Oneil Cruz is a player of extremes. The 6-foot-7 shortstop — the tallest man ever to play the position regularly — doesn’t just have incredible bat speed and power, he can lay claim to the hardest-hit ball of the Statcast era, and he once held the record for the hardest throw by an infielder as well. But for as loud as his contact is, the frequency with which he makes it has been an issue, as he’s particularly prone to chasing pitches outside the zone. Defensive metrics don’t love him either. Yet he’s the kind of player you can’t take your eyes off, because when it all comes together, it’s a sight to behold — and gradually, it’s been coming together more frequently.
Case in point: Last week found Cruz in a prolonged funk, hitting just .151/.224/.283 in his previous 58 plate appearances dating back to May 15 while striking out 23 times (39.6%) in that span. After going 0-for-4 in last Tuesday’s series opener against the Dodgers, he collected a pair of hits the next night, including this three-run homer off Evan Phillips:
That’s a 462-footer into the Allegheny River, the longest homer of Cruz’s major league career by 25 feet, and the third splash hit of his career; he also had ones on September 6, 2022 and May 3 of this season. The 117.7-mph exit velocity on his shot off Phillips made it his hardest-hit home run to date by 0.2 mph, surpassing an August 28, 2022 dinger in Milwaukee. For both distance and exit velocity, he’s up there with the big boys; the homer off Phillips is the majors’ seventh-longest this year behind three from Aaron Judge (a 473-footer from May 9 being the longest) and ones by Mike Trout, Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. Cruz’s homer is the fourth-fastest in exit velocity behind two by Giancarlo Stanton (a 119.9-mph shot from May 8 being the fastest) and one by Ohtani. He’s right there in flavor country when it comes to some of the new bat tracking metrics, second only to Stanton in average bat speed (78.0 mph) and fast-swing rate (74.6%); he’s below average in terms of his squared-up rate (23.1%) — that’s the rate at which he obtains at least 80% of the maximum exit velocity for that swing — but a respectable 15th in blast rate (16.2%), the rate at which he squares up balls on fast swings. Read the rest of this entry »
Over the past month, smart people have been deciphering the relationship between swing length and pitch location in MLB’s new bat tracking data. If you’re looking at raw data, it’s hard to know whether someone has a long swing because they like inside pitches (Isaac Paredes) or because their swing is actually long and loopy (Javier Báez). In order to make solid contact with an inside pitch, the barrel needs to meet the ball out in front of the plate, which means that it will take a longer journey to the point of contact than it would to meet a pitch over the middle of the plate. Below is a breakdown of Luis Arraez’s swing length against fastballs. As you can see, even the king of the short swing gets long when he has to reach pitches up-and-in or down-and-away.
Some of this is as old as the game itself. It’s the reason pitchers throw fastballs up and in, where a necessarily longer, slower swing makes them harder to catch up with. Bat tracking has given us numbers to back up another intuitive part of the game: Swing length is positively correlated with bat speed, confirming that players who are short to the ball sacrifice bat speed for bat control and contact ability. Those two correlations, pitch location to swing length and swing length to bat speed, got me thinking about the launch angle revolution.
The launch angle revolution really got its hooks into Major League Baseball in 2015. That’s the year Joey Gallo and Kris Bryant debuted, and the year Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy fully turned themselves from contact hitters into power threats. In The MVP Machine, Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchick documented what Turner was thinking in 2013, the very first time he tried out the new approach for which teammate Marlon Byrd had been proselytizing. “I was thinking, I’m just going to try and catch the ball as far out as I can in batting practice,” Turner said.
Catching the ball out front often means pulling it, especially in the air. The league’s overall pull rate is roughly the same as it was in 2011, but as you can see from the chart above, its pull rate on air balls — the line drives and fly balls where hitters do damage — hit an all-time high in 2017 and then again in four of the next five years. The exact approaches can differ. “I’m going to be on the fastball and drive it to right center, and if I’m a little early on the slider I’ll catch it out in front,” Austin Riley told Eno Sarris last year. And as Ben Clemens has noted, hitters have increased their pulled balls in the air simply by choosing to attack pitches that lend themselves to being launched in that direction. But strictly speaking, there isn’t a huge inherent advantage to pulling the baseball. If you’re going to hit a long fly ball, it’s better not to hit it to straightaway center, where the fence is deeper and the fielders are better, but that’s equally true for both pulling the ball and going the opposite way. In a sense, pulling the baseball is just a side effect of catching the ball out in front. Read the rest of this entry »
Surely this is just some piece of cosmic performance art. If you’re looking for proof that we live in a simulation, Isaac Paredes’ spray chart is strong evidence. Sure, you’ve heard of pull hitters. What about only-right-at-the-foul-pole hitters, though?
Paredes is doing the same thing he always seems to. Through 259 plate appearances this season, he has the best wRC+ of his career at 147. Think it’s all about his one simple trick for hitting homers? He’s 16th in baseball in on-base percentage. He’s still walking roughly 10% of the time and striking out far less frequently than average. None of it makes sense, and yet it keeps happening.
The “Paredes approach” has been endlessly rehashed at this point. He puts the ball in the air. He pulls the ball in the air. He makes a tremendous amount of contact, and he cuts down on his swing to do so. His bat speed and exit velocity numbers are unimpressive, and he hits a ton of fly balls that would be outs if they went anywhere other than the left field corner. But, well, they keep going to the left field corner, as we’ve already covered.
Let’s put it this way: Here’s a list of pull rate on fly balls for all hitters, from Paredes’ debut in 2020 through the end of last season:
J.T. Realmuto can no longer outrun the brutality of his chosen profession. The Phillies catcher, having battled knee discomfort all spring, is having right knee surgery. While Realmuto has dealt with knee pain for weeks, this is nevertheless startling news. Realmuto’s durability is the thing that makes him special; in 11 major league seasons, this is only his fourth stint on the IL (including a COVID quarantine period in 2021), and none of his previous trips have lasted longer than 22 days.
Moreover, Phillies Doomerism, as a mental health condition, is frequently comorbid with Sixers Doomerism. People who suffer from the latter probably heard the word “meniscus” flashed back to Joel Embiid collapsing in a heap and taking the Sixers’ season with him.
It’s not quite that bad. Realmuto is headed for the longest injury absence of his career, but absent some bizarre complication, he’ll be back well before the end of the regular season. Even if that weren’t the case, no baseball player is as important to his team as Embiid is to his. Nevertheless, the Phillies were built under the assumption that Realmuto would always be available. So even a brief absence is going to be problematic. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Bryce Harper pandering to Londoners, Kiké Hernández booting a ball during an in-game interview, banning player scouting cards to lower BABIP, the effect on home runs of widening the foul lines, Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Soderstrom, and a foul-territory hypothetical, crediting managers for sacrificial ejections, Aaron Judge’s scalding hot streak, Luis Gil performing like Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ candlelit clubhouse, Matt Waldron as the small-sample best pitcher in baseball, the dynamic duo of Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans, follow-ups about non-hated dynasties, the Angels’ resilient attendance, a mid-PA pitching change, and pterodactyls and dinosaurs, plus closing banter about Buster Olney’s hacked-Twitter Luis Robert Jr. trade rumors.
We’re back at it again with another batch of baseball lingo. As usual, I encourage you to go check out previous installments of this series to catch up on what you missed or familiarize yourself with the premise of these primers. You can find each of them by clicking on each individual part for its corresponding article:
At the end of my last piece, I hinted at moving beyond four-seamers, and digging into the types of pitches that typically make up the rest of a pitcher’s arsenal. But as soon as I sat down to start cataloging the ways that secondary pitch shapes are described, the vastness of the array of breaking balls and offspeed offerings throughout professional baseball quickly became overwhelming. That is largely due to how pitching practices and preferences vary from player to player, and how those individual approaches impact how each respective arsenal is most effectively used.
Asking a major league pitcher how to throw a slider would be like asking a world-renowned chef how to make scrambled eggs. They probably wouldn’t actually answer the question of how to make scrambled eggs, but rather, they’d tell you how they make their scrambled eggs. And those preparation processes would vary drastically. Some would be of the Anthony Bourdain ilk, with an inclination toward old-school simplicity. Beat eggs in a bowl with nothing but salt and pepper. Throw some butter in a hot pan and add the eggs, then move them around with a wooden spoon for a while. Meanwhile, others would take more of a Gordon Ramsay angle, insistent that a cold pot, a 60-second timer, and a dab of f—ing crème fraiche are all necessary for perfect scrambled eggs. The only shared components between these two preparations are the eggs, the heat, and the fact that they are kept in motion while cooking. And yet, both outputs, while different in innumerable ways, are classified simply as “scrambled eggs.”
Similarly, pitchers’ grips and releases of their secondary offerings also vary greatly from pitcher to pitcher. Depending on what a pitcher is naturally adept at, what he prefers, or even the length of his fingers or his overall grip strength can dictate how a he throws a given breaking ball or offspeed pitch. As a result, despite being classified as the same type, the shape of a pitch from one hurler to the next can look so different as to hardly seem comparable. So, before we dig into describing the shapes of specific pitches, and the way those shapes are created by a given pitcher, let’s boil down these classifications to their essential elements – the eggs, heat, and perpetual movement, as it were.
Secondary pitches, while individually unique, can also be broken down into basic elements. Namely, we can boil them down to the type of spin a pitcher applies to the ball, the angle of the spin axis he creates in doing so, and the degree of supination or pronation in his release that accomplishes these distinct spin attributes. Of course, there’s much more to pitch design than these elements, but understanding them is a great place to start.
So, let’s jump in!
Spin Axis
The spin axis is the central point that the ball is spinning around. In other words (apparently, I’m on a food metaphor kick right now), if the ball were a candy apple, and you wanted to use it to illustrate the spin of a certain pitch, the spin axis would be where you would hold the stick. It’s very rare for a ball to have perfect forms of any type of spin, with spin axes at perfect parallels or perpendiculars. Instead, variation comes from the pitcher’s arm slot, release point, supination/pronation (which I’ll discuss in a moment), and many other personalized characteristics. Those variations, among other factors, influence the degree to which a pitch’s shape digresses from pure north/south or east/west movement.
On a ball with pure backspin, the spin axis would be in the exact center of either side of the ball, horizontal to the ground. As mentioned in Pitching, Part 2: Backspin is created by the pitcher letting the ball roll off his fingertips.
Kopech keeps his fingers behind the ball upon release, and the seams move upward across the front of the ball as it travels toward the plate.
Gyroscopic spin is the term used to describe clockwise or counterclockwise spin. On a ball with pure gyroscopic spin, the spin axis would be in the exact center of the front and back of the ball, horizontal to the ground.
To create this bullet-like spin, Vodnik moves his fingers along the side of the ball as he releases it.
Topspin, also referred to as “forward spin” or sometimes “tumble,” is the inverse of backspin. On a ball with pure topspin, the spin axis would also be in the exact center of either side of the ball, horizontal to the ground, but spinning in the opposite direction.
As the ball travels toward the plate, the seams move downward across the front of it. This requires Cusick to move his fingers around the side of the ball even more than what is required for gyroscopic spin, to the point where his fingers are moving downward across the front of the ball as he releases it.
Supination vs. Pronation
Supination and pronation refer to the direction and degree to which a pitcher rotates his wrist and forearm. Applying supination or pronation to a pitch will most often sacrifice some amount of velocity in favor of some amount of movement. The exact type of movement, and the effect on velocity, depends on how the supinated or pronated release is being utilized – i.e. what type of spin it’s creating on the ball, and on what spin axis.
Supination is when a pitcher rotates his forearm such that his knuckles move toward the outside of the ball, and his palm moves toward an upward position. This creates glove-side cut on a pitch.
Pitches that feature supination include cutters, sliders, and curveballs, to name a few.
Pronation is the inverse of supination. When a pitcher pronates his arm, his wrist and forearm rotate in the other direction, finishing with his palm facing away from his body or toward the ground. This creates arm-side run on a pitch.
A non-comprehensive list of pronated pitches includes two-seamers, circle changeups, and screwballs.
Again, we’re only talking about the fundamentals here, when it comes to understanding pitch design. The fun part occurs when these elements are mixed and matched to create different types of pitches. Now that we’ve defined and illustrated our terms, we can move on to how these terms combine and commingle to make up a pitcher’s full arsenal, as well as which pitches are most and least open to interpretation. If sliders are scrambled eggs, for example, then knuckleballs are poached eggs; there’s only very slight variation in how pitchers throw them, and the output should be virtually the same from pitcher to pitcher, with mistakes being easy to spot. I look forward to digging into these comparisons and more in installments to come!
I continue to find Statcast’s bat tracking data fascinating. I also continue to find it overwhelming. Hitting is so complex that I can’t quite imagine boiling it down to just a few numbers. Even when I look at some of the more complex presentations of bat tracking, like squared-up rate, I sometimes can’t quite understand what it means.
I’ll give you an example: when I looked into Manny Machado’s early-season struggles last week, I found that he was squaring the ball up more frequently when he hit grounders than when he put the ball in the air. That sounds bad to me – hard grounders don’t really pay the bills. But I didn’t have much to compare it to, aside from league averages for those rates. And I didn’t have context for what shapes of squared-up rate work for various different successful batters.
What’s an analyst to do? If you’re like me in 2024, there’s one preferred option: ask my friendly neighborhood large language model to help me create a visual. I had an idea of what I wanted to do. Essentially, I wanted to create a chart that showed how a given hitter’s squared-up rate varied by launch angle. There’s a difference between squaring the ball up like Luis Arraez – line drives into the gap all day – and doing it like Machado. I hoped that a visual representation would make that a little clearer. Read the rest of this entry »
Colt Keith is searching for his comfort zone at baseball’s highest level. Currently day-to-day with a sore knee – which occurred during a collision over the weekend — the Detroit Tigers rookie infielder is slashing just .215/.269/.280. Moreover, belying his sturdy 6-foot-2, 245-pound frame and ability to propel pitches far distances, the 22-year-old has gone yard only twice in 201 plate appearances.
The potential for much more is unquestionably there. In January, Eric Longenhagen assigned Keith a 50 FV despite questions about his defense, pointing to the promising youngster’s “offensive prowess… rooted in his raw power.” Barely a week after those words were written, the Tigers signed Keith to a six-year contract worth $28.6 million — this despite his having yet to debut in the majors.
He was even farther away from The Show when I first talked to him late in the 2021 season. The 2020 fifth-round draft pick out of Mississippi’s Biloxi High School had recently been promoted to West Michigan, and whereas he’d been scorching the ball with Low-A Lakeland, he was at the time struggling to hold his head above water with the High-A Whitecaps. That he was scuffling came as little surprise to the self-aware slugger.
“For whatever reason, everything about my swing, and everything I know about baseball, seems to go out the window when I move up,” Keith told me at the time. “Then I have to restart and get used to the better pitching and to the speed of the game. Once I do that, I’m back in the groove.” Read the rest of this entry »
I’ve written about the Colorado Rockies so many times over the past two years that I think we can all take the normal disclaimer as read. They’re not very good, and they’re probably not going to be very good in the short or medium term.
However, there is some good news. Colorado has put quite a bit of faith in two young players who put up monster defensive numbers at up-the-middle positions: center fielder Brenton Doyle and shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. The latter signed a seven-year contract extension this spring. These guys are so good defensively it almost doesn’t matter if they hit at all. And that’s a fortunate coincidence, because last year, they didn’t hit at all.
That part wasn’t the good news. This is the good news: In 2024, Doyle and Tovar are hitting a little. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Houston Astros. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
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