FanGraphs Baseball

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Before homering last night in the first inning of a 3-2 loss to the Dodgers, Bryce Harper’s OPS had briefly fallen all the way below .900. And while that might seem like occasion to sound the alarms, let’s get one thing straight: Bryce Harper’s season numbers are still great. His OBP is still above .400, his power’s still been immense, and by wRC+, he’s still had as good a year as Nolan Arenado and the Seager boys.

But lately, things haven’t been right for the reigning MVP. A couple months ago, we had a post here on the site about how Harper was catching up to Mike Trout, and it was totally reasonable. And it still probably is, but over the last 30 days, Harper’s wRC+ is 80, his OBP the same as what Andrelton Simmons did last year, and he’s hit for as much power during that stretch as 2015 Kevin Pillar. It’s the most underwhelming Harper’s looked since the middle of 2014:

Y’know what’s not an ideal way to break out of a slump? Face Clayton Kershaw. Harper did that on Monday night, and he did not break out of the slump. No, he faced Kershaw three times, and he fanned three times.

Even with the recent slide, Harper’s still viewed as the best hitter in world, and the best hitter in the world facing the best pitcher in the world is always worth an examination. But there’s something about this particular matchup at this particular time that makes it all the more fascinating. See, something’s been happening to Harper lately. Rather, something’s been happening to the way Harper’s being pitched lately.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at New York NL | 13:10 ET
Duffy (54.0 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (85.0 IP, 53 xFIP-)
During Dave Cameron’s most recent appearance on FanGraphs Audio, he and the host discuss the difficulties inherent to manual pitch classification when the pitch classifier lacks the benefit of velocity readings. The Mets’ Noah Syndergaard illustrates the point. For example, consider: his average changeup velocity sits somewhere between 90 and 91 mph, the hardest among any starter who throws the pitch. Now consider more: that changeup velocity approaches the median average velocity of all the sinkers thrown by major-league starters this season. Changeups and sinkers generally feature more pronounced arm-side and downward movement than four-seam fastballs. So Syndergaard’s changeup, one finds, likely bears greater resemblance to the average sinker than it does a changeup. “How would I classify it?” the reader might ask while observing Syndergaard’s start. “What is the precise depth of my sadness?” is another popular question for any living person, too.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Episode 661
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he discusses the likely replacement level of analysts in major-league front offices, reveals some findings from a recent trip to MLB Advanced Media’s Manhattan offices, and speculates wildly on the future of Cuban free agent Yulieski Gourriel.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min play time.)

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Last week, I wrote about the dearth of production at the first-base position this season. In the piece, I highlighted Wil Myers as one of the few, young beacons of hope at the position and mentioned a few other young stars, but there was one notable guy I failed to mention: the Braves’ sole star-caliber position player, 26-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman. It wasn’t a slight on my part, but instead was a side effect of my awareness that Freeman was worthy of an entire post of his own. Well, the time has come. Let’s take a look at Freddie Freeman.

Freeman’s 2016 season started unbearably slowly. After homering in his first at-bat of the season, he went on to accumulate just two more extra-base hits – both doubles – over his next 81 plate appearances. After play on April 26th, he’d recorded a miserable 65 wRC+ and had been bumped down in the batting order from his typical spot in the three-hole. Fortunately for the Braves — who have Freeman under contract for $106.5 million from 2017 to 2021 — Freeman’s season quickly began to turn around. Entering play on Tuesday night, he had posted a .307/.379/.571 slash line — good for a 151 wRC+ — ever since his statistical nadir on April 26th.

His offensive production during the month of June has been among the best in the majors and has led to Freeman currently sporting the highest ISO figure (.211) of his career. On the strength of his power surge, it might appear that Freeman is well on his way to another predictably strong season, but it must be noted that not all indicators are trending in the right direction for Freeman.

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Josh Donaldson is a superstar. There’s not really any agreed-upon definition of what a superstar is or isn’t, but there are certain obvious candidates, and Donaldson is among them. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. Jose Bautista is probably also a superstar. He’s aging, sure, but he’s terrifying. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter, either. Edwin Encarnacion is a nightmare to face. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. Troy Tulowitzki has been one of the best all-around shortstops in recent baseball history. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. Russell Martin has been one of the better all-around catchers in recent baseball history. He hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ best hitter. The Blue Jays actually tried to trade away the guy who’s been their best hitter. Their best hitter has been Michael Saunders.

And to be clear about this, it’s not like all those Blue Jays have struggled. Donaldson has continued to be one of the very best players in the game. He’s amazing! Slugging .563. Super good. Saunders is slugging .596. We usually like to rank hitters by wRC+. Saunders hasn’t been David Ortiz, because no one has been David Ortiz, not this year. He leads baseball at 189. Daniel Murphy’s the current runner-up, at 163. Saunders is one of three players at 162. We’re approaching the halfway point, and Michael Saunders has been a top-five offensive force. Not bad for a Blue Jay who was nearly an Angel.

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Ben and Sam banter about Clayton Kershaw and clarify five-man infields, then discuss who would be on a baseball Mount Rushmore and dig through Sports Illustrated’s archives to pinpoint what makes Vin Scully so great.

Back in November, the Milwaukee acquired outfielder Ramon Flores from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Luis Sardinas. At first glance, that move seemed inconsequential enough — one fringe major leaguer for another. But Flores’ minor-league track record suggests he may not always be inconsequential. He hit a strong .308/.401/.454 as a 23-year-old in Triple-A last year and a respectable .247/.339/.443 at the same level in 2014. That was enough to put him 24th on KATOH’s pre-season top 100 list. Due to his underwhelming tools, however, most scouts thought he was, at best, a fourth outfielder.

Flores also came with a logistical caveat: since he was out of options, he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues without passing through waivers. It was far from obvious that Flores was up for the challenge of facing big-league pitching. Not only did he lack physicality and experience, but he was also recovering from a compound ankle fracture suffered last August. Nonetheless, the Brewers granted Flores a spot on their opening-day roster after he showed he was healthy in spring training. Early on, that decision looked somewhat questionable. In semi-regular playing time, Flores strung together several 0-fers in April, which contributed to an embarrassing .125/.205/.125 stat line through April 28th.

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Between 2013 – 2015, Adrian Gonzalez slugged .474. So far this year, Gonzalez has slugged .382. What’s going on? This one’s easy. Three years ago, Gonzalez didn’t hit many grounders. He ranked in baseball’s bottom fourth. Two years ago, Gonzalez didn’t hit many grounders. He ranked in baseball’s bottom fourth. One year ago, Gonzalez didn’t hit many grounders. He ranked in baseball’s bottom fourth. This year, Gonzalez has hit too many grounders. He ranks in baseball’s upper fifth. You don’t hit for power when you’re hitting these grounders.

Of course, that doesn’t so much answer the question as simply rephrase it. Instead of wondering where the power went, now it’s a matter of wondering where the grounders are coming from. This one also seems easy. Gonzalez’s back has hurt. Ever hurt your back? Makes it hard to do things. Makes it hard to get out of bed, nevermind slug a 95 mile-per-hour fastball. Not that all back injuries are alike, but Gonzalez has talked about this one. It makes all the sense in the world that his numbers would be worse because he’s physically compromised. To his credit, he still hasn’t been an offensive zero. But it’s fair to wonder if we’re going to see normal Gonzalez at all.

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