Reds fans, listen up. This isn’t so much a preview as it is a blueprint for how the Reds might upset the Dodgers – and let’s be real, it would be an upset, they’re the Dodgers. As for the Dodgers fans among you, don’t get too worked up. You’re surely reading this preview to figure out whether the Reds are going to upset the Dodgers, so this is just what you’re looking for too. And all you neutral fans? I’m pretty sure that if you’re reading this, it’s because you’re wondering whether the Reds can upset the Dodgers.

They can, obviously. It will just take a few carefully planned steps. Step one: get at least two great starts from your three starters. The Reds line up with Hunter Greene for Game 1, Nick Lodolo for Game 2, and Andrew Abbott for Game 3. Good starts in two of those games – say, two or fewer runs in six or more innings – will go along way towards keeping Cincinnati in range to strike. All three would be preferable, of course, but two feels like an absolute necessity given the uphill battle you’ll be reading about shortly.

Greene, of course, is the best chance for one of those aforementioned great starts. That’s just what he does now. He’s coming off a month of brilliance, and he shut down the Cubs’ sixth-ranked offense (110 aggregate wRC+) in a complete game shutout on September 18. The Dodgers’ second-ranked offense (113 aggregate wRC+) will be tougher to wrangle, but tougher is not the same as impossible or even improbable. If you made me pick one starter in all of baseball to win the next game, I’d pick… well, I’d pick Paul Skenes, and I’d probably go with Tarik Skubal next. But Greene would be in my top five, and so for our upset blueprint, let’s just count on him giving us a great game. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, you asked for more of the American League Central. Or at least, I assume you asked for more of the American League Central. Major League Baseball definitely thinks you want more of the American League Central; why else would the league schedule all three Wild Card games between the Tigers and the Guardians for 1:08 PM Eastern? That’s prime time (assuming you’re a middle schooler who’s home with strep throat). The only division without a 90-game winner is sending two teams to the playoffs, and the Guardians and Tigers will spend three days in Cleveland fighting over the honor of facing the Mariners in the ALDS. That may not be enough to dethrone the Red Sox and the Yankees in terms of scheduling, but it’s a repeat of last year’s thrilling ALDS matchup, which went the full five games and ended with the unlikeliest outcome of all: Tarik Skubal losing a game.

The two teams couldn’t be coming into the Wild Card round on more different trajectories. The Tigers ended their series quietly with a loss to the Red Sox on Sunday. That loss handed the division title to the Guardians, who went on to beat the Rangers with a walk-off homer in the 10th inning just for funsies:

At the All-Star break, the Tigers had the best record in baseball, while the Guardians ranked 22nd. Since the All-Star break, the Guardians have the best record in baseball; the Tigers rank 21st. I can keep going. Read the rest of this entry »

A Padres-Cubs NL Wild Card Series ought to delight people who are 10 to 15 years older than I am; the Cubs were actually San Diego’s first playoff opponent, all the way back in 1984. Neither of those teams had too much staying power, but surely you’ve heard about Rick Sutcliffe becoming the greatest midseason trade acquisition ever, or the Iron Claw-like litany of personal tragedies that befell members of that Padres team later on. Tony Gwynn led a late comeback off Sutcliffe in the decisive game, and the Padres won the first pennant in franchise history.

The winner of this series will have quite a bit more work to do before it can start thinking about a World Series berth. Both of these teams have been locked into Wild Card berths but locked out of a division title for quite some time, which means they’ve flown under the radar to some extent down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Narváez has far exceeded expectations this season. Acquired by the Red Sox from the Yankees last winter in exchange for 22-year-old pitching prospect Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Narváez went into spring training hoping to earn a job as Boston’s backup catcher. He did much more than that. The 26-year-old backstop went on to claim the starting job, and he heads into the final day of the regular season with 15 home runs and a 97 wRC+ over 446 plate appearances. A plus defender, Narváez has 12 defensive runs saved and 2.7 WAR.

Back in spring training, Alex Cora said something about the still-unproven — just six games of MLB experience — native of Maracay, Venezuela that caught my attention.

“He had a great offseason, playing in winter ball,” the Red Sox manager told a group of reporters, including yours truly. “Learned a lot about the offensive side of it. Very Gleyber-like as far as his swing. He can stay inside the ball and drive it.”

I stored away those quotes, thinking they might be worth revisiting if Narváez were to not only make the team, but also end up contributing with the bat. Six months later, I did just that. Reminding him of what he’d said in Fort Myers, I asked Cora if Narváez still has a Gleyber Torres-like swing. Read the rest of this entry »

There is still a lot to play for as we enter the final weekend of the regular season. How exciting! As I sit down to write this mailbag on Friday afternoon, two division races and three Wild Cards are still in play between the two leagues. In the American League, four teams are fighting for three spots, while three National League clubs are competing for the final spot in the senior circuit.

Of course, we’ll be watching more than just the standings over the next few days. Will Cal Raleigh get to 62 or 63 home runs this season? If he does, will it be enough for him to win the AL MVP award over Aaron Judge? Personally, I will be watching to see if Corbin Carroll hits three more triples. He enters Friday’s game with 17 on the season, and he already has more than 30 doubles, 30 home runs, and 30 stolen bases. My preseason bold prediction was that Carroll would become the fifth 20/20/20/20 player ever, and the first since Jimmy Rollins and Curtis Granderson both did it in 2007. Carroll probably won’t get there, but he’s close enough that I’ll be paying attention.

Before we get to this week’s mailbag, I have one quick programming note to mention. We’ll still be doing our weekly mailbag during the postseason, but we might move around the specific day it runs depending on the playoff schedule. Our plan is to do one before every postseason round, beginning with the Division Series. And as always, I’d like to remind all of you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers have muddled their way through September, winning just often enough to maintain a narrow lead over the Padres. It’s no mystery why the defending champions needed until Thursday to secure the NL West title or, for the first time since the new playoff structure was implemented, failed to secure a first-round bye. While their rotation has been stellar lately, their bullpen has been absolutely brutal. On Wednesday night at Chase Field, even as they flirted with losing in walk-off fashion for the second night in a row and the fifth time this month, they uncovered perhaps their best hope for a deep October run, as both Roki Sasaki and Clayton Kershaw turned in clean innings in their first relief appearances of the season. While there are some caveats to those performances — neither pitcher was facing Murderer’s Row, both allowed hard contact, and Sasaki benefited from a blown call on strike three — both appearances were eye-opening and offered cause for optimism.

Just the night before the two auditions, the Dodgers squandered Shohei Ohtani‘s season-high six scoreless innings and a 4-0 lead against the Diamondbacks when Jack Dreyer, Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia, and Tanner Scott combined to allow five runs over the final three innings. Scott started the ninth by hitting Ildemaro Vargas, then walking Tim Tawa; two batters later, the former scored the tying run on Jorge Barrosa‘s sacrifice fly and then the latter came home with the winning run on Geraldo Perdomo‘s single. It was the second time in three days the Dodgers had wasted a scoreless start of six innings or more; Emmet Sheehan’s seven innings of one-hit shutout work against the Giants on Sunday went for naught when Blake Treinen allowed three runs while retiring just two of seven hitters in the eighth. That loss made Treinen the first pitcher since at least 1912 to wear five of his team’s losses in a row, according to MLB.com’s Mike Petriello. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

“Nobody believes in us!” is usually the cheapest heat in sports. I hate it. It fosters a base, provincial mindset among fans and players alike. It turns the joy of competition and success into hostility at a perceived (frequently imagined) slight. I’m just gonna come out and say it: If you need “the haters” to motivate you, you’re a small-minded person! If I never heard “nobody believes in us” again, I’d be a happy man.

Fortunately, I don’t have to hear it as much these days, because the 2019 Patriots — a year removed from their sixth Super Bowl win and ninth appearance in the Brady-Belichick era — rolled out the line and got laughed at. There’s a difference between “nobody believes in us” and “nobody likes us,” and the Patriots found out the hard way. They haven’t won a playoff game since.

Even though “nobody believes in us” is unimaginative, and usually untrue, and hackneyed into utter meaninglessness, I want to extend a waiver to the 2025 Cleveland Guardians. I’ll put my hands up; I didn’t believe in you. Read the rest of this entry »