing 14 of their next 21 games.

Snell, who has pitched to a 1.42 ERA since the start of July after posting a 9.51 ERA and landing on the injured list twice prior, is likely to opt out of his two-year, $62 million contract. As Jon Becker pointed out, assuming that Snell does opt out, the Giants have just under $136 million committed to next year’s luxury tax payroll, leaving them $104 million below the first tax threshold after exceeding it this season. If they don’t re-sign Snell, they could pursue another frontline starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, which is probably a necessity for them to remain competitive within an NL West that may send three teams to the postseason this year. While the Giants view Chapman as a cornerstone both for their lineup and their clubhouse, they also need an impact bat as well as some additional upgrades, particularly given that the right side of their infield has combined for just 1.1 WAR.

As for Chapman’s contract, while Dan Szymborski expressed his own reservations about its back half — his ages 35 through 37 seasons — ZiPS is rather optimistic about the deal. Chapman’s never going to win a batting title, but his power, speed (he’s in the 86th percentile for sprint speed and has swiped a career-high 13 bags this year), and athleticism contribute to a projection for 16 WAR over the life of the deal:

Looking back to the ZiPS table Dan provided in March, Chapman’s strong season has boosted his 2025 projection upwards from 3.2 WAR, and his ’26 projection upwards from 2.6 WAR. His defense at third base projects to be strong enough to offset his gradually declining bat to the point that he should remain an above-average player; even in the sixth year, he projects to be worth 2.2 WAR per 650 PA. ZiPS estimates a $141 million contract for those six seasons, so the actual contract represents neither a significant overpay for forgoing free agency nor a hometown discount.

Boras took a lot of heat for the way last winter played out for his top-tier free agents; recently, Montgomery claimed that he “butchered” his free agency. In the case of Chapman, however, the process — while no doubt painful at times — paid off handsomely. The third baseman has played his way into the big money he sought, and will earn it while playing in a place where he’s most comfortable. The Giants obviously have work to do to return to the playoffs, but having Chapman in place helps them towards that goal.