Well, the dream is dead. Throughout the season, I have been tracking Nick Allen’s chances of reopening the Homerless Qualifier Club, the exclusive fraternity of players who make enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title but fail to hit a single home run. In 2022, Myles Straw became the only entrant since 2012 and just the 19th of the century. Allen has played in 128 of Atlanta’s 139 games, but batting last and frequently giving up his spot in favor of a pinch-hitter has kept him just under the threshold of 3.1 plate appearances per game all season long. The cruel cat-and-mouse game is finally over, though, because the Braves have claimed Ha-Seong Kim from the Rays off waivers. Kim started at shortstop on Tuesday, going 2-for-4. Manager Brian Snitker made it clear that Kim will play there for the remainder of the season.

Kim tore the labrum in his right shoulder on August 18 last year, requiring surgery and putting an unceremonious end to his final season with the Padres. The Rays took a gamble on him knowing that he wouldn’t be available until May at the earliest, signing him on a two-year deal with an opt-out for $13 million this year (with $2 million more in incentives), then $16 million in 2026. If he performed well, Tampa Bay would have him for one season at a big discount, and he’d get a second shot at having a proper platform year. Instead, Kim’s return was delayed until July by hamstring and calf injuries, and lower back issues put him on the IL twice more in the past two months. In all, Kim got into just 24 games with the Rays, making 93 plate appearances and recording a wRC+ of 72, his worst offensive showing since 2021, his first year in the U.S. That made keeping Kim around for the 2026 season too big a risk for the Rays.

All of this is a shame. Kim is a great player, an excellent, versatile defender with a solid bat, and injuries have now robbed him of his second chance to sign a deal that would reflect that excellence. Even if he puts up a fantastic 2026 campaign, he’ll be re-entering free agency after his age-30 season, which isn’t easy for a player whose value is so wrapped up in his glove.

Now, the Braves are the team taking a chance on Kim. Unless he puts up the greatest September in recent memory, he will forego his opt-out and get paid $16 million to anchor the Atlanta infield in 2026. He wouldn’t have to return all the way to the form he showed from 2022 to 2024 – when he ran a 106 wRC+ with 15 DRS and 7 FRV to average 4.0 WAR per 162 games – in order to make that a bargain. Still, he represents a risk. Atlanta is tying itself to a player who has suffered several minor injuries while recovering from a major one, and who hasn’t performed in his limited time with Tampa Bay. On the other hand, that time was so limited that it’s hard to tell where the noise leaves off and the signal starts. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t think you can do this job for any amount of time without getting attached to particular players. Not even in the sense of having love or affection — certain ballplayers are just interesting to certain writers. For me, that manifests in just checking in with those players once or twice a season to see how they’re doing. Which reminds me, I’m overdue for my next updates on Willy Adames and Trevor Rogers.

I sometimes preface blogs about such players with the phrase, “Longtime readers might remember…”

Well, longtime readers might remember Hurston Waldrep’s splitter. Read the rest of this entry »

I’d like to present the meatball-iest pitch thrown so far in 2025:

I know, I know! I said that, but it’s just a foul ball. Hear me out, though, because I can put some data behind my claim. Here at FanGraphs, PitchingBot, our in-house pitch modeling system, looks at every single pitch thrown, regresses it against a huge database of past pitches, and uses some mathematical ingenuity to turn that into the expected outcomes of the pitch. That’s not the same as knowing which pitch is most likely to turn into a home run, but luckily, a good bit of mathematical wrangling can turn pitch grades into home run percentages.

Last year, I worked out the rough contours of converting PitchingBot grades into home run likelihood. This year, I’ve expanded that methodology to try to learn a little bit more about the pitchers doing the meatballing. If you’d like to skip through the how, you can head right down to the table labeled “Meatball Mongers.” If you’re here for the nitty gritty of turning pitch metrics into home run likelihood, though, here’s how I did it.

That Trent Thornton fastball had a lot of things working against it, and those things help explain how PitchingBot estimates the chances that a pitch will be hit for a home run. PitchingBot has a flowchart that explains how the model works. Here’s how the system assesses every pitch it grades:

Hey, a convenient “start here” label! How great! The “swing model” takes location, count, pitch type, movement, platoon matchups, and pretty much everything else you can imagine into account and guesses at the likelihood of a batter swinging at each pitch. That Thornton fastball was down the middle in an 0-1 count, and it’s not a particularly deceptive offering. In other words, hitters often swing at fastballs like that – 92.7% of the time, per PitchingBot’s model. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley talk about not talking about the Cardinals, then banter about Sandy Alcantara’s resurgence, whether Walker Buehler will have his own bounceback for the Phillies, Ha-Seong Kim’s reunion with Jurickson Profar, the concept of “adversarial location,” Aroldis Chapman and Taj Bradley‘s discoveries of inside/outside and scouting reports, respectively, Chapman’s extension, whether Luis Arraez’s strikeout avoidance is still fun, a notable FARTBAT, switch-thrower Carlos Cortes, and Meg’s Mariners anxiety.

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)”

Link to Cardinals odds graph
Link to Cardinals WAR leaders
Link to team attendance changes
Link to preseason team projections
Link to Glaser bobblehead
Link to Alcantara leaderboard
Link to team SP projections
Link to team RP projections
Link to Judge article
Link to Olney video
Link to Olney pitch-type splits
Link to Dan S. on Chapman
Link to Chapman on DV
Link to Bradley article
Link to K%+ leaderboard
Link to Dan S. on Arraez
Link to Sam on Arraez
Link to Goodhart’s Law
Link to FARTBAT episode
Link to Story HR video
Link to Story HR article
Link to Cortes article

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The Red Sox got to work on their 2026 bullpen over the holiday weekend, signing closer Aroldis Chapman to a contract extension that keeps him in Boston for at least one more season. Chapman’s one-year, $13.3 million deal comes in the form of a $12 million salary for next season, a $1 million signing bonus, and a $300,000 buyout if a $13 million mutual option for 2027 is not exercised. That option becomes guaranteed if he pitches 40 innings in 2026 and passes a physical exam after the season.

After appearing to be in decline for at least a few years and falling out of the conversation of baseball’s top closers — and at times losing the closer’s role altogether — Chapman is dominating in his first season with the Red Sox. Entering play Tuesday, he has a 1.00 ERA and a 1.78 FIP over 54 innings with 77 strikeouts and 14 walks. No, you didn’t misread that last part: Chapman has issued only 14 free passes this season across 54 innings, which works out to a rate of 7.1% and 2.33 BB/9 — by far the lowest marks of his career. Even at his absolute best, Chapman would walk three or four batters per nine innings, a reasonable trade-off for the rest of his skillset. However, as he aged, that control degraded, and from 2021 through 2024, he walked 15% of the batters he faced. So, for him to suddenly put up the best control season of his career, at age 37, is an impressive feat.

ESPN’s Buster Olney talked a bit about how Chapman’s approach changed in the spring, but the basic explanation for what we’re seeing is he has stopped throwing his fastball down the middle. Instead, on the advice of Boston catcher Connor Wong and with the assistance of PitchCom, Chapman is now actually trying to spot his heater. While this is the type of anecdote that sometimes sounds like folklore, the data do suggest that Chapman is suddenly locating his fastball with dramatically more competence than in the past. According to Stuff+, Chapman’s Location+ of 179 for his fastball is the fifth-best number ever tallied (min. 40 innings), compared to the 94 he ran over his past four seasons. His sinker, once a sideshow in his repertoire, has become its focal point in the way the slider once was. This isn’t a sinker thrown to induce a groundball but to be an out pitch, a 100-mph sinker high and outside against righties, high and hard on the hands of lefties. Only one player in Statcast history has ever finished with a better whiff rate on his sinker than Chapman’s 38.9% this season: Josh Hader in 2019 (40.7%) and 2021 (40.5%). Read the rest of this entry »

This is the second post in a series I’m working on in which I not only do a deep dive analyzing shortstop prospects’ defense, but also cut together a video package so that you can too. The first installment can be found in the navigation widget above. Today, I’m tackling Red Sox prospect Franklin Arias, Yankees prospect George Lombard Jr., Cardinals prospect JJ Wetherholt, and Reds prospect Edwin Arroyo. Let’s get started. Read the rest of this entry »

When Troy Melton was first featured here at FanGraphs in August 2023, he was described as a “Tigers Pitching Prospect on the Rise.” Then with High-A West Michigan and in his first full professional season, the 2022 fourth-rounder out of San Diego State University was climbing the rankings thanks largely to a firm fastball and plus command. As Eric Longenhagen put it, “His fastball’s impact alone should be enough to make him a good big league reliever even if his secondary stuff doesn’t develop.”

Two years later, the 24-year-old right-hander was ranked the fifth-best prospect in the Tigers system and 70th overall in our 2025 updated Top 100 list. His ascent has landed him in Motown, and a markedly improved repertoire is a big reason why. Moreover, he has been one of the team’s most effective pitchers since his late-July arrival. Over 10 appearances — seven out of the bullpen and three as a starter — Melton has logged a 2.25 ERA and a 3.66 FIP over 32 innings.

An argument could be made that Melton is currently the second-best starting pitcher on the Tigers roster — behind only Tarik Skubal — even though he isn’t getting an opportunity to show it. The AL Central leaders are primarily using the rookie as a reliever, the reasons being twofold: The 107 1/3 innings he’s thrown between the minors and majors are already a career high, and Detroit would rather use him more than just every fifth day. According to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press, manager A.J. Hinch said, “It’s an advantage to have Troy Melton available more often, even if it’s just in shorter bursts.”

Hinch went on to say that the Tigers “may start him down the road this season,” and results suggest that could be a good idea. Over the past six weeks, the foursome of Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Charlie Morton, and Chris Paddack has registered ERAs ranging from 4.66 to 5.81. Meanwhile, Melton’s mark over his three starts, covering 17 innings, is 3.18. Prior to his call-up, the youngster fashioned a 2.72 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate across 18 games (16 starts) with Triple-A Toledo. Read the rest of this entry »

Aside from a brief run last October — one that culminated with a surprise cameo to close out last year’s World Series — Walker Buehler has scarcely resembled the pitcher who from 2019–21 made two All-Star teams and helped the Dodgers win a championship. The Red Sox took a shot at fixing him, and now the Phillies will try as well, hoping at the very least that he can provide some useful innings down the stretch and land a spot on their playoff roster.

The 31-year-old Buehler, who signed a one-year, $21.05 million deal with Boston in January, was roughed up for a 5.45 ERA and 5.89 FIP in 112.1 innings with the Red Sox, slightly higher than his marks with the Dodgers last year (5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP in 75.1 innings) after returning from his second Tommy John surgery. He made 22 starts for the Red Sox, but his continued struggles led the team to pull him from the rotation after his August 19 start, a four-inning, four-walk, two-run outing against the Orioles. After just one relief appearance, in which he allowed two runs in 2.1 innings against the Yankees on August 24, the Red Sox released him last Friday while still owing him roughly $3.4 million.

The Red Sox — who at 77-62 are tied for the AL Wild Card lead despite weathering numerous starting pitcher injuries and disappointments — had considered replacing Buehler in the rotation with rookie Richard Fitts. But when the 25-year-old rookie landed on the injured list due to a bout of neuritis in his right arm, the team needed to add another starter, and the call-up of prospect Payton Tolle cost Buehler his spot on the 40-man roster. Read the rest of this entry »

On August 20, Paige Bueckers, rookie for the WNBA’s Dallas Wings, dropped 44 points against the Los Angeles Sparks, the most ever scored by a rookie in a single game. When Bueckers passed the previous single-game rookie scoring record (40 points, set by Candace Parker, who won MVP that year), one of the broadcasters remarked that her performance in the game effectively guaranteed her Rookie of the Year honors. Heading into the season, Bueckers was favored to win the award, but strong play from Washington Mystics rookie Sonia Citron forced WNBA analysts to reconsider what once had felt like a foregone conclusion. Bueckers needed the 44-point game to reclaim her place as the sport’s top rookie.

In the WNBA’s 40-game season, one game can legitimately swing an awards race, especially in the context of a sport where a star player can dominate a game and a point guard like Bueckers touches the ball on every possession. To find an analog in a 162-game baseball season, one might have to look for a hot streak spanning several games or a particularly close race that features a game with enough narrative heft to sway the sensibilities of the writers voting on the award. Looking back at recent rookie seasons reveals a few possible examples. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all enjoyed your three-day weekends. I had a lovely one here, one that included a surprise solo parenting job as I took my daughter and her friend to see the Brooklyn Cyclones on Sunday; my wife planned to go instead of the friend, but came down with a migraine (ugh). Fortunately, it all went well, everybody had fun and I came home with the same number of kids I brought.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a thing on Walker Buehler joining the Phillies that’s about to go live. Did some injury roundups as they pertain to contenders late last week. Here’s the NL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/watch-those-fingers-a-roundup-of-recent-in…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: And here’s the AL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-roundup-of-recent-injuries-among-the-al-…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: pour one out for Corey Seager, yeesh.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Ok, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »