Travis Bazzana, the no. 2 draft prospect on The Board at the moment, had a big day Sunday against Oklahoma State. In four at-bats, the Oregon State second baseman hit four balls 108 mph or harder, coming away with a double and two home runs for his trouble. The first of those home runs was crushed so hard that the outfielders didn’t bother chasing it — one of baseball’s great subtle aesthetic signifiers. More than that, the DJ at Globe Life Field was able to spin up the theme from The Natural before the ball even landed:

And now Travis Bazzana gets in on the action!https://t.co/a1pkN1nG65#GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/SOlYsavVyZ

— Oregon State Baseball (@BeaverBaseball) February 25, 2024

That’s how you know it’s gone. Read the rest of this entry »

To understand why Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday is the no. 1 prospect on our Top 100 list, look no further than Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin’s writeup of the 20-year-old phenom. They describe Holliday, the first overall pick in the 2022 draft, as “a sweet-swinging shortstop with above-average feel for contact and burgeoning power,” and close their evaluation by predicting that he “is very likely to become a 5-WAR shortstop who does everything well.” He has been spending time at second base this spring, because the O’s already have last year’s no. 1 overall prospect Gunnar Henderson at shortstop, but either way, stardom is seemingly in Holliday’s future.

That the promising youngster is the son of former big league slugger Matt Holliday is well known. It is also a primary factor in his advanced approach to hitting, as well as his overall understanding of his craft. Last season, which he began in Low-A and ended in Triple-A, the lefty-hitting Holliday produced a .323/.442/.499 slash line and 159 wRC+ across four levels of the minor leagues.

Holliday sat down to talk hitting over the weekend prior to a Grapefruit League game in Sarasota.

———

David Laurila: How do you approach hitting?

Jackson Holliday: “As far as guessing pitches… that’s not something I’m great at. But I really enjoy learning about swings — different guys’ swings — how they work, and little things that can help, like cues. My dad has been around baseball for so long, and is such a hitting guy, and I got that from him. But yeah, my approach is pretty simple. I try to stay in the middle of field, stay on my backside, and hit the heater.”

Laurila: Are you basically hunting fastballs and adjusting from there?

Holliday: “Yeah. I sit fastball. I don’t sit offspeed unless there is a real outlier. That’s something I learned from my dad. He would sit heater and try to hit it to the middle of the field. If you’re in a good spot to hit a fastball to the middle of the field you can adjust to the offspeed pitch a lot better than you can sitting offspeed and trying to hit a heater.”

Laurila: How hard is it to be diligent with that? There are going to be times where your subconscious brain tells you, “He’s not going to throw a fastball here.” Read the rest of this entry »

With spring training games in full swing, the pressure is mounting for baseball’s remaining free agents to find homes. After all, nobody wants to miss out on the weather in Florida or Arizona this time of year, and Opening Day is just a few weeks away. Now Tim Anderson won’t have to fret. Anderson is heading to the Miami Marlins on a one-year, $5 million deal. With a clear path to the starting shortstop role, the 30-year-old will no doubt hope to re-enter free agency this winter having bounced back from his disappointing final season in Chicago.

Anderson’s fit in Miami is an interesting one. If he can stay healthy and return to his prior form, he could help to stabilize the shortstop position in Miami. But he also constitutes a risky addition to an already uncertain Marlins lineup. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where neither Anderson nor Jazz Chisholm Jr. has an offensive bounce-back, Luis Arraez regresses, and Jake Burger’s contact overhaul proves to be just a flash in the pan; it could all go sideways pretty quickly. But if it goes right, this could be an exciting lineup. If nothing else, the top three of Arraez, Anderson, and Chisholm make for a very fun group. Still, in order for things to go right for Anderson, he needs to recover some of the BABIP skills that were a key reason for his success. Let’s focus on how exactly that might happen.

From 2019-2022, Anderson led the majors in batting average with a .318 mark. On a hit per plate appearance basis, nobody was more productive. Then in 2023, he cratered. Knee, shoulder, forearm, and neck injuries all contributed to the contact hitter dropping to a 60 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR in 123 games. Add to that concerns about his ability to stick at shortstop, and you have yourself a player who fell $3 million short of his median crowdsourced contract prediction. The shape of Anderson’s production through his successful four-year run was inherently volatile. He definitely possessed skills that propelled him to run above-average BABIPs, but the margin for error for that hitting style is razor thin; a handful of injuries and some loss of strength can make an otherwise productive profile almost unplayable. Read the rest of this entry »

I write about the Rays a lot. I just wrote about them signing Amed Rosario, for example. Earlier this month, I wrote an article titled “The Rays Can’t Keep Getting Away With This, Can They?”, and in another, I wrote that I had recently daydreamed about one of my favorite Rays players during a root canal. I’m endlessly impressed by how this team does it. But this year? I cannot put into words how wild I find this version of its team construction. In other words, I’m writing about the Rays because they deserve it – or at least I think so.

Last year, they won 99 games. They had both one of the best offenses and one of the best pitching staffs in the American League. They did a little bit of everything, and nearly overtook the Orioles for first place in the AL as a result. But that was last year. Three of Tampa Bay’s top six players aren’t returning.

There’s Wander Franco, of course. He may never play another game of major league baseball. Tyler Glasnow, who looked downright indomitable in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, got traded to the Dodgers. Shane McClanahan is having Tommy John himself. Heck, Jeffrey Springs came into the season as one of the team’s best pitchers, and his own surgery will keep him out until after the All Star break this year.
Read the rest of this entry »

For as strong as his 2023 campaign had been, and for as well positioned as he was in this winter’s market, Cody Bellinger‘s free agency was always hampered by questions of sustainability. His debut season with the Cubs followed two unsettlingly bad years with the Dodgers, and the metrics underlying last season’s resurgence were comparatively modest relative to his production, raising the possibility if not the likelihood of regression. In light of those issues, even as he placed third on our Top 50 Free Agents list heading into the offseason and reportedly sought a contract as high as $250 million, it seemed quite likely he’d come away with considerably less. He did, agreeing to return to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal, one that contains opt-outs after the first two seasons, and one that was still pending a physical as of this writing.

Effectively, this is a pillow contract, negotiated by the agent who created the term, Scott Boras. The 28-year-old Bellinger will get the opportunity to show that his 2023 performance was no fluke, with two chances before his age-30 season to secure a much bigger payday. He’s guaranteed $30 million in 2024, with salaries of $30 million in ’25 and $20 million in ’26 if he hasn’t exercised his opt-outs, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Bellinger came to the Cubs after an eventful 10-year run in the Dodgers’ organization, one that began when the son of former utilityman Clay Bellinger was drafted in the fourth round out of an Arizona high school in 2013. He hit 39 home runs while winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2017, and smacked 47 homers two years later while taking home the NL MVP award. His timely hitting and spectacular fielding during the 2020 postseason helped the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988, but one of those timely hits precipitated his fall. Celebrating what proved to be the decisive home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS against the Braves, the exuberant Bellinger dislocated his right (non-throwing) shoulder after bashing forearms with teammate Enrique Hernández. He underwent arthroscopic labrum surgery after the World Series, started slowly in spring training, and then in the fourth game of the season suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula, knocking him out for eight weeks. Unable to find his rhythm as he recovered from both shoulder and leg issues, he hit a gruesome .165/.240/.302 (47 wRC+) with -1.0 WAR in 350 plate appearances, though he showed signs of life during the playoffs when he adopted a shortened swing with lower hand placement; he hit .353/.436/.471 (146 wRC+) across 39 plate appearances in 12 postseason games. While he got off to a solid start in 2022, he couldn’t maintain it despite endlessly tinkering with his swing. Exceptional defense in center field kept him in the lineup, but he hit just .210/.265/.389 (83 wRC+) with 1.8 WAR, and was nontendered following the season.

Less than three weeks later, Bellinger agreed to a one-year deal with the Cubs, one that paid him $12.5 million for 2023 with a $1 million bonus for winning NL Comeback Player of the Year honors (which he did) and a $5 million buyout on a $25 million mutual option for ’24. He declined his end of the option as well as the $20.325 million qualifying offer he received, and entered the market as the top free agent position player, behind only pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto on our list.

For Bellinger, last year’s change of scenery proved to be just what the doctor ordered. Reuniting with Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly and assistant Johnny Washington, both of whom he had worked with in the Dodgers’ system, Bellinger focused on adjusting his mechanics, particularly with regards to his hand placement and back hip, allowing him to use his lower body better. He further adapted his approach by pulling the ball with less frequency than at any time since his rookie season, and shortening his swing with two strikes to focus on contact. The result was his best season since 2019, as he hit .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers and 20 steals in 130 games — he missed nearly four weeks with a left knee contusion — while cutting his strikeout rate from 27.3% to 15.6%. Coupled with solid defense in center field, his 4.1 WAR tied for 20th in the NL and was the second-best showing of his career.

Bellinger’s intent is worth noting when digging into his underlying metrics, as he sacrificed some power in exchange for contact en route to the lowest exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate of his career:

Bellinger’s barrel rate placed in just the 27th percentile, his exit velo in the 22nd percentile, and his hard-hit rate in the 10th percentile. He outdid his expected slugging percentage by 91 points, and his expected wOBA by 43 points; both gaps ranked third in the majors among batting title qualifiers (502 PA). On the other hand, his .279 AVG and .312 wOBA with two strikes ranked second and seventh in the majors, thanks in large part to his consistency in collecting hits despite soft contact, a topic that MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and our own Esteban Rivera both investigated.

All of that created something of a puzzle for Bellinger’s suitors — most prominently the Blue Jays (considered the favorites to sign him as of mid-December) and Giants, with the Mariners and Yankees also connected to him via rumors. Bellinger’s deal always seemed unlikely to approach the hot air of the $200 million-plus Borasphere, but in our Top 50 exercise, Ben Clemens projected him to get a six-year, $150 million contract, and our crowdsource expected a six-year, $144 million one. Other outlets went even higher.

As the Blue Jays dragged their feet this winter, the Giants turned to Jung Hoo Lee, and the Cubs refused to act like a large-market team, Bellinger’s anticipated market never fully materialized, with the aforementioned issues undoubtedly playing a part, as well. By ZiPS, he did well to get as much as he did:

ZiPS projects just a three-year, $70 million contract for that forecast, per Dan Szymborski, though perhaps that’s not surprising given that Bellinger has had just one good season out of the last three. Based on the percentile breakdowns, it appears the system gives him only about a 10% to 20% chance of matching or exceeding last year’s performance:

Bellinger probably doesn’t have to match his 2023 numbers to justify opting out, and he does have two chances to decide when to enter the market again. Still, a mediocre 2024 followed by a strong ’25 would probably leave teams with similar questions to the ones they confronted this winter.

As for how he fits into the Cubs, the key word is flexibility. The team already had Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, both entering their age-29 seasons and on multi-year deals, set for the outfield corners. Prior to Bellinger’s re-signing, Pete Crow-Armstrong, the 20th-ranked prospect on our Top 100 list, appeared likely to take over as the Chicago’s regular center fielder. A 2020 first-round pick acquired from the Mets in the Javier Báez trade at the ’21 deadline, Crow-Armstrong hit a combined .283/.365/.511 (127 wRC+) in 73 games at Double-A Tennessee and 34 games at Triple-A Iowa. He went just 0-for-14 with three walks and two sacrifice hits in a cup of coffee with the Cubs, though to be fair, he started just three of the 13 games in which he appeared. He’s considered an elite center fielder who’s fearless on the basepaths and should produce at least average power. “If he can plug that hole over time, he’ll be a five-tool superstar,” wrote our prospect team of Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin. “More likely, he’ll have some 20-25 homer seasons amid a ton of strikeouts and a low OBP, with peak years resembling Mike Cameron’s (though almost certainly not to that level of annual consistency).”

Given Crow-Armstrong’s age (he turns 22 on March 25) and modest amount of upper-level experience, it always seemed possible that he would start the season in the minors before rejoining the Cubs. Now it would appear even more likely. If he hits his way back to the majors in a hurry, the Cubs could use him in center field and play Bellinger at first base, where lefty-swinging rookie Michael Busch was slated to be the starter or at least the long half of a platoon with righty Patrick Wisdom. The 26-year-old Busch, no. 84 on our prospect list, is considered a bat-only prospect who last played first base regularly at North Carolina, and who may be better suited to DH duty. Alternately, Bellinger has experience in both left field (315.1 innings, though none since 2018) and right (989 innings, the bulk of them in 2019), and Happ has experience at every defensive position except shortstop and catcher, though he hasn’t played the infield since 2021, when he totaled 36 innings, mostly at second base. Also in the category of moving parts is Christopher Morel, who last year saw time at all three outfield positions plus second base, shortstop, and third base; he was projected to get the bulk of the work at DH but also to be in the third base mix along with Nick Madrigal. Suffice to say that new manager Craig Counsell will have options for how to piece his lineup together, and that a clearer picture may emerge during spring training.

Via our Depth Charts projections, here’s a comparison of how the situation looked before the signing and immediately after, in terms of estimated plate appearances:

In terms of overall playing time, the real loser of the Bellinger deal is Mike Tauchman, a capable center fielder who hit .252/.363/.377 (107 wRC+) last year, with Crow-Armstrong, Madrigal, and Wisdom also losing substantial time. Keep in mind that all of this is based on best guesses just as exhibition season has opened, and before the Cubs have even confirmed the deal. A lot could still change.

Particularly with the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, and Reds each projected to win between 79 and 85 games, the NL Central is expected to be a dogfight. Any impactful addition could be the difference between reaching the postseason — something the Cubs haven’t done since 2020 — and staying home. By bringing back Bellinger, the team has given itself a better shot at playing in October without assuming a huge long-term risk. Bellinger, for his part, gets to return to a comfortable situation with a contending team, while also knowing that he can play his way into a bigger contract. It will be fascinating to see how this all unfolds.

In terms of rankings and projection, Mick Abel is much the same pitcher he was 24 months ago. When the now-22-year-old right-hander was featured in February 2022 during our annual Prospect Week, he was No. 1 in the Philadelphia Phillies system and No. 20 on our Top 100. Fast forward to the present, and he is No. 2 in the Philadelphia Phillies system and No. 22 on our Top 100. As Eric Longenhagen explained in his recent writeup, “Abel didn’t have an especially good 2023… [but] still has most all of the ingredients needed to be an impact starter, he just isn’t totally baked yet.”

How has the 2019 first-rounder out of Beaverton, Oregon’s Jesuit High School matured the most since our conversation two years ago? I asked him that question at Philadelphia’s spring training facility in Clearwater, Florida on Friday.

“I’d say it’s the separation of over-the-rubber and over-the-plate mentality, knowing how to distinguish between the two,” replied Abel, who had a 27.5% strikeout rate but also a 13.5% walk rate in 108-and-two-third innings with Double-A Reading last year. “Whether it’s in the bullpen or on the game-mound, knowing when and how to make adjustments without getting too deep in my head about it.

“Staying more direct and knowing that if I get too long with my arm action in back I’m going to be a little later to the plate,“ Abel said when asked to elaborate on the actual mechanics. “I want to make sure that everything is on time going down the hill.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Boras Four behind the scenes, Hyun Jin Ryu’s salary-cap-skirting KBO contract, and a study on the effectiveness of complaining about umps, plus a Stat Blast (22:51) about an inaccurate, unkillable Greg Maddux fun fact and more musings (34:52) on transparent pants. Then they preview the 2024 Minnesota Twins (41:02) with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, and the 2024 Detroit Tigers (1:12:50) with The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen.

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 1: Davy Andrews, “Edouard Julien, Are You Gonna Rule Again?”
Audio interstitial 2: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to MLBTR on the Boras Four
Link to article about Boras
Link to Boras facilities
Link to Ryu tweet
Link to Ryu article
Link to MLBTR on Judge offer
Link to Harper offer report
Link to Kovalchuk veto
Link to Yoo’s EW appearance
Link to umpire study
Link to EW on ump decision fatigue
Link to Boone EW hypothetical
Link to Ryan’s Maddux fact thread
Link to Maddux’s count splits
Link to Maddux Stat Blast data
Link to Maddux scouting reports
Link to Maddux 93 mph claim
Link to MLB pants statement
Link to Twins offseason tracker
Link to Diamondbacks depth chart
Link to Pohlad comments
Link to Aaron’s Athletic archive
Link to Gleeman and the Geek
Link to Tigers offseason tracker
Link to Tigers depth chart
Link to Cody on engagements
Link to Cody’s Athletic archive
Link to Skubal fWAR leaderboard
Link to article on MLB exec fashion
Link to Turning the Corner

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After the trades of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander last summer, Kodai Senga assumed the role of the Mets’ staff ace, and figured to be the team’s Opening Day starter this year. Already, however, the Mets are in the position of having to adjust. A day after Senga missed a team workout due to what was initially described as arm fatigue, president of baseball operations David Stearns revealed that the 31-year-old righty will start the year on the injured list with a shoulder strain. For as tantalizing as the possibility of a free agent addition may be, the team plans to stay in-house to absorb his absence.

In Wednesday’s media session, manager Carlos Mendoza said that after Tuesday’s side session, Senga told Mets trainers he was experiencing arm fatigue, which is hardly uncommon at this time of year as pitchers build up their workloads. This wasn’t the first time this spring that he had reported fatigue, however, and so the Mets sent him for an MRI, which revealed a moderate posterior capsule strain. He’ll be shut down from throwing, but this isn’t an injury that suggests he’ll need surgery. Even so, Stearns would not offer a timeline for his return. “What I can say at this point, comfortably, is we don’t expect Opening Day,” he told reporters on Thursday. “But I do expect him to make a bunch of starts for us this year… Hopefully we caught it early enough that this is just a speedbump.”

While not presented as a worst-case scenario, that’s still pretty vague as far as what Senga might contribute in 2024, and when. If there’s good news, it’s that this isn’t the type of shoulder injury that Kyle Wright and Brandon Woodruff suffered. As Under the Knife’s Will Carroll pointed out, they had anterior capsule tears that required surgical repair, costing them most of 2023 and likely all of this season. Nonetheless, however long Senga is out, the Mets will have a tough time replacing him.

After 11 seasons with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of the Japan Pacific League, Senga joined the Mets on a five-year, $75 million contract. Given his history of pitching only every sixth or seventh day in Japan, the team did its best to provide him a bit of extra rest between starts; only three times did he take a turn on four days of rest, with 17 starts coming on five days, six on six days, and three on more than that. All told, he acquitted himself in impressive fashion, posting a 2.98 ERA and 3.63 FIP in 166.1 innings, making the NL All-Star team, and placing second in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Corbin Carroll and seventh in the Cy Young voting. That ERA ranked second in the league behind Blake Snell’s 2.20, while his 202 strikeouts placed eighth and his 3.4 WAR tied for ninth. Among Japanese-born pitchers who have come stateside, only Hideo Nomo and Yu Darvish had stronger debuts in terms of WAR or strikeouts, with the former totaling 5.2 WAR and 236 K’s for the Dodgers in 1995, while the latter had 4.7 WAR and 221 K’s for the Rangers in 2012.

When Senga joined the Mets, he figured to be the third starter on a contending team behind a pair of three-time Cy Young award winners, but that changed when they traded Scherzer and Verlander. With the Mets’ decision to rein in their payroll — still the majors’ largest in terms of annual salaries ($315 million) and Competitive Balance Tax ($328 million) — this winter, he now fronts a rotation with a much lower ceiling on a team projected to finish around .500. Currently ranked 23rd in projected starting pitcher WAR by our Depth Charts, this group is full of pitchers aspiring to stay healthy, available, and productive for a full season.

The most experienced of the group is 35-year-old lefty José Quintana, who after making at least 31 starts annually from 2013–19 has done so just once in the past three seasons. Last year, his first of a two-year, $26 million deal with the Mets, he was limited to 13 starts by a stress fracture in his rib, one that was revealed to be caused by a benign lesion that required bone graft surgery. He was solid upon his return just after the All-Star break, posting a 3.57 ERA and 3.52 FIP in 75.2 innings. He did a great job of avoiding hard contact, and his sinker was particularly effective, holding hitters to a .198 AVG and .253 SLG in 105 PA. Even if he’s just a five-and-fly guy — he’s averaged less than 5 1/3 innings in each of his last three full seasons (2018, ’19, ’22) — he should provide some welcome stability for the rotation while fulfilling the role of the sage veteran.

The most accomplished of the group is 30-year-old righty Luis Severino, a two-time All-Star who has finished as high as third in the Cy Young voting. But due to shoulder inflammation (2019), Tommy John surgery (2020-21), and a pair of lat strains (2022 and ’23), he’s managed just 40 starts and 209.1 innings over the past five seasons. When he was available last year between a season-opening lat strain and a season-ending oblique strain, he generally struggled, posting a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP in 89.1 innings while serving up a gruesome 2.32 home runs per nine. His four-seam fastball still averaged 96.5 mph, but hitters slugged .680 against it, a problem that may be attributable to his tipping pitches with men on base. Even so, he did have the occasional start that offered hope he could find his way out of such a mess. The Mets signed him to a one-year, $13 million deal on the belief that it’s possible, particularly if he can avoid tipping.

Also tantalizing in terms of velocity is 32-year-old lefty Sean Manaea, who split last season between the bullpen (27 appearances, many of them following an opener) and rotation (10 starts) for the Giants, putting up a 4.40 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 117.2 innings. After spending time at Driveline after the 2022 season, Manaea increased his average four-seam velocity from 91.3 mph to 93.6, and was able to maintain that gain even during his longer outings. He also added a sweeper that held hitters to a .158 AVG and .184 SLG in 42 PA while generating a 36.3% whiff rate. This year, after more work at Driveline, he’s planning to introduce an improved changeup. His existing one held hitters to a .208 AV and .333 SLG in 2023, but generated just an 18.7% whiff rate; with an adjusted grip, he’s hoping to get batters to chase more. He’s also adding a new cutter to serve as a weapon against righties, who hit for a .333 wOBA against him in 2023, compared to the .256 wOBA he allowed to lefties.

The other newcomer from outside the organization is 31-year-old righty Adrian Houser. Acquired from the Brewers on December 20 along with outfielder Tyrone Taylor in a trade that sent righty prospect Coleman Crow to Milwaukee, Houser posted a 4.12 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 111.1 innings last year, making 21 starts and two relief appearances. He didn’t make his season debut until May 7 due to a groin strain, and missed a couple of weeks in late August and early September with elbow inflammation. Houser throws a heavy sinker, generates lots of groundballs, and does a decent job of keeping the ball in the park, though last year’s 1.05 HR/9 was his highest full-season rate since 2019.

Stearns said the battle to replace Senga features Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and José Butto, all of whom have at least one minor league option remaining. By now the 28-year-old Megill is a familiar face, as he’s pitched for the Mets on and off since debuting in June 2021. In fact, he was pressed into duty as the Opening Day starter in 2022, and three weeks later, he threw the first five innings of a combined no-hitter. His 25 starts last year ranked second on the team, but unfortunately, he was erratic to the point of getting sent down to Triple-A Syracuse for about six weeks. He finished with a 4.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP as he struggled to throw strikes and avoid hard contact. He walked 10.2% of hitters while striking out just 18.5%; between that and the 9% of his batted balls that were barreled, he ended up with a 5.89 xERA. He can bring it with a mid-90s fastball and great extension thanks to his 6-foot-7 frame, but maintaining his velocity has been a challenge. In his final outing of last season, he broke out a split-fingered fastball that he learned from Senga, and he spent the winter working to hone it; he calls it “The American Spork,” referencing Senga’s “Ghost Fork.” “Got a lot of reps with it and it’s working well,” he told reporters this week. “It’s definitely part of the arsenal now.”

Lucchesi, a 30-year-old lefty, has spent parts of five seasons in the majors. He made nine starts totaling 46.2 innings for the Mets last year, turning in a tidy 2.89 ERA that was hardly supported by his peripherals; he struck out just 16.4% of hitters and served up a 10.4% barrel rate en route to a 4.22 FIP and a 5.48 xERA. Butto, a 25-year-old righty, is the least experienced of the three, still a rookie actually. He throws a 93-95 mph fastball with a plus changeup and a good slider; the secondaries both miss bats at an above-average rate. Used as a spot starter last year, he made seven starts and two relief appearances totaling 42 innings, turning in a 3.64 ERA and 4.02 FIP, walking a gaudy 12.8% of hitters (against a modest 21.2% strikeout rate) but holding them to a 2.5% barrel rate and 0.64 HR/9.

Unlikely to figure into the Mets’ season-opening plans but perhaps in play later this year are righties Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, and Dominic Hamel, all of whom Eric Longenhagen covered in the team’s Imminent Big Leaguers piece earlier this month (along with Butto). None of those three are on the 40-man roster; Scott and Hamel are entering their age-25 seasons but haven’t pitched above Double-A, while Vasil is entering his age-24 season and took 16 turns at Syracuse last year, as well as 10 at Binghamton. Via Longenhagen, Scott grades out as the best of them, a 50 FV prospect who projects as a mid-rotation starter thanks to his combination of a 94-95 mph fastball, a plus slider, and a splitter. He’s 6-foot-4, weighs 215 pounds and gets great extension. Hamel, a 45 FV prospect, throws a 92-96 mph fastball and two good breaking balls but has iffy command. Vasil, a 45 FV prospect, projects as “a rock steady no. 4/5 starter on a good team,” per Longehagen; he throws a 92-95 mph fastball, a plus slider, an average curveball and a changeup.

While the free agent market still has no shortage of pitchers who could help the Mets, from expensive options, such as Snell and Jordan Montgomery, to more affordable ones, such as righties Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, and Zack Greinke, the team’s tax situation makes a signing highly unlikely. Given that they’re already above the fourth-tier threshold of $297 million, the Mets will pay a 110% tax on the salaries of anybody they add. “We’re asking people to step up,” said Stearns, speaking of his internal options.

If enough of those pitchers do step up, the Mets could have an interesting summer, because even with Senga down, they currently project to have a 30.6% chance of making the playoffs. But those odds still depend upon him making a substantial contribution to the team, and right now, that’s anything but guaranteed.

Well, Mike Rizzo wasn’t joking. At the Washington Nationals’ spring training facility, behind each of the 11 home plates in the bullpen, there are signs posted, and they’re not printed on paper. Somebody in the organization shelled out to have “I don’t care how fast you throw ball four” printed on canvas, in team colors, with a border all around and a logo at the bottom. The grommets at each corner, which allow them to be zip-tied tightly to the fence, probably cost extra. No National will throw a bullpen without seeing those signs for the next month. Whenever the team decides to remove them, somebody is going to have a rough a time cutting through all that thick plastic. It’ll take some doing.

Mike Rizzo was not joking when he said they would have these signs at spring training.

“I don’t care how fast you throw ball four.” pic.twitter.com/tT9x1Pv6yi

— Andrew Golden (@andrewcgolden) February 14, 2024

Rizzo road tested the line at the team’s annual hot stove event in January, and it brought down the house, earning sustained laughter and an applause break. In the absolute most literal sense, he’s right. If a pitch ends up as ball four, who cares how hard it was thrown? You might as well huck it up there underhanded like a cricket bowler. But that’s not really how baseball works. The pitcher doesn’t know beforehand whether the batter is going to swing, so let’s take Rizzo a shade less literally and look at how fastballs perform when they’re thrown in three-ball counts. The graph below shows four-seamers and sinkers, bucketed in one mile per hour increments. I went back and checked the numbers a second time because the line is so straight that the graph looks like it was airbrushed:

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