To Swing (Or Not To Swing) At the First Pitch

© John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

Sorry for the Shakespearean title; the playoffs make me feel overly dramatic every year. This time, I was inspired by the markedly different approaches of the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies, who traded blows for five exciting games. The Padres (avatar: Juan Soto) work the count and take walks. The Phillies (avatars: Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper) sit dead red and swing from the heels. Styles make fights, to borrow a saying from a dying sport, and this one was dramatic.

It got me to wondering: how different were these two approaches, really? It certainly felt like the Padres were watching plenty of hittable first pitches fly by while the Phillies swung at breaking balls in the dirt, but that’s based on my sentiment while watching the game, sentiment that was surely informed by both my pre-existing biases and the broadcasters repeatedly mentioning the disparity throughout the series. Read the rest of this entry »


Fernando Tatis Jr. Is Coming Back. Now Where the Heck Is He Going to Play?

Fernando Tatis Jr
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

When the Padres shake off the hurt from their NLCS loss, they’ll have plenty of reasons to look back on this season as a success in its own right and a springboard to more and better in 2023. They won 89 games and advanced further into the playoffs than they had in 24 years. Along the way they knocked off not one but two 100-win teams, including the hated Dodgers. Their top three starting pitchers are coming back, as are at least six starters of the remaining eight defensive positions. Oh yeah, and they’ll have a full season of Josh Hader and Juan Soto to look forward to.

Here’s the best news: At some point this postseason, you probably looked at Ha-Seong Kim and thought, “Was he always their shortstop? Didn’t they used to have this other guy? Tall fella, Freddie something?”

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 2022 campaign was about as bad as his teammates’ season was good. Not only did he fail to play a single competitive game, but he also missed the season for pretty embarrassing reasons. First, he broke his wrist in a motorcycle accident — apparently one of several he suffered during the offseason — and thanks to the lockout the team didn’t find out the extent of his injuries until he arrived in camp in March. Then, just as his return seemed imminent, he tested positive for clostebol, an anabolic steroid, which cost him the rest of the year. As reasons for missing an entire season go, a careless and avoidable injury followed by a careless and avoidable suspension are not ideal.

But he’s coming back next year. After being suspended the last 48 games of the regular season, plus 12 more in the playoffs, his return date should be April 20 against Arizona, barring unexpected setbacks from a second wrist surgery last week.

A lot of the talk around Tatis’ reintegration has centered on winning his teammates and Padres management back over. (My advice: A sincere and concise apology, follow-up conversations with individuals as needed, perhaps followed by a small gift to show contrition and re-establish an atmosphere of collegiality. I hear athletes send each other protein powder in lieu of flowers.) But that’s between him and his team, and besides, forgiveness is easy to come by when you’re a shortstop with a 153 career wRC+. Read the rest of this entry »


Contemplating a Yankees Shakeup in the Wake of the Astros’ Sweep

© Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

With a routine 73-mph comebacker off the bat of Aaron Judge, the Yankees’ season ended not with a bang but a whimper as the Astros completed their ALCS sweep to advance to the World Series for the second straight season, their third out of the last four, and their fourth out of six. Though two of this year’s ALCS games were decided by one run and another by two, the final result — the Yankees’ first time being swept out of a series since the 2012 ALCS — was a lopsided one, and it had an all-too-familiar feel.

Indeed, the Yankees have set a record by losing in five straight ALCS appearances (2010 by the Rangers, ’12 by the Tigers, ’17, ’19 and this year by the Astros). Including their 2015 AL Wild Card Game loss to the Astros, they’ve been bounced by Houston in four straight postseason meetings, an imbalance not unlike their own recent dominance of the A’s and Twins:

Back in July, Yankees manager Aaron Boone spoke of the need for his team to surmount the Astros, saying, “Ultimately, we may have to slay the dragon, right?… The narrative’s not to going to change until you beat them in the playoffs, if that day comes.” But with another series loss, their season has ended in disappointment. Even if it’s by way of a short series — one of just four (out of 10) in which the team with the better regular season record triumphed — it’s a blow that has sent the Yankees reeling. Read the rest of this entry »


The Well-Rounded Astros Are a Handful on Both Sides of the Ball

© Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Runs have been hard to come by this postseason. Through Sunday’s games, pitchers have done an extremely effective job of limiting opposing offenses, holding hitters to a collective .213/.279/.361 batting line and a .283 wOBA. They’ve struck out 26.7% of batters faced, which would rank as the highest postseason rate of this strikeout-friendly era despite regular-season rates dropping nearly a full percentage point this year. The expected stats back up the offensive struggles – or, perhaps more appropriately, the pitching achievements — of playoff teams so far. Batters’ .220 xBA, .287 xOBP, .372 xSLG, and .292 xwOBA would all be the lowest of the Statcast era. Pitching staffs have managed to limit home runs to 3.1% of plate appearances – the lowest rate since 2018 – and held run production to 3.72 runs per team-game, over half a run lower than in the regular season. It remains incredibly difficult to hit a baseball.

And yet despite that harsh run environment, the Houston Astros have thrived, sweeping the Mariners and the Yankees en route to their fourth World Series appearance in six years. All but one of their wins have been by a margin of one or two runs, but as close as they might have come, Houston’s opponents have yet to figure out how to beat a team that seems to be doing just about everything right. Since Justin Verlander allowed six runs over four innings in an uncharacteristically bad ALDS Game 1 start, the Astros pitching staff has allowed just nine earned runs in 68.0 innings (a 1.19 ERA), while their offense has outscored their opponents 31-18 through seven games. Read the rest of this entry »


Adley Rutschman on Learning How To Handle High Heaters

© Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Adley Rutschman batted .304 with a .581 slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs this season, and learning how to handle heaters up in the zone played a big part in that success. Prior to being drafted first overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2019 out of Oregon State University, the 24-year-old catcher wasn’t used to being attacked with elevated offerings. That changed when he entered pro ball. As a result, Rutschman found himself having to make both mental and mechanical tweaks as a hitter, and he’s done so with aplomb. The switch-hitting catcher is coming off a rookie season during which he logged a 133 wRC+ with 49 extra-base hits in 470 plate appearances.

Rutschman discussed his up-in-the-zone approach when the Orioles visited Fenway Park in late September.

———

On adjusting to professional pitchers:
“Comparing the pitching styles of college versus pro ball, one of the biggest changes I’ve seen is guys pitching up in the zone. Another is that, analytically, teams are more so taking into account what guys do well and working off of those strengths. In college, I feel like how teams pitched was very program-dependent.

“Up here, if guys have a good four-seam fastball, they’re usually pitching up in the zone. If they’ve got a good two-seam fastball, they’re attacking you horizontally. That was a big adjustment, learning to cover top to bottom instead of just in and out. Not that guys here don’t ever thrown in and out. They will, so there’s more variation. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians – Baseball Technology Fellow

Cleveland Guardians Baseball Technology Fellowship

Primary Purpose:
The Cleveland Guardians Fellowship program is designed to accelerate the pace of development and impact for people interested in working for our organization. Fellowship roles are focused on solving complex challenges, which involve developing new approaches, tools, and techniques to meaningfully drive the organization forward. Fellows will be exposed to work across multiple departments and have access to and be encouraged to use a suite of internal, proprietary resources.

We are seeking Fellows to join our Baseball Technology department. Each Fellow will work full-time with one of our minor league affiliates and report to the Baseball Technology, Player Development, and Baseball Operations departments. Fellows will be expected to manage the collection of multiple data streams and operate as a resource for both coaches and players. This position will include travel to away games.

The ideal candidate will be curious, creative, open-minded, and excited to work in a collaborative environment. The candidate will be able to clearly communicate with others, build strong relationships, and have the ability to present complex topics to a wide range of audiences. They will take the initiative to perform research in the areas of their choosing that advances the Guardians’ player development procedures and philosophies.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities
Baseball Technology:

  • Operate bat/ball tracking technology and other sports science technology.
  • Manage pre-game, in-game, and post-game video process.
  • Manage the corresponding data and video collection process and assist with interpretation & distribution.
  • Assist the Information Systems team with Baseball Technology related troubleshooting and support.

Coaching Staff Support:

  • Coordinate Advance Scouting Process with Minor League field staff.
  • Assist affiliate staff with various administrative tasks (i.e. daily scheduling, team travel).
  • Assist Minor League field staff with pre-game activities.

Baseball Development and Analysis:

  • Collaborate with coaching staff, Player Development, and Baseball Operations to monitor player goals and player progress.
  • Perform ad hoc research and analysis, both at the request of staff and independently.
  • Communicate findings and insights to Minor League Coaches, Players, and Player Development and Baseball Operations Departments.

Requirements:
The Cleveland Guardians are committed to developing and maintaining an environment that embraces all forms of diversity to enrich our core values, enhance our competitive position, strengthen our impact within our community, and foster a greater sense of belonging for our employees.

In this spirit, we know studies have shown that people from historically underserved groups – including women and people of color – are less likely to apply for jobs unless they believe they meet every one of the qualifications as described in a job description. We are most interested in finding the best candidate for the job and understand that candidate may bring certain skills and experiences to the role that are not listed above, but that would add tremendous value to our organization. We would encourage you to apply, even if you don’t believe you meet every one of our qualifications described.

  • Bachelor’s degree or Prior Professional Experience.
  • Demonstrated passion for at least one of baseball technology, scouting, baseball analytics, sports science, hitting or pitching analysis and/or biomechanics, strength and conditioning, motor learning, or other baseball/softball related field.

Skills:

  • Organization: Ability to create, maintain and execute a schedule with precision and agility.
  • Work Ethic: A relentless drive to collect more and better information.
  • Passion: Demonstrate a clear passion for the game, teammates, the organization, and learning.
  • Resourcefulness: Utilize organizational resources to develop and understand organizational philosophies.
  • Strategic Thinking: Employ a problem-solving mindset and strategic thinking.
  • Time Management: Ability to prioritize in a fast-paced environment.
  • Collaboration: Partner with staff and players and exhibit excellent written and verbal communication skills.

Preferred Experience:
While we are looking for a variety of diverse skill sets for this role, we know that past Fellows who have thrived in this role possessed certain skills that are best aligned to the game of baseball. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be better positioned to thrive in this role.

  • Conversational Spanish or better a plus.
  • Experience with video editing software (i.e. Adobe Premier) a plus.
  • Experience with SQL and statistical software (i.e. R, Python, Stata, SAS) a plus.
  • Experience in troubleshooting network, computer, and other device connectivity issues a plus.
  • Proficiency with Microsoft Office.
  • Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and publicly available research.

Standard Requirements:

  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Ability to work with diverse populations and have a demonstrated commitment to social justice.
  • Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25 lbs.

About Us:
In Baseball Technology, our shared goal is to identify and develop diverse players and front office teammates who contribute to our mission. By working together effectively and collaboratively, we create a family atmosphere that supports learning as we strive for excellence in everything we do. We believe that we will achieve our goals by making evidence-based decisions and creating environments that support our people and empower them to learn.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.


Effectively Wild Episode 1920: Pennants Fly Forever

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by FanGraphs writer (and Phillies fan) Michael Baumann, who covered the NLCS game in Philly, to recap the Phillies’ NLCS victory over the Padres, explain the minds of Phillies fans, celebrate Bryce Harper, review the Padres’ decisions, and much more, followed by breakdowns of the Astros-Yankees ALCS, the state and future of the Yankees, and the Phillies-Astros World Series matchup, plus a postscript and a Past Blast from 1920.

Audio intro: Herman’s Hermits, “Leaning on a Lamp Post
Audio outro: Billy Swan, “Swept Away

Link to Baumann on NLCS G3
Link to Baumann on NLCS G4
Link to Baumann on NLCS G5
Link to Esteban Rivera on Harper’s HR
Link to the Harper HR
Link to MLB.com on the Harper HR
Link to seismometer graph
Link to The Athletic on Melvin
Link to MLB.com on Melvin
Link to Grisham bunt/scoring change
Link to Profar check swing
Link to Ben Clemens on the Yankees
Link to Bader walk
Link to Mike Axisa on the Yankees
Link to story about Boone’s videos
Link to tweet about Ortiz
Link to StarTalk video
Link to 1920 story source
Link to SABR on Maharg
Link to SABR on the Black Sox in 1920
Link to Caminiti book
Link to Fiers confession
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Bryce Harper’s Game 5 Home Run Was a Master Class in Hitting

Bryce Harper
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Some are calling it a legacy at-bat. I think it’s one of the most impressive displays of pitch-to-pitch adjustments I’ve ever seen in a postseason game. Whatever way you want to describe it, all that matters is Bryce Harper sent his team to the World Series after five games of leading the Phillies’ offense with fantastic, historic hitting. If he hadn’t already proved the worth of his contract with an MVP performance in 2021, he did in this series, chewing up Padres pitching with eight hits in 20 at-bats, including two home runs, three doubles, and five RBI.

I can go on about Harper’s postseason hitting forever, but for this piece, I want to focus on his at-bat against Robert Suarez that gave Philadelphia the lead in the bottom of the eighth inning of the series-clinching victory. Nobody was better suited for that moment than the reigning MVP; after each pitch, you could see him processing his swings, which he took a lot of, in preparation for the next one. If there is one thing a hitter needs in the postseason when facing elite pitching, it’s pitch-to-pitch adjustments. Allow me to guide you through how Harper made his. Read the rest of this entry »


Not If, But When: Astros Dispatch Yankees, Advance to World Series

© Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball isn’t scripted or preordained. There’s no knowing who will win any given game; Jacob deGrom lost to the A’s this year and the Pirates swept the Dodgers. It’s a game of thin margins, and with huge volatility; some games a smashed line drive leaves the park, while others it finds a fielder’s glove. It’s a game defined by its uncertainty – but be honest, you knew the Astros were going to win on Sunday, right?

It sure didn’t feel that way at first. The Yankees shuffled their lineup yet again, and the new configuration paid early dividends. Leadoff hitter Harrison Bader looped a soft liner for a single. Two batters later, Anthony Rizzo flatly refused to get out of the way of a baseball headed in his general direction, as is his custom. He was rewarded with first base, and shortly with a run when Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres followed with singles. Rizzo added to the tally more conventionally in the second, doubling home a run to put the Yankees up 3-0.

Unfortunately for New York, the game moved inexorably forward, and so too did the Astros. Houston’s lineup is beatable, but it’ll take your best. Nestor Cortes didn’t have his in Game 4. He came out with his customary guile, changing speeds and mixing pitches through two scoreless innings. When he took the mound for the third, something changed.

His fastball, never blazing, lost another three ticks on average. He lost command over the pitch, too, throwing five straight outside the rulebook strike zone to Martín Maldonado to start the inning (one was called a strike). By the time he finished walking Jose Altuve, he’d given up on it altogether, looking to land sliders and cutters instead. Jeremy Peña made him pay; he didn’t respect the fastball at all, sitting on the cutter, and when Cortes hung one in an attempt to battle back into the count, Peña unloaded on it for a three-run homer. Read the rest of this entry »


Phillies, Harper Reign in the Rain, Clinch NLCS and World Series Trip

Bryce Harper
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

PHILADELPHIA — This was what the Phillies had in mind all along: Sweeping three home games to clinch the NLCS, the decisive game featuring a dominant Zack Wheeler performance, a Rhys Hoskins home run, and the other runs scored by the stars the Phillies brought into supplement him — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto. And atop it all, Harper, battling to break through against an unhittable reliever, at long last flicking a 98.9-mph slider off the outside of the plate and into the seats.

“I told [hitting coach Kevin] Long before I walked up the steps,” Harper recounted at his postgame press conference. “I said, ‘Let’s give them something to remember.'”

The ensuing at-bat was the most memorable of Harper’s already storied career, turning a 3–2 deficit into a 4–3 pennant-clinching win. An excitable but anxious crowd brought from despair to ecstasy, a dugout full of postseason novices leaping over each other and onto the field to celebrate, and the $330 million man, the one-time child prodigy now a week on the gray side of 30, cantering around the bases.

“J.T. set the tone and put pressure on them right away with a base hit. Then it’s the MVP, right? It’s the showman,” Hoskins said. “This guy finds ways in big situations every single time. I don’t even know how many times he did it this series.”

As much as Harper joined this team with precisely this kind of moment in mind, elements of this victory were not planned. Several years of false starts after the shift out of rebuild mode in the late 2010s, for example. Or a midseason managerial change. Or a sudden rainstorm that almost derailed the whole enterprise and brought the series back to San Diego. No matter. Within minutes of Harper’s home run, Calum Scott and Tiësto’s cover of “Dancing On My Own” was piping through the Citizens Bank Park loudspeakers, and lampposts were already being climbed at Broad and Locust. Read the rest of this entry »