FanGraphs Baseball

Earlier this off-season, the Chicago Cubs began work on their long-awaited renovations to Wrigley Field. The team launched phase one of the project in October, tearing down the stadium’s existing bleachers with the hope of rebuilding and expanding them in time for Opening Day. In addition, the $575 million project will eventually include new clubhouses, luxury suites, concession areas and signage throughout the stadium — as well as the construction of a nearby hotel and office-building complex.

Unless, that is, owners of the rooftops overlooking Wrigley Field get their way. These building owners have filed two lawsuits over the past four months — the first coming this past August, and the second on Thursday — in an attempt to stop the renovations. In particular, the rooftop owners fear that two new scoreboards to be constructed as part of the renovation project will block their views into the stadium, threatening the roughly $20 million in annual ticket revenue the rooftops currently generate.

In an interesting twist, though, rather than suing the Cubs, the building owners have instead sued the City of Chicago in the hopes of having the renovation halted. Understanding why the rooftop owners would sue the city, rather than the team, requires some knowledge of the lengthy history of the dispute.

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The 2015 FAN Projection ballots are now open!

Before you can project any players, you’ll have to select the team you follow most closely towards the top of the screen. If you really don’t follow a team, just pick one. You’ll only have to do this once.

After you’ve selected a team, there are 9 categories for pitchers and 10 categories for position players. Pick the values in the drop-down boxes closest to what you think the player will do in 2015, hit the submit button and you’re done! If you made a mistake, you can always go back and change your selection at any time.

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

That’s really all there is to it. You can filter players by team, or if you go to the player pages, you can project players individually. If you want to see all the players you’ve projected, you can click on the “My Rankings” button which will show you only what you specifically projected a player to do.

Fan Projections will show up on the player pages after there have been 5 ballots submitted.

If you do notice any issues, please let us know.

Hyun-Jin Ryu isn’t the best Dodger starter, because Clayton Kershaw exists. He’s not the second-best Dodger starter, because Zack Greinke exists. If you can’t even make a case for being one of the two best starters on your own team, it’s going to be very difficult to make the case that you’re one of the better starters in the game. “No. 3 starter” just doesn’t have that much appeal to it, as recent third bananas like Doug Fister or Anibal Sanchez can attest to.

Being fortunate — or unfortunate, depending on how you look at it — enough to be paired with the truly elite starters in the game shouldn’t affect how you’re viewed, of course. Any player should be judged on his own merits and compared to the full population of pitchers, not just those who happen to share a clubhouse. In the same way that it’s foolish to think that Maikel Franco and Addison Russell are equal players just because they are ranked as the No. 2 prospect for their respective franchises, you can’t assume that Ryu and, say, Ricky Nolasco are of equal value because they’re the third-best starter on their team.

All of which is a long way of getting to the point, which is this: Ryu has proven himself to be one of baseball’s outstanding pitchers in his two seasons in America, and none of us — us here at FanGraphs included, unfortunately — seem to talk about him that way.

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Mets batters produced 18.2 WAR collectively in 2014, an almost precisely average figure among the league’s 30 clubs. Given the projections below, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them replicate that effort in 2015. All eight of the team’s likely starters are forecast to produce something between 0.9 and 3.8 WAR — and six of them, between 1.8 to 3.1 WAR.

An area of some interest with regard to the club seems to be how Terry Collins et al. contend with Lucas Duda and Lucas Duda’s difficulties with left-handed pitching. Despite a strong 2014 season, the Mets first baseman produced only a 54 wRC+ against left handers. By way of comparison, the worst overall figure among the game’s 146 qualified batters in 2014 was Zack Cozart’s 56 wRC+. Either John Mayberry (333 PA, -0.1 WAR) or even Eric Campbell (416 PA, 0.5 WAR) are candidates to platoon with Duda.

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The White Sox have had an incredibly busy offseason, but the goal’s always been clear. The Padres, too, have had a busy offseason, striving for an obvious purpose. Right before the Padres took the industry by storm, it was the Dodgers who were making moves every half hour, toward, again, a clear goal of contention. The A’s have had their own busy offseason, but theirs had been more confusing. Giving three guaranteed years to Billy Butler seemed like a move for a team trying to win. Dealing away a long-term asset like Josh Donaldson seemed like the opposite. To Oakland’s credit, though, they stuck to their own message — they weren’t trying to rebuild. They don’t believe in rebuilds. And now we can see how things all come together.

When the Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera, after having acquired Nick Franklin last summer, they were provided the flexibility to move Ben Zobrist in advance of his contract year. Zobrist, of course, appealed to just about every team in baseball, on account of his talent and flexibility. Now Zobrist has been moved, and he’s been moved to the A’s, along with Yunel Escobar, in exchange for John Jaso, Daniel Robertson, and Boog Powell. The trade’s interesting from the Tampa Bay side, just because it involves moving one of the best players on the team. And the trade’s interesting from the Oakland side, because it adds a great player at little short-term cost. Score yet another point for those who issue reminders that you shouldn’t judge offseasons until they’re complete.

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Ben and Sam banter about Ryan Lavarnway and Billy Beane fan fiction, then discuss the Ben Zobrist trade.

Chris Archer’s attitude toward stats is a mix of new-school and old-school. The 26-year-old righty realizes pitcher Wins and ERA are influenced by things he can’t control. The number he cares most about, from a personal perspective, is innings pitched.

Archer threw 194-and-two-third innings for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2014. He did so effectively, fashioning a 3.33 ERA and a nearly identical 3.39 FIP over 32 starts. Pitching in his second full season, his W-L record was 10-9.

He fell short of his goal, albeit just barely.

“The one goal I had this year was to pitch 200 innings,” Archer told me. “If you’re pitching into the seventh pretty much every time, that’s the number you reach. For me, elite starters pitch 200 innings because, A: They’re making every start, and B: They’re keeping their team in every game. The manager’s not going to leave you out there if you’re not throwing well.”

The hard-throwing right-hander wasn’t pulled early very often last year. He went at least six innings 23 times, and on just three occasions fewer than five. He surrendered four or more earned runs only eight times.

Archer pitched better than his 10-9 record. In 14 of his 32 starts, he got either a loss or a no-decision while allowing three or fewer earned runs. No teardrops were shed – at least not for selfish reasons. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 519
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses the possibility of estimating a prospect’s BABIP, certain results of Chris Mitchell’s KATOH prospect forecasting work, and also his lists for the Mets and Padres.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 16 min play time.)

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Full trade, as first reported by @susanslusser: Zobrist and Y. Escobar to #Athletics for Jaso, SS Daniel Robertson and OF Boog Powell.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 10, 2015

Because this deal was reported in its entirety only, like, six minutes ago, the purpose of this post is less to examine Saturday’s trade between Oakland and Tampa Bay with any great depth and more just to announce that it has, in fact, happened.

Below are the details with each player’s projected WAR total for 2015 (prorated to 600 plate appearances), plus both the number of years and dollars remaining on the relevant player’s respective contract.

Oakland receives:

Yunel Escobar — 1.9 WAR600 / 2 years / $13 million
Ben Zobrist — 3.8 WAR600 / 1 year / $7.5 million

Tampa Bay receives:

John Jaso — 1.4 WAR600 / 1 year / $3.3 million*
Boog Powell — -0.7 WAR600 / 6 years / Min x 3, Arb x 3
Daniel Robertson — 0.2 WAR600 / 6 years / Min x 3, Arb x 3

*Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salary for 2015.

What’s apparent, first of all, is that the A’s have likely improved the 2015 edition of their club. Escobar and Zobrist would seemingly replace Marcus Semien and Eric Sogard at shortstop and second base, respectively. Semien and (maybe also) Sogard, meanwhile, replace whomever was likely to occupy the utility position. Steamer’s projection for Semien is actually quite optimistic (2.3 WAR), although there are reasonable questions to be asked of Semien’s defensive competence at shortstop. Now the latter can occupy a super utility-type role, minimizing the effect of ineffectiveness or injury. Zobrist, meanwhile, is roughly a two-win improvement over Sogard, and will likely spend some time in the outfield as well, giving the team necessary depth in left field that was lacking. Overall, the difference is probably about two or three wins, give or take, for roughly $10 million of extra payroll commitment in 2015.

With regard to the Rays, they will also feature a new middle infield in 2015. At the end of December, Jeff Sullivan considered the point of Asdrubal Cabrera as a free-agent acquisition for Tampa Bay. Mostly the point was: now the Rays can trade Escobar and/or Zobrist. Some combination of Cabrera and Nick Franklin are likely to play some combination of second base and shortstop. Neither have a great reputation at the latter, but both have played it before and are likely not to embarrass themselves or their families. Overall they probably concede about 1.5 or 2.0 wins to the combination of Escobar and Zobrist — again, mostly just because Zobrist is so good.

With regard to the prospects, Robertson (who enters his age-21 season) has exhibited an advanced offensive approach with non-negligible power. He’s played almost exclusively at shortstop as a minor leaguer, but might ultimately lack the range and agility to do so at an average major-league level. Powell, meanwhile, lacks nearly all of the tools, but has exhibited fantastic plate discipline at the minor-league level and can play an adequate center field, most likely. Robertson and Powell are projected to produce 3.4 WAR and 2.5 WAR, respectively, through their age-28 seasons, according to Chris Mitchell’s KATOH methodology.

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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