NL Division Series Games 1 Chat

4:54	Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone. Welcome to the NLDS game 1 chat here at ol’ FG. They’re introducing the rosters in Atlanta right now.

4:54	Eric A Longenhagen: Craig previewed the series here, if you’d like to brush up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-st-louis-cardinals-vs-a…

4:54	psylocibin: you chatting from Salt River Eric?

4:55	Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, fall league off day today

4:55

Eric A Longenhagen: Cardinals Lineup
1. Dexter Fowler (RF)
2. Tommy Edman (3B)
3. Paul Goldschmidt (1B)
4. Marcell Ozuna (LF)
5. Yadier Molina (C)
6. Paul DeJong (SS)
7. Kolten Wong (2B)
8. Harrison Bader (CF)
9. Miles Mikolas (P)

Braves Lineup
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (CF)
2. Ozzie Albies (2B)
3. Freddie Freeman (1B)
4. Josh Donaldson (3B)
5. Nick Markakis (LF)
6. Matt Joyce (RF)
7. Brian McCann (C)
8. Dansby Swanson (SS)
9. Dallas Keuchel (P)

4:55	Kiley McDaniel: KILEY IS NOW ALSO HERE

4:57	Kiley McDaniel: I can confirm it is hot in Atlanta right now

4:57	Kiley McDaniel: but don’t you dare call it Hotlanta

4:57	Alan: Tommy Edman has been a surprise this year. What should we expect from him going forward?

4:57	Hi: Either of you ever see Edman in the minors

4:58	Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, at Stanford and in the minors. I think he’s more of a true talent .320 wOBA guy, more a 1.5-2 WAR multi-positional utility type than a 3 WAR star.

4:58	Kiley McDaniel: FYI 56.5% Braves win probability on this one before first pitch

4:58	Kiley McDaniel: I believe that’s lineup and ZiPS-influenced?

4:59	Kiley McDaniel: more on those odds here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/zips-playoff-probabilities-are…

4:59	Kiley McDaniel: impt freddie freeman shower update has been covered so we’re ready to go

5:02	Kiley McDaniel: So if I have this right.. ZiPS: Braves 55.2% https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas… FG Live Odds: Braves 56.5% https://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2019-10-03 The difference is the FG Odds have Steamer combined with ZiPS

5:03	Kiley McDaniel: Everything else should be the same, with lineups considered

5:03	Bortky: Excited that baseball starts at a good time here on the east coast. And it goes all night!

5:03	Kiley McDaniel: Indeed it does, Bortky

5:03	psylocibin: how did you get those airhorns to go off in my ear when reading hotlanta Kiley

5:03	Kiley McDaniel: it’s a special ability only i possess

5:04	abgb123: Ugh! I was looking forward to this chat till kiley showed up

5:04	Kiley McDaniel: STOP, MOM

5:04	Tommy: What are your thoughts on Showalter managing the padres?

5:05	Eric A Longenhagen: pass

5:05	Eric A Longenhagen: i wouldn’t want anyone who has shown a taste for power struggles coming in after the team was criticized by Fowler like that

5:05	Kiley McDaniel: Tough for Keuchel to miss on both of those borderline pitches. That won’t be there all day

5:05	Kiley McDaniel: that level of command, I mean

5:06	Eric A Longenhagen: I got 4.06 home to first on Edman.

5:06	Kiley McDaniel: I was chatting with som industry friends yesterday and we commented on how many situations (manager, GM) seem to be in the “needs to win or may get fired” bucket next year

5:07	Kiley McDaniel: maybe scouting director/draft process as well, but those are usually just shifting people around

5:07	Kiley McDaniel: 3 grounders is so on brand for Keuchel

5:07	Joe: Was this year the start of a Votto-esque goldy decline. Talk a cardinals fan off a ledge

5:08	Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll probably be a good player for a while yet, but exit velos are down two consecutive years, he’s 32, so yeah probably starting to slide.

5:08	Matt W: What are your thoughts on Matheny managing the Mets? Because as terrible of an idea as it is, it is absolutely going to happen.

5:09	Eric A Longenhagen: A source indicated he was in attendance at Royals instructs today, so if I’m making odds on where he manages, it isn’t NY.

5:10	Brandon: What are your thoughts on teams potentially using the manager as a people manager and having all the in-game decisions made by a computer/analysts?

5:11	Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, try to find a whole person

5:13	Jack: Do pitchers with postseason experience fair better than those pitchers that have no experience?

5:14	Eric A Longenhagen: I believe there are people who are built for the playoff pressure cooker, those for whom the experience helps after they’re initially shakey, and those who will always shrink in these moments. Do I think we can tell who is who? Mostly, no.

5:14	mark: i saw kevin cash said something significant regarding this, if he’s making decisions based on feel, it means its a lack of preparation on his/front offices part

5:15	mark : what about players in general? I would suspect not

5:16	Eric A Longenhagen: The practical differences between hitters and pitchers are such that yeah, I’d tend to speculate in the same way.

5:16	Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Goldma…

5:16	Kiley McDaniel: love that the umpire is named randy marsh

5:17	Mo money, Molina: What contract do you think Keuchel gets in the offseason?

5:17	Kiley McDaniel: 3×15?

5:18	Eel Ffilc: If a manager had a British accent would that give them a longer leash on the job?

5:18	Kiley McDaniel: yes

5:18	Kiley McDaniel: maybe Joe Maddon will take this on?

5:18	J: Do you think going overseas helped the development of guys like Mikolas and Thames or would they have become this had they stayed with MLB orgs?

5:18	Kiley McDaniel: Yes, NPB pitching development specifically is different

5:19	Kiley McDaniel: different training (lots of pitches at low intensity, cardio), no wasted pitches, more general precision

5:19	Kiley McDaniel: some guys respond to that better than Triple-A

5:19	Kiley McDaniel: KBO hitting I know less about

5:19	RandyMarsh: OH I’M SORRY I THOUGHT THIS WAS AMERICA

5:20	Kiley McDaniel: this guy is already a couple brews deep

5:20

Matt W:

Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale

One name to keep your eye on for the #Mets opening is Mike Matheny, who went to Michigan, and is quite close to the Wilpons. He’s a finalist with the #Royals opening, and could be a long shot with the Mets, but those close to the Wilpons say not to count him out.

3 Oct 2019

5:20	Kiley McDaniel: hold on, scout has a ball, lemme go throw it a few times

5:20	Eric A Longenhagen: Fine, but Matheny is standing on a backfield watching Royals prospects as we speak, so which do you think is more likely?

5:21	El Mago: Everybody is biting my base stealing style… except I actually get the stolen base

5:21	Eric A Longenhagen: fueled by Millie’s jibaritos

5:22	nat: TBS has a little chyron saying “Infield Shift is On.” Should this be standard?

5:22	Eric A Longenhagen: let’s ask…

5:22	Kiley McDaniel: that may have been the wong move by kolten there

5:22	Eric A Longenhagen: Do you want to see a defensive shift/position indicator on the scorebug? Yes (44.2% \| 27 votes) No (21.3% \| 13 votes) Yes, but not just ‘Shift is On’ (34.4% \| 21 votes) Total Votes: 61

5:24	Dystopian Future: RE: Shift is on, there are so many different kinds of shifts I’d rather have a visual of the actual shift as opposed to “the shift is on”. Though I assume this refers to the standard extreme grounder-puller shift.

5:24	Eric A Longenhagen: agreed, there are enough different flavors that I just wanna see it

5:24	Joe: re goldy extension at 5/120 will the decline still give the club any surplus? seems like kelly + weaver value – goldy surplus = bad deal for the red birds. why would a team that seemingly always finds a way to extend their window do such a thing?

5:24	Kiley McDaniel: I think they thought Kelly/Weaver were soft 5’s and Goldy is a rock solid 6

5:24	Kiley McDaniel: which may not be accurate just one year later?

5:24	Kiley McDaniel: it makes sense if that’s what you thought the outcomes would be

5:25	RandyMarsh: Actually I’m at work & on a client call while on mute and in a deep need for a brew Kiley

5:25	Kiley McDaniel: i actually have some brews around, very uncharacteristic for me, and am firing up the grill in the 2nd half of the game

5:25	Kiley McDaniel: i could go full randy marsh

5:26	Eric A Longenhagen: “hot hot hot hot hot”

5:26	Frank: Are we just going to ignore the fact the Nightengale is wrong like 90% of the time?

5:27	Kiley McDaniel: oh come on lets be fair. he isn’t wrong 90% of the time. he’s a puppet for whomever he’s spoken to most recently 72% of the time.

5:27	Derek: Mikolas looks… not great. Acuna maybe shouldn’t have gotten himself thrown out

5:28	Kiley McDaniel: tend to agree that when a pitcher looks to be struggling a bit, don’t help them

5:28	Cale: What kind of route efficiency does Scout have?

5:28	Kiley McDaniel: she’s learned what her path is around the backyard and has carved out trails

5:28	Kiley McDaniel: when she gets zoomy, she just follows the path and makes abrupt turns

5:29	KitAndCanoodle: I need a groan emoji for that Wong pun, Kiley.

5:29	Kiley McDaniel: more on the way!

5:29	Curious: What’s a “scorebug”?

5:29	Kiley McDaniel: the upper left corner of the screen

5:29	Kiley McDaniel: scorebox is also accepted

5:30	Derek: Ooh a non-groundball out for Keuchel!

5:30	Kiley McDaniel: also the most elevated sinker thus far

5:31	Kiley McDaniel: slider slipped out of his hand up, another single

5:33	psylocibin: you guys know people how healthy is Acuna really

5:33	Kiley McDaniel: looks good to me

5:33	bosoxforlife: Keuchel’s downward movement shows why a pitcher doesn’t need velocity to get hitters out.

5:33	bosoxforlife: The numbers just do not mean much for a catcher. Molina, Mauer and Posey are 1st ballot HOFers and Molina just showed why again.

5:33	From Mom’s Basement: best time to be currently unemployed… drink ’em if you got ’em

5:34	Kiley McDaniel: just to be clear, this chat has at least one:

5:34	Kiley McDaniel: 1. “velo doesn’t matter if you have command” guy

5:34	Kiley McDaniel: 2. “Molina is a 1st ballot HOF” guy

5:34	Kiley McDaniel: 3. “drinking!” guy

5:34	Kiley McDaniel: I support one of these and won’t say which

5:35	PandaKeyboardSmash.gif: Speaking of being at work. I’ve been working for weeks to catch up because of an influx of work we have due to a project we have going on. I finally do and wouldn’t you know it just in time to catch the early NLDS game. Sit at my desk log in….three tickets hit my queue

5:35	Eric A Longenhagen: hang in there, the hamster wheel is real

5:36	Kiley McDaniel: fun fact: chipper drives a truck with camo panels and a “big buck hunter” sign on it

5:37	Kiley McDaniel: another pitch up, another hit

5:37	Kiley McDaniel: these players are good, not a lot of mistake pitches sneaking by

5:37	RandyMarsh: What do you think the % of major leaguers that smoke weed?

5:37	Kiley McDaniel: another fun story

5:37	Kiley McDaniel: one of the teams i worked for

5:37	Kiley McDaniel: I’m watching the GCL team

5:37	Kiley McDaniel: notable MLB player you guys all know is there on rehab

5:38	Kiley McDaniel: coaches/PD asks him to give the kids a talk

5:38	Kiley McDaniel: whole clubhouse goes silent as he’s about to talk

5:38	Kiley McDaniel: “Guys, get to the big leagues because they don’t test for weed there” /walks out of the clubhouse to cheers

5:38	TB: Does STL have the horses to go 5-6 innings of bullpen?

5:38	Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, probably involves burning Hudson, though.

5:38	NathanLazarus: I’d like a diagram of where all the fielders are, with little yellow dots representing the fielders, if there’s a shift on, thank you.

5:38	Eric A Longenhagen: agreed

5:39	MJA: Would it be illegal for a player to wear airpods out on the field?

5:39	Kiley McDaniel: definitely

5:39	Kiley McDaniel: no way to know if he’s not getting told the pitch via a phone call

5:39	Kiley McDaniel: apple watch was how BOS was stealing signs before

5:40	Dystopian Future: So what do you think are the 80 tools that we have out on the field today?

5:40	Kiley McDaniel: not sure if there is an 80. Eric?

5:40	Kiley McDaniel: maybe Yadi’s HOF tool

5:41	Frank: Billy Ham speed

5:41	Kiley McDaniel: oh yes, for sure

5:41	Mo money, Molina: Bader speed?

5:41	Kiley McDaniel: Bader glove maybe?

5:41	Kiley McDaniel: Could argue Inciarte glove if he was healthy

5:43	Eric A Longenhagen: Bader is a 7 runner

5:43	Eric A Longenhagen: Edman, too

5:44	J: Do you like Hudson as a starter long term or more of a bulk inning RP?

5:44	Eric A Longenhagen: 110-120 inning starter

5:45	RandyMarsh: Btw seeing all these top bullpen arms in recent years struggle just shows how insane Mariano Rivera was (Jansen, Miller, Diaz, Treinen & Hader who although still elite, wasn’t as good as 2018)

5:45	Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, reliever consistency is rarer than dominance

5:45	Eric A Longenhagen: It’s why I think TB’s RP acquisitions at the deadline are short-sighted, even if they have 5+ years of control over Anderson and Fairbanks.

5:46	mark : anyone else elevates sinkers similiar to keuchel

5:46	Eric A Longenhagen: Manaea was doing it with success until…uh…last night

5:49	Eric A Longenhagen: Keuchel back foot breaking ball 1-2, changeup away 2-2. Keep that in your back pocket for later, hitter-watchers.

5:50	Jerome: Quintana and Hendricks were elevating their sinkers more intentionally this season as well

5:50	The West Is Wild: Regarding sinkers up: now Dinelson Lamet

5:50	Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, the second one here is an example:

5:51	Eric A Longenhagen: Uh, wow, Miles Mikolas ground rule double

5:51	Aceman: Flowers framing

5:51	Kiley McDaniel: not a tool per se, but he’s an 80 at that. if he’d ever talk about it publicly you’d see how deeply he thinks about it

5:52	Eel Ffilc: Bryan McCann unwritten rules knowing

5:52	Kiley McDaniel: that’s an 80 for sure

5:52	Slothrop: no clue why most scorebugs don’t have batter information, specifically lineup order. Fox Sports is hands down the best for this reason, also prefer the clean lines and under-designed style of it

5:52	Kiley McDaniel: ESPN last night had a good one with hitter and pitcher

5:52	Morbo: if Bader and Edman are 7 runner who’s an 8 runner then?

5:52	Eric A Longenhagen: Tim Locastro

5:53	Eric A Longenhagen: Buxton

5:53	Kiley McDaniel: Hamilton

5:53	mark : whats the thinking behind using sinkers up in the zone?

5:53	Kiley McDaniel: other than eye level change every now and then, there isn’t one

5:54	5 Run Homer: You could say McCann is a 20 runner, but I choose to think of him as an 80 plodder

5:54	5 Run Homer: Ozzie and Acuña have an 80 friendship

5:54	Eric A Longenhagen: I’d rather face RH Edman than RH Fowler but you have little chance of doubling him up

5:54	5 Run Homer: God I love watching Donaldson defend

5:54	Kiley McDaniel: that was pretty

5:55	Eric A Longenhagen: got 4.20 on Edman there

5:56	Yo-Yo: That’s why you don’t hit your xwOBA .320 hitter second, eh?

5:56	Eric A Longenhagen: def not when his RH swing is much worse

5:57	slappybag: Does Donaldson have options in his contract?

5:57	Kiley McDaniel: nope, clean 1 year deal so he can hit the market after a better platform, which has happened

5:57	Morbo: Hamilton as 8 spring speed over Edman and Bader. Strongly disagree, I’ll give you the other two

5:57	Eric A Longenhagen: sprint speed is a lousy way of evaluating speed.

5:58	Kiley McDaniel: Ozzie is so fun

5:58	Eric A Longenhagen: you get the fastest one second window of them running, it’s peak speed, totally ignores acceleration

5:59	Eric A Longenhagen: and consistency

5:59	Frank: Donaldson contract?

5:59	Kiley McDaniel: 3+1 for 55-60? a couple years ago, Edwin Encarnacion got 3 for 60 at the same age/platform year, but was DH and was more healthy. market seems to have gone down since then in general

6:00	J: Is it surprising that Ron Washington hasn’t been more connected to the Padres job? Seems like a natural fit given the Preller connection plus his work with young infielders

6:01	Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe eventually, but he’s still involved in the postseason and given Preller’s history it’s probably best for optics to wait to talk to him if you’re interested

6:01	Morbo: Ok then Hp to 1b then maybe but that means Bellinger is an 8

6:01	Eric A Longenhagen: correct

6:02	Eric A Longenhagen: well, no, left-handed 4.0 is a 70

6:02	Kiley McDaniel: yeah, gotta put handedness on that chart

6:04	Eric A Longenhagen: Thru 3, anyone think game state merits any player movement at this point? I say no.

6:06	Eric A Longenhagen: If St. Louis gets a bunch of hits t4 and Mikolas comes up with runners on… Mikolas hits (25.7% \| 9 votes) Pinch hit, bring in lefty to face Markakis/Joyce/McCann (74.2% \| 26 votes) Total Votes: 35

6:07	psylocibin: Yadi to the sun maybe

6:07	Eric A Longenhagen: well if anyone’s gonna help Yadi see heavenly bodies it’s you

6:08	Joe: What % of time does a lead off dub score?

6:08	Eric A Longenhagen: a little over 60%

6:08	Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

6:09	Morbo: i dont buy more than say .05 max advantage for a lefty on hp to 1b time the advantage of being a step closer to facing the direction you need to run

6:09	Eric A Longenhagen: i did an independent study at Baseball Info Solution that showed the gap is actually .2 seconds. Righties take forever to get out of the box most of the time because of how they rotate toward third with their hips, then have to change direction to 1B.

6:10	Eric A Longenhagen: Some (RIckie Weeks) have weird natural righty jailbreaks and don’t do this, but it’s rare

6:10	Marcell Ozuna: Do you QO me this offseason?

6:10	Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but I hope someone else bites.

6:12	Kiley McDaniel: with a lead in a playoff game, the leash on a guy like Keuchel is shorter. smart to get things going before there’s a loss in stuff/TTO penalty

6:13	Go Barves!: Wow, Eric, I played through college and never realized that as a RHH it was the hip turn that had such a big impact on getting down the line. Makes total sense

6:13	Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, you can see the RHHs all get out of the gate slower here: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/running_splits?type=percent&bats=&year=…

6:13	J: What contract does Ozuna get in FA? 3/36?

6:13	Kiley McDaniel: I’d say 3/45-50

6:14	Kiley McDaniel: but if that market collapses a bit, you can see why QO is attractive

6:16	Kiley McDaniel: he’s got that hidden upside of recently playing a decent CF/good COF, and a launch angle change candidate

6:16	Eric A Longenhagen: Ozuna’s 2018 defense numbers way down due to shoulder injury. bader was coming over to take flyballs Ozuna would’ve ordinarily taken but they didn’t want him throwing.

6:17	bosoxforlife: Do you see any way the Red Sox can get under the cap if Mookie is on the team?

6:17	Eric A Longenhagen: it’s not a cap, it’s just a tax

6:17	Eric A Longenhagen: they can pay him if they want

6:17	Mo money, Molina: Spots for Donaldson in FA?

6:17	Eric A Longenhagen: Philly? Maybe WAS if Rendon walks?

6:18	Kiley McDaniel: shorter term due to age will get the progressive teams perking up

6:18	Kiley McDaniel: possible that if he can’t get 3/60, he goes 1 or 2 years again? I guess ATL is leading candidate then?

6:21	Dystopian Future: Well wouldn’t STL be a dark horse candidate with how much Carpenter has struggled this year? Or do they have someone else there that I’m totally forgetting about, if so ignore this

6:21	Eric A Longenhagen: if I had to pick an internal candidate in the org I guess it’s Ramon Urias? But I’d take the field, for sure.

6:26	Dystopian Future: And if it’s just one year philly might be an option, if they don’t want to bring up Bohm yet. Franco just doesn’t seem like the answer there.

6:26	Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Bohm has also seen time at other spots, perhaps an indication Philly thinks it’s not great at 3B

6:27	J: Do teams have full time scouts in Curaçao or do they just fly guys out for events/workouts?

6:27	Eric A Longenhagen: Some of both

6:29	adults waving floppy foam axes: Speaking of Japan with Mikolas – are there any NPB or KBO players likely to be posted this year or next?

6:29	Eric A Longenhagen: perhaps Sung-Bum Na?

6:30	Horace Fury: Is the Red Sox next GM/Pres currently involved in post-season play?

6:30	Kiley McDaniel: internal looking more likely now

6:30	Kiley McDaniel: I think CHC/ARI crews were the first spots they looked and got no’s across the board from what i heard

6:31	Kiley McDaniel: and no elite guys want that job

6:31	Kiley McDaniel: and they want elite performance

6:31	Kiley McDaniel: internal is default

6:31	Millville Meteor: Never forget the time Chipper rode through a snowstorm on his ATV to rescue Freddie stuck in traffic in his car

6:31	Kiley McDaniel: immortalized in a bobblehead!

6:32	Dystopian Future: Feels like forever ago that Mikolas looked shaky in the first two innings. This is a pretty good pitcher’s duel we have here (for now, at least).

6:34	cO.COa: Why don’t elite guys want the Sox?

6:35

Re:KBO: Travesty as a Korean fan that Oh Seung Hwan and Lee Dae Ho couldn’t come over when they were younger b/c I think both could’ve had a decent MLB career.

And sad that Sun Dong Yeol couldn’t come to theUS partly b/c of his military service b/c he put up 15 WAR seasons in the KBO while pitching hung over b/c he was so good over the competition inclduing multiple seasons where he hit 160+ IP with 1.20-1.60 ERA and 1.26-1.62 FIP. His career line in the KBO – 1.20 ERA, 1.37 FIP in 1647 IP

6:35	Re:KBO: Sun Dong Yeol also finished his 1986 season with a 0.99 ERA and 1.16 FIp in 262.2 IP, with 39 appearances inclduing 22 starts with 19 CG and 8 CGSO at age 23. KBO was much weaker then, but someone like that definitely deserved a chance at the MLB

6:36	Eric A Longenhagen: rbi groundout for Dexter Fowler, we’re knotted at 1

6:36

Kiley McDaniel: If you’re David Stearns (for example), you have to go start over making your processes/people the way you like it, can’t bring them all with you, get a little more money, maybe even an extra year or two/higher title

BUT

expectations are sky high, so you need results immediately, media is a nightmare, you still have to answer to 2-3 involved people that clearly are not afraid to fire a pretty successful GM, most of the remaining office won’t like you and the odds are you’re moving twice in under 5 years

OR

just stay where you are and keep being elite, with tons of rope in terms of security and scrutiny and surrounding cast, etc.

6:37	Kiley McDaniel: and whatever contract BOS would give you, you could probably get the exact same one in a year or two anyway. and after that, you could go the Friedman route and the mercenary choice is double what BOS would pay now

6:38	Brian Snitker: When should I start getting guys in the bullpen

6:38	Eric A Longenhagen: you have your answer, it seems

6:39	Eric A Longenhagen: Darren O’Day is entering

6:39	Lee van Beef: Ownership is fickle and demanding, fans are pricks with completely unreasonable expectations. (I say this as a lifelong Red Sox fan myself)

6:39	Kiley McDaniel: if they can get baseball Saban, he can handle all that stuff, but I don’t think they can get that guy to walk in the door (post-LSU Saban)

6:39	Eric A Longenhagen: Goldy and Ozuna have only ever seen O’Day once, each.

6:40	Kiley McDaniel: O’Day, and I can’t stress this enough, throws the ball real weird

6:40	Connor: Just me, or a bit too early to call the bullpen in? Doesn’t seem like Keuchel is getting hit very hard.

6:40	Kiley McDaniel: Better to do it too early than too late with a pitch-to-contact, below average velocity type

6:41	Red Sox: Chaim Bloom please come to us!

6:41	Red Sox fan: Chaim bloom to the Red Sox pleaaaaaase

6:41	Kiley McDaniel: If he went, TB wouldn’t let him bring anyone with him.

6:42	Kiley McDaniel: And may even be obstructionist and promote him and Neander so they “can’t” interview him unless it’s President of BB ops title

6:43	Eric A Longenhagen: How are you watching the game? Stream on TBS site/app (21.8% \| 12 votes) On cable (40.0% \| 22 votes) Other (38.1% \| 21 votes) Total Votes: 55

6:43

Dystopian Future: A bit of a non-sequitur here – Tommy Pham was atrocious this year in the outfield per OAA, but he’s been especially bad on balls to his left and on balls in. I don’t know about the balls in, but is having an elite defensive CF (Kiermaier) hurting his range on balls to his left by taking all the LCF balls? Or is this something adjusted for?

6:45	Eric A Longenhagen: it’s an interesting question. I’m not sure. Benintendi’s would seem to support your theory

6:45	Mo money, Molina: Ozzie Albeis is the best person who has ever been mic’d during a game.

6:45	Kiley McDaniel: Lindor has also been very good at this

6:46	Thom: mlb dot tv in canada includes playoffs whoop whoop

6:46	Eric A Longenhagen: Those of you ‘Other’ responders, how are you watching?

6:47	psylocibin: Eric you doing either afternoon fall league game tomorrow?

6:47	Kiley McDaniel: (pirated, I bet)

6:47	Eric A Longenhagen: gotta check the probables. Kiley and I are writing a book (surprise) and are working on a deadline right now, so that’s taking priority over AFL for the next little bit

6:47	Daniel: At bat, in Canada

6:47	Justin: listening on MLB at bat (at work on the west coast)

6:47	mm: argh matey

6:48	Kiley McDaniel: Braves Win Expectancy at 53.8%, a couple percentage points lower than at first pitch (56.5%)

6:50	kumquatch: Hey, Nick Gonzales or Casey Martin? I hate Casey’s swing. Tell me how they differ please!

6:50	Eric A Longenhagen: Nick def the safer bat-to-ball bet, Martin the better athlete/runner/defender

6:51	Guest: ack ooon Yaaaa!!!!!!!!!!

6:51	Kiley McDaniel: talked to a scout yesterday that said Gonzales will be moved up in part due to Nico Hoerner’s early success

6:51	psylocibin: Nice. That’s awesome. I for one can’t wait to read “Scout Visits the Dispensary”

6:51	Guest: You talked to Scout yesterday?

6:52	5 Run Homer: At Bat in Canada babeyyyyyy

6:52	Eric A Longenhagen: lotta Canadians in here

6:53	Lee van Beef: Why is “never make the first or third out at third” the conventional wisdom? Why is it fine to make the second out at third? That’s never made sense to me. Isn’t “don’t fuck up and do a TOOTBLAN” the better guideline?

6:53	Eric A Longenhagen: being aggressive/risky to get to 2B makes more sense. You’re scoring on a base hit from 2B with 2 outs because you’re running on contact. It makes the risk of moving to third not worth it

6:54	Luke: Down here in Australia all games are broadcast on ESPN irrespective of their US network, it’s very strange

6:54	Go Barves!: We all want to be Canadians these days…

6:54	Eric A Longenhagen: lol

6:54	cO.COa: How many people at this chat rn?

6:54	Eric A Longenhagen: approx 160

6:56	kumquatch: which player on the ATL playoff roster has exceeded their prospect profile?

6:57	Eric A Longenhagen: i guess Keuchel. Everyone else was pretty well-evaluated

6:57	Kiley McDaniel: Donaldson broke out in MLB

6:57	Kiley McDaniel: Freeman I feel like was never top 100…?

6:59	Eric A Longenhagen: Callis had him 45th overall when he was still at BA, #2 in org behind Heyward

6:58	Guest: I am watching from outerspace on a rocket to mars

6:58	Kiley McDaniel: sounds like you’ll see jared leto once you’re about to arrive

6:58	kumquatch: Hassel III or PCA? Many similar attributes, yes?

6:58	Kiley McDaniel: Hassell. More projection/power potential

6:59	Eric A Longenhagen: agreed

6:59	Kiley McDaniel: that’s a consensus opinion as well. We have them pretty close, but some have PCA outside the top 15

7:00	Guest: Jared Leto is onboard with rest of 30 sec to Mars

7:00	Kiley McDaniel: all living actors who have played the joker can be on that rocket for all i care

7:00	Kiley McDaniel: (kinda interested in what joaquin does with this one)

7:00	Jeff: How badass is Ed Howard going to be looking come next June for the draft? 6’3″ 200 with power, approach, hit, and defense, or less? SS or 3B?

7:01	Kiley McDaniel: SS, maybe best HS SS defensively in the draft, athlete

7:01	Baseball savant: Favorite stat/section on the site?

7:01	Eric A Longenhagen: on savant? Plinko

7:01	Lee van Beef: Even Nicholson???

7:01	Kiley McDaniel: I mean if he didn’t go to Lakers games, when would you even see him?

7:02	Eric A Longenhagen: Mark Hamill?

7:03	Mo money, Molina: and Brad Pitt is there trying to find his dad

7:03	Kiley McDaniel: and McConaghey

7:03	Kiley McDaniel: never saw the animated ones, but I hear they’re good?

7:03	Kiley McDaniel: kinda surprised there wasn’t a joker in the Bruckheimer ones

7:04	Guest: Kiley, discuss this new podcast

7:04	Kiley McDaniel: coming after the playoffs

7:04	Kiley McDaniel: i guess that’s all i can say for now?

7:05	Jordan: Who’s chatting the second game?

7:05	Eric A Longenhagen: Ben and Craig

7:06

Kiley McDaniel: okay i’m gonna start prepping for grill stuff, let’s see what should be done first? I’m grilling cheeseburgers, mojo chicken thighs, stuffed poblano peppers, brussels and okra. may also put together a peach burrata? Not sure I want to cook it all now, got a big weekend of writing and being a hermit planned

7:06	Kiley McDaniel: i’ll still be around, just in spurts

7:06	Lee van Beef: Batman: the Animated Series is better than any of the current superhero movies, no exaggeration.

7:06	Kiley McDaniel: maybe i’ve missed the boat here. the killing joke was on delta flights for awhile, may still be. the synopsis sounded intense

7:07	Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve not seen this but can tell you not to watch it on a plane due to the subject matter of the source material

7:06

Eric A Longenhagen: Reltaed book excerpt:
20: Batman & Robin
30: Batman vs Superman, Batman Forever
40: Batman Begins, Batman: Gotham Knight
45: Dark Knight Rises, Batman: The Movie (1966)
50: Batman Returns, Mask of the Phantasm, The Dark Knight Returns pt 2
55: Batman (1989), Batman Beyond: Return of the Joker
60: Batman: Year One, Batman: Under the Red Hood
70: The Dark Knight
80: The Dark Knight Returns part 1

7:07	Dystopian Future: Not a single Cardinal batter has struck out so far

7:07	Kiley McDaniel: #devilmagic

7:08	Go Barves!: Thoughts on what the Braves might be looking to do this offseason?

7:08	Kiley McDaniel: lots of options with the limited roster spots that are open. a couple pen/rotation spots, with young arms floating between, donaldson decision, then priming the OF for Pache/Waters coming

7:09	Kiley McDaniel: find spots to work in camargo/riley as well

7:09	Guest: thats b/cs bruckheimer was the joke….i mean joker i guess

7:09	Kiley McDaniel: didn’t think this was going to be the batman hot take hour. but yes even kid kiley thought those were of questionable quality

7:09	Jeff: KD/EL: What made you guys put Aramis Ademan in your postseason top 100? Chances he remains a top 100 throughout the offseason? I’m loving his chances to hit the ground running in AA next year, sucks he didn’t win the High A awards

7:09	Eric A Longenhagen: Just think he’s a perfectly fine SS with a well-rounded offensive profile, stats have been meh but he’s super young for the level. We’ve had a 50 on him since before Kiley came back (I think), don’t think he’s way different than Andres Gimenez/Luis Garcia types.

7:10

Jeff: KD/EL: I keep hearing that DSL numbers don’t matter, and I agree that scouting reports are massive here, but is that *really really* true? If I see a 17 year old in that league nailing that league, specifically 17 because it’s the DSL with few exceptions (Jordan Alvarez immediately comes to mind, ppwrk)

7:11	Kiley McDaniel: Eh, usually 17 years old, particularly at a position that matters means something

7:11	Kiley McDaniel: if you show me maxed-out 1B that’s 17 and mashed, i need to know more and it’s still 40 FV max

7:12	Kiley McDaniel: Bayron Lora is a power-over-hit LF and he’s a 40+ and that’s about as high as that general type can go at that stage

7:12	psylocibin: If it’s still Batman talk in here Troy Baker does a surprisingly good impression of Hamil’s Joker

7:12	Kiley McDaniel: i googled “who has played the joker” and quickly realized i have put a lot of voice actors on a rocket to mars

7:13	Eric A Longenhagen: Robocop and Bender both gone

7:13	Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an easy out for Goldy if he’s not holding the runner on, maybe even if he flips his hips and works back on the ball rather than leap

7:14

Jeff: Yohendrick Pinango: Best LHH prospect in the DSL this year or is there a bigger bonus guy to know? He and Luis Matos were the most consistently awesome hitters in the league it seems, Matos’ bigger teammate too I forget his name. BTW I ONLY KNOW THIS because of FanGraphs’ new filters for the MiL leaderboards – those are amazing and massive and thank you

7:14	Eric A Longenhagen: I have very little on Pinango

7:14	kumquatch: Eric, who’s impressed you in the AFL?

7:16	Eric A Longenhagen: More than I anticipated? Alex Lange, Raymond Kerr

7:18	Go Barves!: Cervelli v. Gallegos in game one of the NLDS, just like everyone drew it up in the preseason

7:19	bosoxforlife: Gallegos is throwing some nice pitches, but that was an awful call.

7:19	Derek: that’s not even that close to a swing, is it?

7:20	Eric A Longenhagen: not a swing, imo

7:21	Dystopian Future: PSA: Gallegos isn’t a big name but he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. wOBA againstof .233 was the seventh best in baseball this year (xwOBA against of .252 was also top-20 and equal to Roberto Osuna).

7:21	Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, one of those guys who was squeezed out of a crowded Yankee 40-man situation

7:23	Dystopian Future: Kolten Wong has had a no good very bad day.

7:23	Derek: Some pretty disastrous defense for the Cards so far

7:23	Lee van Beef: Second huge, potentially game deciding error of the postseason already.

7:24	Kiley McDaniel: i wonder if statcast one day is able to define how bad a hop is based on batted ball spin/axis

7:24	Kiley McDaniel: that was obviously top-spun and tricky, but i wonder how tricky

7:24	bosoxforlife: Tough hop. Edman didn’t have much of a chance.

7:25	Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was playable

7:25	Eric A Longenhagen: Edman took a passive line

7:25	Eric A Longenhagen: that ball needs to be fielded closer to when it hops

7:25	Dystopian Future: And TBS defaults back to talking about fielding percentage when talking about defense. Disappointing but not surprising.

7:26	Kiley McDaniel: yeah these guys strike me as just fine but not standout good in any real way

7:27

Eric A Longenhagen: Nats/Dodgers lineups if you haven’t yet seen them

1. Trea Turner (SS)
2. Adam Eaton (RF)
3. Anthony Rendon (3B)
4. Juan Soto (LF)
5. Howie Kendrick (1B)
6. Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)
7. Victor Robles (CF)
8. Yan Gomes (C)
9. Patrick Corbin (P)

1. A.J. Pollock (LF)
2. David Freese (1B)
3. Justin Turner (3B)
4. Cody Bellinger (CF)
5. Chris Taylor (RF)
6. Max Muncy (2B)
7. Corey Seager (SS)
8. Will Smith (C)
9. Walker Buehler (P)

7:29	Eric A Longenhagen: Changes for Atlanta: Duvall in for Joyce in LF, Markakis moves to RF, Cervelli in at C, Fried in to pitch.

7:31	joe: braves down to 2 guys on their bench

7:32	Eric A Longenhagen: Flowers and Hamilton.

7:34

Jeff: Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, Dylan Cease, Walker Buehler, AJ Puk, Jesus Luzardo, hopefully Honeywell, Alex Reyes, hopefully Taillon…I feel like I’m forgetting someone big too…All guys with TJ surgeries before hitting the MLs. Seems like we’re in a golden age for this kind of pitcher and as a SP? They’ve existed – Mo Rivera, Johan Santana, David Wells, and Burnett are guys I remember, but seems like a lot more than usual high profile amateurs and prospects

7:34	Eric A Longenhagen: all the TJs: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

7:35	Eric A Longenhagen: (among prospects, anyway {for now})

7:36	Dystopian Future: I’m wondering why they’re keeping Markakis in there instead of using Hamilton as a defensive sub in center and moving Acuna to right. Seems like an unnecessary liability.

7:37	Eric A Longenhagen: Given the game state, I’m with you. Hamilton should be in soon, at least. Maybe after one of the corner guys hits next?

7:37	Morbo: Btw that wasn’t a dig it anything at Kiley, it has to be difficult to remain unbiased when you scouted for a team and they are playing

7:38	Eric A Longenhagen: eh, i dunno, people aren’t typically biased in favor of their exes

7:40	5 Run Homer: That is a BEARD

7:40	Eric A Longenhagen: Are we sure it isn’t Dallas Braden?

7:42	Eric A Longenhagen: Brebbia released by NYY after many injuries way back in ’13, spent 2 years in Indy ball, Dbacks signed him (they’ve done well in Indy ball), then he was minor league Rule 5 by STL.

7:42	JoJo : Why did Fried pitch? Coming in for 1 inning like a bullpen day?

7:42	Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, still game 4 starter

7:43	bosoxforlife: How can Acuna act like that?

7:43	Eric A Longenhagen: 21 year olds are dumb most of the time

7:43	Eric A Longenhagen: your frontal cortex (which drives your decision making) doesn’t fully develop until you’re around 25

7:43	Jeff: Are there people outside every Braves home game reminding attendees that this thing cost taxpayer billions over years and years? There should be

7:43	Josh: What are rules for returning players taken in minor league R5 draft?

7:44	Eric A Longenhagen: similar, just with less $ moving around

7:45	Belli Flop: What did Acuña do? I cannot watch the broadcast at the moment.

7:45	Lee van Beef: You don’t need a fully developed frontal cortex to know that you’re supposed to run when you hit the ball…

7:46	Eric A Longenhagen: right I’m speaking broadly

7:46	Eric A Longenhagen: and it couldn’t hurt

7:46	Go Barves!: Smahsed it oppo off the wall, thought it was out, jogged to first holding his bat instead of sprinting

7:47	J: I thought you didn’t return players in the minor league Rule 5-you just give the other team $12K and then that player is in your system now

7:47	Eric A Longenhagen: right, but I mean as far as the timelines for eligibility

7:47	Go Barves!: Unpopular (maybe homer) opinion, give me the guy that can hit that below-the-strike-zone slider off the wall for a single than the guy that whiffs or dribbles it but runs hard…

7:48	Eric A Longenhagen: we’re not arguing about what makes players good, we’re saying the guy should’ve run in that situation

7:48	Go Barves!: Need to get a Benetti/Schur playoff booth

7:48	Jeff: How’s Alex Lange’s velocity in the AFL? He was throwing like 5-6 different pitches with the Cubs, have the Tigers leaned out his repertoire to expedite a transition to the bullpen?

7:48	Kiley McDaniel: what about a McDongenhagen booth

7:49	Eric A Longenhagen: We’d be fired by the third

7:48	Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve seen 4 pitches. Heater is 92-95

7:48	Morbo: Kiley might have a slight bias this game

7:49	Kiley McDaniel: i am the signing scout for any player that is succeeding

7:50	Belli Flop: We just need more Nerdcats.

7:50	Kiley McDaniel: Eric has one of those for sure

7:50	Dystopian Future: No, honestly, they have a statcast broadcast, why not have a scouts broadcast? Surely there are more people interested in that than just me, right? Not to mention that looking backwards at where guys came from would fill up the time between pitches.

7:51	Eric A Longenhagen: All media is splintering enough that this seems possible.

7:51	Kiley McDaniel: i mean i can’t be the only person thinking this

7:51	Guest: New meaning to backdoor slider

7:51	Kiley McDaniel: Would you watch at least 2 innings of a McDongenhagen broadcast YES (87.5% \| 49 votes) gross (12.5% \| 7 votes) Total Votes: 56

7:51	Lee van Beef: Haha you could see Donaldson say “SHIT!”

7:51	Adam2: Just how Miller intended to get 2!

7:52	Mo money, Molina: i think there might be some selection bias to that poll…

7:52	Eric A Longenhagen: (nods)

7:53	J: With Lange and Hatch having success post trade, how (much more) concerned should the Cubs be about their pitching dev

7:54	Eric A Longenhagen: I agree there are enough instances of this sort of thing (along with all those college arms they drafted not doing much) to say, ‘hey, maybe we’re bad at this right now’

7:54	Jeff: How soon will Richard Gallardo’s name be hitting the outside world (non-Cubs fans)? I’m thinking 2020 at 18, that guy is serious bidness

7:55	Eric A Longenhagen: just looked okay this year. Stuff is more average than above, but he’s a great athlete and advanced for his age. Don’t think he’ll have a huge velo spike or anything, more of a back-of-rotation likelihood.

7:55	Belli Flop: Chris Martin has injured himself, it appears.

7:56	Eric A Longenhagen: Luke Jackson coming in

7:58	5 Run Homer: Is the Misery Index a game show about the Baltimore Orioles?

7:59	Eric A Longenhagen: Jameela Jamil hosts: The Running Man

7:59	Go Barves!: Would love to see some super slo-mo of Jackson’s slider

8:00	Eric A Longenhagen: I have none, Kiley needs to go to more Braves games with Slomie

8:00	Adam2: Loooooooong

8:00	Derek: This has been an unfortunate sequence of events for the Braves…

8:00	5 Run Homer: GOLDYBOMB

8:01	Eric A Longenhagen: SunTrust’s collective buttcheeks clenching right now

8:01	Wireless Joe Jackson: Why is Ozuna wearing that neon yellow arm jazz? Shouldn’t it be team colors?

8:01	Eric A Longenhagen: endorsement deal with Sharpie

8:01	RandyMarsh: Do any scouts play OOTP?

8:02	Eric A Longenhagen: Unsure. I play Diamond Mind

8:03	Eric A Longenhagen: Braves bullpen: Newcomb, Tomlin, Melancon Braves bench: Hamilton, Flowers

8:03	Go Barves!: Can we get your scouting takes on Jackson’s slider? Saw a piece on FG earlier this year about it, and it looked unlike any pitch I’ve seen before

8:04	Eric A Longenhagen: So, it’s a knuckle slider. I have no slowmo of it but I do have one of a similar pitch. It’ll take a minute to show you, but I have it…

8:06	Heartbroken A’s pass holder: A’s Over or Under 100 wins 2020

8:06	Eric A Longenhagen: Under, if only because the division will be tough again

8:08	Mo money, Molina: would you let bader hit here?

8:09	Eric A Longenhagen: Would you let bader hit here? Yes (26.6% \| 12 votes) No, hit with Carpenter (68.8% \| 31 votes) No, hit with other (Witers, Arozarena, Munoz) (4.4% \| 2 votes) Total Votes: 45

8:09	slammer: Under 100 with Montas, Manaea, and Luzardo for the full season?

8:10	Eric A Longenhagen: I’m skeptical Manaea’s 5-start excellence is sustainable. I know that heater plays for other reasons, but 88-92 is no bueno.

8:14	Adam2: This is exciting

8:14	Eric A Longenhagen: agreed

8:14	Eric A Longenhagen: all the games have been good so far

8:14	Go Barves!: V. Nervous!

8:15	5 Run Homer: Have you ever seen someone so out in your life

8:15	Dystopian Future: Duvall just earned his roster spot

8:15	Derek: What a strange game

8:16	Eric A Longenhagen: Carp hits a flare single down the left field line, it falls, DeJong scores tying run, but Duvall hoses Wong at the plate to end the innings

8:16	Eric A Longenhagen: Wild game

8:17	Eric A Longenhagen: Carp stays in the game at 3B, Fowler moves to CF, Edman to RF

8:18	Guest: That play at the plate was going to be at least close, but the ball landed on the edge of the grass and hopped back towards the plate to make it easy

8:18	jhcards: Would I be able to find anywhere on Wong’s sprint speed and see if it was below his norm? I feel like he probably would’ve scored without the injury.

8:18	Eric A Longenhagen: maybe not on the individual play, you can always try tweeting at Petriello

8:18	Dave: On the replay, it looked like Wong took off at full speed but slowed down for a bit before 2nd base.

8:20	Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, who ya got? Cardinals (35.3% \| 23 votes) Braves (64.6% \| 42 votes) Total Votes: 65

8:22	Eric A Longenhagen: ETA on that knuckle slider video is 2min

8:22	Eric A Longenhagen: Nats/Dodgers will get underway in 10min. What TNT re-run will they preempt and draw the ire of a certainly rabid fanbase?

8:23	stever20: had to go out for a bit. What happened to Martin for the Braves?

8:23	Eric A Longenhagen: walked off the mound grabbing his left side after throwing his last warmup pitch

8:24	Brian CashGod: https://www.tntdrama.com/schedule – Transformers apparently

8:24	Brian CashGod: Michael Bay is gonna EXPLODE

8:25	Eric A Longenhagen: https://vimeo.com/364193152

8:25	Wireless Joe Jackson: Cervelli swinging away here? Interesting.

8:27	Eric A Longenhagen: Run expectancy (just a run scoring, not how many) drops by a little with a bunt, but that ignores who’s coming up to hit

8:27	Eric A Longenhagen: starting the runner got them what they needed, if not what they wanted

8:28	stever20: Braves may have to remove Martin from LDS roster possibly if this goes long to get a fresh arm for tomorrow.

8:28	Eric A Longenhagen: yep, Teheran?

8:28	Russ: What’s the point of having Billy Hamilton of the playoff roster if not to run for Duvall?

8:29	J: If Martin goes off the roster he can’t return until the World Series right?

8:30	Eric A Longenhagen: Mhmm, obliques are tough to heal quickly but they can alter their roster before each series

8:31	Eric A Longenhagen: Cards moved guys around so they avoid the pitcher spot for as long as possible. This is the kind of thing Edman’s versatility enables.

8:33	Eric A Longenhagen: That 1-1 changeup by Martinez was awesome, maybe the best pitch of the night

8:33	Dystopian Future: Announcers for Nationals-Dodgers TV are Ernie Johnson and Jeff Francoeur, if anyone’s interested in that.

8:35	lee: It still amazes me that the broadcasting crews from The Waterboy and Dodgeball would be better than any national MLB crew

8:36	Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve made peace with the fact that the broadcasts aren’t for us. We’re gonna watch no matter what. Love the Benetti/EP/Petriello nerdcast, would love a scouting version, but know that just doesn’t move the needle for networks

8:36	Mitch: How long can Martinez go here? He has been a starter

8:36	Eric A Longenhagen: good question

8:37	Eric A Longenhagen: maxed at 41 pitches hits year

8:37	Eric A Longenhagen: threw 30-35 pitches a handful of times, I’m guessing that’s the upper boundary

8:37	5 Run Homer: Chipper catching a fly ball is good content

8:37	Eric A Longenhagen: def hammered

8:38

RandyMarsh: Joe Davis & Orel Hershiser have been great for the Dodgers & love it when Davis is doign national tv work w/ Fox.

Davis frequently brings up stats like wRC+, WAR & FIP, while Orel is great at providing the old-school viewpoint without sounding like a whiny old man – he’d just say stuff like “this is what we used to do & this is what I think, but this is the rationale behind the (insert “new school” move here)”

8:38	Eric A Longenhagen: yeah I dig those guys

8:39	Kiley McDaniel: the chicken thighs are done, guys and they look great

8:41	Derek: Wow, that was some really good baserunning by Fowler

8:41	Eric A Longenhagen: Tommy Edman gets on top of a fastball at the top of the zone, grounder to RF for a 1B, Fowler first to third

8:41	bosoxforlife: Here on the east coast I was hoping the 5:00 game would be over and I could grab dinner between games, no such luck. The stir-fry is ready to go.

8:43	Ben Clemens: Hey guys, just got back from some much-needed dog exercising, so jumping in early.

8:44	Eric A Longenhagen: walk to Goldy became foregone conclusion when Melancon ran 2-0

8:44	Wireless Joe Jackson: No margin for error now.

8:44	Ben Clemens: Never a dull moment in Cardinals-Braves games it seems.

8:45	Eric A Longenhagen: right, but you set up the double play

8:45	Eric A Longenhagen: Ozuna’s near the top of the league at rate of 95+mph balls in play

8:46	Dystopian Future: Marcell Ozuna in play, run(s) to left field.

8:46	Eric A Longenhagen: 0-2 curveball left up a little tiny bit too much, hooked into lf corner for a double

8:46	Adam2: 1-2-3 top of 1st for Buehler

8:47	Ben Clemens: The Braves have gotten some good breaks on those rocketed grounders to third so far today; that was quite the reversal.

8:47	Ben Clemens: How many 5-3 double plays did they have today? 2?

8:47	5 Run Homer: Wait the bases are juiced again?

8:47	Eric A Longenhagen: yeah they gave a free pass to Yadi

8:48	Eric A Longenhagen: really trying to roll one here

8:48	Ben Clemens: Both walks seem totally defensible.

8:48	Adam2: Do IBBs count toward BB/9?

8:48	Ben Clemens: They do; towards BB% as well. wOBA disregards them.

8:49	Cube Jockey: That looked foul.

8:49	Go Barves!: Damn, that’s rough

8:50	Wireless Joe Jackson: Matched sets of groundball doubles. Not too much to be done about that.

8:50	Eric A Longenhagen: rough turn for ATL

8:50	Eric A Longenhagen: Buehler was 97-98 the whole first inning, btw

8:50	Dystopian Future: Eric, how did you feel about Victor Robles’ first full big league season?

8:51	Eric A Longenhagen: Overall thought it was fine but the ceiling on the bat is probably lower than we thought it might be when he was a prospect.

8:51	Jimbo: What’s the thinking behind the Yadi walk – not as good at baserunning?

8:51	Eric A Longenhagen: barrel accuracy just doesn’t seem there

8:51	Ben Clemens: He’s also very high contact as compared to DeJong. With only one out I like that one.

8:52	Eric A Longenhagen: Corbin had leadoff walk to Pollock, then k’d Freese

8:52	J: In football news, the Seahawks are wearing full uniforms the color of Ozuna’s arm sleeve

8:53	Mo money, Molina: Corbin is one of my fav pitchers to watch. Love the 12 different sliders/curves he has

8:53	Ben Clemens: Corbin is a top 5 pitcher to watch in all of baseball for me. I try to never miss a start.

8:53	Craig Edwards: I’m attempting to join the fray, but also attempting to get a baby to sleep so could be in and out for the next little bit.

8:53	Ben Clemens: He’s kind of Darvish-lite when it comes to fun to watch pitches.

8:54	Eric A Longenhagen: Guess Hamilton will hit for Newc to leadoff th 9th for ATL

8:55	Go Barves!: Makes that pitching change seem even weirder

8:56	Eric A Longenhagen: Bellinger walk. 2 on 2 out for Taylor (who I’m calling first pitch hacking)

8:57	Eric A Longenhagen: (they threw him a slider in the dirt)

8:57	Dystopian Future: That’s why Billy Hamilton is on the roster, to pinch hit in the ninth inning. Right?

8:57	Ben Clemens: I’m pretty sure the Braves were not hoping to have Hamilton bat in this series, much less in a high leverage spot.

8:58	Ben Clemens: Though I suppose this isn’t incredibly high leverage anymore.

8:58	Go Barves!: Point still stands, Ben.

8:58	Ben Clemens: Yeah- oof.

9:00	Mo money, Molina: No lead is safe with C-mart

9:00	NathanLazarus: Gomes didn’t looked crossed up there, so much as unable to catch the ball.

9:00	Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he hasn’t been very good with the receiving lately

9:00	Dystopian Future: To his credit, Hamilton put up a really good at bat and got on base.

9:00	Fire Ken Tremendous: Bases juiced at the Ravine!

9:01	Go Barves!: lol great username there ^

9:01	5 Run Homer: Based loaded for the Dodgers and they haven’t put a ball in play yet

9:02	J: Not to be a cliche but the Hamilton BB is far worse than the Acuña bomb

9:02	Eric A Longenhagen: it’s worse because Hamilton should’ve been forced to put a ball in play, yeah

9:02	Matt: Is max muncy a present day dan uggla?

9:02	Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s better around the bag

9:02	Greg: First time ever a team running out of mound visits might actually matter?

9:02	Ben Clemens: Eh – it won’t matter.

9:03	Dystopian Future: That’s a pitch selection problem, why are you throwing Billy Hamilton an offspeed pitch 3-2? I don’t get it.

9:03	Eric A Longenhagen: agreed

9:03	5 Run Homer: 1-0 Dodgers

9:03	Eric A Longenhagen: Muncy walk pushed a run home

9:03	Ben Clemens: Yeah I truly do not understand throwing Hamilton a single breaking ball in that at bat.

9:04	Eric A Longenhagen: Close play on Albies at 1b…called out but at first glance I thought it was a tie

9:04	Eric A Longenhagen: barely out

9:04	NathanLazarus: Patrick Corbin true outcomes: 6, lyin’ outcomes: 0.

9:05	Mo money, Molina: we just got a lyin outcome for corbin

9:05	Brian CashGod: Better news for the Dodgers – that they scored a run, or made Corbin throw 30 pitches?

9:05	Eric A Longenhagen: Corbin wiggles out of serious shit, leaves the first down just 1-0

9:05	Ben Clemens: Seager wanted to end the game there, I suppose.

9:06	Muxosk : Too early to start the no-hitter watch for Corbin??

9:06	Craig Edwards: Scoring a run. Small change in scoring runs later isn’t as good as scoring a run now. Still good that they got out of the inning with so little damage if you are the Nats.

9:06	Eric A Longenhagen: The review of the Albies play is to see if Goldy came off the bag. If he did, it was barely so, not enough to see. Call stands, Albies out

9:06	Ben Clemens: That seems like one of those calls that was never going to get overturned, no matter which way it was initially called.

9:07	Dystopian Future: Freddie Freeman in play, run(s) to center field.

9:07	Brian CashGod: wow that ball was crushed

9:07	Craig Edwards: Martinez hasn’t thrown the cutter so he goes mostly away from lefties, which could play into Freeman’s hands, who hasn’t been looking to pull.

9:07	Ben Clemens: Wow Freeman obliterated that.

9:07	Craig Edwards: yup

9:07	Brian CashGod: time to switch back to the Braves & Cardinals everybody

9:07	Ben Clemens: Bringing in Newcomb to face Carlos Martinez looks especially weird now.

9:09	Dystopian Future: I wonder if the Braves saw something or thought Melancon was too rattled to finish the inning. It’s bad to have to switch pitchers to face the pitcher; would’ve been so much worse if Melancon walked Martinez.

9:09	Craig Edwards: good dig by Goldschmidt. That’s going to help the Goldy saves a billion runs narrative.

9:09	Ian: Do the Nationals lead the league in over exaggerated takes on balls that barely miss the zone?

9:09	Ben Clemens: Pretty sure Puig leads the league all by himself in that category.

9:10	Ben Clemens: Puig takes are best takes.

9:10	Dominik: How is Martinez still pitching after giving up two dongs?

9:10	Eric A Longenhagen: Soto got 3-1 heater middle/up, lined for 1B

9:10	Ben Clemens: They might not have been all that frequent this year, but they’re comic.

9:10	Ben Clemens: Wow uh…. what was Markakis doing there?

9:10	Craig Edwards: He hadn’t thrown that many pitches.

9:11	Eric A Longenhagen: okay folks, that’s ir for me

9:11	Ben Clemens: Well, I have to say, I don’t generally enjoy trying to comment and be neutral-ish about Cards games, so I’m happy to send it over to LA

9:11	Eric A Longenhagen: enjoy the night game, everyone

9:12	Craig Edwards: I thought Buehler was going to have a shot at as many pitches in two innings as Corbin had in one but doesn’t look like it will happen.

9:12	NathanLazarus: Enjoy the night, Eric.

9:12	Craig Edwards: We are just keeping this chat going so no need to go anywhere else.

9:12	Craig Edwards: Have fun, Eric.

9:12	Ben Clemens: I don’t want to make any predictions, but this chat is likely to have less multi-inning digressions on philosophy than last night’s.

9:13	Craig Edwards: shots fired.

9:13	Ben Clemens: Well, it was me in last night’s too.

9:13	Wireless Joe Jackson: So, uh… what’s gotten into Howie Kendrick this year?

9:13	Craig Edwards: you think I can’t be high-brow?

9:14	Ben Clemens: Oh haha let’s be clear, these were not good philosophical discussions.

9:14	Craig Edwards: Kendrick has been good recently on occasion but rarely healthy.

9:14	Ben Clemens: Last night’s game was quite bad.

9:14	Ben Clemens: Aside from the Statcast broadcast, which was A+

9:14	Craig Edwards: too late. I’m already offended.

9:14	Ben Clemens: If that could just be ESPN’s A team I’d be thrilled

9:14	…: The statcast broadcast is what I live for

9:14	Craig Edwards: they were all great.

9:15	Go Barves!: My wife said during the review of the Albies grounder in the 9th, “according to physics, nothing is actually touching anyway, so he’s probably safe.” She’s great

9:15	Ben Clemens: This would lead to some long innings!

9:15	Ben Clemens: Although, when he scored wouldn’t he be out for not touching first?

9:16	Yolo: This zone is awful

9:16	Ben Clemens: It is not. great.

9:16	Ben Clemens: Not as bad as I thought the zone was in the Nats/Brewers game but not great.

9:16	Lou: The Braves flaming out would be MadBum’s best scenario right?

9:16	Craig Edwards: I don’t think the Braves are likely to be influenced much by how they do in the postseason.

9:17	John: anyone else think walker buehler looks like adam driver?

9:17	Ben Clemens: Now that you say it, I kind of see it, but I’d never thought that before.

9:18	stever20: so what do you think about the Nats actually going with Strasburg now tomorrow?

9:19	Ben Clemens: I like it. I think I’d like it more if they’d gone with a 12 man pen, because he might have ‘no restrictions’ but he doesn’t really have no restrictions. But I like setting him up for game 5

9:19

Craig Edwards: One note on the Cardinals-Braves game: Narrative going in, certainly perpetuated by myself, is the Cardinals defense helped them win games, but it directly caused the Braves lead. The Braves bullpen has been good lately, was not, and Carlos Martinez, who has done very well as the Cardinals closer, was not good. Just a reminder that in just one game, the narratives we spend so much time talking about, can be turned on their head.

9:19	Wire Fan: Pace of play suggestion: outlaw velcro (what would hitters do between pitches?)

9:19	Craig Edwards: they’d find something to wrangle with. Need to keep them in the box. It had a tangible effect when they enforced it a few years ago.

9:19	Ben Clemens: This modern baseball commercial is excellent. Gets me excited every year.

9:19	Ben Clemens: every time***

9:20	Go Barves!: Feature or bug, Craig? Was just talking about those same themes with my friends

9:21	John: Also, last night’s chat was a wonderful respite from that awful game. It reminded me of carson on FG audio episodes of yore

9:21	Ben Clemens: You know, if I could get that aesthetic every time, I’d be perfectly happy.

9:21

Craig Edwards: I think it is a feature. If all of the events in front of us unfolded exactly as we think they should, it would be a pretty unexciting sport. Even if we think 80% is predictable, what happens in that 20% is what makes the game exciting. Watching great players do great things is very special, but watching slightly less great players do great things gives you goosebumps.

9:23

Dystopian Future: Howie Kendrick has really evolved as a hitter, and it’s a joy to see, honestly. He has a .418 xwOBA this year, and he’s pairing a 48% hard-hit rate with a 13% K%. He’s awesome, but I think he’s just a little too old to play every day now. I’d like to see him DHing for an AL team some to save his legs.

9:23	Craig Edwards: A DH you say?

9:24	Greg: What is the record for most walks in a post-season start?

9:25	Craig Edwards: Looks like Bill Bevens walked 10 in the 1947 World Series for the Yankees against the Dodgers. He only gave up three runs in 8.2 innings but lost on a walkoff

9:25	lee: Walker Buehler getting the first Dodger hit of the night is all of that in one moment 🙂

9:25	Mo money, Molina: over/under 5 innings for corbin?

9:25	Craig Edwards: I’ll go over.

9:25	Ben Clemens: But spare a thought for Paul Abbott, who walked eight without giving up a run in the 2001 ALCS.

9:25	Wireless Joe Jackson: WTF is Utz, by the way?

9:25	Craig Edwards: chips.

9:26	Ben Clemens: The Nats better hope it’s over given the bullpen they’re running in this series.

9:26	stever20: about as bad of a start for the Nats as possible, and down only 1-0…

9:26	Muxosk : Corbin gonna be given a Nolan Ryan Pitch count with this Nats pen.

9:27	Ben Clemens: I think this is probably true. Sometimes you just have to let your prized free agent pitch until he’s done.

9:27	Derek: Utz are delicious

9:27	Craig Edwards: the ad campaign is working

9:27	Ben Clemens: No sense in trying to manage the modern postseason-y way when you have the Nats’ bullpen.

9:27	Nick: No need to worry about Corbin’s pitch count with that crack Nats’ bullpen, right?

9:28	Craig Edwards: really need that sarcasm font.

9:28	Derek: I used to work at the Utz pretzel factory as a summer job while in college, and I actually gained weight despite spending 48 hrs/week walking around a warehouse because of all the free chips/pretzels etc.

9:28	Jesse: Utz dill pickle chips are wonderful. Somehow taste like a McDonald’s hamburger?

9:28	Ben Clemens: Two of my very good friends from college are Nats fans, and listening to them talk about the bullpen is not fun for anyone.

9:28	Ben Clemens: Yikes.

9:29

Dystopian Future: Bill Bevens in the ’47 world series? That’s a really famous start, that was the Cookie Lavagetto walkoff ending a possible no hitter. It’s why he pitched 8 2/3 innings. He only gave up one hit, and it ended the game. He also walked 10, a record, beating out former record of 9 by Jack Coombs in 1910.

9:30	Muxosk : If there were instructional videos on correct pitching form in 1957 the motion would probably look a lot like Walker Buehler.

9:31	Ben Clemens: He repeats his delivery incredibly well.

9:31	Craig Edwards: Worth noting Corbin has gone at least 110 pitches 4 times this season, with a high of 118 so we could see something like that tonight.

9:31	stever20: wow Braves now after tomorrow 30 straight postseason games played without the series lead. Most ever- tied with the 11-21 Giants. That’s 1911-1921. game 3 would be 31 as best case 1-1.

9:31	Craig Edwards: that’s odd

9:32	Dystopian Future: (I think. I’m going off of memory here, feel free to fact-check me and tell me if I’m wrong. I’m currently looking it up.)

9:32	Nolan: Would the Nats consider using a starter as a bridge to the end of their pen, if Corbin really can’t go more than 3 or 4?

9:32	Craig Edwards: you are correct. first hit was the game winner.

9:32	Ben Clemens: I think it really depends on the game situation. If it’s 6-0 or something, I’m not sure it makes that much sense. Suero and Voth can go multiple innings.

9:32	stever20: any one else having problems with the video tonight with the Dodgers/Nats game?

9:32	Craig Edwards: a little choppy maybe

9:32	Ben Clemens: Mine is quite choppy; I’m watching on YouTube TV.

9:33	Wireless Joe Jackson: Choppy on Sling for sure.

9:33	5 Run Homer: It’s been choppy on MLB.TV

9:33	Ben Clemens: Looks like the consensus is that it’s choppy on everything.

9:34	Craig Edwards: Rooting for: Dodgers (42.3% \| 33 votes) Nationals (57.6% \| 45 votes) Total Votes: 78

9:34	Dystopian Future: Here’s an article about it from SABR with some background, if anyone’s interested in reading some backstory, etc https://sabr.org/research/1947-dodgers-cookie-lavagetto-ends-bill-beve…

9:36	Ben Clemens: I loooooove the Corbin slow curve.

9:36	Guest: SLOWER CURVE ALERT

9:36	Ben Clemens: Great minds.

9:37	Craig Edwards: I watched Turner step into the batters box, then I saw Rendon with the ball. Looks like he was out.

9:38	Ben Clemens: The prestige.

9:39	Dystopian Future: Yeah, it looks like the choppiness in the video is producer-side, not consumer-side. I had the same random blackout on the same lineout in the same way.

9:39	Ben Clemens: I’m really not looking forward to a Cody Bellinger can’t play in the playoffs narrative if he looks bad this series, but I’m pretty sure it will happen.

9:40	Trent: Will we as baseball fans be disappointed or encouraged to see how the NLDS ratings compare to the NFL tonight?

9:40	Ben Clemens: People who don’t see the Dodgers play that often probably still think of him as notably lost on breaking balls still, even though he’s completely turned that around.

9:41	RandyMarsh: Don’t worry Ben we already have “postseason kershaw” memes no matter how bad bellinger is that narrative will be 2nd fiddle to Kershaw

9:41	Craig Edwards: I wouldn’t worry too much about it. The NFL is going to get better ratings. That’s just the way things are and the way tv watching is currently set up.

9:41	Mo money, Molina: Corbin no-no still alive!

9:41	Craig Edwards: Sure is.

9:42	RandyMarsh: Also Bellinger was really focused in APril/May, but slowly began to strike out a lot more w/ the slider down & outside. The backfoot breaking ball from RHP was his kryptonite, and he fixed it but I noticed that pitchers began to attack him low & outside instead

9:42	Ben Clemens: Some analyst wrote about this:

9:42	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/finding-cody-bellingers-weakness/

9:42	Ben Clemens: Probably some hack, though 🙂

9:43	Ben Clemens: In all honesty, with a swing like Bellinger’s, there will probably always be some cat and mouse. Hard to cover literally everything with a swing that long.

9:43	Craig Edwards: that was a really long time ago. Who knows if it still holds true.

9:44	Ben Clemens: prescient, though: “our final and only real potential area to get Bellinger out is low and away.”

9:44	Wireless Joe Jackson: Seems like we’re all watching on streaming services. Does that even get counted in ratings?

9:44	Craig Edwards: I think it counts.

9:45	RandyMarsh: with the juiced ball every fly ball I do a double take lmao

9:45	John: There also has to be some mental adjustment we make when comparing nielson ratings (an outdated system already) because the NFL is on broadcast tv and the Dodgers nats is on cable, driving people to things like sling, mlb.tv, internet streams that ratings dont account for

9:45	Ben Clemens: The combination of the ball and the camera angle they’re using in some of these games makes me think every single ball in the air is gone.

9:46	Craig Edwards: Ratings don’t matter as much to the people in charge when games are on cable. They care about subscriptions.

9:46	John: Edit: Nielsen does count youtube tv and hulu live

9:47	Connor: How deep do you guys think buehler will go if it stays a 1 run game? Do we see may/maeda/urias in the 7th?

9:47	Ben Clemens: Eaton trying to get to first before there was a call either way just in case.

9:47	Ben Clemens: He went full Brandon Nimmo there.

9:48	Craig Edwards: Depends on how he looks. If he’s at 90 pitches through 6, that means he’s been efficient and he probably goes to the seventh if his spot in the order wasn’t up. If his pitch count keeps creeping up, we’ll see that pen.

9:49	Matt Damon: Buehler at 59 pitches in 3.1 IP

9:49	Craig Edwards: yeah, he’s throwing a lot.

9:49	Matt Damon: Corbin at 58 pitches in 3 IP

9:49	Craig Edwards: also a lot.

9:50	Ben Clemens: I do love that we had a low-strikeout starter game first, and then a high-strikeout nightcap

9:50	Ben Clemens: Baseball, then and now.

9:51	RandyMarsh: He tinkered w/ his delivery his last start of the season, and was wild then too. Said he saw the film of his game 163 and saw some things that were different but I think the new delivery is messing his command of his breaking ball a bit

9:51	Ben Clemens: Look, I’m no pitching scientist.

9:51	Craig Edwards: so was he running on the 3-2 count. The broadcast wondered and then said nothing.

9:51	Ben Clemens: But I’d be terrified to tinker with my delivery this late in the year.

9:52	Adam2: Is Soto weird?

9:52	Ben Clemens: I really have no idea what that was there.

9:52	Ben Clemens: Was there an insect out there or something?

9:52	Dystopian Future: Does Anthony Rendon ever not look totally relaxed?

9:52	Ben Clemens: He does have a very demonstrative take, but that little hand wave was something else.

9:53	Craig Edwards: I just did a google image search and can confirm that he always looks relaxed.

9:53	5 Run Homer: Soto has a weird stance

9:53	Craig Edwards: Is he a flat-earther?

9:54	Wire Fan: Buehler’s gotten away with some bad pitches

9:54	Ben Clemens: You know, batting average is a bad stat. It’s dumb. But Howie Kendrick is hitting .440 since July 28th, apparently, and that’s pretty amazing.

9:55	Ben Clemens: Oh no, “professional hitter” is back.

9:55	Craig Edwards: That one to Soto for sure

9:56	5 Run Homer: Howie Kendrick is the professionalest hitter

9:56	Craig Edwards: very adeqautic

9:57	Craig Edwards: professional hitter is basically just a way to say has a high batting average without actually saying that.

9:57	Fire Ken Tremendous: The Life Adeqautic?

9:57	Craig Edwards: brimming with adequatulence.

9:57	Dystopian Future: I always wonder when they call guys professional hitters, who isn’t a professional hitter? Are they sneaking in random people from the street every once in a while to hit?

9:57	Ben Clemens: Look, only the Marlins and Orioles are doing that, it’s not everybody.

9:58	Guest: I always interpreted professional hitter as patient/ high OBP

9:58	Ben Clemens: For whatever reason I associate it with a low chase rate.

9:58	Connor: The Yankees have an extremely effective training video so the random guys they bring in turn into professional hitters

9:59	Ben Clemens: “Hello, and welcome to Yankee Industries.”

9:59	5 Run Homer: going the other way is vital in being a professional hitter

9:59	Dystopian Future: Professional hitter is the go-to term whenever a hitter works the count to 2-2 or 3-2 and broadcasters run out of other things to say.

9:59	Ben Clemens: The real key is that professional hitter is a way to compliment someone when you don’t really have any concrete things to go with.