Fading Since the Trade Deadline: The Teams Whose Odds Have Fallen the Furthest

The Cardinals survived Willson Contreras‘ first extended absence due to injury, going 24-16 while their catcher/designated hitter was sidelined for six weeks due to a fractured left forearm. Despite his loss, the ineffectiveness of cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and a host of other issues, they were still in contention for a playoff spot when the July 30 trade deadline approached — not in great shape, but with a roster worth augmenting for the stretch run. But by the time Contreras suffered a fractured middle finger on his right hand as a result of an errant Pablo López pitch on August 24, it was clear that this wouldn’t be the Cardinals’ year. They had already shaken up their roster with a couple of notable demotions, and by the end of the month, they let deadline acquisition Tommy Pham depart via waivers.

The Cardinals aren’t the only team whose playoff hopes withered some time between the trade deadline and Labor Day, just the one that made the most noise on the transaction wire. Based on the changes in our Playoff Odds, here are the teams that suffered the steepest declines from the close of play on July 29 (i.e., the day before the deadline) through Monday:

As you can see from the table, not all of these situations are alike. The Mariners and Mets had roughly a coin-flip chance of making the playoffs as of July 29, and the Red Sox’s odds weren’t much lower. The other teams were long shots to begin with; they hadn’t thrown in the towel yet, but things haven’t gone their way since, and by now their demises have simplified the playoff picture.

What follows here is a closer look at each of those situations, starting from the bottom of the table.

Mets

The lone team here with a winning record since the trade deadline (18-14) — and thus more than a faint chance of making the playoffs — is one that figured to spend this season retooling following last summer’s sell-off. With Kodai Senga shelved due to a shoulder strain, and Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil among their regulars off to slow starts, the Mets were 11 games below .500 as of June 2 (24-35). But between the return of Francisco Alvarez from a left thumb sprain, the addition and surprising breakout of infielder/budding pop star Jose Iglesias, the emergence of Mark Vientos as an offensive force, and the MVP-caliber play of Lindor, the Mets climbed off the mat. They went 32-15 from June 3 through July 29, and at the trade deadline they addressed their lineup, rotation, and bullpen by adding Jesse Winker, Paul Blackburn, Ryne Stanek, and Huascar Brazobán.

Alas — with the Mets, there’s usually an alas, isn’t there? — they lost eight of their first 13 after the deadline, a stretch that included their scoring just one run during a three-game sweep by the Mariners in Seattle. They have refused to go quietly, however, even with the Padres and Diamondbacks rocketing past them in the Wild Card standings. Walk-off homers by Alvarez and Winker against the Orioles on August 19 and 21 pulled the Mets to within a game and a half of the third Wild Card spot, and they’ve gone 8-3 since via a road trip through San Diego, Arizona, and the South Side of Chicago, followed by Monday’s return home against the Red Sox. They’re now just half a game behind the Braves for the third Wild Card spot, with their highest Playoff Odds since August 8. This race ain’t over.

Pirates

Despite their current record, this has easily been the Pirates’ most interesting season since 2018, when they finished 82-79, and perhaps their most interesting since their ’13–15 run of three straight Wild Card teams. That’s thanks in large part to a revamped rotation featuring rookies Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, as well as the return of Oneil Cruz after a season lost to a fractured ankle. The Pirates bolted from the gate, winning nine of their first 11 games, but they were nonetheless just 17-22 when Skenes, last year’s no. 1 draft pick, debuted on May 11. He quickly took his place among the majors’ most dominant pitchers, throwing six hitless innings with 11 strikeouts in his second start on May 17, and has delivered a 2.23 ERA and 2.72 FIP with a 32.3% strikeout rate, second among qualified starters since his arrival.

The Pirates won nine of Skenes’ first 12 starts, and by July 22 were just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot, with 25.2% odds, their highest since April. They were busy ahead of the deadline, acquiring infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, and a couple of relievers while dealing away Martín Pérez.

Very little has gone right since. The team lost 10 in a row from August 4–14 against the Diamondbacks (one game), Padres (six games) and Dodgers (three games), and went 8-19 in August. Neither Kiner-Falefa (62 wRC+) nor De La Cruz (33 wRC+) has hit a lick since their respective trades, though they’ve had plenty of company, with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Connor Joe, Bryan Reynolds, and Michael A. Taylor all playing at replacement level or worse. Meanwhile, the pitching staff has been lit for a 5.31 ERA and 4.64 FIP since the deadline, with shaky former All-Star David Bednar blowing three saves, allowing 14 runs in 10.2 innings, and ultimately losing his job as closer. The most interesting thing about the Pirates lately is the decision to move Cruz — who’s been one of the team’s most effective hitters (.271/.327/.466, 114 wRC+) — from shortstop to center field, a decision that nonetheless signaled it was time to play out the string.

Giants

The February and March additions of Jorge Soler, Blake Snell, and Matt Chapman boosted the Giants’ odds to 43.4%, the sixth-highest in the NL. Perhaps because they didn’t have normal springs to prepare, however, all three started slowly, and the rest of the team plodded on as well. The Giants were just 29-29 at the end of May, and 41-44 at the end of June, with Snell carrying a 9.51 ERA into July while landing on the injured list twice. The team actually didn’t spend a day in July above .500, and they dealt Soler and Alex Cobb away but held onto Snell despite heavy interest; they also added Bay Area favorite Mark Canha from the Tigers.

Snell rewarded the Giants’ faith by throwing a no-hitter against the Reds on August 2, part of an 8-2 run that propelled the Giants to a season-high three games above .500 (61-58) as of August 10. The problem by then was that the Padres and Diamondbacks had surged to the top of the Wild Card standings — and even put a scare into the NL West-leading Dodgers — leaving the Giants in the dust:

After that, the Giants lost four in a row, and they’ve continued to slide to the point that they’re back below .500 again thanks in large part to an offense that’s hit just .220/.280/.376 since the deadline, with an 84 wRC+, tied with the Rockies for the NL’s worst in that span. Should have stuck with the Soler power, amirite?

Cardinals

Despite their rocky start and the loss of their best hitter, the Cardinals weathered Contreras’ absence. While they were hardly a powerhouse — given the struggles of Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and their center fielders, not to mention their overhauled-but-still-mediocre pitching — as of July 8, they were 48-42, 4.5 games out of first place, with Playoff Odds of 34.3%. They stumbled along through the rest of July, even losing series to the Pirates and Nationals, and merely splitting with the Cubs.

Nonetheless, the Cardinals were active at the deadline, trading for Pham and Erick Fedde, albeit at the cost of the versatile Tommy Edman, who had yet to play for them in 2024 but who had looked as though he could help shore up the production at second base and/or in center field. Things quickly fell apart, as they lost 12 of their first 17 games in August while allowing nearly five runs per game. On August 21, they optioned the disappointing Gorman and Jordan Walker — two of their top position playing prospects of recent years — to Triple-A Memphis. Gorman was hitting just .203/.271/.400 (86 wRC+) with a 37.6% strikeout rate and subpar defense at second, while Walker, who had been up for just a couple weeks after spending four months at Memphis ironing out his mechanics and approach, had hit .145/.228/.232 (32 wRC+) in 79 PA to that point.

Contreras’ broken finger was just the coup de grâce. While the Cardinals have gone 5-4 since, they DFA’d Pham, who was claimed by the Royals, and brought back Walker in order to play him every day while enduring the usual growing pains. He had a five-hit game that included his first homer of the season in a 14-7 win at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, but at this point, it’s too little, too late.

Red Sox

After back-to-back 78-win seasons, this year’s Red Sox have made for a much more compelling team. With surprisingly strong starting pitching, and breakouts by Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Connor Wong, they weathered the major injuries of Trevor Story and Triston Casas. At the All-Star break, they were 53-43, with a 1.5-game cushion for the third Wild Card spot and still just games five out of first place in the AL East.

The rest of July didn’t go as well. The Red Sox lost seven of 10 games heading into the deadline, slipping to 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, and while they made several moves, nothing they did amounted to an impact addition — an all-too-familiar situation for John Henry’s club in recent years. They reacquired James Paxton, and added Danny Jansen and a few bullpen pieces, including Luis García and Lucas Sims, but even those moves have largely backfired. Paxton made just three starts before returning to his all-too-familiar home on the injured list. Jansen made history by playing for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox in a suspended game but has hit for just a 64 wRC+ for his new team. García and Sims made a hash of their high-leverage opportunities, combining to allow 22 runs in 20.2 innings before landing on the IL, having made significant contributions to the bullpen’s 5.59 ERA and 5.20 FIP since the deadline.

With the exception of a strong stretch from Brayan Bello, the rotation has largely regressed in that time as well, and for as great a human interest story as the latest Rich Hill comeback may be, his workload isn’t going to turn things around. While the Sox remain fourth in the AL Wild Card race, they’re now closer to last place in the AL East (3.5 games) than qualifying for the postseason (4.5 games).

Mariners

Perhaps some of the managers of the teams above will pay the price for their squads’ August fades. Mariners manager Scott Servais already has, having been fired on August 23 and replaced by Dan Wilson. The team led the AL West by as many as 10 games on June 18, when they were 44-31, but it’s been mostly downhill since, as they lost 20 of their next 29 games while the Astros caught up:

Still, Seattle was tied for the division lead at the deadline, and they made some big moves, dealing for Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner to inject some life into their moribund offense, and Yimi García to upgrade their bullpen. Arozarena (111 wRC+) and Turner (109 wRC+) have helped, but the offense has produced a 97 wRC+ on either side of the deadline with only a slight reduction in their major league-high strikeout rate (27.8% before, 26.6% after). Their scoring has actually improved, but their run prevention has eroded; they’ve gone 13-17 since the deadline despite outscoring opponents:

Within what has generally been a top-notch rotation that still owns the majors’ lowest ERA (3.53) and third-lowest FIP (3.77) — some of which owes to park effects — both George Kirby and Luis Castillo have picked the wrong time to struggle. García hasn’t done well (though Stanek, whom he replaced, has been worse with the Mets) within a bullpen that has netted -0.7 WAR since the deadline; only the Red Sox (-1.0) have been worse. Though the Mariners’ playoff hopes haven’t been completely extinguished, they’re 5.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot and six back in the division race, headed towards their 22nd miss of the postseason in 23 years. Ouch.