Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 9/2/15

11:57
Paul Sporer: We’ll get started shortly, y’all!

11:57
Comment From Tony
Hi, Paul.

11:57
Comment From Reginald Denton III
What’s up with Scherzer? Is he due for a good start against the Cards tonight?

11:58
Paul Sporer: Too many HRs lately. It’s correctable. It’s not like we’re seeing a collapse of skills so I’m not all that worried, but HRs sting and that’s what we’re seeing outta Max. I don’t know what’s causing them, but they are definitely behind his struggles

11:58
Comment From Anthony
How would you set up the Mets pitching staff for the playoffs?

11:58
Paul Sporer: Good question. I’d imagine deGrom, Harvey, Thor, and Colon. I could see them putting Colon in between Harvey & Thor because he’s such a change of pace from the two power pitchers.

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Three At-Bats with Brandon Moss

In a slump, the mental and physical combine to confuse, and the player ends up in a spiral. “You go up to the plate and you think about your weaknesses, and you start focusing on them, and you start chasing,” Brandon Moss said before a game against the Giants, adding “it all starts to spin around.” Since having offseason hip surgery, the Cardinals’ slugger has been spinning in both facets of the game.

A recent tear might be the result of getting right, though. An adjustment to his mechanics, a milestone in his workouts, and a slight tweak to his approach all recently came together. The result looks more like the Moss that averaged 33 home runs for every 600 plate appearances coming into this season.

To illustrate how he’s gotten his game back together, there might not be a better way than to have Moss take us through three plate appearances against Rubby de la Rosa last week. The pitcher got the better of him once, but when the batter did his damage, it was the result of a convergence of factors.

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NERD Game Scores for Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Houston | 20:10 ET
Walker (153.0 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (154.0 IP, 94 xFIP-)
Baseball, in its current recognizable state, is roughly 150 years old — nor do the various earlier permutations of the sport appear to extend back much further than 1840. The Western sporting tradition, meanwhile, can be traced at least as far back as 776 BCE, i.e. the year of the first Olympic games. Broadly speaking, then, it’s not entirely inaccurate to suggest that baseball has existed for roughly 5% of all sporting history. As a sort of spiritual exercise, contemplate that figure while observing tonight’s game. Also contemplate, if you have time left over or whatever, the wonderful improbability of the Astros’ season.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Ryan Goins Is the New Reason We’ll Never Understand Baseball

So, I’m browsing around Twitter. I’m not looking for anything in particular, but then something catches my eye. It isn’t a tweet — it’s a trend, based on a series of tweets, happening somewhere outside of my circle. You know how trends work. The thing I saw Tuesday evening:

goins-twitter

I’m not unaccustomed to seeing baseball topics pop up over there. They tend to mirror the ongoing action, and sometimes the trends are accompanied by featured links to stories. This one linked to an article from Jeff Blair. The teaser is something made just for me: It suggests a change in performance, following a change in approach. I’m a total sucker for that genre. I’m fascinated by stories of baseball players who work hard to make themselves better. What was throwing me in this case was the name. I consider myself prepared for most players to improve.

This is about Ryan Goins.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/1/15

3:39
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to answer your baseballing question. Feel free to ask me about the giant leap my son’s swing took today. Or you know, pennant races and stuff. It’s all good. See you soon!

9:01
Paul Swydan: Ok, let’s do this.

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: OK Brave Star

9:01
Paul Swydan: Brave Star?

9:02
9:04
Paul Swydan: Dude, WHAT was that?

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Why Mike Trout Ain’t Right

The Angels ascended to first place in the AL West in the final game before the All-Star break. A week and a half later, they had a two-game lead, and since that point, they’ve lost the two-game lead, and then several more games beyond that, in a team-wide collapse that’s threatened to leave the Angels on the outside of the playoff picture. They’ve lost 26 of 37, losing 9.5 games in the standings to the Astros, and 12.5 to the Rangers. Over the span, they’re last in the AL in runs scored. Over the span, they’re second-to-last in the AL in runs allowed. The season can still be salvaged — clearly, things can change in a jiffy — but this has been a nightmare stretch, lasting nearly a quarter of the season. It’s hard to survive a lost quarter.

Obviously, in a slump like this, several parties are partly responsible. A team doesn’t sink based on one or two players. But, generally, when a team sinks, people don’t look to blame players like, say, Erick Aybar. They don’t blame players like Hector Santiago. They look to the stars who aren’t pulling their weight, and one can’t help but note that Mike Trout hasn’t quite produced like himself. Like many of his teammates, Trout’s been in a rut, and that’s done more than just open the MVP race to Josh Donaldson. As Trout’s concerned, there are questions, and I feel like it’s my obligation to try to answer them as best I can. I know my role, here.

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Yankees Perform Increasingly Rare Feat, Win with Age

Since the New York Yankees’ incredible five-year run at the end of the last century, which saw the club win four titles with a youth-filled core, the Yankees have long been seen as an aging group of veteran free-agent purchases. Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, and Alex Rodriguez supplemented Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera as the group entered their 30s. Whether that perception was fair or merely irrelevant, the club remained successful for much of the last decade as players aged slowly and made great contributions into their 30s. As Major League Baseball got younger, though, the Yankees’ core aged without young replacements on the farm. It appeared as though the Yankees might have a rough couple of years when, after the club missed the playoffs in 2013, ownership tried to reduce payroll below $189 million in attempt to save millions in salary cap money and revenue sharing.

As sometimes happens, though, the Yankees’ owners appeared to change their mind and a spending spree in the winter of 2013 brought in free agents Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran, as well as the acquisition of Masahiro Tanaka in order to compete in 2014. That effort fell short as injuries, age, and the missing production of Alex Rodriguez all took their toll on the franchise and the team fell short of the playoffs. In 2015, the team’s elder batsmen — Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran — have remained healthy for much of the season and led the way for an offense sporting a 107 wRC+, second only to the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League.

Mark Teixeira had been having a phenomenal year prior to his recent injury, Alex Rodriguez has been strong in his return from suspension, and Carlos Beltran has recovered nicely from a very poor start to the season. All three are among the very best in the league among position players 35 years old and older this season.

Best 2015 Seasons by Players at Least 35 Years of Age
Name Team AVG OBP SLG wRC+ WAR Age
Mark Teixeira Yankees .255 .357 .548 145 2.9 35
Adrian Beltre Rangers .273 .314 .427 96 2.7 36
Alex Rodriguez Yankees .257 .363 .489 133 2.3 39
David Ortiz Red Sox .264 .352 .515 128 1.9 39
Albert Pujols Angels .247 .305 .493 121 1.8 35
Juan Uribe Braves .254 .318 .418 103 1.7 36
A.J. Pierzynski Braves .293 .333 .424 107 1.7 38
Carlos Beltran Yankees .282 .344 .480 125 1.6 38
Matt Holliday Cardinals .290 .409 .420 132 1.2 35

The above list constitutes every player 35 and older with at least one win above replacement on the season. Just a decade ago, there were double that amount, and two previous years had a dozen players each. The Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies are the only teams with more than 1,000 plate appearances from players at least 35 years old, and the Yankees’ 6.8 WAR from those players is more than double the second-place Braves — and actually higher than the rest of MLB combined (6.6 WAR).

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Projecting the Prospects Traded on August 31

Since players acquired on or after September 1 are not eligible for their new team’s playoff roster, we saw a small flurry of trades come down the pike last night. The Cubs traded for Austin Jackson, the Royals landed Jonny Gomes, the Giants swung a deal for Alejandro De Aza and the Dodgers acquired Justin Ruggiano and Chris Heisey in separate deals. The Jackson, Ruggiano and Heisey deals all involve the infamous player to be named later, meaning we don’t yet know who’s headed in the other direction. However, the Gomes and De Aza deals both included players who will join their new organizations immediately. Here’s a glimpse at what we might expect from these two players down the road. (Note: WAR figures, unless otherwise specified, indicate total WAR through age-28 season.)

Luis Valenzuela, Atlanta Braves, 5.3 WAR

The Royals sent 22-year-old infielder Luis Valenzuela to Atlanta in the Jonny Gomes deal. After hitting a weak .234/.289/.338 in Rookie-level ball from 2012 to 2014, it appears as though something may have clicked for Valenzuela this year. In 56 games, with all but eight of them coming in Low-A, Valenzuela’s hit .358/.380/.495. His lofty .404 BABIP surely explains much of this success, but his combination of contact (14% strikeout rate), power (.137 ISO) and speed (nine steals in 11 attempts) makes him mildly interesting.

KATOH really likes what Valenzuela’s done this year, and as a result, projects him for 5.3 WAR through age 28, which would have put him 54th on KATOH’s list. (At the time, he did not hit my admittedly arbitrary 200-plate-appearance threshold). Despite the optimism, though, my system gives him just a 56% chance of making the majors, suggesting that there’s a very strong chance he flames out completely. In sum, Valenzuela’s done some impressive things this year, but the onus will be on him next year to prove it’s not a fluke. Here are his top Mahalanobis comps, which include notable middle infielders Ronnie Belliard and Scooter Gennett.

Luis Valenzuela Statistical Comps
Rank Mah Dist Name PA thru 28 WAR thru 28
1 0.67 Ryan Long 10 0.0
2 0.70 Joe Mathis 0 0.0
3 0.82 Jason Camilli 0 0.0
4 0.85 Tim Smith 0 0.0
5 0.97 Yung-Chi Chen 0 0.0
6 0.97 Ron Acuna 0 0.0
7 1.06 Yahmed Yema 0 0.0
8 1.07 Alejandro Giron 0 0.0
9 1.08 Ronnie Belliard 2,435 5.4
10 1.12 Justin Bloxom* 0 0.0
11 1.23 Scooter Gennett* 999 4.0
12 1.28 Rafael Guerrero 0 0.0
13 1.32 Mike Murphy 0 0.0
14 1.34 Chase Mulvehill 0 0.0
15 1.36 Casey Haerther* 0 0.0
16 1.37 Teuris Olivares 0 0.0
17 1.42 Mark Quinn 1,166 2.3
18 1.44 Danny Bautista 1,417 1.6
19 1.52 Ronald Garth 0 0.0
20 1.54 Wilkin Castillo 37 0.0
*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 seasons

*****

Luis Ysla, Boston Red Sox, 0.4 WAR

In exchange for De Aza, the Giants sent hard-throwing lefty Luis Ysla to Boston. Ysla spent all of 2015 pitching at the High-A level, where he’s split time between the rotation and the bullpen. On the surface, Ysla’s 2015 numbers look pretty poor: 6.21 ERA and 4.52 FIP. But it’s worth noting that he’s performed noticeably better out of the bullpen than as a starter (4.50 ERA vs. 8.81 ERA). Furthermore, since a pitcher’s strikeout rate is the most predictive metric for pitchers in the low minors, Ysla’s 25% strikeout rate (27% as a reliever) makes him somewhat intriguing. However, as a 23-year-old who’s yet to master A-ball, Ysla is extremely fringy.

KATOH pegs Ysla for 0.4 WAR through age 28, with just a 19% chance of even making it to the big leagues. His 2014 numbers from Low-A yielded a similar forecast of 0.8 WAR. His Mahalanobis comps also leave a lot to be desired. Basically, its Brandon Medders, a future backup NFL quarterback and very little else.

Luis Ysla Statistical Comps
Rank Mah Dist Name IP thru 28 WAR thru 28
1 2.18 Robbie Crabtree 0 0
2 2.63 Jean Machi 0 0
3 3.23 Fraser Dizard 0 0
4 3.35 Juan Lara 6 0
5 3.42 Erik Plantenberg 42 0
6 3.52 Dave Wolensky 0 0
7 3.57 Brandon Medders 151 0.4
8 3.75 Dave Bird 0 0
9 3.78 Mario Alvarez 0 0
10 3.89 Scott Freeman 0 0
11 4.24 Jose Rosario* 0 0
12 4.29 Korey Keling 0 0
13 4.33 Brian Lockwood 0 0
14 4.38 Kevin Logsdon 0 0
15 4.41 Alvie Shepherd 0 0
16 4.43 Jeremy Blevins 0 0
17 4.45 Brandon Weeden 0 0
18 4.52 Craig Italiano* 0 0
19 4.63 Dave Nolasco 0 0
20 4.64 Garvin Alston 6 0
*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 seasons

NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Los Angeles NL | 18:10 ET
Bumgarner (175.2 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Greinke (179.1 IP, 82 xFIP-)
This game — or, at least, the result of this game — doesn’t possess the sort of postseason implications that others of today’s do. The Blue Jays and Yankees, for example, remain separated by only 1.5 games in the AL East. The stakes for them, perpetually, are large — either playing in or bypassing the wild-card game. The Giants, meanwhile, currently feature somewhere in the vicinity of an 8% to 17% chance of reaching the divisional series, depending on the methodology one consults. They’re likely not to reach the postseason, it seems. Nor will a victory tonight — even against the division-leading Dodgers — alter that state of affairs greatly. A victory today would, however, create greater implications for tomorrow’s game. It would, in a sense, cultivate the possibility of something marvelous. This sort of possibility holds considerable appeal — if only because the human mind is poorly constructed to understand its improbability.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/1/15

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t worry

12:09
Comment From GRANDPA
KILEY YOU’RE LATE

12:09
Kiley McDaniel: Good to hear from you, internet

12:09
Comment From Mark
Comments on the Nationals bringing Trea Turner up without giving him playing time?

12:11
Kiley McDaniel: Talked about it on the podcast this week. On the face, it doesn’t make much sense when he could get regular AAA at bats for a few more weeks, but the fact that he’s likely the opening day starter next year means there’s a little more urgency to see him around the big leagues and gauge his mental readiness.

And, since they’re in a race and can’t play him everyday, it would take longer than 4 weeks for him to get a true 4-week experience in the big leagues. That’s me trying to figure out why WSH did it this way and you can kinda see where they’re going.

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