FanGraphs Baseball

Introduction
The Fringe Five has been a weekly regular-season exercise (introduced two Aprils ago) conducted by the author this year with a view to identifying the most compelling of those rookie-eligible minor leaguers excluded from Kiley McDaniel’s preseason top-200 prospect list and also absent from the midseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Keith Law, John Sickels, and McDaniel himself. Every week during the minor-league season, the author submitted the names of five “compelling” minor leaguers, each name attended by a brief summary of that prospect’s most relevant credentials.

Generally speaking, compelling in this context meant that the prospect in question possessed some combination of the following:

1. Notable regressed stats; and

2. The ability to play on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum; and

3. Youth relative to minor-league level; and

4. A curious biographical or statistical profile.

With minor-league regular seasons having all been completed, the author presents here a summary and discussion of the Fringe Five for 2015.

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This post is not about Yoenis Cespedes’ amazing run of late for the New York Mets. Not really, anyway. You have probably heard about Cespedes since his trade to the Mets. He is hitting .302/.352/.676 with 17 home runs and a wRC+ of 179 in 193 plate appearances with his new club. Even more amazing, from August 12 through September 14, Cespedes hit .323/.379/.805 with 17 homers and a wRC+ of 220 in 145 plate appearances. During this time the Mets went 22-9 and seized control of the National League East from pre-season, early-season, and even most of late-season favorites Washington Nationals. What Cespedes has done is incredible, but he is not the only major league player to have a great run along these lines.

This post is also not about Cespedes’ MVP candidacy. Matthew Kory did a good job breaking that argument down and discussing whether Cespedes’ time in the American League should be a part of the consideration when discussing MVP. What this post is about is recognizing those performances throughout the season on the hitting side that have been up to par with Cespedes’ great run. Some of the performances are from players on winning teams, some are from non-contenders, many of these runs have been covered by various FanGraphs authors as the runs were happening, but they all deserve recognition for playing incredible baseball for a stretch at least a month long.

We’ll start with the very best players in baseball this season. Looking at the top ten in WAR on the season, we have four players from the American League, five players from the National League, and Cespedes, who has split time with both. First, Cespedes’ line, mentioned above.

Yoenis Cespedes and His Incredible Run

	Dates	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	wRC+	Team W-L
Yoenis Cespedes	8/12-9/14	145	17	.323	.379	.805	220	22-9

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One of the great things about baseball is that it’s always changing. The changes don’t happen quickly, in most cases, but the game being played today is quite a bit different from the one being played 10 years ago, and the one 10 years before that, and the one 10 years before that. Baseball has eras where no one could hit and eras where even a shortstop could launch 20 homers a year; it has had eras where starters pitched nearly every inning and eras where managers would bring in his specialist to counter the other team’s newly-inserted specialist.

The current era is all about pitching, as the rise of hard-throwers on every roster and an expanding strike zone have made this a great time to throw the ball for a living — so long as you can manage to keep from visiting Dr. Andrews, anyway — and a rough time to try and put up big offensive numbers. This is a drastic change from the style of play that we saw during the Steroid Era, where players used copious amounts of PEDs and offensive rates neared all-time highs. If you’ve been watching baseball for since we entered the 21st century, you’ve seen the game change in pretty dramatic ways, even while it is still the same sport.

Over the last 50 years, one of the most interesting changes has been the rise and fall of the popularity of the stolen base. Aggressive baserunning reached its peak in the 1980s, when teams like the St. Louis Cardinals featured line-ups of slap hitters who could run and field, while stars like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines were also setting the standard for what leadoff hitters should be. But when home run rates surged in the 1990s, stolen bases were de-emphasized; why risk making an out when the next guy up can hit one over the fence?

Now, with the strike zone getting bigger and PED testing getting more sophisticated, offense is back to the levels we saw back in the 1980s, with teams averaging roughly 4.25 runs per game over the last five years. With runs being more scarce, it was thought that perhaps MLB would move back towards 1980s-style players, and we’d see a resurgence in stolen bases once again.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.

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As Melvin Upton steps to the plate and readies for the pitch, Buster Posey appraises him. First, he looks at his feet as they dig in. Gradually, his eyes move up Upton’s body, brazenly staring as he takes in information. Down pops the sign as the catcher moves his attention to the pitcher.

It’s not just idle ogling. He’s looking for clues. Which ones?

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Texas | 20:05 ET
Keuchel (206.2 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. Perez (54.2 IP, 102 xFIP-)
There are arguments you could make, probably, in support of watching a different game tonight besides this one between Houston and Texas, but all of them are likely to get you laughed off the playground. And getting laughed off the playground as a 35-year-old — and actually you weren’t even playing or anything, you were just walking back from the store, okay, so shut up Keenan — is an indignity few should suffer. In either case, following their victory yesterday, the Rangers now lead the division by half a game. But also, despite that lead, the Astros are sill slight favorites to win the division according to this playoff graph available now at the site:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Let’s see, what are some of the current baseball headlines? With the Mets, Yoenis Cespedes is performing like an MVP candidate (for crazy people). Johnny Cueto’s season has taken a nasty turn in Kansas City. J.A. Happ has been a wonderful surprise find for the Pirates. Troy Tulowitzki might not play for the Blue Jays for a little while, but even the healthy version was offensively under-performing. Carlos Gomez hasn’t quite looked like himself. Cole Hamels hasn’t quite looked like himself. Maybe these aren’t all the biggest headlines in baseball, but they are at least things that are happening.

And there’s something all those players have in common: they’ve all very recently switched leagues. Some went AL to NL, some went NL to AL, and while the league switches don’t explain everything, you have to think they’re some kind of factor. In that, they can’t be considered irrelevant. Because, once again, the evidence points to the American League being the superior league. This isn’t anything new. Rather, this just continues a trend, a trend that’s lasted for more than a decade.

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Ben and Sam read responses to previous topics, then answer listener emails about Mike Trout, questionable bullpen decisions, what WAR is missing, and more.

A pivotal series in the National League playoff race got underway today, with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Chicago Cubs in the first of a four-game set. The two clubs play again tonight, with the home team now holding a five-game lead over the visitors for the top wild card spot. The St. Louis Cardinals are currently two up on the Bucs for the Central Division lead.

Theo Epstein fielded questions from the Chicago media prior to this afternoon’s affair. The subjects of chemistry and character came up, and – despite his saber chops – the Cubs president of baseball operations didn’t downplay their value. In his opinion, the youthful club he oversees is ahead of the curve when it comes to both.

“It’s impressive that they’re unfazed by the length of the season and the fact that they’re in a pennant race,” Epstein told the throng. “It’s a testament to their character. The norm is that young players — no matter how talented, no matter how great a start they get off to — tend to wither and just fade away,”

The Cubs haven’t faded away – at least not yet. Despite dropping a 5-4 decision this afternoon, they’re well-positioned for a wild card berth, Not that Epstein wants to hear it. When I brought up their proximity to the teams they’re chasing, Epstein told me and Peter Gammons that he’s more concerned about the team 6.5 games in their rear-view, the San Francisco Giants. As he echoed to the beat writers a few minutes later, “Until you get the little “C” next to your name in the standings, nothing is assured.”

He spoke from experience. In 2011, when he was the general manager in Boston, Epstein saw his team blow a nine-game lead in the final month and miss the playoffs.

As for troubled waters that may lay ahead for his current club, Epstein said that having players of high character pays dividends. In his words,“There’s going to be a time when they face adversity and have to rely on that character.”

Epstein’s concern is justified. The Cubs have lost three straight, and they play the Pirates and Cardinals – the teams with the best records in baseball – 10 more times. The Giants play 12 of their final 18 at home, all but three against teams with losing records.

What does Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle think about chemistry and how it applies to the teams in the playoff chase?

“At the end of the day, the chemistry – the men coming together and willing to push everything in with one common goal and not caring who gets the credit – that’s what becomes special,” Hurdle said after the game. “That’s the situation we have here and it’s the situation they have over there (with) the Cardinals. You can’t quantify how important it can be.”

What about the Cubs?

“They’re going to figure it out,” said Hurdle. “That’s the beauty of where we were a few years ago… They’ve got a really good leadership group over there that has a lot of experience in these situations, and provides direction. This is the fun part of the year for everybody. You learn every day.”

We’ll soon learn if Epstein’s Cubs have what it takes to stay the course. As for the role chemistry will play, as Hurdle alluded to, it will be hard to quantify.

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