Tyler Black could follow in his father’s footsteps, but that’s not the path he’s pursuing. What the 22-year-old Toronto native wants to do is to play in the big leagues — a goal that is very much within his reach. Drafted 33rd overall in 2019 out of Wright State University, Black is an on-base machine who ranks No. 12 on our recently-released Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects list.

The road not being taken is related to the youngster’s dream. His father is former TSN and CTV broadcaster Rod Black, whose three-plus decades behind the microphone had him calling games in a variety of sports, including baseball (one of his on-air partners was World Series hero Joe Carter). I asked the infielder/outfielder if he ever envisions himself describing the action on a diamond, court, or even a sheet of ice.

“Maybe when I’m done playing,” Black told me during his stint in the Arizona Fall League. “I’ve never really thought about it seriously, but I can say that it was definitely great growing up around sports. My dad used to announce Blue Jays games, Toronto Raptors games — pretty much everything — so I was always around ballparks, and around athletes. That kind of put me into the game.”

Legendary Blue Jays broadcaster Jerry Howarth, who was alongside Tom Cheek when the latter emoted “Touch ’Em All Joe!” — a moment that will forever live in Canadian baseball lore — is among those who reached out after Rod Black’s son was drafted by the Brewers. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2022, I once again had an opportunity to interview numerous people within the game. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came via an assortment of Q&As, feature stories, and the Talks Hitting series. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations, with the bolded lines linking to the pieces they were excerpted from.

——

“I’d say Mike Trout is underrated. For one, he’s coming off an injury. Two, he’s playing with a two-way player who everybody goo-goo and ga-gas about. I’ll say this about Clayton Kershaw as well: When you do it for so long, people kind of get bored. It just becomes ho-hum.” — Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox pitcher

“It was like, ‘Oh, this guy isn’t going to turn into a pumpkin. He’s real. There’s substance to this, he’s not just this novelty act with the shimmy and the shake, and the drop down.’ There are objective measures that say this guy is a high-level starter. Now it’s, ‘OK, how do we continue to build on that?’” — Matt Blake, New York Yankees pitching coach

“It’s part of what led us to George Kirby. He had very good stuff on draft day that turned into elite stuff once he got into our system… We feel like we can take good stuff and turn it into great stuff. We feel like we can take average stuff and turn it into plus stuff. It’s hard to look at a pitcher who only has stuff and say we’re going to make him into ‘a guy.’” — Jerry Dipoto, Seattle Mariners President of Baseball Operations Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley close the book on 2022 by bantering about the year in Effectively Wild, the Marlins signing Jean Segura, the heretofore-unsuspected existence of Charles Leblanc, and the pitch-calling accuracy of 10 retiring umpires, plus followups on how the zombie runner affects plate appearance totals, Lars Nootbaar’s pepper grinder, the year-to-year consistency of team replay-review success rates, and overlooked Rockies stories. Then (38:51) they discuss at least one listener-nominated topic about each American League team that they had previously overlooked on the podcast in 2022 (including mini Stat Blasts about the most unique team lineups used per season and Anthony Santander and team winning percentages when a player hits at least two homers), plus a Past Blast (1:46:52) from 1949.

Audio intro: Other Lives, “End of the Year”
Audio outro: Blue Rain Boots, “2023”

Link to nVenue episode
Link to MLBTR on Segura
Link to projected team WAR
Link to retiring umps story
Link to Umpire Scorecards
Link to Hallion punchouts video
Link to story on ump improvements
Link to story on ump age
Link to EW episode on NL teams
Link to pepper grinder story
Link to tweets about Nootbaar
Link to replay success rates
Link to success-rate spreadsheet
Link to stat correlations
Link to SP stat correlations
Link to more stat correlations
Link to pitching stat correlations
Link to xstats correlations
Link to Freeland clip
Link to Pint story
Link to Rockies scoreboard
Second link to Rockies scoreboard
Link to 2022 SP WAR
Link to Baker deli story
Link to Craig Wright on Vogt
Link to UPI Vogt story
Link to Vogt homer video
Link to Vogt ref impression 1
Link to Vogt ref impression 2
Link to Ringer best sports moments
Link to highest BABIPs
Link to OAA behind pitcher
Link to FG on the righty shift
Link to Jays Journal on Gausman
Link to The Athletic on Gausman
Link to Jay Jaffe on Gausman
Link to FG on Jays shifting
Link to Kwan pinball story
Link to swing rate leaderboard
Link to CtC on Gonzalez
Link to story on Gonzalez’s swings
Link to story on Harry Ford
Link to story on Great Britain/WBC
Link to 2+ home run spreadsheet
Link to immaculate innings story
Link to best second-half hitters
Link to Harold Ramírez story
Link to Boston.com on Eck
Link to The Ecktionary on Twitter
Link to Ecktionary glossary
Link to The Athletic on Eckersley
Link to Eck on “pair of shoes”
Link to CBS Sports on Cuas
Link to The Athletic on Cuas
Link to Cuas MLBN video
Link to Cuas on his debut
Link to article on Meadows
Link to Rodriguez report
Link to Rodriguez return story
Link to lineups spreadsheet
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to previous lineups Stat Blast
Link to RP WPA leaders
Link to fastest four-seamers
Link to story on Cruz and Arraez
Link to ultimate grand slams
Link to Cabrera robbery
Link to article on Cabrera
Link to Pinstripe Alley on Cabrera
Link to 1949 story source
Link to Dodgertown site
Link to story on Rickey innovations
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter

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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens continue a cherished podcast tradition by conducting the 10th annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft, in which they select 10 minor league free agents each and compete to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2023. First they explain the history and ground rules of the draft, and then they start making their selections (18:11), followed by a Past Blast (1:20:02) from 1948.

Audio intro: Greg Brown, “Laughing River”
Audio outro: Buzzcocks, “Playing for Time”

Link to eligible free agents
Link to WAR of past selections
Link to the draft at the EW wiki
Link to competitions spreadsheet
Link to this year’s picks
Link to BA picks
Link to Down on the Farm (hitters)
Link to Down on the Farm (pitchers)
Link to Down on the Farm (signings)
Link to VEB on draftees
Link to 1948 story source
Link to SABR on Braves Field
Link to SABR on neon foul poles
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Even without Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa — and with just a trickle of compelling new candidates — this year’s BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot doesn’t lack for controversy or tough decisions. The issue of performance-enhancing drugs continues to stand in the way of the candidates with the gaudiest statistics, and voters must also confront the matter of how much weight, if any, to accord the ballot’s notorious character clause. But with a deadline of December 31, a voter can deliberate for only so long, and so five weeks after my envelope arrived in the mail, it’s time to turn this thing around.

This is my third year with an actual ballot, but filling one out hardly feels like old hat, even with 21 years of analyzing Hall of Fame elections, and 19 years of doing so while armed with the system that became JAWS (next year, I’ll do something to celebrate). While so many mentors, peers, and colleagues have come and gone in this racket, I’m grateful to have stuck around long enough to have earned the right to vote, and it’s a privilege I embrace, even with the heightened scrutiny that comes with having a ballot.

In the weeks since the Hall unveiled this year’s 28-candidate slate, I’ve analyzed the top 17 candidates at length. That leaves 11 one-and-done stragglers to cover in early January, none of whom are in serious consideration for space on my ballot; indeed, none of those 11 has secured a single vote from among the 70 published in the Ballot Tracker as of 12:01 AM ET Thursday, but their careers deserve a proper valedictory. While I’ve mostly known whom I planned to include, I went through my full process before finalizing its contents, just as I did with my virtual ballots; particularly given my recent attempts to update the pitching side of JAWS, it never hurts to take another look. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Carlos Correa’s contract limbo, the Pirates signing Rich Hill, the Rangers signing Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox signing Corey Kluber, the Blue Jays trading Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho, the Braves extending Sean Murphy, and the Phillies signing Craig Kimbrel. Then (39:51) they discuss at least one listener-nominated topic about each National League team that they had previously overlooked on the podcast in 2022 (including a Stat Blast at 1:12:53 about the decline in qualified hitters and hitters with 700-plus plate appearances), plus a Past Blast (1:44:29) from 1947.

Audio intro: Carl Smith, “I Overlooked an Orchid”
Audio outro: Harvey Danger, “I Missed It”

Link to article on “Dead Week”
Link to 2014 Correa injury
Link to Heyman on Correa
Link to Puma on Correa
Link to 2022 Correa injury
Link to MLBTR on Hill
Link to Hill quiz
Link to EW wiki on Hill
Link to MLBTR on Eovaldi
Link to FG SP depth chart
Link to MLBTR on Kluber
Link to MLBTR on Varsho
Link to MLBTR on Murphy
Link to MLBTR on Kimbrel
Link to story on Heredia swords
Link to Stathead on Heredia
Link to info on Heredia demotion
Link to info on Heredia promotion
Link to MLBTR on Heredia
Link to 2022 roster report
Link to Battery Power on Heredia
Link to Infinity Gauntlet story
Link to Brewers bell story
Link to Nootbar ASB story
Link to Nootbaar grinder origin
Link to Nootbaar grinder story
Link to Thompson/Kile story
Link to Laurila on Thompson
Link to info on Robertson demotion
Link to Robertson error
Link to Jeff Albert story
Link to story on Morel’s homer
Link to story on homer prediction
Link to fist-bump photo
Link to team attendance cost
Link to D-backs/Rays comparison
Link to Dodgers celebration
Link to Dodgers Reddit thread
Link to 2022 Clutch leaders
Link to Stathead on Flores split
Link to Doval story
Link to Doval pitch usage
Link to 2022 fastest pitches
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet
Link to teams with one qualifier
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to research on days off
Link to more research on days off
Link to load management article
Link to more on load management
Link to Nate Fisher story
Link to Reddit thread on Friedland
Link to Friedland’s LinkedIn
Link to Defector on Mets replays
Link to replay-challenge leaders
Link to replay success rates
Link to WaPo on Doolittle
Link to Washingtonian on Doolittle
Link to Musgrove trip website
Link to MLB.com on Musgrove
Link to Musgrove pitch
Link to Musgrove’s Polaroids
Link to Stathead on Phillies saves
Link to minor league leaderboard
Link to Pirates Reddit thread
Link to MLBTR on Kendall
Link to Greene’s pitch usage
Link to Ben Clemens on Greene
Link to BA on Greene’s fastball
Link to FG on Greene’s fastball
Link to MLB.com on Robinson
Link to EW on catcher bias
Link to MLB.com on Rox prospects
Link to 1947 story source
Link to Doby SABR bio
Link to SABR on integration
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Craig Wright on Doby
Link to Wright on Doby/Boudreau
Link to Nootbaar grinder
Link to Nootbar framed photo
Link to Nootbaar unframed photo
Link to Nootbar uninscribed ball
Link to Nootbar inscribed ball

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This month I had the honor of filling out a Hall of Fame ballot for the third time, and once again I put checkmarks next to 10 names. As I wrote in last year’s explanatory column, I am both “a Big-Hall guy” and willing (albeit begrudgingly) to look past steroid implications. As I see it, the story of baseball in this era can’t be told without Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, each of whom got my vote.

That the story could reasonably be told without some of the names I’ve chosen to checkmark is, admittedly, a valid argument against exercising the full allotment. This is something I’ve chewed on, but ultimately decided isn’t the way I want to approach my ballot. The Hall includes a plethora of players who weren’t the best of the best — Bruce Sutter was no Warren Spahn; Rick Ferrell no Johnny Bench — and while “X is in, so should Y” is imperfect logic, so too is “Y wasn’t a Bench or a Spahn, so isn’t worthy.” Determining who merits a plaque in Cooperstown is anything but an exact science.

My 2023 selections — asterisks indicating that I voted for the player last year — are Bobby Abreu*, Carlos Beltrán, Todd Helton*, Andruw Jones*, Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez*, Alex Rodriguez*, Scott Rolen*, Gary Sheffield, and Billy Wagner*.

Beltrán is new to the ballot. More on him in a moment. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the latest Carlos Correa-related reporting, the Giants’ signings of Michael Conforto and Taylor Rogers, the hijinks potential of twin teammates Taylor and Tyler Rogers, the final results of the free-agent-contract over/under draft, their cautious optimism about the Angels (28:35), the Reds’ spending constraints (39:19), owners complaining about Steve Cohen, how it feels for fans when a team’s identity changes, and Trevor Bauer’s reinstatement from the suspended list (55:16). Also: a Past Blast from 1946 (1:10:15) and Stat Blasts (1:14:57) about the most distinct batters to come to the plate in one half-inning, the most Retrosheet offensive events by one player in one game, and (with guest Stat Blaster Zach Kram of The Ringer) the highest and lowest team payrolls adjusted for MLB salary inflation. (Hint: The highest is not the 2023 Mets.) Plus a postscript!

Audio intro: The Boo Radleys, “Twinside”
Audio outro: Alvarado Road Show, “Baseball Stops for Christmas”

Link to Passan on Correa
Link to The Athletic on Correa
Link to Grant on Correa
Link to Gausman tweet
Link to Verducci on Correa
Link to Correa’s house-hunting
Link to details on Correa’s leg
Link to Ben C. on Giants signings
Link to Drellich on Cohen
Link to Ben L. on long contracts
Link to Reds spending tweet
Link to Alex Eisert on Reds moves
Link to WFAN Correa call
Link to KNBR Correa calls
Link to fan self-esteem study
Link to Jake Mailhot on Drury
Link to EW competitions/drafts
Link to ESPN on Bauer
Link to WaPo on Bauer
Link to L.A. Times on Bauer
Link to 1946 story source
Link to “defensive spectrum” wiki
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Stat Blast info
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to current team payrolls
Link to inflation-adjusted payrolls
Link to 2018 Craig Edwards post
Link to SIS on the Yankees’ defense
Link to team DRS rankings
Link to Langs tweet
Link to eclipse game box score
Link to MLBTR on Varsho
Link to outfield OAA leaders

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Hey, they had the money. After the sensational done-not-done saga that ended with Carlos Correa signing with the New York Mets, the Giants spent the rest of the week signing two of the top remaining free agents on the market. They added Michael Conforto on a two-year, $36 million deal that includes an opt out after the first year, then signed Taylor Rogers to a three-year, $33 million deal after that.

I ranked Rogers 19th among this winter’s crop of free agents, so let’s start with him. To me, he’s one of the best handful of relievers in the game. I think this was a great pickup for the Giants — and would have been a great pickup for any team in baseball given the contract he got. Rogers spent the first six years of his major league career with the Twins and was reliably excellent, accruing a cumulative 3.15 ERA and 3.01 FIP. That earned him a spot on AJ Preller’s must-trade-for list; the Padres acquired him last offseason to head a closer-by-committee situation in San Diego.

He split time between the Padres and Twins last year – he was traded in the Josh Hader deal at the deadline – and had his worst season as a pro. He posted a 4.76 ERA, easily his worst mark and in a year where league-wide offense declined markedly. It looks to me mostly like bad luck, though; he still posted a 3.31 FIP, but largely got BABIP’ed (.327) and sequenced (63.5 LOB%, compared to a league average mark of 72.6%) to death. He struck out more than 30% of opposing batters while walking just under 7%, and gave up home runs at roughly the same clip he always had. The biggest cause for concern, in my eyes, is that he gave up a raft of hard contact in Milwaukee, but given that he only threw 23 innings there, I’d put it in the too-small-of-a-sample-to-matter bucket. Read the rest of this entry »