Ben Lindbergh is joined by Hannah Keyser and Zach Crizer, formerly of Yahoo Sports and the Bandwagon podcast, to discuss at least one listener-nominated, previously overlooked topic from 2023 about each MLB team.
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
“What if I voted for Bartolo Colon?” The thought crossed my mind on more than one occasion as I counted the number of candidates I intended to vote for on my 2024 Hall of Fame ballot on my fingers. Last year, I only voted for seven, which felt uncharacteristically stingy given the history of my advocacy. In the weeks and days leading up to my putting pen to paper, this time I had nine in mind. Why not top it off to a nice round number?
I’ll take you through my process in answering this pressing question soon enough. This is my fourth year with an actual ballot, but filling one out hardly feels like old hat, even with 23 years of analyzing Hall of Fame elections under my belt, and 21 years of doing so while armed with the system that became JAWS (the official 20th anniversary of the metric’s introduction is next week). While so many mentors, peers, and colleagues have come and gone in this racket, I’m grateful to have stuck around long enough to have earned the right to vote, and it’s a privilege I look forward to, even with the heightened scrutiny that comes with it. Read the rest of this entry »
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
2024 BBWAA Candidate: Bartolo Colon
Pitcher
Career WAR
Peak WAR Adj.
S-JAWS
W-L
SO
ERA
ERA+
Bartolo Colon
46.2
35.5
40.9
247-188
2535
4.12
106
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Bartolo Colon could throw strikes. At the outset of his 21-year major league career, Colon blew 100-mph fastballs by hitters, and within a couple years showed off top-of-the-rotation form. Over a decade and more than half a dozen teams later, following a controversial arm surgery, Colon’s ability to locate his sinker to both sides of the plate with precision gained him greater renown. In one 2012 start, he threw 38 consecutive strikes.
Indeed, it was the second act of his career — or was it the third, or even the fourth? — during which Colon became an unlikely cult favorite. The Dominican-born righty had listed at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds while in the minors, but his biggest contract extension had a weight clause centered at 225 pounds. After suffering a torn rotator cuff at the tail end of his Cy Young Award-winning 2005 season, he spent nearly half a decade knocking around before undergoing experimental injections of fat and stem cells into his shoulder and elbow, and by the time he reemerged in his late 30s, he was officially listed at 285 pounds. His everyman build made him more relatable, but it camouflaged an exceptional athleticism. “Big Sexy” — the nickname given to him by teammate Noah Syndergaard, and later the title of his 2020 autobiography — could field his position with enough flair to execute a behind-the-back throw. He could high-kick like a Rockette, and do splits like a ballerina. “One of the stereotypes of Bartolo is because he has an atypical body type for a pitcher, he is not in shape,” said Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro in 2004. “But this guy is amazingly strong. He’s like [former Houston Oiler running back] Earl Campbell from the waist down. He is a strong, strong man, and that core strength is what it’s all about.” Read the rest of this entry »
With this year’s MLB free agent market enlivened by international players, Ben Lindbergh talks to three guests about three baseball-rich countries. First, Jeeho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency joins to discuss the response in South Korea to Jung Hoo Lee 이정후’s signing, Shin-Soo Choo 추신수’s forthcoming retirement, the legendary career of Choi Dong-won, and the ongoing reckoning with bullying in the KBO and Korean culture at large. Then (44:21) Ben talks to NPB historian Rob Fitts about trailblazing Japanese pitchers Eiji Sawamura and Masanori Murakami, and how baseball would be different if Japanese players had entered MLB earlier. Lastly (1:12:02), Ben brings on Sami Khan, co-director of The Last Out, a documentary about three Cuban players who hoped to make the majors, to discuss their harrowing defections and how a talent exodus affected Cuban baseball.
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens continue a cherished podcast tradition by conducting the 11th annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft, in which they select 10 minor league free agents each and compete to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2024.
Last Sunday’s column included my opining that Joey Votto should retire rather than sign with a team other than the Cincinnati Reds, thus making him a one-franchise player. My friend Sam — a bona fide baseball nerd — read the column and proceeded to share an interesting thought when I ran into him at the coffee shop we both frequent. Being of the belief that players sticking with one team is a good thing — I think most fans would concur — Sam wonders if tweaking the Competitive Balance Tax in a manner that would incentivize teams’ ability to re-sign their free agents might be possible. For instance, if player X were to sign a one-year $20M contract with a new team, the entire amount would factor into the team’s payroll. Conversely, if Player X re-signed with his old team, a lesser amount ($10M?) would count toward it.
Sam didn’t mention Mookie Betts, but he may well have had him in mind. With their superstar outfielder one year away from free agency, and the CBT an acknowledged factor, the Red Sox traded Betts, along with David Price, to the Dodgers, thereby slashing over $40M from their forthcoming 2020 payroll. The deal put them a reported $18M below the threshold. Whether or not Betts would have opted to re-sign with Boston is another question, but the CBT clearly played a role in his departure.
Ben Clemens brought up basketball’s “Bird Rights” as a parallel when I asked for his thoughts on Sam’s idea. As my colleague pointed out, NBA teams get to exempt hometown stars from the salary cap in some situations. Of course, MLB doesn’t have a ceiling. Nor does it have a floor, which further complicates the issue. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Baseball Prospectus editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein discuss all the fallout from the Dodgers’ record-breaking signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, including how it affects fan perceptions of the Dodgers, whether it’s good for MLB to have a heel, whether there’s a more virtuous way to win, the terms of the contract and their expectations for Yamamoto, whether the Dodgers will make even more moves, the impact on the teams that missed out on Yamamoto, and much more.
Late Thursday night, while Shohei Ohtani was awkwardly smiling on the jumbotron at the Rams game in Los Angeles, the Dodgers were wrapping up the details on a massive, 12-year contract for 25-year-old Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the amount of $325 million. The Dodgers will also pay roughly $50 million in posting fees to Yamamoto’s former NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, making the Dodgers’ total commitment a whopping $375 million, with $50 million of the deal to be paid via signing bonus. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the contract also has two opt-outs, but we don’t yet know when in the deal they occur.
This is a huge deal in several manners of speaking. First, it is literally a huge deal, the largest-ever contract for a pitcher, eking past Gerrit Cole’s $324 million pact from 2019. Between the $700 million guaranteed to Ohtani and the $325 million heading to Yamamoto, the Dodgers have committed well over $1 billion dollars to free agents (spread out over the next decade-plus) already this offseason. For context, in 2019, the Royals sold for $1 billion. The Dodgers’ estimated payroll for 2024 now stands at $285 million, $50 million more than their 2023 mark.
Here are Dan’s ZiPS projections for Yamamoto. He passed along that the projection system would recommend a 12-year, $320 million deal for him.
ZiPS Projection – Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2024
14
7
3.52
26
26
171.3
130
67
22
35
167
118
3.8
2025
14
7
3.54
26
26
170.3
132
67
23
34
166
117
3.8
2026
14
7
3.54
26
26
173.0
135
68
23
33
168
117
3.8
2027
14
7
3.59
27
27
170.7
137
68
24
32
165
116
3.6
2028
14
7
3.69
27
27
170.7
140
70
25
32
163
113
3.4
2029
13
8
3.77
26
26
164.7
139
69
24
32
154
110
3.1
2030
12
8
3.78
24
24
157.3
134
66
23
31
145
110
3.0
2031
12
7
3.83
23
23
150.3
129
64
22
30
137
108
2.8
2032
11
7
3.88
22
22
141.3
123
61
21
29
126
107
2.5
2033
10
7
3.97
21
21
131.3
116
58
20
28
115
105
2.2
2034
9
6
4.15
19
19
121.3
109
56
19
27
104
100
1.8
2035
8
6
4.27
17
17
109.7
101
52
18
26
91
97
1.5
Projections systems like ZiPS tend to flatten and smooth the peaks and valleys of everyone’s performance, so think of this as a projected annual average for Yamamoto’s production. His peak years, which should begin immediately, are likely to be better than the front end of these projections. Read the rest of this entry »
I don’t think J.T. Realmuto ever got enough credit for his remarkable season in 2022. It was easily the finest performance of his career. With 22 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 128 wRC+, in addition to his typical Gold Glove defense and trademark durability, he produced a personal-best 6.5 WAR, claimed All-MLB First Team honors for the second time and finished seventh in a stacked NL MVP race.
What made his 2022 season so impressive were the demographics of it all. We’re not talking about a center fielder in his 20s; Realmuto’s 6.5 WAR was the highest for a regular catcher age 31 or older since Javy Lopez in 2003. As a matter of fact, only four catchers have ever put up more WAR in a single season after their 31st birthday: Lopez, Gary Carter, Roy Campanella, and Josh Gibson.
Welcome back to college baseball conference realignment. For those of you who missed the first class, here’s a quick summary: The people who run college football are drunk with power, and are tearing up decades of geographical and cultural alignment in order to chase the biggest TV deals they can get. Good for them. Unfortunately the rest of college sports — perhaps the whole of American higher education, less those Ivy League dorks whose personal grievances become national news — is merely a vestigial appendage of the Football Bowl Subdivision.
The realignment of 2023-24 leaves two important questions to be answered, one urgent, the other existentially important. The urgent question: What happens to Oregon State and Washington State, the two schools left without a chair by Pac-12 collapse? This question is arguably more important for baseball than it is any other sport, as Oregon State is a national powerhouse. The important question: Can the ACC hold it together, or is it too bound for a Pac-12-type implosion?
We got some clarity on both of those questions this week, as Oregon State and Washington State found a new partnership with the WCC (though not for baseball), while Florida State is taking its first step toward leaving the ACC. Read the rest of this entry »
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