How New Mariner Zach Duke Reinvented Himself

Five years ago, Zach Duke found himself in a sobering situation. The then-30-year-old left-hander had exercised an August 1 opt-out clause — he’d been pitching well for Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate — and his next opportunity was seemingly right around the corner. With 200 big-league appearances under his belt, it was only a matter of time until his phone rang and he was fielding offers.

Instead, all he heard was crickets.

“I was on the verge,” Duke admitted this past weekend. “When you make yourself available to every team and none of them want you, that’s a pretty good indicator that the end might be near. To be honest, I thought that might be it.”

After reinventing himself, though, he’s not only still pitching, he’s a wanted man. Earlier today, the Seattle Mariners acquired Duke from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello. His appeal to the pennant contenders is apparent in the numbers. In 45 relief appearances covering 37.1 innings, Duke has a 3.62 ERA, a 58.5% ground-ball rate, and has yet to give up a gopher.

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Astros Trade for Elite Closer Currently Suspended for Domestic Violence

Roberto Osuna made his major-league debut in 2015. Since then, among all relievers with at least 100 innings, he ranks in the 88th percentile in park-adjusted ERA. Even better, he ranks in the 95th percentile in park-adjusted FIP, and he ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout-minus-walk rate. For the most part, when Osuna has been able to pitch, he’s been very, very good, and he’s blossomed into one of the game’s better closers. It’s just that he hasn’t pitched in the majors since May 6. Not because of an injury — Osuna’s arm, presumably, is just fine. Rather, he’s currently serving out a 75-game suspension for domestic violence. He’s eligible to return this coming weekend.

The Astros want for Osuna to return wearing their uniform. And so Monday has brought news of a trade.

Astros get:

  • Roberto Osuna

Blue Jays get:

The Astros are trying to repeat as World Series champions, and they identified an opportunity to land a cost-controlled, elite young reliever. Osuna’s controlled another two years after this one. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, identified an opportunity to buy low on a cost-controlled, potentially elite reliever. Giles is also controlled another two years after this one. Paulino and Perez, as well, are intriguing power-armed prospects. As a baseball trade, there’s enough here to be fascinating. But this isn’t just a baseball trade.

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Mariners Acquire Adam Warren for Role He Deserves

As reported by the indefatigable Ken Rosenthal and Emily Waldon of The Athletic, the Seattle Mariners acquired relief pitcher Adam Warren on Monday afternoon from the New York Yankees in return for bonus slot money.

Is it possible for a bullpen to be too good? Obviously, at some level, that’s a silly question: no lead is 100% safe and, consequently, a team should never stop surveying what it has. But there’s also the question of utility. Any given club is bound to play only so many high-leverage innings. While you’d rather have a good reliever in the game than a poor one, the stuff you can get in return for that good reliever may simply be more useful to your franchise. Warren has been used mainly in low-leverage scenarios this season. Consider: of the eight Yankee pitchers primarily used in relief this season who have thrown at least 20 innings, Warren’s entered the game in the second-least crucial situations overall, ahead of only A.J. Cole, who has more swingman-type utility than Warren.

Chasen Shreve has already been traded by the Yankees for similar reasons, Zach Britton’s arrival in the Bronx only making the competition for those high-pressure situations more fierce. Tommy Kahnle is still standing by if the team loses a reliever and there’s still depth remaining, including J.P. Feyereisen, who continues to refine his control, and Raynel Espinal.

Game-Entrance Leverage Index for Yankee Relievers, 2018
Name gmLI ERA FIP
Aroldis Chapman 1.65 1.93 1.71
Chad Green 1.49 2.74 3.29
David Robertson 1.44 3.61 2.87
Dellin Betances 1.21 2.44 2.35
Jonathan Holder 0.98 2.11 2.55
Chasen Shreve 0.85 4.26 4.98
Adam Warren 0.68 2.70 3.30
A.J. Cole 0.64 0.83 2.01
Min. 20 IP.

Just to illustrate how Warren’s skill are wasted by using him in the low-leverage innings available, just compare his performances to other relievers with 20 innings pitched and a game-entrance LI with 0.1 of Warren.

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The Early Returns on Travis Shaw at Second Base

Over the past few weeks, the Brewers have seemed to be in desperate need of a new second baseman. With Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Dozier, and Eduardo Escobar all available, the market looked promising for the Milwaukee. The Brewers, however, acquired none of them.

Instead, the club went another route, trading for third baseman Mike Moustakas. Milwaukee’s third baseman at the time was Travis Shaw. After arriving from Boston prior to the start of the 2017 season, Shaw has been pretty great for Milwaukee,producing a 118 wRC+ and 6.0 WAR. Those figures actually exceed Moustakas’ numbers during that time; the now former Royal has recorded a 110 wRC+ and 3.7 WAR during the same timeframe. In order to accommodate Moustakas, however, Shaw has moved from third base to second. It’s a roundabout way to solving the second-base problem. Is it an effective one, though?

Let’s figure out some reasonable expectations for Shaw and draw some too-early conclusions based on his first day on the job.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/30/18

1:59
Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s get this party started.

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Not only have I left emotes on, but I’ve put “Peanut Gallery” on.

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Which may be the biggest disaster ever, never to be repeated, but let’s try!

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Seems to work.  Trade Deadline is supposed to be a non-stop erotic cabaret, so we can take some risks.

2:00
Bret: Will the Blue Jays be able to trade Roberto Osuna? If so, how much of a discount will they need to give?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Aroldis Chapman was traded.  I expected they don’t, though.

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Players’ View: Learning and Developing a Pitch, Part 19

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the nineteenth installment of this series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Marco Estrada, Brad Hand, and Jake Odorizzi — on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

———

Marco Estrada (Blue Jays) on His Changeup

“I never really threw a changeup in high school or college. When I got to High-A, I met a kid named Clint Everts who threw a really good changeup, so I asked him how he held his. It was a pretty simple grip. I grabbed it and threw it a couple of times, and it came out pretty good. I actually took it into a game two or three days after that, and got a lot of swings and misses on it. That’s basically where it began.

“The way I hold it has been the same ever since, although I feel the action on it has been a little different lately — last year and this year. There’s a lot of talk about the balls being different and whatnot, and maybe that’s affecting it a little bit? But I just don’t feel that it’s been what it was. There are days where I throw a good one and kind of tell myself, “What did I do different?’ It felt the exact same, so, is it the ball? I don’t know what it could be.

Marco Estrada’s changeup grip.

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This Week’s Chat Schedule Is Slightly Different

The purpose of this post is to announce that this week’s chat schedule — because of the deadline and also because of Kiley McDaniel’s extensive contract rider — is slightly different than during other weeks of the year. The amended schedule appears below, with times presented in the more sophisticated 24-hour format to reflect the sophistication of this site’s readers.

Monday
14:00 Dan Szymborski

Tuesday
12:00 Justin Mason
15:00 Kiley McDaniel and Travis Sawchik Deadline Chat
16:00 Brad Johnson

Wednesday
12:00 Jeff Sullivan

Thursday
12:00 Jay Jaffe
14:00 Eric Longenhagen

Friday
12:00 Meg Rowley
15:00 Paul Sporer


MLB, Twitter, and Baseball’s Looming Age Problem

If you’re like me, you use Twitter. Twitter’s awesome! It gives you breaking news, reports on the latest trades, and also whatever this is:

And without Twitter, we wouldn’t have unfettered access to Brandon McCarthy’s observations of the world, which are worthwhile…

Twitter can be good, in other words.

As anyone familiar with that particular platform knows, however, it’s not always. As MLB learned this week, sometimes tweeting can become a pretty risky exercise. Not only have three young players been forced to contend with the ugly sentiments of their younger selves, but the league’s main account has also found itself in the middle of something, as well.

It started with this:

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Let’s Make Some Trades

Harper to the Yankees? It’s not not possible.
(Photo: Lorie Shaull)

There are only 24-ish hours remaining until baseball’s trade deadline and, truth is, I’m a bit impatient. Until free agency opens up in about a hundred days or thereabouts, this is truly our last great opportunity to let our imaginations run wild. Sure, we can conjure up some fun trades in August, but our whimsical mind-meanderings just aren’t as exciting when all of the players we trade have to go through imaginary revocable waivers.

Against my worse judgment, to which I typically cater, I endeavored to make my last-minute deadline trades to retain at least a whiff of plausibility. So, no blockbuster Mike Trout deal, no winning Noah Syndergaard in a game of canasta, and no Rockies realizing that they have significant other needs other than the bullpen.

Bryce Harper to the Yankees

Washington’s playoff hopes have sunk to the extent that, even if you’re as optimistic as the FanGraphs depth charts are and believe the Phillies and Braves are truly sub-.500 teams as presently constructed, the Nats still only are a one-in-three shot to win the division. If you’re sunnier on Philadelphia or Atlanta, those Nats probabilities lose decimal places surprisingly quickly.

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Sunday Notes: Eugenio Suárez Added Power and Sterling Sharp is a Pitching Ninja

Eugenio Suárez played in the All-Star Game earlier this month, so in some respects he’s not under the radar. But in many ways, he really is. The Cincinnati Reds third baseman is slashing .301/.387/.581, and he leads the National League in both wRC+ and RBIs. Were he playing in a bigger market, those numbers would make him… well, a star. Which he is… in relative anonymity.

Opposing pitchers certainly know who he is, and that’s been especially true this past week. Going into last night, Suárez had homered in five consecutive games, raising his season total to 24. That’s two fewer than last year’s career high, which came in his third season in Cincinnati. Count the Tigers’ former brain trust among those who didn’t see this coming. In December 2014, Detroit traded the then-23-year-old to the Reds for (gulp), Alfredo Simon.

“I don’t think anything has really changed,” Suárez claimed when I asked him about his evolution as a hitter. “I just play baseball like I did before. I’ve always been able to hit, just not for power like last year and this year.”

He attributes the power surge to maturity and hard work in the offseason. Asked to compare his current self to the 17-year-old kid who signed out of Venezuela in 2008, Suárez said the biggest difference is physicality. Read the rest of this entry »