When you write about sabermetrics, the word jump is your best friend. There are only so many ways to explain that a number got bigger from one period of time to the next, and the word increase carries a vanishingly small amount of sex appeal. On the other hand, jump is an action verb that can lend some verve to, say, a dry passage about Jurickson Profar’s expected weighted on-base average, just to pick one completely random example off the top of my head:

Today is the rare day when we actually get to use the word jump to talk about a jump, because on Tuesday, when Rangers third baseman Josh Smith hit a towering chopper to first base, he didn’t just jump — he jumped.

In the bottom of the eighth, Yankees pitcher Tommy Kahnle dotted a changeup on the corner of the zone, and Smith rolled over it with an awkward swing that sent the ball right into the ground. It bounced up toward the roof and came down headed almost directly for the bag, where the waiting DJ LeMahieu lost it in the lights. The ball hit him in the glove, then bounced right into the base path, whereupon both Smith and Kahnle, who had heretofore been drifting nonchalantly toward the base, instantly shifted into top gear. Kahnle made a sliding play to barehand the ball, but the slide took him into the basepath. In a daring display of both initiative and inertia, Smith managed to hurdle the turtling pitcher and step on the base without breaking stride:

It was a remarkable play, and after my eighth or ninth viewing, I started to notice the little things. Actually, that’s not true. First, I noticed one extremely big thing. Check out Josh Smith’s quadriceps muscle:

Good Lord. That quad needs its own post office. The next time somebody tells you that all baseball players are slow and out of shape, show them this picture and take a few steps back so that they have space to react. No wonder Smith was able to leap over Kahnle without breaking stride. I’m surprised he came back down to earth.

The biggest thing I noticed, though, was how differently the players on the field reacted based on their proximity to the play. Perspective changes everything, and the closer a player was to the play, the more concern they exhibited. I’ll show you what I mean. Here’s Kahnle’s body language in the split second when Smith was right over his head:

This is what fear looks like. Less than a second ago, this extremely muscly man was going all out for a baseball. Now he’s trying to set the world record for fastest assumption of the fetal position. No pitcher has ever been so thoroughly posterized. Smith is literally making the Jumpman logo on top of Kahnle’s head. Kids all over the country should be hanging this on their bedroom doors:

Speaking as someone who has taken the business end of a baseball cleat to the face before, I’m not trying to make fun of Kahnle’s reaction. When you find yourself helpless on the ground beneath a stampeding Josh Smith, cowering in fear is the appropriate course of action.

That was the person at the epicenter. Now let’s take one step back. Here’s the next-closest person to the play, DJ LeMahieu. He wasn’t in as much immediate danger as Kahnle. As such, he never quite looked like he was fearing for his life, but the first baseman went on his own roller coaster ride, and it’s fun to watch the video both forwards and backwards. That way, you can watch LeMahieu go back and forth between concern for his teammate’s safety and concern for his own:

You don’t have to be an awkward person to spend an inordinate amount of time wondering what your hands should be doing, but I’m pretty sure that you can’t be officially recognized as awkward without spending an inordinate amount of time wondering what your hands should be doing. Those of us in the club will recognize that LeMahieu is putting on a master class of manual expression. First, he reacts to his error by bringing his hands to his chest, a move so classic that it’s literally the defining gesture of the guilt-ridden Reverend Arthur Dimmesdale in The Scarlet Letter. Next, he reacts to Kahnle’s close call by reaching toward him. It’s what you do when you want to help, but you’re too far away to actually do anything. I personally find myself doing it from across the room any time my tiny nephew wobbles down the stairs without any regard for his own life. Lastly, if you slow the video to just the right speed, there’s a moment where it looks like LeMahieu is afraid that Smith is going to land directly on top of him, and he raises his hands as if to catch the plummeting third baseman. With nothing more than a first baseman’s mitt and one free hand, LeMahieu tells a compelling tale.

But travel just a few yards farther away and the play carried much less immediacy. Over at second base, Gleyber Torres crept toward first base, but he didn’t seem particularly concerned. Maybe it didn’t look quite as scary from his angle, or maybe he just had more pressing matters to attend to:

You know what? That’s a fun shot, what with Kahnle all blurred from the do or die dive and LeMahieu oozing concern, but let’s actually zoom in a little closer so we get a better look at Torres:

Yeah, that’s much better. Torres was definitely paying attention to the play, but he wasn’t so locked in that he couldn’t do a little multitasking. What makes this shot even better is that at the moment it appeared on the Rangers broadcast, color commentator Dave Valle was in the middle of a sentence that went, “…does a pretty nice job of grabbing this barehanded.” No, I’m not making that up. I’ve zoomed in on Torres, but otherwise the clip below is completely unedited:

Indeed he does, Dave. Indeed he does. Torres is paying attention to the play, but he’s also far enough from the action that he doesn’t look particularly concerned and he isn’t willing to forego his own comfort. Let’s close out by checking in on the people farthest from the action. Here’s how the New York outfielders reacted as Kahnle was risking his life:

Sorry, did I say “reacted?” I meant to say “stood there like statues.” Not one of them moved a muscle. Based on their complete disinterest, I can only assume that if you’ve spent as much of your life in the outfield as Alex Verdugo, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto have, when you see a weakly hit ball to the infield, you instantly recognize it as a chance to take a 15-second standing nap and power down completely. This was a thrilling play, but all three of them look like they’ve been waiting in line at the post office for so long that when they finally get called up to the window, they’re not even going to remember why they were there in the first place.

Keep in mind that LeMahieu dropped this ball. Soto probably should have been backing up first base. Not only that, but this was an extremely dangerous play. Even if you assume that they don’t care at all about Tommy Kahnle as a human being, the guy has a 2.00 ERA over 42 appearances this season. He’s absolutely crucial to the team’s World Series hopes, and Smith came about eight inches from kicking his head clear off his body. Maybe it’s just because of how quickly the play developed, but not one of the Yankee outfielders was moved enough to so much as lean forward slightly.

Absence may make the heart grow fonder, but distance really does make everything seem smaller. If you’re LeMahieu, you’re terrified that Josh Smith and his gargantuan quads are about to grind your pitcher into a pulp right in front of your eyes. If you’re Aaron Judge all the way out in center field, that’s just a tiny problem for all those tiny people in the distance.

It’s the oldest story in baseball. The Braves took an athletic, hard-throwing, but undersized college pitcher named Spencer sometime after the first round of the draft. Even though said pitcher had done most of his collegiate work out of the bullpen, Atlanta stuck him in the rotation. And after only 20-odd starts in the minors, Spencer is in Atlanta’s major league rotation and a candidate to throw high-leverage innings — possibly even to start — in the playoffs.

OK, maybe it’s not the oldest story in baseball, but it’s happened twice now in the span of three seasons. And that’s where the paths of Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach diverge. Strider is what you’d get if a traditional power closer could throw 180 innings a year. (Well, if he could throw 180 innings in one year. We remember what happened a couple months ago.) It’s a hard fastball, and then a wicked slider. Pick one, because there’s no way for a hitter to cover both.

Schwellenbach also boasts mid-to-upper 90s fastball velocity, but unlike his teammate and fellow Spencer, he has one of the most varied repertoires in all of baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

The NFL season kicks off tonight, with another game tomorrow, 13 more on Sunday, and a Monday Night Football matchup set to cap off the Week One slate. Millions will be tuning in, although not everyone will be able to watch their favorite team (or keep close tabs on their fantasy football squad). Among those missing out will be the vast majority of big leaguers. At the same time that pigskin luminaries like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are performing on the gridiron, major leaguers will be plying their trade on the baseball diamond. When you’re a professional athlete, forgoing other pastimes — watching other sports is but one of many — comes with the territory.

What is it like to miss out on things you’d be enjoying were it not for your responsibilities as a ballplayer? I asked several big league players for their perspectives on that very subject. Here is what they had to say.

———

George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder: “I wouldn’t ever say ‘Why do I have to play today?’ but I love football. I’m a big football fan. When the NFL gets going, and college football gets going, it’s exciting for me. A lot of it is just a break from the constant everyday grind of baseball, having a chance to go to an NFL game, to a hockey game, to a concert. Anything like that. Read the rest of this entry »

By this time a year ago, the Yankees were simply playing out the string, battling to avoid their first losing season since 1992. Their September was briefly enlivened by the arrival of Jasson Domínguez, a switch-hitting 20-year-old center fielder who homered off Justin Verlander in his first plate appearance, but “The Martian” — so named for his otherworldly collection of tools — tore his right ulnar collateral ligament after playing just eight games. His Tommy John surgery and projected lack of availability early this season led the Yankees to trade for Alex Verdugo, whom they’ve stuck with as their everyday left fielder despite his increasingly conspicuous lack of production. As they run neck-and-neck with the Orioles in the AL East race, they’ve bypassed a golden opportunity to upgrade their lineup.

On Tuesday night in Arlington, the Yankees blew a 4-0 eighth-inning lead, losing 7-4 when closer Clay Holmes blew his major league-leading 11th save by retiring just one of the five batters he faced, capped by a walk-off grand slam by Wyatt Langford. The loss, the Yankees’ fifth in seven games, knocked them out of first place for the first time since August 20; at 80-59, they’re now half a game behind the Orioles (81-59). While the Holmes saga is a story for another day, it shares with the Verdugo/Domínguez situation the Yankees’ stubborn refusal to change what isn’t working in the midst of a playoff race, one where a first-round bye is at stake. In both cases — and in others throughout his seven-year tenure — manager Aaron Boone has publicly avoided acknowledging players’ struggles, sounding notes of Pollyanna-ish optimism that may have earned him loyalty within the Yankees’ clubhouse (and apparently the rest of the organization), but too often appear divorced from reality.

In the case of the offense, the Yankees lead the AL in scoring (5.09 runs per game) and wRC+ (118), but that’s largely a reflection of the incredible, historic contributions of the majors’ top two hitters by wRC+, namely Aaron Judge (.324/.457/.706, 217 wRC+) and Juan Soto (.291/.419/.582, 181 wRC+). Only three other regulars have a wRC+ of 100 or better: Austin Wells, who’s doing about 60% of the catching work; Giancarlo Stanton, who missed over five weeks in June and July due to a left hamstring strain; and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has played all of 25 games for the Yankees since being acquired on July 27. Besides Judge and Soto, their other three players with at least 561 plate appearances each have a wRC+ below 100, namely second baseman Gleyber Torres (96), shortstop Anthony Volpe (95 wRC+), and Verdugo (84 wRC+). Volpe’s defense is strong enough that he ranks third on the team with 3.6 WAR, Torres has hit for a 115 wRC+ in the second half, and Chisholm has shored up their once-dismal third base production, but first base has been an additional drag on the offense, with Anthony Rizzo, Ben Rice, DJ LeMahieu et al combining for just a 74 wRC+ and -1.3 WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

You might be a bit surprised to learn just how rare 3-0 counts are. As of Tuesday morning, there had been 155,045 plate appearances in the 2024 season, and just 5,852 of them, or 3.8%, had gone 3-0. That means that each team should expect to see a 3-0 count just 1.4 times per game. That’s a whole lot fewer than I expected. Because of that scarcity, if somebody comes to you with statistics about a batter’s splits in 3-0 counts, you can probably discount them as a small sample size aberration. That’s all the more true when you consider that, ignoring intentional walks, 3-0 counts turn into walks roughly 60% of the time (which in turns means that they account for roughly 29% of all walks). Once the batter gets ahead 3-0, there are very few actual at-bats taking place. So you don’t have to take this seriously if you don’t want to, but once he reaches a 3-0 count, Aaron Judge is putting together the greatest season in recorded history. I know that’s not exactly a shocking lede – Aaron Judge is good at something; film at eleven – but it’s fun, so hear me out.

In this case, recorded history starts in 1988. That’s the earliest year that Stathead lets you pull count-based splits. Those splits are slightly muddied by the fact that as far as Stathead is concerned, 3-0 counts include intentional walks. (That’s understandable, since until very recently, intentional walks still required pitchers to throw four actual balls. Still, it definitely skews the numbers; it doesn’t make a ton of sense to include PAs where the batter never saw a competitive pitch in count splits.) This season, Judge has been walked intentionally 18 times, but four of those passes only happened once the pitcher had fallen behind 3-0, so we’ll leave them and strip out the other 14.

That leaves Judge with 43 PAs that went to a 3-0 count, second in baseball behind Juan Soto, who has 54 (which also gives the Yankees far more 3-0 counts than any other team in baseball). In those PAs, Judge has walked 35 times, for a walk rate of 81.4%. That’s how terrifying Aaron Judge is: Even though he ranks second in this split by PAs, pitchers are so disinclined to throw him a strike that he’s tied for 75th in ABs. Read the rest of this entry »

Podcasts hosted by athletes — I don’t know about all that. But I did enjoy a recent clip from Mookie Betts’ podcast where he was talking to Cal Raleigh, who was comparing Zack Wheeler — perhaps the best pitcher in baseball — to his batterymate Bryan Woo.

“[Wheeler] is kind of like Woo,” Raleigh said. “He glides down the mound. And it’s so effortless. Some guys just have that natural glide down the mound, easy, and [the ball] just gets on you.”

Coincidentally, in a conversation in late August, Phillies minor league pitching coach Riley McCauley made the same comparison.

“[Woo] is very Wheeler-ish,” McCauley told me. Read the rest of this entry »

The English language is full to overflowing with sailing idioms: Obvious ones, like “even-keeled,” and others, like “three square meals,” that hide in plain sight. And there’s a good reason. Our language originates from a nation of sailors. England’s global empire was built on, and maintained by, the strength of its navy and commercial shipping industry — naturally the jargon of that foundational trade came to dominate the language.

Hundreds of years and a Revolutionary War later (up yours, Charles Lord Cornwallis!), we Americans have built a language on baseball. Three strikes and you’re out. Home run. At least three different pitch types — fastball, curveball, screwball — have distinct non-sporting connotations these days.

I barely remember a time before I knew the ins and outs of baseball, and I suspect that most of you, reading this specialized website for baseball enthusiasts, have similar experiences. But even Americans who are indifferent to or mostly ignorant of the national pastime tend to know the basics just by osmosis. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The long weekend gave me an opportunity to do a few things: (a) eat a whole bunch of food, (b) watch a whole bunch of baseball, and (c) take a look at the injured list and identify some players from around the league who ought to be helpful down the stretch or into the playoffs. Here are a few to keep an eye on.

The Dodgers Get Their Game 1 Starter (Hopefully)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman finally have their full supporting cast back, as Max Muncy, who missed three months due to an especially pesky oblique strain, rejoins a group headlined by Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith, and Gavin Lux.

But while the lineup has stabilized, the pitching remains far less settled, especially as we look ahead to how the Dodgers might construct a postseason rotation. Jack Flaherty is sure to be a member, and Gavin Stone is a strong option towards the back of a three- or four-man rotation. Beyond those two, however, things get pretty bleak. Walker Buehler‘s return from Tommy John surgery has been difficult. It would be unfathomable for him to be left off the playoff roster if he’s healthy, but the extent of his availability is unclear. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw’s first seven starts back from shoulder surgery were up and down, and now he’s back on the injured list with big toe inflammation related to a bone spur that he’s been dealing with for years. Even when he returns, Kershaw is entering the complementary phase of his career; he’s not enough on his own.

Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could certainly provide an impact in the playoffs, but Dave Roberts‘ latest update was uninspiring, at least as it pertains to Glasnow. Reading tea leaves, it sure looks as if Glasnow will once again fail to qualify for the ERA title, something he’s yet to accomplish in nine years in the majors. I can’t say for sure that his barking elbow is the cause, but he pitched to a 5.29 ERA in his last six starts before hitting the injured list for the second time this season.

Yamamoto sounds as if he’s closer to returning, and was probably having a better season than Glasnow in his first 14 major league starts anyway. His starts were often truncated, as he averaged just under 5.2 innings per start even when ignoring his one-inning outing in South Korea, but he also threw 100 pitches in each of his four starts prior to the two-inning outing before his trip to the IL. A true workhorse would benefit the Dodgers greatly in October, lessening the load for a bullpen that, no matter the personnel, always seems to be beleaguered come the playoffs.

It might be a little overdramatic to say that the Dodgers’ playoff hopes hinge on Glasnow and Yamamoto making an effective return, but at the same time, wouldn’t you much rather have Glasnow/Yamamoto/Flaherty/Kershaw as your playoff rotation than Flaherty/Kershaw/Stone/Buehler?

The Arizona Three

The Diamondbacks have continued to perform pretty well lately, with a series loss to the Dodgers over the long weekend halting a nice run during which they’d won seven of eight games and two-thirds of their 27 games in August.

That they won many of those games without Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Gabriel Moreno is all the more impressive, but that of course doesn’t mean that they haven’t missed those three. Josh Bell has performed well enough at the plate in Walker’s stead and rookie Adrian Del Castillo has done the same for Moreno, but Bell’s fielding is a big step down from Walker’s Gold Glove first base defense and Del Castillo has thrown out just one of 22 attempted base stealers. Marte, of course, has been the club’s best and most consistent performer all season, with his 150 wRC+ tying a career high and his 5.3 WAR buoyed by strong defense at the keystone.

Walker was reinstated from the IL on Tuesday, with Marte’s return a possibility on the team’s current road trip and Moreno expected to take a bit longer, though the team is optimistic he’ll be ready before the regular season ends.

But as one player comes back from the IL, another takes his place, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. laid up due to a calf strain; the hope is that it’ll only keep him out 10 days. That leaves Jorge Barrosa and Randal Grichuk to cover left field, with Bell now likely to get DH plate appearances against lefties while Joc Pederson sits.

Once Moreno is back, Del Castillo will, like Bell, transition to being a valuable bench bat. Bell’s value as a switch-hitter is especially useful to Torey Lovullo’s in-game strategy.

Baltimore’s Bevy of Bats

The Orioles won’t be getting much more help on the mound than they have already. Zach Eflin just returned from shoulder soreness and Grayson Rodriguez could return at some point, but Kyle Bradish, John Means, Félix Bautista, and Tyler Wells are all out for the season. The soon-to-return Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe are useful relief arms, but they aren’t a panacea to the club’s bullpen woes of late.

Fortunately, the Birds might just be able to outhit everybody once all their bats are healthy. Speedster Jorge Mateo is out for the rest of the season following elbow surgery, leaving Cedric Mullins and Gunnar Henderson as the team’s only big basestealing threats, but there really aren’t any other holes to poke in a full-strength O’s offense once Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías, and Heston Kjerstad come back. In fact, there might be too many options for 13 spots, not that that’s a bad thing.

Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Westburg, and Colton Cowser should be in the lineup every game during the playoffs, though Cowser could sit against a tough lefty. Backup catcher James McCann, righty masher Ryan O’Hearn, Mountcastle, and Mullins are sure to be on the roster no matter what, as manager Brandon Hyde can mix and match depending on the opposing starter. That leaves just four spots (unless they go with 14 hitters, which is plausible) for the still inconsistent Jackson Holliday, lefty-mashers Austin Slater and Eloy Jiménez, Kjerstad, and top prospect Coby Mayo, who’s yet to find his footing in the majors but very well could in the remaining weeks. These things often have a way of sorting themselves out, and the first order of business for Hyde is winning the AL East, with the extra September position player spot helpful in evaluating candidates for the playoff roster.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr., and quantifying power/speed excellence and the White Sox somehow playing way worse under Grady Sizemore, follow up on hippos, A-Rod’s relationships, double plates/bases, 40-something hitters, player predictions, and one-pitch first strikeouts, and react to a new kind of bases-loaded walk and private equity’s incursion into youth sports. Then (52:12) they talk to Matthew DeSantis and Ramon Riesgo of the Bhutan Baseball & Softball Association about the origins, development, and future of baseball in Bhutan and the Hudson Valley Renegades’ recent Bhutan Night.

Audio intro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”

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Link to country elevations
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When Michael King’s season got off to a slow start, it was pretty easy to find the things that were going wrong. The walks, the homers, the short outings: I wouldn’t blame an analyst for doubting him. Oh, wait, that was me doubting King? Well that’s awkward, because he’s been exceptional ever since. But for someone with King’s profile – a kitchen-sink arsenal without a clear standout pitch and a history of working in relief – disaster never feels far off. So today I thought I’d highlight all the stuff that hasn’t gone wrong, because seeing King pitch is a good reminder that sometimes life is all about minimizing your weaknesses.

The first thing that could have gone wrong was decreased fastball velocity. King averaged 95.1 mph on his four-seamer in starts last year, but he was down around 93 mph through a month of play this season. He’s sitting 94 mph since the start of June, though, and his results on that pitch have improved markedly. He’s doing the same thing with his sinker: adding velocity and getting better results. To be fair, the results have been much better on his sinker than his four-seamer, but in both cases, they’ve improved quite a bit since the beginning of the year, and the improvement is the key here.

Pitching off of those two fastballs is particularly important for King, because he struggled mightily with falling behind in the count earlier this year. That led to a predictable dance. King would attack the zone with fastballs to get back into the count, and he’d sometimes fly too close to the sun. Given that his four-seamer is still crushable and he doesn’t consistently locate his sinker for strikes, he was getting himself into a lot of trouble and spending too much effort digging out of holes. Read the rest of this entry »