Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether changing managers is at all responsible for the Phillies’ recent success, the Yankees’ almost unparalleled winning-percentage pace, the Royals’ historically terrible pitching performance and the pressure on their pitching coach, another Taylor Ward/Tyler Wade broadcaster slipup, Anthony Rendon’s season-ending surgery, Michael Lorenzen’s comments about baseball slipperiness and MLB’s new mud mandate, a tough-negotiating teen fan’s price for J.J. Matijevic’s first career home run ball, a persuasive display of the minor-league ball/strike challenge system, the major league promotions of Riley Greene and Oneil Cruz, and Lorenzo Cain’s career, plus Stat Blasts (1:15:51) about an entire lineup turning over in a single game and losing pitchers who made the last out of a game, and (1:30:21) a Past Blast from 1865.
What is your favorite baseball memory? I posed that question to 10 major league players, and in nearly every instance, the response began with a question of their own: “Does it have to be from my own career?” While all were happy to share one (or more) meaningful memory from their time in the big leagues, it was primarily magic moments from their days as fans and/or young amateurs that stood out the most.
“I have two. Being able to have all of my family members at the All-Star game with me in San Diego in 2016 is one. The other is having my family with me in London, England for the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry series [in 2019]. They were all with me for the [2018] World Series as well, so there are actually three: All-Star Game, World Series, and being able to travel all the way to London, halfway around the world, to watch me play. In no particular order, those would be my favorite baseball memories.” Read the rest of this entry »
The Yankees lost a rollercoaster game to the Blue Jays in Toronto on Sunday, bringing their nine-game winning streak to an end. The streak — the team’s second-longest of the season — helped the Yankees open up a double-digit lead in the American League East; even with the loss, New York is 49-17, 11 games ahead of Toronto (38-28). Two and a half months into the season, the Yankees’ performance has called to mind those of other recent powerhouses, including their hallowed 1998 squad. Given that they’ve matched the 1998 team’s record through 66 games, it’s worth taking a closer look.
The Yankees not only have the majors’ highest winning percentage (.742) and largest run differential (143), they’re miles ahead of the competition. Their winning percentage is 95 points higher than that of the second-ranked Mets (.647), who are playing at a 105-win clip, while their run differential is 29 runs better than the second-ranked Dodgers (114). Through 66 games, they’re tied for the fourth-highest win total of the live-ball era (since 1920):
Best Records Through 66 Games Since 1920
Tm
Year
W
L
Win%
Final W
Final L
Final Win%
Result
SEA
2001
52
14
.788
116
46
.716
Lost ALCS
NYY
1928
50
16
.758
101
53
.656
Won WS
NYY
1939
50
16
.758
106
45
.702
Won WS
PHA
1929
49
17
.742
104
46
.693
Won WS
BRO
1955
49
17
.742
98
55
.641
Won WS
DET
1984
49
17
.742
104
58
.642
Won WS
NYY
1998
49
17
.742
114
48
.704
Won WS
NYY
2022
49
17
.742
—
—
—
—
BAL
1969
48
18
.727
109
53
.673
Lost WS
PHA
1931
47
19
.712
107
45
.704
Lost WS
NYY
1932
47
19
.712
107
47
.695
Won WS
BRO
1942
47
19
.712
104
50
.675
2nd NL
BRO
1952
47
19
.712
96
57
.627
Lost WS
PHI
1976
47
19
.712
101
61
.623
Lost NLCS
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
This shouldn’t be a surprise, given that just two weeks ago I noted that the Yankees’ start was the best since those 2001 Mariners. Of the other 13 teams with at least 47 wins through 66 games, 12 made the postseason and 10 the World Series, with seven winning the Fall Classic. But as you can see, most of those teams precede the expansion era, with its 162-game seasons (which began in 1961-62) and postseason playoffs (which began in 1969). For a more modern perspective, here’s a look at the best 66-game starts from the Wild Card Era (which began in 1995):
Best Records Through 66 Games Since 1995
Tm
Year
W
L
Win%
Final W
Final L
Final Win%
Result
SEA
2001
52
14
.788
116
46
.716
Lost ALCS
NYY
1998
49
17
.742
114
48
.704
Won WS
NYY
2022
49
17
.742
—
—
—
—
CLE
1995
46
20
.697
100
44
.694
Lost WS
BAL
1997
46
20
.697
98
64
.605
Lost ALCS
CHC
2016
46
20
.697
103
58
.640
Won WS
ATL
1998
45
21
.682
106
56
.654
Lost NLCS
CLE
1999
45
21
.682
97
65
.599
Lost ALDS
ATL
2003
45
21
.682
101
61
.623
Lost NLDS
NYY
2018
45
21
.682
100
62
.617
Lost ALDS
LAD
2019
45
21
.682
106
56
.654
Lost NLDS
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
All 10 teams besides these Yankees made the playoffs, but only two won the World Series, which is either an argument that many of these teams peaked too early or an indictment (or at least an acknowledgment) of the tournament-like nature of the period’s postseason, where five games mean more than 162. It is nonetheless worth noting that those 10 other teams finished the year with a collective .650 winning percentage, the equivalent of a 105-win season. These were some kick-ass squads.
The current Yankees may not have the top spot on either of those lists, but they’ve matched the 1998 Yankees to this point. Their .742 winning percentage puts them on pace to win 120 games, which would surpass the 2001 Mariners and 1906 Cubs for the single-season record. Some other hypotheticals:
If the Yankees go 48-48 (.500) the rest of the way, they would finish 97-65 (.599).
If they go 55-41 (.573) the rest of the way, they would finish 104-58 (.642), their best record since 1998. This is one win ahead of the record that we have them forecast for via our Projected Standings.
If they go 60-36 (.625) the rest of the way, they would finish 109-53 (.673), surpassing the 2018 Red Sox (108-54) for the best record for any team since the 2001 Mariners.
If they go 66-30 (.688) the rest of the way, they would finish 115-47 (.710), surpassing the 1998 Yankees for the highest win total in franchise history, while if they go 67-29 (.698), they would finish 116-46 (.716), surpassing the 1927 Yankees (110-44, .714) for the highest winning percentage in franchise history.
If they go 68-28 (.708) the rest of the way, they would finish 117-45 (.722), surpassing both the 2001 Mariners in wins and the AL record-holding 1954 Indians in winning percentage (.721, via a 111-43 record).
If they go 75-21 (.781) the rest of the way, they would finish with a .765 winning percentage (124-38), topping the 1906 Cubs’ .763 (116-36) for the all-time record.
I don’t advise holding your breath in anticipation of any of this beyond perhaps the first couple of bullet points. That said, I will note that only the last of those scenarios listed above would require the Yankees to improve upon what they’ve already done.
Prior to losing on Sunday, the Yankees had won 16 of 17 games and 42 of their past 52, with that longer streak bookended by their winning streaks of 11 games (April 22–May 3) and nine (June 9–18). Their 40-10 record over a 50-game stretch has been surpassed by only a small handful of teams in the Wild Card era, namely the 1998 Yankees (41-9), 2002 A’s (41-9), ’13 Dodgers (42-8), ’17 Cleveland (42-8), and ’17 Dodgers (43-7). The 1997 Yankees, 2001 Mariners, ’02 Giants, and ’01 and ’05 A’s all topped out at 40-10 over their best 50-game stretches. Note that most of these teams had several overlapping stretches with the same record.
Lest anyone think that the current Yankees have been playing only the majors’ dregs during those runs, their two long winning streaks have included three-game sweeps of the Guardians and Rays, and series wins over the Blue Jays (twice) and Twins — all teams in playoff positions now. They’re 18-7 against those teams; they have yet to play the Astros, the other AL team occupying a playoff slot. Overall, they’re 20-8 against teams with a .500 or better record, and 24-11 within the AL East, a division that has three other teams with a .537 winning percentage or better, two of which would qualify for the playoffs.
The Yankees can win all types of ways. They’re 14-3 in blowout games, those decided by five or more runs; their .824 winning percentage in that context is the majors’ best, though both the Dodgers (16-4) and Twins (16-14) have more wins (and losses) in such games. Meanwhile, they’re 14-5 in one-run games, where their .736 winning percentage is again tops, though the Blue Jays (17-8) have more wins (and losses) in such games.
In terms of run differential, the Yankees have outscored opponents by 143 runs, 2.17 per game, the fourth-largest margin of the live-ball era, and they have the second-best Pythagorean record of that period:
Highest Pythagorean Winning Percentages Since 1901
Team
Year
W
L
W-L%
Dif/Gm
pythW-L%
Result
NYY
1939
106
45
.702
2.70
.734
Won WS
NYY
2022
49
17
.742
2.17
.731
—
LAD
2020
43
17
.717
2.27
.712
Won WS
NYY
1927
110
44
.714
2.43
.709
Won WS
NYY
1942
103
51
.669
1.91
.698
Lost WS
STL
1944
105
49
.682
1.80
.697
Won WS
STL
1942
106
48
.688
1.76
.696
Won WS
LAD
2022
40
25
.615
1.78
.687
—
BAL
1969
109
53
.673
1.62
.679
Lost WS
HOU
2018
103
59
.636
1.62
.675
Lost ALCS
SEA
2001
116
46
.716
1.85
.672
Lost ALCS
CLE
1948
97
58
.626
1.74
.672
Won WS
LAD
2021
106
56
.654
1.66
.672
Lost NLCS
CLE
1954
111
43
.721
1.55
.672
Lost WS
NYY
1998
114
48
.704
1.91
.670
Won WS
PHA
1929
104
46
.693
1.89
.668
Won WS
NYY
1953
99
52
.656
1.68
.668
Won WS
NYY
1936
102
51
.667
2.15
.666
Won WS
NYY
1937
102
52
.662
1.96
.666
Won WS
CHC
2016
103
58
.640
1.56
.665
Won WS
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Since I’m comparing a team that has played 66 games against ones that played 154 or 162, I left the 2020 Dodgers in the mix, as they serve to remind that extremes can be reached in smaller samples. That said, the second-highest Pythagorean winning percentage from that pandemic-shortened season belonged to the Padres, whose .633 is just 64th among all teams since 1920, so it’s not like the leaderboard was overrun due to my choice or that those Dodgers’ dominance was illusory.
(Note that Baseball Reference, from which all of this data was culled, uses the 1.83 exponent in its Pythagorean formula [(RS^1.83 + RA^1.83)/(RS^1.83)], whereas our site uses the PythagenPat formula, in which the exponent is derived from the league’s per-game scoring environment via the formula X = ((RS + RA)/G)^.285. By the latter formula, the Yankees’ Pythagenpat winning percentage is .730, though when I started writing this the difference was a few points larger. No matter; by either formula, they’re only about one win shy their actual record, which is to say that whatever they’re doing isn’t particularly fluky.)
Inevitably, since they’ve matched the 1998 Yankees’ record to this point, the comparisons have already begun, particularly in a YES Network broadcast booth that often features David Cone and/or Paul O’Neill. Yes, it’s hard to set aside what we now know about the way that the careers of the “Core Four” — Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera plus Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada — as well as the memorable supporting cast (including Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre), turned out. While all but Posada had played critical roles in the team’s championship two years earlier, the Core Four and the rest of their roster had not yet solidified their places in history circa 1998. Those Yankees were merely on their way to becoming the dynasty that would win four titles in five years, with some even bigger campaigns and legend-defining October performances awaiting them individually.
Keep in mind that in 1998, AL teams averaged 5.01 runs per game, whereas this year, they’re averaging 4.17 per game, so any comparison of raw statistics is misleading; one needs to adjust for the scoring context. With that, the numbers tell us that so far, the current Yankees have been better on both sides of the ball relative to the league — particularly on the run prevention side.
1998 Yankees vs. 2022 Yankees
Yr
R/G
PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
WAR
WAR/650 PA
1998
5.96
6444
.288
.364
.460
116
36.1
3.6
2022
5.15
2496
.249
.328
.444
122
14.8
3.9
Starters
Yr
RA/G
IP
ERA
ERA-
FIP
FIP-
WAR
WAR/200 IP
1998
4.05
1061.1
3.85
85
4.11
91
18.4
3.5
2022
2.98
366.2
2.80
73
3.26
80
8.0
4.4
Bullpen
Yr
RA/G
IP
ERA
ERA-
FIP
FIP-
WAR
WAR/200 IP
1998
4.05
395.1
3.76
83
4.24
94
2.8
1.4
2022
2.98
225.2
2.95
77
3.20
79
3.4
3.0
On the offensive side, the 1998 squad was certainly more balanced, with left field (where Chad Curtis shared the job with Tim Raines, with Ricky Ledee, Darryl Strawberry, and Shane Spencer also making notable contributions) the only one without a regular with a wRC+ of 100 or better. Bernie Williams (158 wC+) led the way on the offensive side but played in just 128 games due to a knee injury. Behind him were a quartet of full-timers in the 122-129 wRC+ range in O’Neill, Jeter, Scott Brosius, and Tino Martinez, as well as a roster with incredible depth, with Torre able to call upon the likes of Strawberry, Raines, and later in the year Spencer and Chili Davis. Jeter topped the team with 6.2 WAR, with O’Neill (5.4), Brosius (5.0) and Williams (4.9) not far behind.
That team didn’t have anybody performing in the stratosphere of Aaron Judge, who’s hitting for a 189 wRC+ and is currently on pace for 61 homers and 9.3 WAR. Three other full-timers have a wRC+ of 135 or higher in Anthony Rizzo (142), Giancarlo Stanton (140) and Gleyber Torres (137), and catcher Jose Trevino (132) has been nearly as good in part-time duty. Yet this lineup has gotten underwhelming offensive contributions from left field (Joey Gallo‘s 96 wRC+) and shortstop (Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s 86 wRC+), and center fielder Aaron Hicks (90 wRC+) struggled so much early that Judge has started there 30 times.
As for the pitching, I wrote about the current Yankees’ rotation recently. The unit has been the key to the Yankees’ success thus far, consistently turning in good-to-great starts. All five starters — Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Severino — currently have an ERA- ranging from 51 (Cortes) to 87 (Severino), and a FIP- ranging from 70 to 92 (same guys), which is to say that they’ve been substantially better than league average. The 1998 Yankees’ big three (Cone, David Wells, and Orlando Hernandez) were every bit as good, but Pettitte (95 ERA-, 95 FIP-) was not at his best that year, and Hideki Irabu (88 ERA-, 115 FIP-) and fill-in Ramiro Mendoza (85 ERA-, 97 FIP- in 14 starts) were solid but more erratic. The older group averaged almost a full inning more per turn (6.55 vs. 5.56), but on a per-inning basis, the younger group has been stingier — and more valuable, at least as measured by our version of WAR.
That’s true of the bullpen as well, where it’s important to note that for as good as Rivera had already become, the 1998 season was not his best; his 77 FIP-, as strong as it was, would stand as the worst of his career besides his rookie season, 15 points higher than his eventual career mark. Lefty setup man Mike Stanton (120 ERA-, 103 FIP-), whose 79.1 innings was second among the relievers, was uncharacteristically subpar, and righty Jeff Nelson (84 ERA-, 87 FIP-) was only healthy enough to throw 40.1 innings; he missed over two months due to lower back woes.
While this year’s unit has lacked a dominant Aroldis Chapman, Clay Holmes (7 ERA-, 38 FIP-, and no, those aren’t misprints) has been ungodly thanks to his incredible sinker; in fact, his streak of consecutive scoreless outings (29) and innings (31.1) recently surpassed Rivera’s franchise records, set in 1999. Michael King (63 ERA-, 45 FIP-) has been dominant in a multi-inning role thanks to his four-pitch mix. The real question is whether the unit can continue to withstand the losses of Chad Green to Tommy John surgery and Jonathan Loaisiga to a shoulder strain, and whether Chapman is past his Achilles woes. It may take more than what’s on hand to keep this unit afloat.
It’s a long summer, and the season still has nearly 100 games to go. Regression lurks around every corner for a team playing at such a blistering clip as these Yankees; a losing streak or a couple of sluggish weeks at any point could put an end to the type of history-minded comparisons I’m making. On the other hand, continued play at this pace could invite more detailed comparisons than the thumbnail sketch I’ve provided. These Yankees’ pace and performances to date tell us that they have a chance to join the pantheon of great ball clubs. Solidifying their spot will be another matter.
Among catchers this season, Willson Contreras has been the talk of the baseball town. It’s easy to understand why: Here’s a fan favorite suddenly having a career-best season in a walk year. That grabs everyone’s attention. Suddenly, fans of others teams find themselves hoping that their favorite club will land him at the deadline or possibly this offseason. On the sabermetric side, there’s mounting evidence that Contreras has indeed taken a step forward. A catcher with this much offensive upside is a rarity, and with a robust 161 wRC+, the veteran has turned himself into prized jewel.
But enough about the Cubs or Contreras. Do you know who’s second in catcher wRC+ this season? That’s right, it’s Alejandro Kirk, who’s been the Blue Jays’ primary backstop ever since Danny Jansen headed to the IL with a fractured finger. His 146 wRC+ isn’t too far behind Contreras’, and the corresponding triple slash is a beauty: a .311/.392/.469 line is somewhat of a rarity in today’s game.
Kirk’s output might not be so surprising if you paid attention to his minor league numbers. Starting with Rookie ball in 2017, he raked at every level to which he was assigned, notching more walks than strikeouts, which led to a well-deserved big-league promotion in 2020. The Blue Jays gave him a proper chance the following year, and while he was serviceable, a 106 wRC+ in 189 plate appearances didn’t exactly leave a strong impression. This year, however, Kirk looks like the unstoppable force his minor league track record suggested he could be. Read the rest of this entry »
The St. Louis Cardinals played Friday night’s game in Boston with one catcher. Iván Herrera had been called up from Triple-A to replace the newly-sidelined Yadier Molina, but cancelled flights delayed his arrival. The highly-regarded prospect didn’t get to Fenway Park until the final inning of a 6-5 Red Sox win.
Asked who would have been used in an emergency had Andrew Knizner been injured, St. Louis manager Oliver Marmol named three possibilities: Edmundo Sosa, Brendan Donovan, and Nick Wittgren. That Marmol added, “Not necessarily in that order,” is intriguing, if not suggestive. Sosa and Donovan are infielders. Wittgren toes the rubber.
Might we have seen Wittgren, a 31-year-old pitcher with no professional experience at any another position, donning the tools of ignorance? It’s a definite possibility. Prior to the game, Marmol approached Wittgren and asked, “How do you think you’d do catching?” Wittgren replied that he’d be perfectly fine. Marmol responded with “I think so too.”
According to The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, Wittgren isn’t the first Cardinals pitcher to be designated (or at least hinted) as an emergency catcher. Jason Motte, who worked out of the St. Louis bullpen from 2008-2014 previously claimed that distinction. Even so, Motte had caught in the minor leagues. Wittgren would have been a novice.
When Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association signed a new Collective Bargaining Agreement this offseason, it included some interesting provisions designed to combat service time manipulation. Top prospects who finish first or second in Rookie of the Year voting will automatically gain a full year of service time regardless of when they’re called up, and teams that promote top prospects early enough for them to gain a full year of service will be eligible to earn extra draft picks if those players go on to finish in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting or the top five in MVP or Cy Young voting. The goal was to incentivize teams to call up their best young players when they’re ready, rather than keeping them in the minor leagues to gain an extra year of team control.
So far, the rule changes seem to have had their intended effect: three of our top five preseason prospects, and 11 of our top 50, earned an Opening Day roster spot out of spring training. The three prospects in the top five all play for American League teams, and with many others putting together impressive performances in the majors, the competition in the junior circuit for the Rookie of the Year award is quite compelling. Below is a table of the best rookie performers in the AL through June 15:
AL Rookie of the Year Leaders
Player
Team
PA
wRC+
OAA
WAR
Jeremy Peña
HOU
211
133
6
2.5
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
255
122
5
1.8
Bobby Witt Jr.
KCR
246
106
2
1.6
Steven Kwan
CLE
185
113
0
0.8
Jake Burger
CWS
144
135
-3
0.7
MJ Melendez
KCR
146
123
1
0.5
Adley Rutschman
BAL
86
69
—
0.2
Spencer Torkelson
DET
199
67
-1
-0.8
Player
Team
IP
ERA
FIP
WAR
Joe Ryan
MIN
48
2.81
3.75
0.9
Jhoan Duran
MIN
28.2
2.51
3.00
0.4
George Kirby
SEA
43
3.56
4.07
0.4
Reid Detmers
LAA
53
4.25
5.16
0.1
Jeremy Peña (ranked 30th on our preseason Top 100) has raced out ahead of the three top prospects referenced above to accumulate 2.5 WAR in just 54 games. That mark is the second highest among AL shortstops, and is the result of his phenomenal up-the-middle defense and his prowess at the plate. He’s slashed .277/.333/.471 (133 wRC+) so far this year with a solid if aggressive approach and some good power. The thump is a recent development after Peña filled out last year. He’s already blasted nine home runs and his peripherals support a profile that could reach 20 homers by the end of the season; his max exit velocity and barrel rate both sit above league average, with only his hard hit rate falling below. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: I have yet to see a Cape Cod League game — the plan is to do so Tuesday, but I’m just back from the Edward Gorey House in Yarmouth Port, which I highly recommend
2:06
Jay Jaffe: Connecting it back to baseball, official MLB historian John Thorn sent this along
In a season that has already produced two no-hitters (as well as two that would have counted as such before Major League Baseball tightened its definition of the feat), this week produced two near-misses on consecutive nights. On Tuesday night in St. Louis, the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas came within one strike of no-hitting the Pirates, and on Wednesday night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers’ Tyler Anderson fell two outs short of no-hitting the Angels. It’s fair to say that we’ve never seen anything quite like this.
Had either Mikolas or Anderson pulled off the feat, they would have joined Tylor Megill and four Mets relievers, who combined to no-hit the Phillies on April 29, and the Angels’ Reid Detmers, who no-hit the Rays on May 10. In the first of several coincidences that run through this tale, Detmers was actually Anderson’s opposite number on Wednesday, though he exited in the fourth inning after being roughed up for four runs. The Pirates, as it turns out, were already held hitless in a game on May 15 by the Reds’ Hunter Greene and Art Warren, but because they scored the game’s only run and didn’t need to bat in the ninth given that they were at home, the effort did not count as a no-hitter based on a 1991 ruling by MLB’s Committee for Statistical Accuracy.
(In the other non-no-hitter this year, six Rays pitchers held the Red Sox hitless for nine innings on April 23, but a seventh pitcher allowed a hit in the 10th inning.)
The 33-year-old Mikolas started the nightcap of a day-night doubleheader against a team that owns the NL’s weakest offense (3.42 runs per game) and its second-lowest batting average (.220). He only got as far as the second inning before allowing his first baserunner; with one out, he hit Canaan Smith-Njigba in the left foot with a slider, then erased him when Diego Castillo grounded into a 5-4-3 double play. Mikolas need another double play in the third after leadoff hitter Hoy Park reached on an error, as third baseman Brendan Donovan, who fielded his grounder, pulled Paul Goldschmidt off first base with a high throw. Yu Chang followed by working a seven-pitch walk before Michael Perez grounded into the needed 4-6-3 double play and Tucupita Marcano struck out, one of six punchouts on the night for Mikolas.
That 20-pitch third inning was the St. Louis righty’s most labor-intensive of the night. By comparison, Mikolas needed only 10 pitches in the fourth, which began with another error by the Cardinals’ defense; this time, Bryan Reynolds‘ fly ball glanced off the glove of left fielder Juan Yepez. He took second on the error, then came around to score after groundouts by Jack Suwinski and Daniel Vogelbach.
By that point, the Cardinals had already plated seven runs, and Suwinski’s grounder began a string of 17 consecutive batters retired that carried Mikolas to within one out of completing the no-hitter. He passed the 100-pitch mark while facing Castillo, who led off the eighth inning by battling for eight pitches before striking out. By the end of the frame, Mikolas had matched his MLB career high of 115 pitches, set on May 29 in a 5.2-inning grind against the Brewers (Lord knows how high he went during his three years in Japan).
Mikolas needed just two pitches to dispatch Perez on a grounder to start the ninth, and six more to get Marcano to fly to right. Facing Cal Mitchell for the final out, he fell behind 2–0, then got a called strike on a fastball and a swinging strike on a down-and-in curve. Mitchell fouled off another fastball, then hit a deep fly ball to center field. Gold Glove winner Harrison Bader leaped in pursuit of the ball but just missed as it went over his head and bounced off of the warning track and over the wall for a ground rule double. Mikolas exited to a hearty ovation from Busch Stadium’s 33,977 fans, leaving Packy Naughton to record the final out. Read the rest of this entry »
Jordan Montgomery hasn’t had the easiest of careers. While he established a name for himself with a solid rookie campaign in 2017, extended battles with injuries kept him off the mound in subsequent years. An underwhelming return in 2020 (5.11 ERA) raised questions about his future with the Yankees. But the much better peripherals (3.87 FIP, 3.65 xFIP) signaled a return to form, and the following year, Montgomery put together somewhat of a second breakout season, anchoring a rotation that was considerably more volatile than it is now.
Last year, Montgomery made an adjustment I thought was interesting but never got to write about, drastically raising his four-seam fastball usage in September, which had its pros and cons. On one hand, this newfound reliance on the hard stuff granted Montgomery the highest monthly strikeout rate of his career, as hitters found themselves whiffing at elevated fastballs. On the other hand, it led to a barrage of hard contact; the shape of Montgomery’s fastball isn’t great to begin with, and the corresponding decrease in sinker usage didn’t help, either.
Considering Montgomery’s excellent command, though, I believed he could make this new approach work in the long-term. So naturally, the development we’ve seen this season is… a near-abandonment of the four-seamer! His last five starts all featured a four-seam fastball usage under 10%; against the Tigers on June 5, Pitch Info thought he didn’t throw a single one. But Montgomery isn’t just tinkering with his pitch mix. Check out this side-by-side view of his typical arm slot in 2021 (left) versus 2022 (right):
It’s subtle, but you can see that Montgomery is throwing slightly less over-the-top than before. The Hawk-Eye readings bear this out: he’s lowered his average vertical release point from 6.70 feet to 6.47. What good is a different angle for? My theory is that it’s helped Montgomery exchange vertical movement for horizontal. His sinker is getting more drop and arm-side run than ever before, which is the sort of trade-off stuff models absolutely love (and opposing batters hate). It’s come at the cost of a worse four-seamer, but realistically, improving two diametrically opposed fastballs is a tall order. Montgomery made a choice to stick with one, and so far, it’s worked wonders.
Originally, this article had a much bigger focus on Montgomery. But looking around the league, I couldn’t help but notice several other pitchers who’ve placed a recent emphasis on their sinkers. There are the obvious names, like Clay Holmes and his triple-digit, bowling-ball sinkers, or basically the entire Giants rotation sans Carlos Rodón. Lesser-known examples (to the average fan, at least) include Mitch Keller, who, as noted by Michael Ajeto, switched to a sinker-slider combo after a disappointing start to his season. Oh, and did you know Robbie Ray reintroduced his long-dormant sinker? Wild. Maybe he reckons it’ll help curb the home runs. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, might be a shorter one today so I can get things together to go to the Combine.
12:01
Guest: How are your cats doing?
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: (thumbs up) Fran has settled into middle age and is now very chill, barely leaves the yard. Archie spends most of the day across the street in my neighbor’s yard but she’s cool with it. He hasn’t been in a fight that has warranted a vet visit for many months now.
12:03
Joe: Any feed back on the Braves Elian Corrorreal?
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Sadly no, he wasn’t part of their Extended group and so I don’t have anything on him. Flagged him just for hitting near the top of the DSL lineup but couldn’t find anyone who saw him.
12:05
James: Esteury Ruiz is popping off this year. Eye, power, base running, OF defense – he is just killing it so far. How much of the helium is legit?