As spring training nears its conclusion, a few unsigned free agents have finally found homes. At best only one of these players will be ready for the majors in time to make the Opening Day roster, and all of them struggled to at least some extent last year, but at the very least, they’ll get another chance to extend their careers by providing depth to organizations hit by injuries. A double whammy of bad luck within their rotation has led the Rangers to sign lefty Patrick Corbin, while the Braves have triple dipped into the pool to sign catcher James McCann, outfielder Alex Verdugo, and reliever Craig Kimbrel.

On Tuesday, March 11 — the day I checked in on the Rangers in the wake of Jacob deGrom’s Cactus League debut — righty Tyler Mahle was scratched from his scheduled start due to forearm soreness, though he was able to take a start against minor leaguers on March 13 and returned to big league action on March 19. Texas wasn’t so lucky when it came to lefty Cody Bradford, who was scratched from his scheduled March 12 start due to left elbow soreness. He’s been shut down from throwing for four weeks and ticketed for the 15-day injured list to start the season; barring any further setbacks, a full buildup would bring him back in mid-May. Then on March 15, righty Jon Gray was hit by a line drive and suffered a fractured right wrist that knocked him onto the 60-day injured list. The break is clean enough that he won’t need surgery, but he’ll be out until at least June.

Given those injuries — and assuming no other ones occur — the Rangers are on track to start the season with an all-righty rotation consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, deGrom (who threw a mere 10 2/3 innings for the Rangers last September after returning from his second Tommy John surgery), Mahle (who threw just 12 2/3 innings between his return from Tommy John surgery and a season-ending bout of shoulder tightness), and former first-round picks Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, who each made their debuts last year. Rocker made three starts totaling 11 2/3 innings while pitching reasonably well, but Leiter was lit for an 8.83 ERA in six starts and three relief appearances totaling 35 2/3 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Want to hear something crazy? Aaron Judge is switching back to right field after an 11.2-WAR campaign, but this year’s top right field projection is still nearly half a win below last year’s. There is obviously some logic behind this: Last year, Ronald Acuña Jr. was younger than Judge and was coming off his own monstrous 2023 campaign. He also plays for a team with a penchant for driving its starters until the wheels fall of, so we had him projected for nearly every single plate appearance. But still, with Judge in right field again, we should probably expect bigger things. The Yankees’ right field projection trails only one other position player spot, Kansas City’s (and Bobby Witt Jr.’s) shortstop projection, and it trails by just one-tenth of a win. Read the rest of this entry »

Dylan Cease was 21 years old and coming off of his first full professional season when Eric Longenhagen evaluated him for our Chicago Cubs Top Prospect list in January 2017. Cease was then ranked seventh in the system, with Eric assigning him a 45 FV and suggesting that he was more likely a reliever than a starter down the road. Cease has obviously followed a more successful path. Now 29 and about to begin his seventh big league season, and second with the San Diego Padres, the right-hander has been a top-shelf starter for four years running. Over that span he has toed the rubber 130 times — no pitcher has started more games — and logged a 3.52 ERA and a 3.32 FIP. Twice he’s finished top four in the Cy Young Award voting.

What did Cease’s 2017 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Cease to respond to it.

———

“Cease has done an admirable job at quelling what was once a violent head whack while still retaining the kind of velocity that made him an exciting prep prospect.”

“That sounds kind of like an old-school baseball thing,” Cease responded. “But… I don’t know. Maybe that was a thing? I know that I had a very long arm stroke. I’d have to see video, but I don’t recall it being like crazy violent. Usually, if you’re a starter you’re not too violent. Maybe it was, but my having very long arm action was the most memorable thing.”

“He was also flashing a plus curveball in the 79-81 mph range during instructs, but the pitch is more consistently average and, at times, below when it featured an easily identifiable, shapely hump out of his hand.”

“It’s funny, because there was no Trackman data,” Cease said. “If it was today, it would be like, ‘It’s moving at 15 or 18,’ or whatever. But yeah, while my curveball is pretty good, it’s never been my biggest swing-and-miss [pitch] or anything like that. So I would say that was probably fairly accurate; it did pop out sometimes. I actually don’t [throw a curveball] as much anymore.”

“There are several concerns about Cease, ranging from his size to his command to a lack of a third pitch; he has very little changeup feel right now.”

“That’s never changed, the changeup part of it,” Cease agreed. “I’ve never really been a plus-command pitcher either. I have my spurts, but for the most part it’s just getting my good stuff in the strike zone. I’ve also never been the biggest, but here we are.”

“Cease actually pitches with a good bit of plane when he’s working down, because of his vertical arm slot.”

“That sounds right,” he replied. “My slot is the same now, but with shorter arm action. I feel like that changed in my first or second year in the big leagues. It just happened. I was working on my lower half, and for whatever reason it just kind of played out that way.”

“His fastball has enough life to miss bats up in the zone when he’s missing his spots.”

“I think that’s just saying when I’m throwing heaters up in the zone, even if they’re out of the zone, sometimes I get the swings and misses,” Cease reasoned. “Basically it’s got good life. As for [the part about missing spots], honestly, I think I was just trying to throw it over; I was just trying to get it in the zone.”

“I’ve gotten a Yordano Ventura comp on Cease — undersized, hard-throwing righty with good curveball feel.”

“That’s pretty good,” Cease said with a nod of the head. “I mean, Yordano threw a little bit harder than me, but we both had lively arms.”

“He projects as a potential mid-rotation arm if the changeup and command improve, but he’s more likely to wind up in relief.”

“I do remember seeing that a lot as a young player, the bullpen aspect,” Cease recalled. “But yeah, pretty much it was, am I going to develop a third pitch, or get one or two pitches that are swing-and-miss, that can buy me multiple times through the order? I added a slider, which I didn’t have at that point. So I added my best pitch. I always had the velo, and if you have two good pitches you can kind of sprinkle in everything else and have them essentially play off each other. That’s worked out for me.”

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs authors Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens play “College Baseball Player or Musician Who’s Performing at Sea.Hear.Now 2025” (4:53), and then explain the third annual preseason predictions game (11:53) and make 10 bold predictions apiece (18:57) about baseball in 2025, to be voted on by listeners.

Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”
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As someone who runs a lot of projections, I’m used to being very wrong. Of the approximately 4,000 players projected every season, some 800 or so will fail to meet their 10th-percentile projection or exceed their 90th, meaning ZiPS, and by extension Dan Szymborski, will be/look horribly wrong. There’s still time before the start of the regular season to put myself into even greater jeopardy, meaning it’s time for my annual list of favorite booms and busts. The concept for these is simple, in that these are my picks for players to change how they are currently perceived. Sometimes it’s because of a projection, sometimes because of a hunch, a gut feeling, or just something I think projections might not be capturing. Since we’re going on a limb here, there will be some epic failures, and maybe [prayer emoji] even a success or two.

As usual, let’s start with a quick review of last year’s picks. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the opening series of the regular season in Japan, then (10:55) discuss the removal (and eventual restoration) of a page about Jackie Robinson on the Department of Defense website, before (39:53) bantering further about breakouts, how player heights dropped (or didn’t!) after players were measured more accurately this spring, Joey Gallo’s attempted conversion to pitching, and an abandoned Marlins player-development idea. Then (1:27:38) they talk to Pirates pitching phenom Paul Skenes about being a cover model for MLB The Show 25, his stoic exterior, starters as stars, an auction for his debut baseball card, his hobbies, his expanding pitch mix, and max-effort pitching.

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Last year’s edition of the center field Positional Power Rankings marked a changing of the guard. With Julio Rodríguez and the Mariners taking over the top spot, it was the first time since 2013 that the Mike Trout-led Angels did not lead the pack. The times have continued a-changin’, as Trout is no longer a center fielder and the assortment of ex-prospects the Angels are running out in his stead have sunk to 27th. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is no longer pushing the Yankees to the second spot, as the combination of Juan Soto’s crosstown move and Giancarlo Stanton’s elbow woes has freed the two-time MVP to return to right field, with occasional time at DH. Read the rest of this entry »

Who’s on third? For the Red Sox, the answer appears to be Alex Bregman. When the two-time All-Star and reigning AL Gold Glove third baseman signed with Boston last month, the move created controversy given the presence and the initial public reaction of Rafael Devers, a three-time All-Star and, because of his 10-year contract, the cornerstone of the franchise. These things have a way of working themselves out, however, and Bregman is now on track to handle the hot corner to start the season, with Devers serving as the designated hitter — a move that should strengthen the lineup and defense.

The 30-year-old Bregman agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox on February 12. When he signed, several outlets noted the likelihood, or at least the possibility, that he would switch from the position at which he’s spent most of his nine-year major league career, particularly as the Red Sox had already acknowledged the situation. When the team was courting Bregman in January, manager Alex Cora — who coached him in Houston — told NESN viewers of his previous experience with the infielder:

“Alex was a Gold Glover at third base. We all know that… But in 2017, I had a conversation with him and he needed to play third because it was [Carlos] Correa and [Jose] Altuve [at shortstop and second]. I always envisioned Alex as a Gold Glove second baseman. His size, the way he moves, it felt kind of like, ‘You will be a second baseman.’ But he has played third base at a high level. So we’ll see where he ends up and we’ll see where he ends up playing.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Left fielders have traditionally been boppers, with the likes of Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez — to name just two — populating the position over the past few decades. There have been Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner types as well, but by and large, big-time power guys have ruled the roost in the port-side corner. That hasn’t been the case of late. Last year, Yordan Alvarez and Teoscar Hernández were the only left fielders to top the 30 homer mark. Which isn’t to say the Crawfords and Gardeners have completely taken over. It’s more that the inhabitants of left field feature a mix of styles, with some possessing more multi-faceted skill sets than others. Read the rest of this entry »