FanGraphs Baseball

It would be easy to argue Anthony Rizzo hasn’t gotten better. It wouldn’t even be an insult — last year’s version of Rizzo was super good. Not many people could improve on that. The wRC+? Down, from 155 to 147. The defense remains above-average. Rizzo seems like the same player. And he is, as a matter of fact, still quite similar.

But it’s also pretty easy to argue Rizzo’s taken a bit of a step forward. He’s given back nothing in terms of power. He’s given back nothing in terms of walks. He’s trimmed his strikeouts by 20%. The only reason his numbers aren’t up is BABIP, and, you know how that goes. Additionally, there’s this — there are 226 players who have batted at least 250 times in each of the last two years. Here are this year’s biggest increases in average fastball velocity seen:

• Anthony Rizzo, +1.5 miles per hour
• Justin Smoak, +1.2
• Chris Coghlan, +1.1
• Yoenis Cespedes, +1.1
• Cody Asche, +1.0

There’s not a perfect relationship between fastball velocity and pitcher quality, but overall, velocity correlates well with effectiveness. So what this suggests is that, this year, compared to last year, Rizzo has faced stronger opponents. Stronger opponents, with similar overall numbers and a reduced strikeout rate? That sure seems like a better player.

Read the rest of this entry »

Barry Zito is coming back! Zito, who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors since 2013, has been called up from Triple-A by the A’s. He’ll initially work out of the bullpen — which makes sense because what bullpen doesn’t need an old guy with no command who throws really slow? — but the A’s are so out of playoff contention they may as well clone an entire Zito army and deploy it in relief. “Looks like Clone Zito doesn’t have it tonight, and here’s Bob Melvin to make a change. He’s signaling for the left-hander, and here comes Clone Zito trolling in from the pen. This pitching change is sponsored by Firestone tires, by Zippo lighters, and by Shell Gasoline.”

I mention that so I can mention this: I wonder if Barry Zito can throw the slowest fastball this season? Zito is renowned for his fastball velocity like Metallica is renowned for their depth and subtlety. Back in 2007, Zito’s fastball reached 93 mph, but over the years he lost velocity like a ship made of chicken wire loses buoyancy. In his most recent season, 2013, his four-seamer averaged 82.6 mph with a high of 85.6 mph and a low of…

[Drum roll]

…

[More drum roll]

…

Read the rest of this entry »

When discussing Bryce Harper’s year, the challenge is not to try and show that it’s been great. Rather, the challenge is to show how great his season has been. Harper leads the National League in home runs, and he leads all of major league baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, as well. The last player to lead the majors in every triple-slash category was Barry Bonds in his 13-win 2002 season. Only a lack of RBI will prevent Harper from winning a traditional Triple Crown. Perhaps the most impressive number for Harper this season is 204 — that his, his current weighted batting line (wRC+) where 100 equals average. Harper is seeking to become only the 12th player in the last 100 years to hit the 200 makr, and only the 10th in a non-strike season, potentially joining Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds.

Before getting to wRC+, a discussion of Harper’s offensive runs above average should be helpful to frame the discussion. Harper’s offensive runs above average this season, shortened to “Off” on the FanGraphs leaderboards and player pages, is 74.2 — currently the 53rd-best mark over the past 100 seasons — and he will have shot to get in the top 40 by the end of the year. Off is a counting number and, due to its fairly direct relationship with wRC+ (Off adds BsR), we can get a general idea of how many runs different wRC+ is worth. From the FanGraphs Glossary:

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects. League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

The chart below shows Off, wRC+ for a small collection of players this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s almost that time of year again, when individual hardware is bestowed on the best players in each league, complete with the requisite hue and cry from constituencies exhorting the merits of their respective choices. In general, I tend to not get too worked up about such things, but will dip my toe into such discussions when my interest is piqued. Last year, I thought that Felix Hernandez deserved to win a close decision over Corey Kluber in the AL Cy Young race. This year, the NL Cy race is a particularly interesting one, a three-way dogfight among Dodgers Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw and Cub Jake Arrieta. Today, let’s utilize the batted-ball data at our disposal and try to make a call on this exciting race.

For the two Dodger aces, this is not their first Cy Young rodeo: Kershaw has won the award in three of the last four seasons, and Greinke won one with the Royals back in 2009. As for Arrieta, well, this is the first time he has even pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Kershaw, 27, and Greinke, 32, were slam-dunk, top-half-of-the-first-round high school blue chippers. Though Greinke has had some unique roadblocks along the way to perennial excellence, there likely aren’t many scouts who’ve watched either him or Kershaw from the beginning who are very surprised by what either has accomplished in the game.

Arrieta, 30, on the other hand, was a humble fifth-round Oriole draft pick out of TCU in 2007 who had previously been drafted out of high school and junior college. His progress through the minors was glacial compared to his Dodger peers, and he was eventually, famously dealt from the O’s to the Cubs along with Pedro Strop in exchange for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman in the summer of 2013. Now Clevenger has done a nice job for the Orioles of late, but I’d still surmise that they would like to have a do-over on this deal.

Read the rest of this entry »

12:06

Comment From Eddie Brock Hello Eno

Read the rest of this entry »

“So you’re just studying oddity pitchers,” said Zach Britton over my shoulder as I took our conversation over to Darren O’Day. I bristled at the word oddity, because it implied some sort of freak-show gawking. “No! I’m into pitching, and you guys have interesting pitches,” was my earnest response. Eventually, most of the Orioles bullpen was in our scrum, talking pitching and pitches.

He wasn’t wrong, though. At the heart of that bullpen are three very… odd pitches. And checking out the three of them can teach us something about arm action.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Texas | 20:05 ET
McCullers (101.2 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Lewis (184.0 IP, 115 xFIP-)
It’s very possible that Houston both was and also remains a more talented ball club than division rival Texas. What they’ve done over the first three games of this series, however, is lose all of them. The result: a serious decline in the probability of winning that division, as illustrated by the following table.

AL West Division Odds, 2015

Club	Before Series	Now	Diff
Texas	22.0%	58.1%	+36.1%
Houston	73.7%	39.2%	-34.5%

The lesson: talent — and even talent applied earnestly — isn’t sufficient for success. Whether this is reassuring for the reader or disappointing reveals the camp with which he or she most clearly identifies.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

You’re a bright, available general-manager candidate. Not only that, but you’ve also scored a bunch of interviews. Congratulations! There are six teams out there that appear to be looking for a new GM, and you’re going to talk with all of them. Even the Marlins, who are super weird about everything. You know you’re ready. You know you’re prepared, and you feel pretty good about every individual chance. You don’t know how the teams are going to feel about you, but you feel like you should arrange your own priority list. Where would you like to go the most? Where would you like to go the least?

I should mention, you’re extremely flexible. Perhaps you knew that about yourself. It doesn’t really matter the city in which you end up employed. You love the beach, you love beer, you love hiking, and for some reason you love traffic (listening to podcasts?). And besides, you’re so devoted to your potential future job that you don’t anticipate all that much downtime anyhow. You’re either single, or your very understanding partner is like, “sure, anywhere’s good.” You evidently have family all over the place. Varying costs of living? Not on your radar! All you care about is that you make enough, which you will. You are stupidly easy to please. The specific job here is the only thing that matters. It’s the entire basis of the decision.

So, you’re looking at six interviews. Six possible GM positions. Which opening do you find most desirable? It’s not an easy choice, is it? But, make the choice. Make the choice! It’s one of your very favorite things to do, making choices. You make choices in your spare time. Here is a choice, to make.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about one of the worst games of the season, Madison Bumgarner, and an old bet, then talk to Adam J. Morris about the Rangers and Brandon Warne about the Twins.

It’s mostly a matter of aesthetics. A little bit of pride, but, for the most part, an out is an out, if you did nothing wrong. Batters make outs most of the time, especially if the batter’s name is Trevor Cahill. The Cubs, presumably, aren’t bothered that Cahill made an out in the fifth inning on Tuesday. They would’ve expected as much, and if anything, they’d be happy about his hitting a line drive. But ultimately, Cahill was thrown out by Gregory Polanco, and he was thrown out at first base, despite his quality contact. Maybe even in part because of his quality contact. Cahill found himself the victim of a 9-3 putout, and though Cahill didn’t make any mistakes, it’s naturally the sort of play that generates attention. It can’t not be dwelt on.

Read the rest of this entry »