Breaking Weird

There are three types of baseball. One is regular ol’ baseball. The second is extra-inning baseball, which is sometimes referred to as “#freebaseball”. And then finally, there’s Weird Baseball, stylized by the youths as “#weirdbaseball”.

Extra-inning baseball is like regular baseball, except — even more often than usual — batters are trying too hard to hit home runs. This leads occasionally to Weird Baseball. Scientists change their mind about what constitutes Weird Baseball once a month, during breaks when determining who is a millennial and who is not. Weird Baseball, at the moment, is technically denoted as baseball occurring in the 16th inning and onward.

I’m not the first to say it, but I’m the only to say in this blog post, that baseball is unlike other sports in that each team is tasked with playing basically every day. The result is a metronome-like effect, a dependable presence that lends order to life. But just like in life, chaos sometimes emerges from the order that baseball has created. Sometimes the chaos is a joyful sort; other times, it brings grief. In either case, it’s difficult to ignore. The chaos of #weirdbaseball is difficult to ignore.

Major League Baseball is trying to eliminate the chaos.

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Whither the Independent Leagues?

Last week, Congress passed — and President Trump’s signed into law — the Save America’s Pastime Act as part of the omnibus spending bill funding the operation of the federal government for the foreseeable future. As Sheryl Ring and I each noted last week, the act created a new exemption to the federal minimum-wage and maximum-hour laws applying to minor-league baseball players.

Specifically, under the new provision that went into effect on Friday, so long as Major League Baseball pays its minor leaguers the federal minimum wage for 40 hours per week during the regular season, the players will not be entitled to any additional pay for overtime or offseason work under federal law.

Although most commentators initially focused on the effect the provision is likely to have on those playing for one of MLB’s affiliated minor-league teams, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper noted last week that the new exemption could have dire implications for teams belonging to non-MLB-affiliated, so-called independent minor leagues (such as the American Association, Atlantic League, Frontier League, and Pacific Association). Yahoo’s Jeff Passan expressed a similar concern on Monday, while SB Nation’s Marc Normandin argued that these independent teams deserve to go out of business if they cannot afford to pay their most important employees the minimum wage.

Undoubtedly, the obligation to pay players the minimum wage would likely impose a financial hardship on many independent-league teams. But it’s not at all clear that that will actually be the end result of the Save America’s Pastime Act.

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2018 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (#16-30)

Unless you’ve stumbled upon this post by accident or have a particular passion for bullpens — particularly for teams with not particularly great bullpens — you are familiar with the positional power rankings here at FanGraphs. The position players were all covered last week, so don’t forget to read up on any you might have missed. Jeff Sullivan wrote a useful introduction that is also available among the links above.

I haven’t actually looked into this, but I would have to guess that these relief rankings are subject to the most volatility when it comes to how relievers actually play out by the end of the season. Jeff Sullivan recently noted the lack of consistency of bullpens from one year to the next. One could also look to last year’s rankings to make that point. The Arizona Diamondbacks were projected to finish last in these rankings a year ago, however, they finished 11th in 2017 reliever WAR. In addition to the Diamondbacks, the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Phillies, Rays, and Royals were all featured in the bottom half of last year’s rankings and ended the season in the top half by WAR.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1195: Season Preview Series: Mets and Rays

EWFI

In their final team-preview podcast of 2018, Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a new podcast-inspired song, the Scott Kingery, Ketel Marte, and Christian Vazquez extensions, Ben’s partially listener-inspired research about catcher offense, a Devil Rays close call, and whether the ball is juiced in MLB The Show, then preview the 2018 Mets (28:47) with MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, and the 2018 Rays (1:08:35) with CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson.

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Here Is What You Think of Our Team Projections

I think I say the same thing every year, but, I suppose, tradition is tradition. I run a lot of polling projects, crowdsourcing the FanGraphs audience, but out of all the polling projects, I enjoy this one the most. I don’t enjoy the first post; I enjoy analyzing the results. This is the results-analysis post. So often, our site supplies projections, and that’s that. If you see a projection you don’t like, you might say something in the comments or post something on Twitter, but that’s the end of it. Here, you get to have a collective voice. Not that we’re going to adjust our team projections based on this, mind you, but this is a chance to see community feedback.

Here is where you can see our best projected standings, taking schedule into account. As always, those are based on ZiPS projections, Steamer projections, and manually-maintained team depth charts. Those standings have been available now for a little while, but that doesn’t mean you have to think they’re correct. So last week, I ran a post with 30 polls, asking for your input. Is a given projection too optimistic? Is a given projection too pessimistic? I’ve got everything you said in a spreadsheet. This community is more fond of the Brewers, and it’s not so fond of the Blue Jays. That probably doesn’t surprise you. After all, you, the reader, are a part of the voting community.

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The Giants Really Didn’t Need a Madison Bumgarner Injury

A quick glance at the contract situation for the best players on the San Francisco Giants might make it appear as though the club is set up for the long haul. Of the Giants’ eight best players by projection this season, seven are locked up through at least 2020, with the eighth signed for two more seasons. Every single player expected to make a significant contribution is signed or under team control for at least two seasons, with Andrew McCutchen representing the only notable exception.

What that quick glance at the Giants’ contract situations might miss, however, is the ages of all of those contributors. With a veteran core, the Giants are very much in win-now mode and losing Madison Bumgarner — who likely won’t return until June after breaking his pinky finger — deals the team a big blow in what might be the team’s last best chance at another playoff run.

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2018 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (#1-15)

Starting pitching might be the most interesting aspect of this positional power rankings series, given how much impact it has on a team’s season. Jay got you warmed up with 16th- through 30th-ranked rotations this morning. Now here is a graphical look at the top 15:

The mainstays atop the list aren’t going to shock you. It’s the cream of the crop, including both of last season’s World Series entrants, within the top three. Two American League teams open up the list then the National League has four of the top six; of the American League’s top five, three come from the East division. Perhaps most shocking of all is the Rockies landing in the top 15, as they’ve developed a nice group of arms. The two Pennsylvania-based teams could have enough pitching to make some noise this year, and a fourth AL East team sneaks in right near the end.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:01
Travis Sawchik: Happy almost end of spring training, folks

12:01
Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started, shall we?

12:02
Mel: Projection for Kingery now that he’s up for good?

12:02
Travis Sawchik: It looks like Depth Charts haven’t been updated for volume, but we are forecasting a modest 87 wRC+

12:03
Lars: Jose Matinez a 10-team bat for you or too shallow?

12:03
Travis Sawchik: The upside is so great I’d spend a roster spot on him

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Scott Kingery and the Problem of the Prisoner’s Dilemma

Scott Kingery just signed a long-term deal with the Phillies for life-changing money. Congratulations, Scott! Of course, Kingery has yet to play in the big leagues, and that makes this deal unusual. The previous largest extension ever for a player who hadn’t yet debuted in the big leagues was Jon Singleton’s deal. That didn’t work out too well for the Astros, but Kingery is a great prospect. Odds are, Kingery will be fine, and this deal will be fine. That’s hard-hitting analysis for you.

There are two things in baseball that really pique my interest: rules and things that have never happened before. The Kingery extension is an example of the latter. This is something new, and that makes it interesting. What makes it doubly interesting is how my Twitter feed populated immediately after news of this deal had percolated through the interwebs for a time. People seemed to have one of two reactions:

  1. Kingery signed a below-market deal just to avoid starting in the minors and having his service time manipulated, and therefore this contract is a joke.
  2. The Phillies paid too much money to a guy who hasn’t shown anything (literally) at the big-league level yet, and therefore this contract is a joke.

The People seem to agree that the contract is a joke, but can’t quite agree on why. And both points can’t be true: if the contract is a joke because it’s a gross overpay, then it can’t also be a joke because it pays too little. And this got me thinking about the prisoner’s dilemma.

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Top 27 Prospects: New York Yankees

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Yankees. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Yankees Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Gleyber Torres 21 AAA SS 2018 60
2 Miguel Andujar 23 MLB 3B 2018 60
3 Justus Sheffield 21 AA LHP 2018 55
4 Albert Abreu 22 A+ RHP 2019 50
5 Estevan Florial 20 A+ CF 2020 50
6 Freicer Perez 22 A RHP 2020 50
7 Luis Medina 18 R RHP 2021 50
8 Chance Adams 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
9 Dillon Tate 23 AA RHP 2019 45
10 Domingo Acevedo 24 AAA RHP 2018 45
11 Thairo Estrada 22 AA SS 2019 45
12 Jonathan Loaisiga 23 R RHP 2020 45
13 Domingo German 25 MLB RHP 2018 40
14 Ezequiel Duran 18 R 2B 2022 40
15 Matt Sauer 19 R RHP 2021 40
16 Billy McKinney 23 AAA OF 2018 40
17 Clarke Schmidt 22 NCAA RHP 2021 40
18 Cody Carroll 25 AA RHP 2019 40
19 Dermis Garcia 20 A 3B 2021 40
20 Deivi Garcia 18 R RHP 2021 40
21 Nolan Martinez 19 R RHP 2022 40
22 Kyle Higashioka 27 MLB C 2018 40
23 Mike Ford 25 AAA 1B 2019 40
24 Tyler Austin 26 MLB OF 2018 40
25 Ben Heller 26 MLB RHP 2018 40
26 Oswaldo Cabrera 19 A 2B 2021 40
27 Trevor Stephan 22 A- RHP 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela
Age 20 Height 6’1 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 55/60 40/55 50/40 40/50 55/55

Torres was seen as one of the top two players in his July 2nd class (along with fellow top-100 prospect, White Sox RF Eloy Jimenez), profiling as the prototypical Venezuelan shortstop, featuring advanced feel for all aspects but no flashy plus tool. He’s developed largely as expected, no small feat for a celebrated 15-year-old, with his physicality and game power the biggest change in the last few years. Some scouts have wondered if he fits better at second or third base long-term, but Torres’s bat will profile anywhere in the dirt, and he’s big-league ready once he’s fully recovered from last June’s Tommy John surgery.

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