If you followed along with my Replacement Level Killers series, you’re no doubt familiar with the disheveled state of the Twins. After last year’s epic late-season collapse, Minnesota started slowly, clawed its way back into contention, and then stumbled during a 9-18 June; the team is now 48-51 with 17.5% Playoff Odds, still good enough to qualify for my series highlighting the weakest spots on contenders. Within that series, the Twins made a major league-high five appearances: at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and right field. An underrated part of their struggles is their defense. To the extent that they can still be considered contenders, their glovework stands out as the worst of any playoff hopeful based upon the methodology I used to identify the best team defenses thus far a few weeks ago.

Along with that piece, this is part of my annual midseason dip into the alphabet soup of defensive metrics, including Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our own catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages). Longtime standby Ultimate Zone Rating has been retired, which required me to adjust my methodology.

On an individual level, even a full season of data isn’t enough to get the clearest picture of a player’s defense. Indeed, it’s not at all surprising that samples of 800 innings or fewer produce divergent values across the major metrics; different methodologies produce varying spreads in runs from top to bottom, spreads that owe something to what they don’t measure, as well as how much regression is built into their systems. Pitchers don’t have FRVs, and DRS tends to produce more extreme ratings (positive and negative) than Statcast. But within this aggregation, I think we get enough signal roughly 60% of the way through the season to justify checking in; I don’t proclaim this to be a bulletproof methodology so much as a good point of entry into a broad topic. Read the rest of this entry »

As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.

For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2026-2030, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2030 (assuming the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2024 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.

One note on the rankings: Particularly at the bottom of the list, there isn’t a lot of room between the players. The ordinal rankings clearly matter, and we put them there for a reason, but there isn’t much of a gap between, say, the 38th-ranked player and the guy who would have been 58th if the list went that deep. The magnitude of the differences in this part of the list is quite small. Several of the folks I talked to might prefer a player in the Honorable Mentions section to one on the back end of the list, or vice versa. I think the broad strokes are correct, and this is my opinion of the best order, but with so many players carrying roughly equivalent value, disagreements abounded. I’ll note places where I disagreed meaningfully with the people I spoke with in calibrating this list, and I’ll also note players whose value was the subject of disagreement among my contacts. As I mentioned in the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, I’ll also indicate tier breaks between players where appropriate, both in their capsules and in the table at the end of the piece.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the first batch of players. Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, Ben Clemens laid out five fun things to watch during the second half of the 2025 season. The one that caught my eye was the race to lead the league in bunts for base hits. The contestants all make plenty of sense. The group of Kyle Isbel, Jacob Young, TJ Friedl, Victor Scott II, and Xavier Edwards includes four light-hitting, fleet-footed center fielders and one light-hitting, fleet-footed shortstop. But there’s another bunting race going on, and in it, these four speedsters – along with everyone else in baseball – are getting dusted by Jose Herrera, the Diamondbacks backup catcher whom Statcast rates as the 491st fastest out of 510 qualified players this season. It’s the race to lead the league in sacrifice bunts, and no one in baseball is quite so eager to choose the greater good over their own personal gratification than Herrera.

Actually, that’s not entirely true. Herrera is tied for fourth in attempted sac bunts. He just leads the league because he’s batting a thousand on his attempts. (Not literally, of course; a successful sac bunt doesn’t count toward your batting average at all.) The other players I’ve mentioned have failed, fouled, or whiffed on their bunts a lot, but not Herrera. We’re going to put Herrera’s proclivity for the sacrifice into context a little later, but let’s start with the obvious question. Why does Herrera bunt so much? It can’t just be because he’s good at it. It’s certainly not because he thinks he can beat out a hit with his third-percentile sprint speed. Often enough, he’s not even pretending to run hard. On this play, it’s not so much that he’s sacrificing himself as it is that he’s just kind of surrendering. Read the rest of this entry »

“Who you got?” It seems like such a simple question. If you’ve ever swapped baseball cards during recess or tried to pick somewhere to eat on a Friday night, you’ve asked yourself this. The choice between two options seems easy. But then you add a third option, and a fourth, and a 139th, and suddenly you’re obsessing over whether you’d prefer your third-favorite Thai restaurant to your fourth-favorite Italian place. Or perhaps, if you’ve used our new crowdsourced trade value tool, you’re deciding between CJ Abrams and Andrew Abbott. Making decisions is hard!

Welcome to the 2025 edition of our annual Trade Value series. Starting today and continuing all week, we’re releasing our list of the 50 most valuable players in baseball, taking player performance, age, and contract into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this column before; this is my fourth year doing it on my own.

Of course, “on my own” is a bit of a misnomer. The process of building this list starts with me gathering every possible input I can find: age, contract status, measures of current production, estimates of future production, Statcast data, pitch-level modeling, scouting reports – if it can be written down, I try to consider it in my first pass. I use all of those inputs to come up with an initial quantitative ranking, then hone that ranking by diving deeper into individual player comparisons. After I have things in good order, I consult with the FanGraphs staff to refine my thinking further. (Special thanks are due to Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS assistance, Eric Longenhagen for being a frequent sounding board as I iterated on the list, Meg Rowley for her help shepherding it through to publication, and Sean Dolinar for his technical assistance.) Next, I reach out to sources on the team side. Here I try to gather perspectives on player value from organizations that have different methodological leanings, different budgets and goals, and that are in different places in the competitive cycle. Read the rest of this entry »

Payton Tolle is the top pitching prospect in what is arguably baseball’s best farm system. Drafted 50th-overall last summer by the Boston Red Sox out of Texas Christian University, the 22-year-old left-hander features a fastball that Eric Longenhagen has assigned a 70 grade, and not just because of its high octane. Per our lead prospect analyst, the 6-foot-6, 250-pound hurler possessed “the 2024 draft’s most deceptive secondary traits,” which included seven-and-a-half feet of extension.

I asked Tolle about his four-seamer, which sat 95 mph when I saw toe the rubber for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs versus the Hartford Yard Goats 10 days ago.

“The velo is something we’ve kind of driven hard ever since I got to the Red Sox org,” said Tolle, who was 90-92 in college and is now topping out at 98-99. “I’m buying into the system, buying into how the velo is going to change how everything looks. I also understand that more swing-and-miss is going to come at the top of the zone. At Wichita State, my first year, I felt like I was almost more sinkers, but then I switched up my grip. I brought my fingers closer together and started to have more ride on it.”

Tolle transferred from Wichita State to TCU for his junior year, where he — along with the Horned Frogs coaching staff — “really dove into how the fastball plays and what we can play off of it.” Since turning pro, that evolution has continued with a heavy emphasis on secondary offerings. Whereas his fastball usage as an amateur was often 70-75%, it has been closer to 50% in his recent outings. A work-in-progress changeup has become more prevalent — Tolle got bad swings on a few of them when I saw him in Portland — but a hard breaking ball is currently his top option behind his heater. Read the rest of this entry »

“Andrew Jackson, in the main foyer of his White House had a big block of cheese. The block of cheese was huge, over two tons, and it was there for any and all who might be hungry. Jackson wanted the White House to belong to the people, so from time to time, he opened his doors to those who wished an audience…”

That’s the late, great John Spencer as Leo McGarry in Season 1, Episode 5 of The West Wing, giving his Big Block of Cheese Day speech to the senior staff in the Roosevelt Room. I like to think of this mailbag as FanGraphs’ own Big Block of Cheese Day. We open things up for you, our readers, to ask whatever questions you have for us, and like Leo, I comb through them and delegate some of them out to our staff to answer. (It’s fun to consider myself Meg’s chief of staff, and in this FanGraphs-as-West Wing analogy, Baumann is definitely Josh Lyman.) And as is the case in the Big Block of Cheese Day episodes, we at FanGraphs always walk away more enlightened baseball fans after answering your questions.

Big Block of Cheese Day came to mind for this mailbag because of a question I received this week that we will get to momentarily. But before then, I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

At last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contending clubs. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds around 10%), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, but for the designated hitters, I’ve limited the list to the teams below zero, both to keep the length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the fourth full season of the universal DH, 0.6 WAR represents the median, with 10 teams below zero, 11 between zero and 1.0, and eight with 1.0 or more, with only four of those eight reaching 2.0. By comparison, at this time last year, half the teams in the majors were at 0.0 WAR or less. DHs as a group have hit .239/.322/.422 for a 108 wRC+ this season, the last of which matches 2024’s final figure.

It does appear that an increasing number of teams are investing more playing time in a single DH. From 2022 (the first full-length season with the universal DH) to ’24, the number of players reaching 450 plate appearances in the DH role increased from three to four to seven; this year, we’re on pace for 10. That said, many of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ceddanne Rafaela’s breakout 2025 season has truly been a surprise. It wasn’t just that he ran a wRC+ of 80 in his first full big league campaign in 2024. It was how he got there. He ran the worst chase and strikeout rates of all qualified players. His contact rate and exit velocity ranked right near the bottom as well. He still looked like he could be a very good player by way of excellent defense in center field, but even though he was just 23, it raised real concerns about his potential at the plate. Beyond the fact that players haven’t historically improved their chase rates much after their rookie seasons, Rafaela’s chase rate was so extreme that it was hard to find someone to compare him to. A young player would be expected to refine his plate discipline some, but even if he had literally knocked an unheard of 10 percentage points off his chase rate, he still would’ve had the 12th-highest chase rate among all qualified players. And yet here he is now.

Rafaela has a 115 wRC+ and is on pace for 5.6 WAR this season. He has been the most valuable position player on the Red Sox. It’s probably helped that Rafaela has a year of experience under his belt and has been allowed to stick in center field all season, but this is a huge turnaround nonetheless. How did it happen? Let’s start at the beginning. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re now two weeks from the trade deadline, and so far, not much has happened since the mid-June Rafael Devers trade. At least, that is, if you’re not the world’s biggest fan of Adam Frazier, just acquired by the Kansas City Royals. Unless we have the most boring deadline season ever, there’s a lot more to come as this is every organization’s last, best chance to improve their teams for the homestretch and the playoffs. So, who has the most to gain by being a buyer?

We could just say “teams near the playoffs” and peace out, but given I have access to a projection system that comes with a season simulation attached, that would be kind of lazy. So to get some hard numbers on the possible benefits beyond just saying Good Player Make Wins Go Brrr, I ran the rest-of-season simulation 60 times — adding one win to each team once, and then two wins to each team once — and hit the red run button. (I actually have one.) Yes, that means even the White Sox and Rockies get the opportunity to add wins, though you can judge whether this is being complete or being cruel.

In the chart below, which gives the results for all 30 teams, “+1” and “+2” represent the scenarios in which we added either one or two wins to that team’s bottom line. The table ought to be sortable, unless I messed it up, which is a thing that does happen. (Editor’s Note: Dan did not mess this up. Happy sorting!) Read the rest of this entry »

This week’s All Star break is a rare gap in the baseball calendar, a chance for everyone to catch their breath before the thrill of the trade deadline — and, if you’re a FanGraphs reader, maybe the thrill of the trade value series, too. It’s also a week with very little baseball, which means the normal format for Five Things will have to take a break. Instead, here are five things that I’m looking forward to in the second half of the season, from trade deadline trendsetters to silly leaderboards to my favorite young star.

A quick programming note before we continue: No Five Things for the next two weeks, and instead of my regularly scheduled chat appearance on Monday, we’ll have a jumbo-length trade value chat next Friday at the conclusion of the series. Five Things will be back on Friday, August 8, the first week after trade season winds down.

1. Who Will Sell First?
There are six teams hanging onto the fringes of the playoff chase, three-plus games back of the final wild card spot. Most of those teams are in win-now mode, which means they all have interesting players to trade if they pivot to selling. Only one of them can move first, though.

In the AL Central, the entire middle of the division is below .500 and on the ropes. But if all three teams are intent on competing next year – and they all appear to be – they might not have much to offer. Seth Lugo is the best player on an expiring deal, but despite their 11.7% playoff odds as of Thursday afternoon, the Royals might decide to stand pat. They’re right in the middle of the peak Bobby Witt Jr. contention years and wouldn’t get an earth-shaking return back for dealing Lugo. So why not take a slim shot at the playoffs with their current roster? It’s a close call, though I’d probably trade him.

Neither the Guardians nor the Twins have many attractive pending free agents, but in recent days, Joe Ryan has been the subject of trade rumors. Minnesota certainly doesn’t have to deal him; he has two more arbitration years after this season.

That leaves two teams as the likely movers and shakers with multiple good players to trade: Arizona and Baltimore. The Diamondbacks are three below, and with Corbin Burnes out for the year, they’re not at full strength anyway. They also have a treasure trove of players on expiring contracts; Eugenio Suárez is the best hitter even possibly available at the deadline, plenty of pitching labs would love to work with Zac Gallen, and Merrill Kelly and Josh Naylor are proven veteran contributors. Read the rest of this entry »