FanGraphs Baseball

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Ross (49.2 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Bumgarner (154.1 IP, 80 xFIP-)
As one grows older and feels more acutely the baleful gravity of life, he’s more liable to begrudge those who experience success without any of the attendant struggle. One might expect, in light of this tendency, to find that right-hander Joe Ross has become the object of universal derision. Consider: over the first 49.2 innings of his career as a major leaguer, Ross has produced decidedly better-than-average fielding-independent and run-prevention numbers — and, with the exception of his most recent appearance, has conceded no more than three runs in any of his eight starts. He has, unlike the founders of Kansas, found his way to the stars without difficulties. And yet, a brief examination by the author of his interior self, reveals no contempt at all for Joe Ross. Both his Nationals and also Madison Bumgarner’s Giants currently possess divisional odds somewhere between 20% and 50% (using the season-to-date stats methodology).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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It’s not entirely surprising that Adam Eaton has nine home runs. The White Sox outfielder used to be a three-hole hitter with passable power. He homered 24 times in 434 at bats over his final two seasons at Miami University, and 13 times in his first 470 professional at bats.

Then the team that drafted him took away his bite.

The Arizona Diamondbacks moved Eaton to the top of the order – and sometimes near the bottom – when they promoted him to Double-A, in 2011. It was at that point they asked him to start developing a lead-off hitter type of approach.

“They wanted me to work my hands inside the ball consistently and drive the ball the other way,” explained Eaton. “Being a smaller guy on the left side of the plate, you definitely get tailored to your speed, and Arizona wanted me to ‘get on base, get on base.’ I’ve always been a guy who likes to hit the ball the other way, but that was still a completely different mentality.”

Eaton is 5-foot-8, so it makes sense that a team would want him to eschew swinging for the fences. To their credit, the White Sox realize it also makes sense to let him take advantage of his sneaky pop. Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 13:07 ET
Tanaka (99.2 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Estrada (117.2 IP, 117 xFIP-)
Toronto right-hander Marco Estrada, acquired recently from Milwaukee, has recorded among the lowest park-adjusted ERAs this season relative to his park-adjusted xFIP — trailing only Zack Greinke and Scott Kazmir by that measure, actually. “Is it a product of fortune,” one wonders, “or of skill?” The answer, as in most cases, is likely “both.” It’s the distribution of two that’s relevant — and the precise terms of which, like personal happiness or a father’s love, continue to remain just beyond arm’s reach.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Position: Baseball Info Solutions, Research & Development Associate

Location: ~ Allentown, Pa.

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I live in Portland, Oregon which is a beautiful city of rivers and mountains and beer and pine trees and beer. About the only thing it doesn’t have that I wish it had is professional baseball. The closest pro team is the Hillsboro Hops, the short-season Single-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they’re about a half hour away by car. In case you are not familiar, here is a hop.

That’s not a problem because a half hour isn’t a reasonable distance to drive for baseball. It is. It’s a problem in the general sense because a city like Portland should probably have more than a low Single-A baseball team. Then again, we’re all about to be swallowed up by the ground anyway so whatever.

But back to baseball! The lack of the sport here means there aren’t many opportunities to see a noteworthy game or related event. Wednesday night represented a departure from that norm. Dansby Swanson, the very first player selected in the most recent 2015 baseball draft, was going to make his professional debut and it was going to be with the Hops in Hillsboro. Yay Portland!

It was at this point that I thought, hey, I can watch Swanson in a scouty way and help inform not only myself but the readers of FanGraphs dot com as well. I get beer and a baseball game while, you, dear reader, get scouty-ish information on the top player drafted. That’s what we in the business call “a win-win.”

By way of catching you up on Swanson, here is what Kiley McDaniel had to say about him back in April.

Swanson was an advanced defender with a light bat in high school, then played second base his first two years at Vanderbilt and over the summers. Scouts got their first recent look at him playing short this spring and it still works. Swanson is a plus runner with fringy raw power and a strong 6’1/190 frame. He’s a contact hitter with more 10-13 homer power that wears out the gaps and would be a nice 6th-10th overall pick most years, but a high probability shortstop with some ceiling is hard to ignore in this draft.

Now back to me. I arrived, family in tow, at Ron Tonkin Field, home of the Hops, as the National Anthem was playing and had no trouble locating our seats. This is because the park contains not very many of them. When you’re used to a major-league stadium, finding six seats among 3,500 is like finding your bed in your bedroom.

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You’ve probably heard about the Troy Tulowitzki trade. The one that turned the Toronto Blue Jays’ already mighty offense into a juggernaut incapable of losing. The trade for David Price made some news, too. A team with a few mid-rotation starters but lacking an ace at the top and depth at the bottom was reinvigorated with the acquisition of one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, simultaneously providing that much-needed ace and allowing the rest of the rotation to fill out the remaining spots nicely. Those were the major moves — the earth-shattering, capture-the-attention-of-two-nations moves. The Blue Jays made other moves, too, though, and getting LaTroy Hawkins in the Tulowitzki trade, adding Mark Lowe, moving Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen, and officially naming Roberto Osuna as closer has strengthened what was once a weakness. For months, the Blue Jays struggled to close out games, but the bullpen has been lights out in the second half and looks ready to compete in October.

The last time I looked at the Blue Jays’ pitching issues, it was late June, the team was fourth in the division but had a solid 50/50 shot at making the playoffs. In the six intervening weeks, the Blue Jays have moved from wild-card hopeful to near playoff lock with more than a 90% chance of making the playoffs and 57% chance of winning the division. In late June, the rotation had at least one hole, and the bullpen was still struggling. Brett Cecil was experiencing difficulties as a closer, and the team had recorded just one more Shutdown (40) than Meltdown (39) on the year. As the first half drew to a close, the team had as many saves (14) as blown saves (14). Beginning with the change in closer six weeks ago, however, the Blue Jays have transformed their bullpen.

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There are a lot of rookies getting attention this season. And with good reason — it’s been a pretty good year for rookie position players. But while Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Joc Pederson, Jung-Ho Kang, Randal Grichuk are Carlos Correa getting lots of pub, it seems as though Miguel Sano has not generated the same volume of coverage nationally as have his peers. And that’s a shame, because he’s just as deserving of praise.

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Last year’s Royals caused us to fall in love with stolen bases all over again. The AL Wild Card Game put their utility on display, and it was around that game the whole nation turned its attention to Jon Lester’s refusal to attempt any pickoffs. I probably don’t need to review this for you, so I’ll skip ahead. When Lester began this year with the Cubs, plenty of people were wondering whether he’d attempt more pickoffs than the zero he tried in 2014. He seemed like a pitcher who could be taken advantage of.

Flash back to the first month of the season. Lester threw over, all right. Twice. Sort of.

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