Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/1/17

12:02
Dave Cameron: Happy Game 7 Day everyone!

12:02
Dave Cameron: Should be a fun night.

12:02
Dave Cameron: I’m on live blog duty tonight, so come back and join me as we watch two great teams fight it out for the title tonight.

12:03
Dave Cameron: We’ll start this chat in a few minutes.

12:05
Charlie Morton: When am I pitching tonight?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Let’s say McCullers goes 4-5. Keuchel is probably first guy out of the pen, and he’s probably good for 2. That leaves 2-3 innings for some combo of Morton, Peacock, and Verlander, my guess. Peacock is probably the “closer”, so maybe Morton gets the 7th?

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 10 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents — once again, most all of them starting pitchers.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Jake Arrieta / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Andrew Cashner / Jhoulys Chacin / Alex Cobb / Bartolo Colon / Zack Cozart / Johnny Cueto / Yu Darvish / Lucas Duda / Jarrod Dyson / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Doug Fister / Todd Frazier / Jaime Garcia / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Jonathan Lucroy / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Jose Reyes / Carlos Santana / Justin Upton / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

***

Miguel Gonzalez (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Gonzalez:

  • Has averaged 145 IP and 1.5 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.9 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.4 WAR in 156.0 IP in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 1.1 WAR per 180 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-34 season.
  • Made $5.9M in 2017 after avoiding arbitration in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Gonzalez.

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Did Justin Verlander Find a New Pitch?

Justin Verlander threw an epic game in his final 2017 outing. It just wasn’t enough to bring home the hardware for the Astros. It’s wasn’t for lack of trying: he averaged over 96 mph on the 60 fastballs he threw, struck out nine, and didn’t walk a batter. He even broke out a surprise for the Dodgers, something that left many of them shaking their heads after the game.

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The Early At-Bat That Changed the Whole Game

The biggest at-bat of Game 6 was when Chris Taylor doubled. Whether it was a good pitch or not, whether it was a good swing or not, Taylor made contact and the ball found the grass, and the Dodgers evened the score. Just as importantly, they moved runners to second and third with nobody out, and, that quickly, the home team became the obvious favorite. The Dodgers’ chance of winning increased about 24 percentage points. Corey Seager followed with a sacrifice fly, and the lead was never surrendered. The game flipped in the sixth. That fast, the Astros were forced to prepare for Game 7.

At the end of the day, you need to score to win. Justin Verlander blanked the Dodgers through five, and, for a time, it looked like it might not even matter if the Astros added on. Perhaps George Springer’s home run would be enough. But, to me, there was a turning point, before the major turning point. Going into the bottom of the sixth, the Dodgers were still down 1-0. Yet it could’ve been an awful lot worse. But for the sequence in the top of the fifth.

As Rich Hill started the inning, Brian McCann ripped a single, and Marwin Gonzalez ripped a double. Josh Reddick dug in with two runners to score, and there were all of the outs to play with. Reddick was in position to provide some insurance. Then Hill started him off with three balls.

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2017 World Series Game 6 Live Blog

5:05

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

5:05

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to 2017 World Series Game 6 Live Blog

5:05

AdamZ: Happy Halloween!

5:05

Hannah Hochevar: Happy Halloween!

5:06

Jeff Sullivan: Happy Halloween. I just remembered to turn our porch light off so nobody tries to interrupt my World Series viewing with handout requests

5:06

botchatheny: this is gonna be a real corker eh

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Justin Verlander: Hall of Famer?

If you tune into the World Series tonight, chances are pretty good that you’ll be able to watch at least one future Hall of Famer — and likely, even, that you’ll see several.

Of the participants in this year’s Series, Clayton Kershaw is already a lock. Both Carlos Beltran and Chase Utley are in the twilight of their careers but have strong cases for inclusion without doing any more work. Among younger players, Jose Altuve is already off to a great start, and early-20-somethings Carlos Correa and Corey Seager have certainly made their mark.

Meanwhile, there’s one player expected to appear in tonight’s game who occupies an in-between category. On the one hand, he hasn’t yet established unassailable Hall of Fame credentials and is past his peak. On the other, he seems poised to compile a few more reasonably productive years. Justin Verlander has a decent case for the Hall right now, but the next few seasons will determine how persuasive his case ultimately is.

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One Complication for the Slicker-Ball Theory

The thing about the slick-baseball theory is it’s so easy to believe. To review, as quickly as possible: Pitchers believe the World Series baseball is different. Like, the actual baseball itself. They suspected it was kind of different earlier in the playoffs, but now they think it’s more different. It’s different by feeling more slick, more slippery. You can imagine how that could pose a problem. What are pitchers to do if they’re not accustomed to their instrument?

So the idea goes, it’s had a profound effect on sliders in particular. Anecdotally, you can get behind it, because we’ve seen some sliders get hit hard. But the other evidence is even more compelling. There’s the blindfold test. There are pictures. And, simply, there are the pitchers, speaking their minds. Experienced pitchers, who you’d think would know what a baseball feels like more than anyone. This is more than just one or two guys. Tom Verducci spoke to players and coaches from both the Astros and the Dodgers. Why would you doubt what the pitchers have to say? Why would they just make this up?

I don’t think they are making it up. I think pitchers do have a certain sense for things. I’d just like to present a graph.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 9 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them starting pitchers, probably.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Jake Arrieta / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Andrew Cashner / Jhoulys Chacin / Alex Cobb / Zack Cozart / Jarrod Dyson / Lucas Duda / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Todd Frazier / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Jonathan Lucroy / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Jose Reyes / Carlos Santana / Justin Upton / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

***

Bartolo Colon (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Colon:

  • Has averaged 176 IP and 2.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.0 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.6 WAR in 143.0 IP in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 1.5 WAR per 180 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-∞ season.
  • Made ca. $12.5M in 2017 as part of deal signed in November 2016.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Colon.

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The Dodgers Should Use Yu Darvish Tonight

Tonight, the Astros try to become World Series champions, while the Dodgers attempt to give us one more day of baseball this year. The Astros plan seems pretty straightforward: Justin Verlander will pitch until he can’t anymore, and then, depending on the score, they’ll either go with Lance McCullers (if it’s close) or some combination of the few remaining relievers A.J. Hinch trusts (if it’s a blowout). The Dodgers don’t have Justin Verlander, though, so things are going to be a little more complicated for Dave Roberts.

Rich Hill is a quality pitcher, but so far, the usage plan for him this postseason has been obvious: twice through the line-up and then he comes out. That is almost certainly going to change tonight, as Roberts would either have to continue to wear out Brandon Morrow, Kenta Maeda, and Kenley Jansen — leaving them less effective for another must-win tomorrow — or get some innings from some of the bullpen guys he hasn’t trusted in this series.

But unfortunately for Roberts, the next arms down the depth chart are left-handers Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani. Having a couple of southpaws ready to replace the left-handed Rich Hill isn’t all that helpful, especially since the Astros’ top of the order are all right-handed. And the throw-day starter who is available to help out tonight is Alex Wood, also left-handed. Tonight, Roberts’ has all the fresh left-handers he needs, but he’s running low on right-handed pitchers he can use to go after George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa.

So, perhaps instead of holding Yu Darvish to start Game 7 tomorrow, the Dodgers should take a page out of A.J. Hinch’s playbook and try to tandem-start tonight’s game, with Darvish ready to replace Hill for the second half of the game.

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Eric Longenhagen Spooky Prospects Chat

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, folks. Lots to squeeze in on my end today (I think I get Taylor Hearn and Tyler Beede in Scottsdale today) so we’ll probably hold tight to an hour. Let’s begin

12:19
Philip: Do you prefer austin Allen to Josh Naylor?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Nope

12:19
Evan Longoria : Do you know much about Ronaldo Hernandez?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Strong 19-year old Colombian catcher in Tampa’s system. Has power, catching is a work-in-progress but that’s fine because he’s a converted infielder. He made Rays list last offseason.

12:21
Chris: How good will Florial, Abreu, and Estrada be?

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