As a counter to the idea that baseball is complicated and unpredictable: sometimes, baseball can seem ever so easy to understand. Not long ago, the Blue Jays traded for Troy Tulowitzki, perhaps or probably the very best shortstop. Shortly thereafter, the Jays also traded for David Price, easily one of the very best starting pitchers. Since Tulowitzki joined the lineup, the Jays have gone 11-1, and the one loss was a Tulowitzki day off. Over the weekend, the Jays pulled closer to the Yankees by sweeping them in their own stadium. Why wouldn’t that happen? Two superstars were added to what was already a pretty good club. Pretty good + superstars = even better! We’ve figured this game out.

The Jays have eaten up ground faster than anyone could’ve reasonably imagined. Sometimes there are concerns that adding pieces at the deadline can disrupt a clubhouse atmosphere, but all the lights are green in Toronto, and the probabilities that encouraged Alex Anthopoulos to act aggressively have only gotten significantly more positive, validating the moves that were made. The Jays are built to bludgeon, but they’ve also meaningfully improved the pitching staff, with everything clicking about perfectly at the moment. The question now needs to be asked: how good is this team? When a team’s on a winning streak, it’s almost impossible to imagine it losing. The Jays will lose, and they’ll do it several times. But is any other team positioned to lose less?

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It will be a challenge for the 2015 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team (CNT) to match what the previous two editions of the club have achieved in terms of the draft. The 2014 CNT produced 10 first-rounders in this year’s draft, including five of the top six college players taken as well as four of the top six picks overall. The 2013 CNT also produced 10 first-rounders.

That’s why ranking the top-20 prospects on Team USA isn’t an easy exercise. The majority of the players have the tools to land in the first round, so there are a few places on this list where the talent runs together. Nevertheless, the obvious strength of this year’s team was power arms with pitchability. The weakness was the lack of impact middle infielders.

Because of the length of this feature, we decided to split the list into two parts. The top 10 prospects will be coming tomorrow.

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All it takes is a game like the one Noah Syndergaard had over the weekend — five runs in four innings despite six strikeouts against two walks — to be reminded that even a Norse God has to maintain his game by refining it. Though Syndergaard’s curve is already a top-ten hammer by whiffs, he’s been working on it. And he might be adding a new baby weapon to go along with it.

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This article was originally developed as an oral presentation given by the author to the Society for American Baseball Research at their SABR 45 Convention in Chicago on June 27, 2015. The presentation, which featured the innovative use of video, audio and transitional animation embedded within a PowerPoint deck, was awarded the annual Doug Pappas Research Award as the best of the 32 oral presentations made during the convention that weekend.

This article has been repurposed from that deck. Since the Retrosheet play-by-play data on which this study was predicated were updated just days before the original presentation, all the data provided during the oral presentation have been updated for this article.

Let’s start off this article the way I started off my presentation to SABR: with a quick poll. And you might as well be honest, now, because otherwise you’re just bullshitting yourself, and that would just be pathetic.

• How many of you played Little League when you were a kid? Hands up, please. OK… keep them up. Now:
• How many of you ever hit a home run in a Little League game? If you did, keep your hands up. OK… now, finally:
• How many of you hit an actual home run clear over the outfielders’ heads and were able to trot all the way around the bases in a Little League game?

Not so many of you, right? Only the very best players on any given Little League team ever hit that kind of home run. If you’re like me, and like most Little Leaguers, if you ever hit a home run in Little League, this is what it probably looked like this:

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As we head into mid-August, there are roughly 50 games left for each team on the schedule, and we’re reaching the point of the season where we can begin to cull the list of potential candidates for the three major awards. So, today, let’s take a look at the legitimate MVP candidates in both leagues, and handicap how this might play out over the next six weeks.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Ross (45.0 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. Greinke (152.1 IP, 83 xFIP-)
Both Washington rookie Joe Ross and also San Diego right-hander Tyson Ross, who are brothers, feature sliders which currently sit within the league’s top ten by linear-weight runs among all starters — a notable accomplishment, especially, in the case of the former Ross, who’s recorded fewer than 50 major-league innings this season. Were the author capable of it, he would craft a long-form narrative piece exploring the implications of a family genetically predisposed to mastering this one pitch, considering both the practical kinetic explanations and also the more profound, nearly mystical, fraternal ones. Lacking both of skill and also tolerance for the sort of precision required by such an endeavor, however, what I’ve done instead is merely to produce this paragraph which invokes the possibility of such a piece. Less substantial, that, but also much less tedious for everyone involved.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Last week, I wrote a post asking whether Carlos Correa might already be the best shortstop in baseball. There is no consensus opinion on that one — a big group of people think he just might be, and another big group of people don’t think he’s proven enough. That’s all totally fine; it wouldn’t be an interesting question if we absolutely knew the answer. The main point is there’s a chance; Correa has been that outstanding. Since the All-Star break, for example, he’s tied for sixth among all position players in WAR. The guy he’s tied with is sometimes-shortstop Jung-ho Kang.

I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that Kang might be the best shortstop in baseball. He hasn’t performed at the level for long enough, nor does he quite have the defensive profile. Increasingly, however, it’s becoming clear that Kang was a hell of a find. His second-half offense has been about on par with Josh Donaldson and Chris Davis. Kang, in his rookie season, has shown several signs of promising development. The easiest possible explanation for each? It’s noise. Total randomness, devoid of any meaning. But I’m going to offer an easy alternate explanation. Kang seemingly keeps getting better. Maybe it’s obvious why.

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