Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Games of 8/9

Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago NL (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: HM  Top 100: NR
Line: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 9 K

Notes
Looking at his stuff in the absence of context, Mekkes is barely a middle-relief prospect. His fastball typically sits in the low 90s and his slider is solid average, perhaps a tick above. But Mekkes is a gargantuan 6-foot-7, takes a large stride toward the plate, and releases the ball much closer to the plate than the average pitcher, creating a Doug Fister-like effect that allows his stuff to play up. He has a 1.00 career ERA in pro ball and has allowed just 32 hits in 61 innings this year while striking out 80.

Like most XXL pitchers in their early 20s, Mekkes struggles with control, but hitters’ inability to adjust to his delivery in short stints has limited their overall ability to reach base. As a result, he has a WHIP under 1.00 despite an 11% walk rate. It’s hard to say how this rare type of deception will play in a big league, assuming upper-level hitters are still flummoxed by it as Mekkes moves on. Jordan Walden was dominant for a half decade with a similar type of deception but had much better stuff. Regardless, it’s worth noting that Chris Mitchell had flagged Mekkes as a noteworthy prospect before he was drafted.

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With Jay Bruce on his way to Cleveland, the Mets have called up Dominic Smith to play first base for the remainder of the year. The Mets took Smith with the 11th overall pick out of high school back in 2013. He was hitting a smooth .330/.386/.519 at Triple-A this year, although those numbers were certainly helped by the PCL and his home ballpark in Las Vegas.

When taken in the context of his league and ballpark, Smith’s .188 ISO isn’t all that impressive. And while he’s hit for a high average, it hasn’t been due to his making a lot of contact as evidenced by his 17% strikeout rate. Instead, he’s gotten there by way of a .380 BABIP. In sum, Smith is a first baseman with unremarkable power and contact skills. That isn’t to say Smith isn’t an interesting prospect. While his 2017 performance is suspect, his 2016 numbers were much more promising. He made a lot of contact in Double-A last year while also hitting for decent power in a non-PCL environment. It’s also important to remember that Smith just turned 22, making him quite young for Triple-A. And finally, both the metrics and lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen view Smith as an above-average defensive first baseman, which takes a bit of pressure off of his bat.

My KATOH system pegs Smith for 6.0 WAR over his first six seasons by the stats-only method and 5.6 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his No. 50 rank on Baseball America’s midseason list. Those marks place him 52nd and 68th, respectively, among prospects.

To put some faces to Smith’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Smith’s 2017 performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Smith is a good prospect, but it isn’t entirely clear that he’s ready for the show just yet. Despite his gaudy stat line, his performance has been more good than great after accounting for his environment. Steamer sees him as a 89 wRC+ hitter right now, which is awfully light for a first baseman. But seeing how the Mets aren’t competing this year, they have little to lose by giving Smith 50 games to show what he can do.

It’s been a rough season for the Phillies, whose record is the worst in baseball and sits comfortably below .400. They’ve trotted out quite a few bad players on a regular basis, including Tommy Joseph, who’s given them four months of disappointment at first base. While Joseph was turning in a 90 wRC+ with poor defense, Rhys Hoskins was annihilating Triple-A. Finally, the Phillies are giving him a whirl at the highest level.

Prior to his call-up, Hoskins hit an insane .284/.385/.581 across 475 Triple-A plate appearances. He belted 29 homers and simultaneously struck out less than 16% of the time. This performance didn’t come out of nowhere, either, as Hoskins slashed .281/.377/.566 and blasted 38 homers last season at Double-A. Those numbers were undoubtedly helped by his home ballpark in Reading, which led many to doubt their validity. But KATOH still loved him because the power numbers were so exceptional and they came packaged with acceptable strikeout rates.

My KATOH system pegs Hoskins for 10.0 WAR over his first six seasons by the stats-only method and 9.4 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his No. 69 rank on Baseball America’s midseason list. Those marks place him 14th and 27th, respectively, among prospects. 

Those WAR estimates don’t tell the whole story, however, as KATOH sees some serious star potential in Hoskins, giving him a roughly 1-in-5 chance of racking up over 20 wins over the next six years. For reference, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera and Freddie Freeman were the only first baseman who crossed that threshold in the six-year span that ended in 2016.

To put some faces to Hoskins’ statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Hoskins’ 2017 performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Hoskins is limited to first base, which obviously puts a lot of pressure on his hitting. Even if he’s an above-average defender there, as Clay Davenport’s numbers suggest he is, the offensive bar remains extremely high. This is why KATOH sees him as a No. 20-ish prospect, even though his offensive numbers are eons better than most of the hitters ranked ahead of him. Nonetheless, hitters who pair that type of power with good contact skills are quite rare. Throw in that he also draws walks, and Hoskins looks like he could be a pretty special hitter.