FanGraphs Baseball

Earlier recaps: Episode 1 / Episode 2 / Episode 3.

Welcome to our recap of the fourth episode of “Pitch”, entitled “The Break”. Many of you were likely too busy watching that wild NLDS Game 5 to have gotten around to this episode at time of posting, so proceed with caution, as there are spoilers.

The All-Star break has arrived in the “Pitch” universe. As in real life, the 2016 All-Star Game takes place in San Diego. What feels less like real life is that MLB is paying serious attention to an online campaign to get a player into the game who wasn’t voted in by the fans.

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Eric Longenhagen is publishing brief, informal notes from his looks at the prospects of the Arizona Fall League and, for the moment, the Fall Instructional League. Find all editions here.

As Fall Instructional League winds down here in Arizona, teams have begun playing their games earlier in the day, allowing scouts to double and triple up should they so choose, catching instrux at 9 or 10 am before moving on to the afternoon and night Fall League games. For me yesterday, that meant seeing the Brewers’ and Diamondbacks’ instructional-league teams in the early morning. Of note from that game, the Brewers lined up second-round pick Lucas Erceg at shortstop and shifted Gilbert Lara over to third. Lara’s destiny likely lies at a position other than his usual shortstop — and so, too, does Erceg’s (despite a 70-grade arm) — and this was probably more of a fun experiment or opportunity to let Lara move around than it is earnest developmental news for Erceg, who has looked great throughout instrux but can’t play shortstop.

Luis Alejandro Basabe homered the opposite way during the game. He has more power than his incredibly small frame would otherwise indicate. His double-play partner, Jasrado (Jazz) Chisholm, showed off his precocious defensive ability at shortstop, ranging to his left behind the bag, corralling an odd hop while he simultaneously made contact with second base and then making a strong, mostly accurate throw to first base from an awkward platform. It wasn’t especially pretty but an impressive play nonetheless.

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Baseball can be such a complex game. We’ve got radars and cameras that track every movement on the field and spit out massive data sets at the conclusion of each contest. We’ve got run-expectancy simulators and lineup optimizers and a tool that allows one to search any combination of season, game, split, event, and streak stats from any player in any number of years dating back more than a century. We love baseball due in part to its layers of intricacies; there’s something for everyone, and no two fans share an identical relationship with the sport. At its core, baseball, to the observer, serves as nothing more than a distraction, and the complexity of the game affords those observers a seemingly infinite supply of secondary distractions when the primary one is insufficient.

Baseball can be such a simple game. Sometimes, even with all the information at the disposal of the coaches and players, it can be best not to overthink things. Important moment? Bring in the best pitcher. Bring in the best pitcher, the way Dave Roberts did with Kenley Jansen with two men on and no outs in the bottom of the seventh of an NLDS Game 5, facing elimination. Got a good pitch? Throw that pitch. Throw that pitch 39 out of 47 times, the way Jansen did with his cutter to carve up the Nationals for 2.1 erratic but effective innings.

Jansen’s decisions with the cutter were nothing out of the ordinary — he threw his cutter 83% of the time last night, he threw his cutter 88% of the time during the regular season — but there was something about his outing, something about the way that he works in a near-state of perpetual motion, that brought a sort of calming beauty to an otherwise hectic and turbulent affair. A 4-hour, 32-minute game which featured a 66-minute seventh inning, a 13-pitch walk, 11 pitching changes, and, eventually, a moment of triumph. And in the middle of all that was a 29-year-old former catcher from Curaçao, standing on the pitcher’s mound in the middle of a whirlwind in perhaps the biggest moment of his career, just throwing cutter after cutter.

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It’s safe to say that Dusty Baker is not exactly the most progressive manager in baseball. Baker has always been an old school guy, and relative to what is becoming the new normal, he’s definitely a traditionalist. So as we live-blogged game five of the NLDS last night, one of the common questions in the early innings is what mistake Baker would make that would cost his team the game. The expectation was set in advance; if the Nationals lost, Baker’s old-school philosophies would be part of the reason why.

Of course, the Nationals did lose, 4-3, in one of the most intense playoff games you’ll ever see. And as is the case in any one run loss, there’s always second guessing of decisions the next morning, wondering if things would have turned out differently if other choices would have been made. But in reality, Dusty Baker’s big expected mistake last night never came, and we shouldn’t blame him for last night’s loss.

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The Indians go into tonight’s ALCS Game 1 against the Blue Jays with momentum. They just swept the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS. After winning a pair at home, Cleveland eked out a nail-biter at Fenway Park behind a strong effort by unheralded right-hander Josh Tomlin, prudent bullpen usage, and — as they did throughout the series — the execution of a well-formulated game plan.

The Indians were underdogs. They won 94 regular-season games and captured the AL Central, but they lacked the star power of their first-round opponent. The same will be true when they face Toronto. Moreover, their No. 2 and 3 starters — Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco — are on the shelf with injuries. When the latter went down in mid-September, it was written that they were no longer serious postseason contenders. Despite the inevitable backlash, many outside the organization agreed with that opinion.

The extent to which the proverbial chip on the club’s collective shoulder contributed to the sweep can’t be quantified. It was undoubtably there, but by no means was it the biggest factor. The roster is more talented than many realize, and manager Terry Francona knows how to optimize it. Behind the scenes is one of baseball’s most analytically savvy front offices.

How do the players, coaches and executives view the battles with Boston, and their underdog role going forward? I queried several (including a few from the losing side) both before ALDS Game 3 and during its champagne-soaked aftermath.

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On Coming to Fenway Park for ALDS Game 3

Cody Allen, before Game 3: “I don’t think there’s really any momentum involved. They’re coming back into their home ballpark, and they probably feel pretty good coming back here to play. This is two very good baseball teams going at it. ”

Josh Tomlin, before Game 3: “You know that it’s going to be a packed house. It’s going to be rowdy and loud. The reason you play the game is for opportunities like this. I couldn’t be happier to be pitching here.”

Josh Tomlin, after Game 3: “We knew what we were getting ourselves into, coming here. I was surprised they knew my name, to be honest with you. It was awesome. Once they started chanting my name, it became real. I knew where I was at.”

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Criticisms regarding the length of games and pace of play are likely to continue being a focus for commissioner Rob Manfred as he continues to court a younger audience. Baseball games themselves remain MLB’s main product. Increasingly, however, access to that product has become an issue — an issue that could dwarf any pace-of-play problems in the coming years. As more consumers ditch cable, the lifeblood of Major League Baseball television revenues, fewer fans will have access to MLB games. Access is particularly important in the playoffs, where games receive the most national attention, and MLB’s decision in recent years to broadcast multiple games from it own MLB Network have limited viewership. However, MLB’s decision this season to offer a free preview of the network during the first week of the playoffs appears to have paid off.

There was once an outcry when playoff games moved from network television to cable, but that battle — to the degree that it ever existed — has been long lost. The World Series still airs on FOX, but both League Championship Series now appear exclusively on cable, as does the Division Series. Baseball isn’t alone in this regard, either. While the NFL, with its relatively light postseason schedule (only 11 games total), has managed to avoid moving games to cable, the NBA broadcasts both of its conference finals on cable networks. The NCAA’s championship games for both basketball and football, meanwhile, are found on channels that require a cable subscription. MLB’s decision to use its own network represents a bit of a difference case, however, than either of these.

MLB Network has been carrying playoff games for multiple years now, but with just 30-some posteason games available, the decision to remove two of them from wider circulation on standard cable packages — in essence to promote the league’s network — is a bit of a gamble, representing the equivalent of a healthy advertising investment. Broadcast networks are available in roughly 95% of television households, so putting a game on FOX renders it almost universally accessible to all baseball fans. Moving from FOX to say ESPN, TBS, or FS1 lowers that number to around 75-80% of television households. While that number might not be ideal, the number of subscribers approaches 100 million and reaches a vast majority of fans — both those who already fans of the game, as well as those who might be in the future. MLB Network lacks those numbers.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2016-17 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including more corner outfielders.

Other Players: Erick Aybar / Jose Bautista / Rajai Davis / Ian Desmond / Dexter Fowler / Carlos Gomez / Matt Holliday / Austin Jackson / Jon Jay / Matt Joyce / Brandon Moss / Mike Napoli / Angel Pagan / Wilson Ramos / Kurt Suzuki / Justin Turner / Chase Utley / Luis Valbuena / Neil Walker / Matt Wieters.

Steve Pearce (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Pearce:

• Has averaged 337 PA and 2.4 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 4.3 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 2.0 WAR in 302 PA in 2016.
• Is projected to record 2.7 WAR per 600 PA**.
• Is entering his age-34 season.
• Made $4.8M in 2016, as part of a deal signed in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Pearce.

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Position: Seattle Mariners Baseball Analytics Intern

Location: Seattle
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Let’s pick it up in the bottom of the sixth, shall we? In a decisive Game 5, the Nationals held a 1-0 lead, and they were looking to stretch it. With two outs and someone on first who can run faster than you can, Ryan Zimmerman knocked a double to the left-field corner, and the Nationals’ third-base coach got aggressive. He waved Jayson Werth around, figuring that an insurance run would be absolutely massive. An out and, well, you tried, and you’ve still got the late lead. Werth gave it what he could.

That’s Werth at the bottom, running his tail off. Coach Bob Henley isn’t even looking anymore, now that the matter would be out of his hands. By this point he must’ve had a suspicion. Based on my calculations, the break-even rate here was 35%. That is, it made sense to send Werth around third if you thought he’d be safe at home at least 35% of the time. With the throw coming from just past third base, it looked like Werth would be safe at home about 0% of the time.

The camera has panned, and you don’t see the baseball. That’s because the baseball is in the glove of the catcher, and Werth is maybe, what, two-thirds of the way to the plate? Less than that? Werth is out. He’s so out. Baserunners are practically never this out. Werth is so out he might’ve given brief consideration to turning around. Until just a few years ago, a play that developed like this might’ve at least resulted in an exciting collision. Collisions are easy sells to the members of an average audience. Runners used to have one way out. That way was dangerous, and sometimes electrifying.

Werth stopped. He didn’t stay stopped — he went to the trouble of closing the distance. But Werth gave up. He was out, and he knew it, and he accepted it, and the Nationals still had the lead. So concluded a thrilling baseball sequence, by which a casual baseball viewer might not have been thrilled.

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