FanGraphs Baseball

The American League edition of this post was published yesterday and can be found right here.

The goal here is to find the positions, before free agency really kicks off, that most need an improvement. I fear that I wasn’t quite clear enough in yesterday’s post — these are based on the 2016 Steamer projections and our in-house depth charts. They’re ranked by standard deviations above or below the mean for WAR, specific to each position. That’s why the order isn’t simply total WAR in descending order, because the average is different for each position.

It’s possible this one might be a bit of a letdown. See, the goal was to attempt to find areas that need addressed through free agency or perhaps a big offseason trade. In the American League, it worked, because basically every team in the AL is a contender, or a move or two away from being a contender, so things like the Angels’ left field spot, the Royals second baseman and the Tigers’ bullpen fit the bill of what we were looking for.

In the National League, though, there are just some bad teams. Bad teams that were bad last year, are going to be bad this year, and are bad enough all-around to where it just doesn’t make sense, yet, to fill their holes with big moves. A lot of this list ended up being bad positions on bad teams that may or may not be addressed, but I did the post yesterday so I’ve kinda gotta do the follow-up today.

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(Dis)honorable mentions: Padres third base, Braves third base, Reds left field, Phillies right field, Brewers second base, Rockies second base, Brewers shortstop, Diamondbacks bullpen, Braves second base, Braves rotation.

#10 Rockies – 1B

After declining a $9 million club option on Justin Morneau, who appeared in just 49 games last year due to recurring concussion issues, the Rockies are left with essentially the same collection of players that produced the second-lowest wRC+ of any team’s first basemen in the league last year. Outside of catcher, the rest of Colorado’s lineup is pretty well-set, so it’s potential this need is addressed, but pitching is clearly the team’s top priority, and so an Opening Day Paulsen-Rosario platoon isn’t out of the question.

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“I had a good year last year, but this year I wanted to separate myself,” Kevin Kiermaier told me in August before a game with the Athletics. And separate himself he did, since he just won a Gold Glove after leading all defensive players in the SABR Defensive Index rankings, UZR/150, and Defensive Runs Saved. We talked about how he honed his craft on the way to the defensive triple crown, and it’s a little bit instincts, a little bit scouting, and a little bit athleticism.

This year, Kiermaier he’s one of the few outfielders to have had a nearly-perfect route (99% efficiency) according to Statcast. Some of that is just gut. “I just let my instincts take over out there, as well,” the Rays’ center fielder said. “That’s something I’ve always been blessed with, I just feel like I have a really good idea of where the ball’s going to be hit.”

But press him a little on that, and there are a few things he does in order to help get into the right routes. He reads the catcher’s signs, for one, so that he can anticipate better where the ball is going. “I can see them usually from center field, since I have good vision,” he said. “I can see what pitches are going to be thrown, and I feel like I can get a head start on what direction that ball is going to be hit.”

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Jerry Dipoto has a plan. Importantly, he also has the autonomy to implement it. Free from the shackles of Anaheim, he’s now able to do his own thing, with his own people, in Seattle. That’s good news for Mariners’ fans.

Dipoto is doing more than simply replacing Jack Zduriencik as Seattle’s general manager. He’s enacting philosophical change. The erstwhile Angels GM is a former player with a scouting background, but he’s also one of the most analytically inclined front office executives in the game. The Mariners will be many things under Dipoto’s leadership; backwards isn’t one of them.

Dipoto shared his vision for the team during this week’s GM meetings in Boca Raton.

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DiPoto on the organization’s change of philosophy: “The philosophy I’m bringing over here is pretty different. I respect Jack Zduriencik – he’s had a wonderful baseball career and I’m sure he’ll continue to have one – but we’ll do things differently than he did. We see things through a different lens. I’m not going to tell you exactly how, because then it’s no longer an advantage, but it is significantly different. Regarding [the Angels], it would be fair to say that this is a different environment for me.”

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Ben and Sam talk to BP author Jeff Quinton about how baseball teams could benefit from design thinking.

The General Managers meetings continued today, and I once again had an opportunity to speak to several of them. You’ll hear from some of the GMs in detail over the coming week, beginning with Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto tomorrow. In the meantime, I’ll follow up on yesterday’s five snapshots with five more:

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Al Avila, Tigers: “There’s the addition of our new analytics department that we’re in the process of creating. That will help us make some decisions in a different manner. It’s not going to be huge, like 20 people, or anything like that. Right now, it will probably be three guys in the office, and a couple of consultants outside of the office, with the addition of some interns.”

Mike Chernoff, Indians: “It’s by no means a given that we’ll trade a starter. It’s a strength of our club, so we get asked about it a lot. Teams see the depth there, and we’re in a fortunate position to have that depth. But we want to build around it. We’re not looking to move major league pieces.

“Because we’re a small market club, we have to be creative and opportunistic in how we think about trades, and how we think about balancing out our team. So we’re always open to anything, but we’re not coming in here looking to move a pitcher.”

Rick Hahn, White Sox: “As for what mechanisms we use to evaluate our defensive performance, it’s all factored in there. Fundamentally, you go back to what your eyes are showing you. At the same time, we’re very well aware of what the objective data is showing, whether it’s from a Defensive Runs Saved standpoint, or a conversion-of-balls-in-play-into-outs standpoint. We also look at the more advanced, and the recent StatCast data. All of those arrows are pointing in the same direction; they’re all giving the same consistent message: Our defense was not at the level we needed it to be.”

Dave Stewart, Diamondbacks: “I don’t think anybody has a blueprint. I’ve been a part of some good staffs, but to say you have a blueprint for build a pitching staff, I don’t think there’s such a thing.

“Right now, we have a nice young pitching staff, and ideally you’d like to complement those guys with similar guys. At the same point, when you’re young and you don’t really have leadership, sometimes you want to look for a guy that’s a little more of a veteran. You want somebody who can put his hand print, and his foot print, on these guys to show them how to get the job done.”

Dick Williams, Reds: “I’ll just say that I’m really impressed by his understanding of his game. A lot has been made of how much Joey (Votto) understands advanced statistics. But I don’t think people should forget how much time he spends working on his baseball. Apart from the theories, he’s as diligent as anyone I know when it comes to finding flaws, and fixing them mechanically.”

You’re forgiven if you don’t much care about Wednesday’s swap of Aaron Hicks for JR Murphy. Maybe you’re not a fan of the Twins or the Yankees. Maybe you’re not a fan of baseball at all, and you somehow wound up here by accident. Or maybe you are a fan of the Twins or the Yankees, but you recognize this as a trade featuring two players with less than 2 combined WAR over more than 1,200 plate appearances. Hicks has been probably the more hyped of the two, but Murphy is the younger of the two, and he seems like a backup. This isn’t on the level of Brad Miller and Nate Karns, and even that wasn’t on the level of something truly big.

These are the moves we have available to discuss, though, and if you want to speak generally, every professional baseball player has a compelling story. They’re all tremendously talented, and they’ve all dreamed of big-league success. If you want to speak specifically, Hicks is interesting, and I’d rate his level of interest above-average. He’s a former top prospect who’s trying to recover from initial struggles, and the most recent year saw him take a step forward. As far as this trade is concerned, it’s important to understand 2015 Aaron Hicks, and what follows are three keys to fully grasping the Hicks campaign. What he was in 2014, he wasn’t this summer.

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In meeting with the press recently, Rob Manfred mentioned a “fun fact” that the small-market Kansas City Royals boasted a bigger payroll than the big-market New York Mets. That fact might not be quite as fun for Mets fans who want their club to spend “commensurate with the economic resources available to them,” to use the commissioner’s words. With increased revenue from higher attendance, a playoff run, and rising projected attendance in 2016, the Mets could be poised to increase attendance, but if they choose to keep the status quo with salaries, they might not have a lot of maneuverability in free agency this winter.

Earlier this week, I took a look at all the American League teams and their current payroll situations as we head into free agency. This post repeats the same exercise for those teams in the National League. When determining a team’s payroll, first we need to look at every team’s guarantees heading into the 2016 season. To nobody’s surprise, the Dodgers have a commanding lead, per Cot’s Contracts.

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While it’s not going down as any kind of blockbuster, the Twins and Yankees struck a deal today, with Minnesota sending outfielder Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher JR Murphy.

Hicks, a former highly though of prospect, finally showed some signs of life in 2015, putting up +1.5 WAR in 97 games after getting called back up from Triple-A. The improvement primarily came from his ability to avoid strikeouts, which looks to be potentially caused by a new-found willingness to swing at pitches in the strike zone; his in-zone swing rate jumped to 66%, significantly higher than it had been in his first two runs through the big leagues. With enough power to not just be a slap hitter and a good enough eye to draw some walks, Hicks profiles as something like a league average hitter going forward; Steamer projects him for a 99 wRC+ in 2016.

With some baserunning value and decent enough defense in center field, that makes Hicks a potentially interesting piece. In fact, if you look at the Steamer600 projections, where playing time is equalized for all players, you’ll note that Hicks looks like the kind of outfielder the Yankees have shown affinity for.

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This is the second piece in a two-part series previewing the upcoming 2016 collective bargaining negotiations between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association. Part I of the series examined the new leadership dynamic at MLB and the MLBPA, various economic issues (including the players’ declining share of league revenues, the qualifying offer system, and service time manipulation), and possible changes to the league’s Joint Drug Agreement.

In this post, I will be looking at bargaining issues related to the draft (international and domestic), along with various pace-of-play and scheduling issues, before offering a preliminary assessment of the likelihood that a work stoppage will impact the 2017 season.

International Draft

Since taking office, Rob Manfred has repeatedly suggested that one of his top priorities as commissioner is to implement a worldwide MLB draft, in one form or another (whether it be holding a single draft for all domestic and international prospects, or alternatively creating a separate draft for international players). As a result, one can safely assume that reaching an agreement on a “single method of entry into the game” – as Manfred likes to say – will undoubtedly be a top priority for MLB in the coming negotiations.

It is unclear whether the MLBPA will be willing to agree to subject international players to a draft, however. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite producing the same winning percentage as Colorado, Milwaukee and Oakland survive on run differential.