Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether Mike Trout‘s injury makes the Angels more likely to trade birthday boy Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers’ rotation depth without Dustin May and Clayton Kershaw, bad news for Thairo Estrada and oldsters Nelson Cruz and Adam Wainwright (and the Cruz/Joe Ryan trade revisited), James Paxton‘s comeback, Mariners All-Star additions, Jordan Walker’s strange season, the arrival of the latest Orioles prospect, Colton Cowser, and more. Then (47:53) they answer listener emails about Triston Casas and assessing player development, a Jack in the Box baseball offer, a silly ending to a minor league game, baseball references (or the lack thereof) in Fall Out Boy’s version of “We Didn’t Start the Fire,” a ball that would be conducive to singles, a genie that grants baseball wishes, a simultaneous doubleheader, Ohtani fun facts, and softball-style helmets, plus a Future Blast (1:45:15) from 2029 and postscript follow-ups.

Audio intro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively Wild theme”
Audio outro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild theme”

Link to Dan S. on the Angels
Link to hamate study 1
Link to hamate study 2
Link to hamate study 3
Link to Rosenthal on an Ohtani trade
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Angels depth chart
Link to Dan’s Adell MLE
Link to Clay Davenport’s Adell MLE
Link to Hill EW episode
Link to Ben C. on the Dodgers
Link to Dodgers depth chart
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to Fabian on Kershaw
Link to Fabian on May
Link to MLBTR on Estrada
Link to MLBTR on Cruz
Link to FG on Cruz/Ryan trade
Link to FG Ryan interview
Link to Ryan deception article
Link to other Ryan deception article
Link to info on Cruz’s eyes
Link to LASIK/baseball study
Link to MLBTR on Wainwright
Link to K-BB% leaderboard
Link to Mariners WAR leaderboard
Link to Jay Jaffe on Walker
Link to MLBTR on Cowser
Link to Down on the Farm Substack
Link to Jack in the Box offer
Link to Woodpeckers game story
Link to THT on worst endings
Link to THT on worst playoff endings
Link to high school game ending
Link to Fall Out Boy song
Link to Fall Out Boy lyrics
Link to Billy Joel lyrics
Link to thread on Joel’s fandom
Link to L.A. Times on Fall Out Boy
Link to Pesca on Fall Out Boy
Link to Bad Bunny song
Link to The Bear episode transcript
Link to Power Rankings leaderboard
Link to FG’s The Board
Link to The Bear episode transcript
Link to mitt in Catcher in the Rye
Link to Red Sox prospect list
Link to Schumaker/Arraez clip
Link to Ben on Ohtani
Link to softball mask EW episode
Link to listener emails database
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Derby field
Link to Odor profile
Link to Ross complaint
Link to Schifman on shadows
Link to Schifman on EW
Link to La Russa complaint
Link to 2003 Metrodome story
Link to 2004 Metrodome story

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The Angels started off Independence Day by announcing that Mike Trout had suffered a broken hamate bone in his left wrist and will miss at least the next four-to-eight weeks. That cuts short what had been his healthiest season since 2016; Trout had played in 81 of the team’s 87 games, and the costovertebral dysfunction in his back — something that’s going to remain a long-term issue — didn’t prevent him from playing center field daily. That wasn’t the only firework for the Angels, either; later that day, Anthony Rendon fouled a pitch off his lower leg, a painful enough blow that he needed help standing up and getting off the field. And if that weren’t enough for the fans in Orange County, Shohei Ohtani was pulled from his start with a then-undisclosed injury and walked off the field accompanied by a trainer — true horror movie material. His issue, at least, did not turn out to be serious, but it wasn’t the most festive holiday. Dropping the second of three games against the Padres, right after Juan Soto served a small but spicy helping of trash talk, removed any silver lining.

Angels announce that Mike Trout is going on the IL with a left hamate fracture.

That’s a massive blow for the Angels, who are already dealing with many injuries.

Jo Adell has been called up.

— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) July 4, 2023

Rendon’s X-rays of his shin came back negative, so for now, his injury is being diagnosed as a shin contusion. It’s still possible he ends up on the Injured List, but it appears that he’s avoided a significant injury. Thankfully for the Angels, they have better depth at third base than just a few months ago after the low-key acquisitions of Eduardo Escobar and Mike Moustakas in recent weeks. Neither are likely to replace the production the Angels are hoping to see from Rendon, but the position will likely not be a disaster in his absence.

Ohtani’s injury is connected to a blister, believed to be the result of the treatment for a cracked fingernail that pushed his start back by a day. Blisters have been tied to pitchers missing significant amounts of playing time; Josh Beckett is a primary example. But if this is just due to Ohtani’s acrylic nail deteriorating over the course of the game, it doesn’t seem like anything concerning. He did, however, indicate that he won’t pitch in the All-Star Game, which stinks for viewers but is pretty small potatoes in the big picture. In any case, we basically already got the big All-Star-esque moment earlier this year, when Ohtani faced off against Trout with the WBC on the line. And even if Ohtani ends up missing a start with the Angels, there’s no problem with him continuing to hit.

But if injuries to Rendon and Ohtani aren’t big deals, the one to Trout most certainly is. The three-time MVP broke the hamate bone in his wrist while swinging at a Nick Martinez pitch in the eighth inning on Monday. While far from a career-affecting injury, it’s one that will keep him out of the lineup for one to two months. The Angels are heavily reliant on the production they get from their two megastars, so losing one of them for somewhere between a third and two-thirds of the remaining season is a particularly unwelcome sight. The team is right around .500 and just four games behind the Yankees for the last wild card spot, so we’re talking about a group with legitimate October aspirations. But the Angels aren’t alone; the Blue Jays, Mariners, Red Sox, and Guardians are all within two games of them in the standings, meaning every win has a lot of playoff leverage. Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers came into 2023 with a ton of question marks. Was a platoon of James Outman and Trayce Thompson truly the answer in center field? Was Miguel Rojas a sufficient backstop given Gavin Lux’s injury? Was Jason Heyward’s bat salvageable, and where would he play if it was? Was Miguel Vargas ready? The offense was hardly up to the standards of the team’s recent run.

They didn’t answer all those questions positively, but with the benefit of hindsight, the offense seems fine. The team is hitting a collective .243/.328/.446, good for a 110 wRC+. They’re one of the best baserunning teams in baseball. Mookie Betts can play shortstop now, which is neat. But they’ve exchanged those worries for one that has dogged every team in baseball over the years: Is there enough starting pitching to go around?

In the past week, the Dodgers were dealt two more blows on that front. One is a bump in the road: Clayton Kershaw’s sore left shoulder sent him to the IL Monday, where he hopes to make a minimum 15-day stay. That’s mildly concerning, but if Kershaw and the Dodgers are right, it’s just a temporary setback. One of Kershaw’s potential replacements got far worse news, however. Yesterday, the club announced that Dustin May will have elbow surgery to repair his flexor tendon, which means he’s done pitching in 2023. Read the rest of this entry »

Mookie Betts ended June the way he began it, by leading off the Dodgers’ half of the first inning with a homer, then adding another later on as one of his three additional hits. He bookended his month by doing so against the Yankees in Los Angeles on June 2, then against the Royals in Kansas City on June 30. Along the way, he added an additional five homers, boosting his season total to 22 (he hit his 23rd on Tuesday night against the Pirates), and he’s remained hot as July has begun. Not surprisingly, he’ll be the National League’s starting lineup in next week’s All-Star Game.

Betts has been on a leadoff homer binge this season. Just past the midway point, he’s hit nine already, including five in June, and three in an eight-day span as the month ended:

Betts’ total to date ties him for ninth on the single-season leaderboard, though he’s just four homers shy of the record, which was challenged by Jose Altuve last year, when he fell one short:

You’ll note that all but one of those 13 seasons has taken place in the Wild Card era (1995 onward), and over half of them have occurred in what we might call the Statcast era (2015 onward). Those high concentrations have plenty to do with the higher home run rates of recent seasons, and they also owe plenty to teams’ increasing willingness to bat power hitters first. Who doesn’t find the possibility of a quick 1–0 lead tantalizing? Read the rest of this entry »

Jacob Berry saw his prospect stock drop earlier this season. Highly regarded coming in, the sixth overall pick in last year’s draft had an abysmal .477 OPS in April and his .509 mark in May was barely better. Showing little resemblance to the player who’d raked first at the University of Arizona and then LSU, he fanned 41 times while logging just 25 hits, only two of which left the yard. Playing at High-A Beloit in Midwest League spring weather certainly didn’t help, but red flags were nonetheless flying. When our Miami Marlins Top Prospects list was published on May 31, Eric Longenhagen wrote that he was “content to have a hair trigger when it comes to sliding Berry because I was already skeptical… but deciding how much to slide him is challenging.” Our lead prospect analyst ultimately settled on No. 11 and a 40+ FV for the switch-hitter.

Berry’s June was markedly better. Rebounding from his two-month swoon, the 22-year-old third baseman slashed a solid .287.358/.447, with 10 of his 27 hits going for extra bases. Only one of them cleared the fence — his surprising lack of pop remains a concern — but overall, his success at the plate was much more in line with expectations. Despite understandable concerns, he remains a viable big league prospect.

What’s been behind his improved performance? Berry declined a recent interview request to discuss any adjustments he might have made, but he did sit down to discuss his hitting approach late in spring training. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Seattle Mariners. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about All-Star-roster minimums and maximums, what the Aroldis Chapman trade tells us about the how teams value prospects, Jake Diekman’s exploits with the Rays, Evan Longoria’s late-career contributions, and the same-named siblings of Carlos Pérez, Carlos Pérez, Wilmer Flores, Wilmer Flores, Wander Franco, Wander Franco, and Wander Franco. Then (45:59) they talk to Steve Wynn and Linda Pitmon of The Baseball Project about the band’s origins and longevity, its new album, the inspiration for its songs, its songwriting and recording process, its historical accuracy, ensuring that multiple eras are represented, being musical super-utility players, the band’s audience and place in its members’ musical careers, the musicians they’d want to recruit, and more, plus a Future Blast (1:35:36) from 2028.

Audio intro: The Baseball Project, “New Oh in Town”
Audio interstitial: The Baseball Project, “The All or Nothings”
Audio outro: The Baseball Project, “Screwball”

Link to All-Star rosters
Link to All-Star-selection fun facts
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Chapman trade
Link to Sheehan on the Chapman trade
Link to Meg on Chapman in 2015
Link to FG’s 2016 Chapman breakdown
Link to Diekman projection episode
Link to Ben on Longoria in 2015
Link to 2021-23 3B offense leaderboard
Link to Octavio Hernández Pernía
Link to FG name-linker pop-up
Link to story on Flores brothers
Link to Franco family photo
Link to Franco profile
Link to other Franco profile
Link to story on Pérez brothers
Link to Foreman quote
Link to stream Grand Salami Time!
Link to buy Grand Salami Time!
Link to The Baseball Project website
Link to upcoming tour dates
Link to Steve Wynn’s website
Link to Spin musician baseball preview
Link to The Dream Syndicate reissue
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Ellis LSD no-no video
Link to Emma B. on Ohtani’s June
Link to Dan S. on Ohtani projections

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I like to think I’m pretty tuned in to what’s going on in baseball each day. I check the news and the standings regularly, and my morning wouldn’t be complete without a quick scan of the leaderboards in all the major statistical categories. That being so, it’s rare that I’ll be caught off guard by a player’s ERA, or batting average, or WAR. That doesn’t mean it never happens, though, and when it does, I often feel compelled to share my surprise.

With that introduction as a clue, would you care to guess who leads the Rays in home runs? You know, the Rays who have more homers than any team in the American League. The Rays who rank second in baseball in runs scored and first in wRC+. The Rays who do all that despite playing in one of the least hitter-friendly home ballparks in the game. Yeah, those Rays.

It’s not All-Star first baseman Yandy Díaz or rookie sensation Luke Raley. It’s not Wander Franco, or Isaac Paredes, or anyone with the last name Lowe.

I’ll give you another hint: Two players are actually tied for the team lead in long balls, and one of them isn’t so hard to guess. Randy Arozarena hit his 16th homer of the season on Sunday, pulling even with the mystery player for first place, and only kind of ruining the guessing game I had planned. Then again, the title and featured image already gave it away, so it’s time I pull back the facade of this rhetorical device. No team in the American League has more home runs than the Rays, and no one on the Rays has more home runs than Jose Siri. Read the rest of this entry »

Last season, Shohei Ohtani had one of the greatest seasons in history that did not result in taking home an MVP trophy. His misfortune in 2022 was running into one of the best offensive campaigns that anyone living can remember, with Aaron Judge putting up a 207 wRC+ and 11.5 WAR without any known pitching skills to utilize. Most writers still don’t vote entirely or even primarily based on WAR-type metrics, so Judge setting a new American League single-season home run record, with 62, was also quite helpful. Fast forward to 2023, and Judge’s toe injury has basically ended any chance of him repeating his MVP feat, but Ohtani has been doing his best to ensure that even a healthy Judge would have had trouble doing so.

Ohtani’s never been a shabby hitter, with a .265/.364/.554 line, 146 wRC+, and 80 homers over the last two seasons. Those are star-level numbers, but not historic ones. This year is another matter entirely. He’s cranked his offense into overdrive and now stands at .306/.390/.670 with 31 homers as the Angels have played past the halfway point of the 2023 season. Over at Sports Illustrated, Emma Baccellieri made a solid argument that Ohtani’s June may have been the best month by an individual in major league history. He has crushed 10 homers in his last 16 games and now leads all of baseball in round-trippers, three more than Atlanta’s Matt Olson.

With a few exceptions — he’s not stealing 131 bases, and Chief Wilson can rest comfortably with his 36 triples — achievements of the past aren’t safe from Ohtani’s onslaught. And with the recent surge in his power numbers, he is now on a real approach pattern to eclipsing Judge’s AL home run record. This mark has been in Yankees pinstripes in one form or another since 1920, when Babe Ruth broke his own record that was earned wearing a Red Sox uniform.

So will Ohtani pass Judge? Well, I’ve got a projection system, and it would be a crime to not ask it. Read the rest of this entry »