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Since the Orioles started listening to offers for Manny Machado, people have been trying to find the best trade partner for Baltimore to match up with. Unfortunately for Dan Duquette, the list of teams that have a glaring need at either SS or 3B and are in position to pay what it will take to land a one-year rental is pretty short. Teams like the Astros, Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox, and Cubs are pretty well set on the left side of the infield. Peter Angelos doesn’t want Machado on the Yankees. The Phillies make sense as a bidder for Machado next year, but not really this year.

That has led to a situation where teams like the White Sox and Diamondbacks are being mentioned as leading suitors, even though they don’t really fit what we’d think a Machado buyer would look like. The Cubs and Red Sox have gotten some mentions, but deals with those teams don’t actually make all that much sense. Especially with the Orioles apparently looking for big-league ready pitching in exchange, finding a team that lines up with Baltimore on a trade for their franchise player isn’t particularly easy.

But there’s one team that has the assets Baltimore is looking for, the incentive to make a substantial upgrade in 2018, and a spot for Machado in their line-up. The team that should land Manny Machado? The Cleveland Indians.

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The New York Mets’ 2017 season was a disappointment. Coming off two playoff appearances, New York dropped to fourth in the National League East, losing 92 games and securing the sixth pick in next year’s draft.

To their credit, the team didn’t tolerate the status quo for long, moving Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Addison Reed, and Neil Walker in various deals. Add to that the departure of Jose Reyes via free agency and gone are five of the eight starters — plus the closer — from Opening Day of 2017.

Despite those subtractions, the Mets still have the makings of a potential contender. As presently constructed, they’d probably have a shot at a Wild Card spot. They’re closer than one might think to the Washington Nationals, as well. They’ll actually have to make some moves and invest in the team to make those jumps, however.

Part of the reason the Mets still have a decent chance of success in 2018 is because they retained their three best players. Yoenis Cespedes managed only a half-season’s worth of games but recorded a 131 wRC+ and was on a three-win pace in the games he did manage to play. A full season of Cespedes would represent an instant improvement. Michael Conforto, meanwhile, also lost time to injury, a torn capsule in his left shoulder ultimately ending his breakout season. If he’s able to return within the first month of the season, say, he can anchor the middle of the Mets lineup. At catcher, Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki make for a solid duo. Asdrubal Cabrera is back, providing competent production for a low price.

The departures last season also made room for two of the Mets’ best prospects in Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith. Steamer and ZiPS differ on the present talent of these two players, the latter forecasting average or better production, the former calling for something less than that. Add in Juan Lagares’s return to center field as a starter, plus useful contributions from Brandon Nimmo and Wilmer Flores, and the Mets have a roughly average group of position players.

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We’ve been writing here — perhaps ad nauseum — about the changes the game is undergoing currently. The ball may be different, the launch angles may be changing, power is definitely up, and starting-pitcher innings are down. Are these fundamental changes, though? Is this a different game we’re watching than the ones our elders enjoyed? And if so, is it necessary to alter the way we think about building successful teams?

I thought it would be interesting, at last week’s Winter Meetings, to ask front-office members of all kinds if they thought the game had really changed. If so, I wondered, had these insiders changed the way they approach their jobs over the last few years? To get better answers, I asked most of these generous people to talk off the record — meaning, in some cases, I’m unable to reveal their particular roles.

These answers do run the gamut, and the sources are varied — from former players to former business-school graduates. In sum, the responses offer us a peek at a fundamental choice in front of every team-builder right now, the same choice, ironically, that players face every day — namely, is it time to adjust?

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About 13 months ago, just as everyone was preparing for Thanksgiving, the Mariners and Diamondbacks swung a borderline blockbuster. The big name going to Seattle was Jean Segura. The big name going to Arizona was Taijuan Walker. As the trade happened, both Dave and myself wrote about how, in the end, it could end up being the Mitch Haniger trade. All things considered, Haniger had a fairly successful 2017. There’s another player in there I’m starting to like, though, and, well, my apologies to Zac Curtis. It’s Ketel Marte. I’ve really come around on Ketel Marte.

Perhaps it’s my own fault for having underestimated his talent. In my defense, though, Marte was simply a much-improved player this past season. People have asked me several times in my chats who I think could be poised for a breakout 2018. As such, it’s long past time for me to explain why Marte has captured my attention. He could be part of the Diamondbacks core for a very long time.

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On Monday, the Red Sox agreed to terms with first baseman Mitch Moreland. It was meaningful news, for two reasons. One, this is the Red Sox we’re talking about, and it seems like everything the Red Sox do is always big news. But then, additionally, Moreland electing to re-sign would appear to take the Red Sox out of the running for free agent Eric Hosmer. And while I’m certainly not Hosmer’s agent, the market for his services apparently isn’t large.

It could get larger. Scott Boras will work hard to make it larger. It’s possible to see a team like, say, the Mets throwing their hat in the ring. Yet the Red Sox move increases the chances that Hosmer will stay in Kansas City. It also increases the chances that Hosmer will go to San Diego. The Padres, so far, have been the most closely-linked suitor. They seem deeply motivated to turn Hosmer into a part of their core. The Padres haven’t won more than 77 games since 2011.

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As Craig Edwards noted closer to the start of this offseason, the Phillies have a lot of money to spend. Edwards estimated that Philadelphia entered the winter with approximately $70 million in payroll space, trailing only a rebuilding Tigers club that is unlikely to invest as much in its major-league roster as in recent years. While the Phillies have also been in a rebuilding period in recent years, they believe they are on the ascent.

Earlier this offseason, I attempted to better understand when the Phillies might begin to spend and what type of spending might make sense in free agency for the club. While the Phillies are likely to keep significant spending power in reserve until next offseason to court the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, I thought some buying might make sense this offseason. Namely, this author thought it would behoove the club to target either some of the top free agents under 30 years old (like Tyler Chatwood, for example) and/or to explore two-year deals for talented arms like Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly — that is, pitchers coming off injury who wouldn’t benefit the club much in 2018 but could provide returns in 2019.

I closed with this:

The Phillies likely have their eye on spending next offseason, but there could be some opportunity this winter, too, for a team with about as much spending power as any club. At some point, they’ll need to use it.

Indeed, Philadelphia has started to use it considerable payroll space. They’ve just done it in a curious way.

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Episode 791
Both the guest and host on this edition of FanGraphs Audio attended last week’s Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida. What this episode does is mostly address the biggest deals from that strange event and also other matters, as well.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min play time.)

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One of the changes to the most recent edition of the collective bargaining agreement between owners and players was the addition of a surcharge — a fancy way of referring to a second tax — to be levied upon those teams whose payrolls exceed the tax threshold by a certain amount. Specifically, teams that exceed the $197 million mark by $20-$40 million this season will be assessed a 12% surcharge. Clubs exceeding the threshold by $40 million or more, meanwhile, receive a 42.5% to 45.0% surcharge, depending upon whether a club is a multi-year taxpayer.

The surcharges occur on top of the luxury tax: 20% for a first-time payer, 30% for a second-time payer, and 50% for a third-time or greater offender.

Baseball essentially instituted a “soft” salary cap with the addition of the luxury tax, a vehicle adopted to curb spending at the top end of team payrolls, to protect owners from themselves. However, as I determined just before the Winter Meetings, that cap is becoming less soft and more rigid.

Baseball’s salary tax more and more resembles the NBA’s soft cap.

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