Where Nomar Mazara Seems to Have Improved

It feels like the Rangers have been playing out the string since somewhere around the fourth inning of Opening Day, even before injuries knocked Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Delino DeShields Jr., and Rougned Odor out of the lineup. But just because they’re already nine games below .500 (15-24) and no threat to contend for a playoff spot doesn’t mean they don’t mandate some attention. Beltre, who’s back in the lineup, is an all-time great, Joey Gallo is a fascinating player, Bartolo Colon is the eighth wonder of the world, and if you don’t want to see what Jurickson Profar can do with regular playing time after so many setbacks, you must be some kind of monster. Right now, though, the Ranger to watch is Nomar Mazara.

The 23-year-old Mazara has been on some kind of tear lately. Over his past nine games, he’s hit seven homers, including two against the Tigers on Wednesday. In the seventh inning, he tied the game with a solo homer off Daniel Stumpf, and in the 10th inning, he won it with a walk-off shot off of Warwick Saupold. Get outta here:

That second shot, a scorcher down the right-field line, had an exit velocity of 117.1 mph. Coming into Wednesday, there had been just five homers of 117.0 or more, two by Giancarlo Stanton and one apiece by Marcell Ozuna, Hanley Ramirez, and Kyle Schwarber. Hours after Mazara joined the club, so did Aaron Judge — the owner of seven such shots last year, including a season-high 121.1-mph homer on June 10 — via a laser into Yankee Stadium’s Monument Park. Anyway, it’s a cool group to be part of.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen & Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/10/18

2:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from a Morristown, NJ Starbucks where I’ve stopped on the way to see Lenny Torres (which I’m growing worried is going to be rained out).

2:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley will be joining momentarily, but I’m gonna get rolling now as I will probably hve to bounce sooner than Kiley to get to the game.

2:02

Paul: Wasn’t there a new mock promised at some point soon?!

2:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Early next week after I’ve seen who’s at the games I’m seeing this weekend and we make some more cals.

2:03

Kiley McDaniel: And I just got home to Orlando where I’m scrambling to run errands and settle in for some serious content putout (and also UCF/Oklahoma this weekend)

2:03

Dave: Any chance the Braves go with Kelenic at 8?

Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/10/18

12:02
Jay Jaffe: Good morning or afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. If you saw the subtitle of this week’s chat, you’ll understand that I’m in mourning for the impending loss of my favorite neighborhood restaurant — the default place where my wife and I take family and friends who trek to our corner of Brooklyn for a casual night out. https://ny.eater.com/2018/5/9/17336048/ganso-ramen-closing-downtown-br…

The moral of the story is, hug your favorite neighborhood restaurant, because one day it won’t be there no matter how often you go.

12:03
THE Average Sports Fan: What is your take on the Harvey-Mesoraco swap?

12:05
Jay Jaffe: 1. “Be careful what you wish for, Matt Harvey.” While he was within his rights to reject the Triple A assignment, he’s now about to toil in a place that’s much rougher for pitchers, particularly ones with gopher problems, and he won’t be anywhere close to the postseason.

2. A fair trade of damaged goods for both sides.

12:05
Mike: My yankees are on a tear right now, and most of that relates to what I thought was our greatest need. Pitching. What does German look like as a starter going forward? and how sustainable is CC’s FIP defying heroics?

12:08
Jay Jaffe: Travis Sawchik took a good look at German a couple days ago. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/domingo-german-demands-our-attention/ Obviously, Sunday’s six no-hit innings was a promising development, and he does seem to have a mix that should help him survive as a starter. As for CC, he’s not gonna keep up a sub-2.00 ERA but he’s still a very useful starter. After this chat I’m heading up to Yankee Stadium for tonight’s outing against the Red Sox and planning to write about him unless something bigger happens.

12:09
Hard hit rate: It seems like a number of players who are sporting career-best or near career-best hard hit rates are struggling. Marcell Ozuna, and the Santanas, Carlos and Domingo, come to mind. Do you have any ideas for why that is the case?

Read the rest of this entry »


Roberto Osuna, the Blue Jays, and the Limits of Presuming Innocence

The Toronto Blue Jays managed the singular feat Tuesday of being no-hit and having that no-hitter register as only the second-worst news of the day. Whenever that happens, you know you’re having a very bad day.

Per ESPN:

All-Star closer Roberto Osuna of the Toronto Blue Jays was charged with assault Tuesday and put on administrative leave by Major League Baseball, preventing him from playing for at least a week.

Osuna assaulted a woman, according to Toronto police.

Now, obviously there’s a lot to unpack here, and we don’t have all of the facts. In fact, at this point all we know is that Osuna was arrested for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend, then released. Multiple sources have confirmed that the incident in question was indeed one of domestic violence. But the Blue Jays had what might be considered an interesting response to the allegations.

“We are taking the matter extremely seriously, as the type of conduct associated with this incident is not reflective of our values as an organisation,” the team said.

Osuna has been placed on administrative leave per Article II of the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy in the CBA, a move the team says it “fully supports.”

Let’s start with the Blue Jays’ statement. As a lawyer, among the first things one learns is that words matter, and what struck me about that statement is what was missing from it. Nowhere in that statement is there any qualification, like the words “allegedly” or “if true.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Here Are Baseball’s Most-Changed Hitters

The other day, I wrote about Corey Dickerson, and how, since he’s joined the Pirates, he’s all but stopped striking out. I went through and tried to identify changes he’s made. This has become a fairly routine writing process, looking at changes in the numbers and then going to the video. I realize I write more about players who are becoming good, or who are becoming bad, than I do about players who are still good, or who are still bad. Players who stay the same are old news. I’m biased to look for players doing something different, and in that regard I’m not alone.

Players who change are interesting. Players who don’t change are interesting, too, but those players are just out there, acknowledged and understood. When players start making adjustments, or when opponents start making adjustments to them, it’s like you’ve got a mystery box, and you just want to know what’s in it. What is the new player going to be? Has he become truly better, or truly worse? Players become moving targets, and if nothing else, we can stand to learn from whatever happens.

I guess I don’t need to justify this. I think many of us are in the same boat. We want to know who’s changing, and how. I’ve run some math. This post will have a big table in it.

Read the rest of this entry »


Our Playoff Odds Have Win Distributions Now

Much like the update last month, nothing in how we calculate our playoff odds has changed, but we’ve added a new feature to the page. We are now reporting the distribution of wins from the Monte Carlo simulation.

Specifically:

  • The 25th percentile;
  • The 75th percentile; and
  • A histogram of projected wins.*

*The average is already reported as expected wins.

You can find this if you select the new display option in the dropdown of the same name.

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cubs Player Development Analyst

Position: Analyst, Player Development

Location: Chicago, IL

Description:
The Chicago Cubs are seeking an analyst to join the Research and Development group in Baseball Operations. This role will focus on the management and analysis of data gathered on players in the Chicago Cubs minor league system and will work closely with the both the Player Development and R&D departments. Succesful candidates will bring a background in analytics, a strong interest in evidence-based coaching and development, and the communication skills to work effectively with player development personnel to apply analytics and improve the effective understanding of data to optimize prospect performance and progression.

Responsibilities:

  • Research, develop and test methods and models for the purpose of player assessment and developmentIdentify technologies, analyze data and translate into tangible coaching and skill development objectives.
  • Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization methods to disseminate insights to members of baseball operations and player development personnel.
  • Handle analysis requests from and conduct studies to support player development personnel, coaches, and players.
  • Conduct in-depth evaluations of Cubs prospects.
  • As needed, travel to minor league affiliates to support player development initiatives.
  • Identify, diagnose and resolve data quality issues.
  • Examine and implement sports science technologies that may offer innovative data solutions.

Required Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree in an quantitative field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, operations research.
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills
  • Proficiency with SQL
  • Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics
  • Experience with programming languages (e.g., C, Python or R)
  • Experience or strong interest in using baseball data to support coaching or skill development

The Chicago Cubs are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

To Apply:
Please visit this site to apply.


Effectively Wild Episode 1214: The Three-Time Tommy John

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter (and answer listener emails) about podcast personas, Dylan Bundy’s bad day, players’ favorite stats and a Joc Pederson conundrum, James Paxton and the recent rash of near-no-hitters, how scoring has bounced back from its slow start, the Reds’ and Mets’ Matt Harvey trade, the Robinson Cano contract so far, and things about baseball that are harder than they look, plus a Stat Blast about switch hitters. Then they talk to 33-year-old Rays reliever Jonny Venters (46:10) about his incredible comeback from repeated Tommy John surgeries, how the game changed while he was rehabbing, his heavy workloads, his record groundball rate, the mental toll of trying to return, why he stuck with Tampa Bay, and more.

Audio intro: The Band, "Knockin’ Lost John"
Audio interstitial: John Lennon, "Dear John"
Audio outro: Men at Work, "Be Good Johnny"

Link to Anthony Castrovince’s stats article
Link to Tim Lincecum glove video
Link to Ben’s near-no-hitters article
Link to Jeff’s Shohei Ohtani pitching post
Link to Jay Jaffe’s post on the three-time Tommy John club

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Does Any Team Want to Win the AL Central?

In the annals of modern baseball history, we’ve seen some pretty bad teams win division titles, with the 1973 Mets and 2005 Padres claiming flags with just 82 wins apiece. If there was a silver lining to the 1994 strike, it’s that it spared us the possibility of a sub-.500 team making the playoffs, as the 52-62 Rangers were the best of the AL Worst, er, West. Which brings us to today’s AL Central. With the Indians (17-18) having lost four in a row and eight out of 11, the division lacks a single team playing .500 ball. Cleveland nonetheless leads the pack, and the division as a whole has a collective 68-102 record and a .400 winning percentage, the worst in the majors.

To be fair, the AL Central did project to be the majors’ worst. Via our preseason Playoff Odds page, here are the aggregated projected standings for the six divisions:

Aggregated 2018 Preseason Projected Standings
Division W L Win%
AL East 422 388 .521
AL West 416 394 .513
NL Central 410 400 .506
NL West 407 403 .502
NL East 390 420 .481
AL Central 385 425 .476

And here’s how the divisions sat as of Wednesday morning:

Aggregated 2018 Standings
Division W L Win% Run Dif
AL West 96 85 .530 36
AL East 92 82 .529 57
NL East 91 84 .520 29
NL West 92 87 .514 -21
NL Central 88 87 .503 23
AL Central 68 102 .400 -124
Through close of play on Tuesday, May 8

The AL Central has become MLB’s black hole, sucking losses into its gravitational field. Currently, it’s the only division collectively below .500 (the NL Central has rallied over the past few days), and there’s now a 103-point difference in winning percentage separating them from the worst of the other five divisions. Coincidentally, their collective run differential is 103 runs worse than any other division’s as well.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Bad Day at Work

Many of us have jobs. All of us have lives. And one thing that’s true about any job, or about any life, is that sometimes you wake up in the morning and you just don’t have it. Maybe you’re groggy, maybe you’re irritable, maybe you’ve got brain fog, maybe you have a headache. For whatever reason, there are simply bad days, and they can happen at random. They can come right after normal days, and they can come right after great ones. It’s all part of the experience of existence. You learn not to let the bad days define you.

Many of us have jobs, and all of us have lives, but few of us are performers. The average employee, when necessary, can hide herself or put forth a reduced effort. You can make yourself scarce, or even call in sick. If you’re just having a regular weekend day in the dumps, you can choose to stay in, to not engage with the world. Everyone has the right to bad days, and most people have the flexibility to more or less live their bad days in private. Other people don’t have to know when you’re off.

Performers, entertainers, have no such luxury. The responsibility is to perform for an audience, an audience that will quickly realize if something’s not right. The pressure to do well is ever-present, because, one way or another, you’re going to have to do something, and the people will judge you if what you do isn’t good. The stakes can be frightening, even paralyzing, because there’s no option to hide when you’re a performer. A performer like Dylan Bundy.

Read the rest of this entry »