If you’re a Milwaukee Brewers fan, you probably know the volume and quality of Colin Rea’s work the past two seasons. Last season, only 58 pitchers qualified for the ERA title, and Rea was among them. Over the past two seasons, Rea is second among Brewers pitchers in starts, innings, wins, and strikeouts, trailing only Freddy Peralta in those categories.

If you’re not a Brewers fan, you might have seen the news that Rea signed with the Cubs and thought, “Oh, is this guy the Padres tried to trade with a torn UCL? Is he back from Japan?”

In an offseason defined by the scarcity of starting pitching, it’s a bit jarring to see a starter sign for one year and $5 million. Especially one who just threw 167 2/3 innings in 2024. There aren’t enough of those guys in the entire league for every team to have two. Roughly 15 times as many people summited Mt. Everest in 2024 as qualified for the major league ERA title. And Rea got just $5 million? What gives? Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The Blue Jays came into this offseason with one glaring need: relievers. Now, that’s not to say that they don’t need help elsewhere. The bottom of their lineup is thin. They’re probably a starter short of an optimal rotation, particularly given how uncertain Alek Manoah’s future looks. But they’re a playoff hopeful, and they had the worst bullpen in baseball in 2024 – 3.1 wins worse than the White Sox, if you can believe it. So the bullpen had to be priority number one, and voila:

OFFICIAL: We’ve signed All-Star RHP Jeff Hoffman to a 3-year deal ??

Welcome Back, @Hoff_23! pic.twitter.com/A1tN8zOGjV

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) January 11, 2025

Jeff Hoffman might not be a household name, but he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball since joining the Phillies in 2023. He’s racked up 3.6 WAR in that time, but reliever WAR can get weird with the leverage adjustments, so let’s put it this way instead: He’s sixth in ERA and third in FIP over the last two years. His strikeout rate hovers around 33.3%, and he walks a thoroughly normal number of hitters. In other words, this doesn’t look like a fluke, and he’s not getting paid like a fluke, either. His deal is worth $33 million over those three years, with $6 million in available incentives. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Calling Ben Zobrist a utility player — or even a superutility player, given that he could play the outfield as well as the infield — is like calling Citizen Kane a movie about a sled. Unrecruited out of high school, and later unheralded as a prospect due to his age, he seemingly came out of nowhere to emerge as a star for the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, and in doing so removed the stigma of moving between positions on a regular basis. On the offensive side, “Zorilla” was a switch-hitter with elite plate discipline, mid-range power, and a minimal platoon split. As a defender, he provided average-or-better defense at second base and the outfield corners, and could play passably at a few other positions as well. Thanks to that combination, he helped change the way teams thought about roster construction, giving the more creative ones the flexibility to cobble together multiposition platoons.

Zobrist made only three All-Star teams in his 14-year career, but he helped his clubs reach the postseason eight times in an 11-year span (2008–18). From 2009–14, he ranked among the game’s most valuable players by WAR, and in the years adjacent to that stretch, he helped the Rays (2008), Royals (2015), and Cubs (2016) reach the World Series. He was the World Series MVP in the last of those seasons, when the Cubs won their first title in 108 years, and even got a breakfast cereal named after him, Zorilla Crunch! If not for his late start — he didn’t get more than 250 plate appearances in a season until age 28 — he might have had a real shot at making noise on this Hall of Fame ballot instead of going one-and-done. Read the rest of this entry »

Lately, I’ve been very interested in analyzing hitters who make a living off crushing everything in the upper third of the strike zone. As the rise of four-seamers up in the zone has turned that area into a hole for more hitters (especially in terms of whiffs), having someone in the lineup who excels in that area is very valuable. As I perused the leaderboards looking for the best hitters in the upper third, I had an expectation that most, if not all, of them would either have a very flat swing or be on the shorter side with shorter arms. It’s a simple story. If your swing is flat, you’re on plane with the pitch. And if you’re a shorter player or have shorter levers, you should be able to get on plane with pitches in the upper third very quickly.

That story is mostly true, but it wouldn’t be baseball if there weren’t an exception or two. Here is the list of the top 10 hitters against pitches in the upper third by xwOBA in 2024. I used a 15-hit minimum to ensure my focus was on the players who have had success with batted balls in this area:

Read the rest of this entry »

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

What can you say about Chicago’s 2024 season? The White Sox lost 121 games, which is just five fewer games than the Dodgers have lost in the last two years. If there’s good news about 2025, the team is likely to win more games — and probably quite a few more — if merely by happenstance. For a major league team to lose 120-plus games, something magical has to happen, with so much more going very, very wrong than the fates suggested was in order. I’m fairly confident the White Sox will win more games this year than last, and ZiPS projects a 20-win improvement, which would be quite impressive for most teams.

But is that a good thing? Looking at the lineup as it currently stands, I’m not quite so sure. One of the amazing things about the 2024 White Sox is that they didn’t enter the season looking to dramatically rebuild. As far as I can tell, this was a franchise that thought it was a going to be at least mildly competitive in a weak division. But when you look at the current depth chart, it doesn’t really resemble what you’d expect to see from an organization drastically changing directions. The Sox have added some competent role players, but they’re older types who are best cast as capable contributors on a good team, not starters on a team trying to build on ruin. Josh Rojas, Mike Tauchman, and Austin Slater can bolster a contender, but if any of them get the playing time they’re currently allotted on our Depth Charts, it suggests a team without any ideas. A third year of Andrew Benintendi starting doesn’t do much to disspell that impression, and if Andrew Vaughn actually has any upside remaining, it doesn’t like seem the White Sox have any idea of how to find it. Read the rest of this entry »

Charlie Morton met with the Baltimore media over Zoom a few days ago, and as would be expected, the 41-year-old right-hander was equal parts thoughtful and engaging. That’s who Morton is. Much for that reason, I made it a point to join in on the session.

His response to a question from Matt Weyrich was classic Morton. The Baltimore Sun scribe asked the introspective veteran of 14 big-league seasons if he sees himself as a role model and/or mentor for a comparably inexperienced staff.

“I’d love to say that I have the answers,” replied Morton, whom the Orioles inked to a one-year deal worth $15 million. “I don’t. I think that, as an individual, you fit in in different ways with different groups of guys. I’m not going to be the same guy that I was with the Rays, in the clubhouse. I’m not going to be the same guy I was with the Astros or the Braves. Each person in those rooms, they’re just a piece of that larger puzzle. While I am the same person, there are different factors that direct you towards behaving a certain way… the value to a person, in the clubhouse, is the human being that they are.”

As much as baseball is in his blood, Morton is a family man. In August 2023, shortly before his 40th birthday, I asked him how much longer he could continue to defy Father Time and excel against baseball’s best hitters. He told me that he doesn’t think about it that way. Rather, he viewed it as “When am I going to go home?” Blessed with a wife and kids, Morton has pondered walking away from the game he loves for several years running. As the 2024 campaign was winding down, he once again thought there was “a really good chance [this] was going to be my last year.”

That’s he’s continued to perform well enough to not have the decision made for him is a big part of his story. Going from “Ground Chuck” to a pitcher who misses bats helped allow that to happen. Echoing what he told me back in 2017, his first season with the Astros, Morton related to the Baltimore beat writers that his career-altering transformation took place upon his arrival in Houston.

“They had a little board room and a projection screen with charts and graphs, and they were suggesting to me to throw pitches in locations where I would get no swings, or a swing-and-miss,” explained Morton, who has enjoyed markedly more success since revamping his pitching style. “For seven years with Pittsburgh, I was trying to get the ball on the ground with three pitches or less, and now they’re telling me, ‘Don’t let them hit it’… you’re not relying on the fate of where the ball is going, you are relying on your stuff.”

Which brings us back to where he’s going now, which is Baltimore and at least one more season on a big-league mound. Morton admitted to having been on the fence as to whether he even wanted to hear if there were any offers this winter, but when the Orioles called, the situation sounded right. Not only would he be getting a chance to pitch for a legitimate World Series contender, it would “work logistically with myself and my family.”

When Morton does finally decide to “go home,” saying goodbye to the game will come with a heavy heart. Given the way he approaches life, it will also come with a healthy dose of reflection.

“I don’t know about the desire to play baseball going away,” said Morton, who had a 4.19 ERA and a 4.46 FIP over 165-and a -third innings with the Atlanta Braves in 2024. “I don’t think that will ever happen. I think it’s just a recognition that it’s time.”
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Ben Zobrist went 10 for 25 against Andy Pettitte.

Manny Ramirez went 14 for 24 against CC Sabathia.

Adam Jones went 16 for 41 against Mark Buehrle.

Jimmy Rollins went 4 for 11 against Francisco Rodriguez.

Ian Kinsler went 6 for 18 against Fernando Rodney.

———

Several people have asked me why I put a checkmark next to Andy Pettitte’s name, and not next to Mark Buehrle’s, on my Hall of Fame ballot. Here is a brief explanation:

Pettitte had 68.2 fWAR, four seasons with a fWAR of five or higher, a 3.74 FIP, and 256 wins, Buehrle had 52.3 fWAR, one season with a fWAR of five or higher, a 4.11 FIP, and 214 wins. Pettitte also has the more robust postseason resume. (The degree to which postseason should be valued — ditto win totals — is obviously subjective. Nonetheless, each is part of a player’s résumé.) With all due respect to Buehrle — an accomplished pitcher who made five All-Star teams and was awarded four Gold Gloves — I feel that Pettitte is the more deserving of the two, As for whether I should have voted for both, the 10-player limit is an obstacle. My voting for Buehrle in the future remains a possibility.

———

Who was better, Félix Hernández or Jon Lester? The latter becomes Hall-eligible in two years — King Felix debuted this year and got my vote — so I asked that question in a Twitter poll. The results weren’t close. Lester received a paltry 16.7% of the votes cast, while Hernández got a whopping 83.3%. Given their respective numbers — put up in nearly the same number of innings — as well as their awards and honors, I expected a closer race.

Hernández went 169-136 with a 117 ERA+, a 3.52 FIP, and 54.0 fWAR. Lester, who pitched for better teams, went 200-117 with a 117 ERA+, a 3.78 FIP, and 46.2 fWAR.

Hernández was a six-time All-Star, won a Cy Young Award, a pair of ERA titles, and threw a perfect game. Lester was a five-time All-Star who won three World Series rings (two with the Red Sox, one with the Cubs). His Fall Classic résumé includes a 4-1 record and a 1.77 ERA, while his overall postseason ERA was 2.51 over 154 innings. He also has an LCS MVP to his credit.

Will Lester get my vote when he becomes Hall-eligible? That’s yet to be determined. He has a valid argument, regardless of whether his career is deemed as impressive as Félix’s.

———

I also ran a poll asking which of Derek Jeter or Ichiro Suzuki was better. I won’t bother to cite any of their numbers — what the first-ballot Hall of Famers did over of the course of their careers is well known — but I will pass along the results.

Ichiro garnered 79.1% of the votes cast. Jeter received just 20.9%. Make of that what you will.

———

One more on the Hall of Fame:

I’m of the opinion that Firpo Marberry deserves a plaque in Cooperstown. The first MLB pitcher prominently utilized as a “closer,” Marberry led the American League in saves six times, and in appearances another six times. Moreover, he did so while also serving as a starter. Playing primarily for the Washington Senators — the right-hander also took the mound for the Detroit Tigers, and very briefly the New York Giants — Marberry logged a 148-88 won-lost record, 101 saves (B-Ref has him with 99), and a 116 ERA+ across the 1923-1936 seasons . His best year was 1929, when he went 19-12 with 11 saves while starting 23 games and coming out of the bullpen 26 times. His top saves totals were 22, 16, and 15, those in seasons where no other hurler reached double digits.

Given his body of work and pioneer status, Frederick “Firpo” Marberry would be a worthy Hall of Famer.

———

A quiz:

Cal Ripken Jr. drew 1,129 walks, the most in Baltimore Orioles history. Which Oriole has drawn the second most walks? (A hint: He is the franchise’s all-time leader in reaching base via HBP.)

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

Bob Veale, a left-hander who won 120 games while pitching primarily for the Pittsburgh Pirates in a career that spanned the 1962-1974 seasons, died on January 7 at age 89. A flame-throwing Birmingham, Alabama native who made a pair of NL All-Star teams, Veale led the senior circuit with 250 strikeouts in 1964.

Felix Mantilla, a native of Isabela, Puerto Rico who spent the first six of his 11 big-league seasons with the Milwaukee Braves, died on Friday at age 90. An infielder/outfielder, Mantilla had his best year in 1964 when hit 30 home runs with the Boston Red Sox. Two years earlier, he was in the starting lineup when the New York Mets played their first game in franchise history.

Brian Matusz, a left-hander who pitched in 280 games for the Baltimore Orioles, and in one game for Chicago Cubs, from 2009-2016, died earlier this month at age 37. No cause of death has been reported.

———

The answer to the quiz is Brady Anderson, who walked 927 times as an Oriole. His franchise-most HBP total was 148.

———

A random obscure former player snapshot:

Ray Culp was a shrewd trade acquisition for the Red Sox in November 1967. Less than two months after losing the World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston received the 26-year-old right-hander from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Bill Schlesinger and a PTBNL (Al Montreuil), a nondescript duo whose combined careers comprised all of six games and one hit in a dozen at-bats. Culp’s career was far more distinguished. At his best in his first four Boston seasons — this before arm woes entered the equation — the Elgin, Texas native went 64-44 with a 3.34 ERA over 937 innings. All told, Culp won 122 games pitching for the Cubs, Red Sox, and initially the Philadelphia Phillies, from 1963-1973.

———

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

NPB’s Seibu Lions signed a pair of players who saw action in MLB this year. Right-hander Trey Wingenter made a smattering of appearances with the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs, while Tyler Nevin played in 87 games for the Oakland Athletics.

Hiroto Takahashi is working to add a two-seamer to his repertoire (per Yahoo Japan). The Chunichi Dragons right-hander went 12-4 with a 1.38 ERA, and just 107 hits allowed in 143-and-two-thirds innings, this past season. Takahashi turned 22 in August.

Alex Wells is 5-1 with a 1.56 ERA over 52 innings for the Australian Baseball League’s Sydney Blue Sox. The 27-year-old southpaw made 13 appearances with the Baltimore Orioles across the 2021-2022 seasons.

Brennon McNair is slashing .254/.361/.574 with a circuit-best 11 home runs in 145 plate appearances for the ABL’s Brisbane Bandits. The 21-year-old infielder/outfielder in the Kansas City Royals organization had a .660 OPS last year with the High-A Columbia Fireflies.

———

What has been the best game of your life? I asked that question to a number of players this past season, originally for a standalone piece that ran in early June, and subsequently for inclusion in a handful of Sunday Notes columns. Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Colin Holderman was among those to share his memories.

“I was at Heartland Community College, it was one of our first games of the year, and we were playing Walters State,” Holderman told me at PNC Park in late September. “I went eight innings, and I think I struck out 12. I also went 3-for-4 with two homers, one of them a go-ahead homer in the eighth. They were the No. 1 team in the country for junior college, and we were No. 2, so it was a pretty big matchup. That put us on top of the leaderboard. It’s something I think about often, so that would probably have to be my best overall game.”

The right-hander considers an immaculate inning he threw against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 4, 2023 his “biggest big-league moment.” It was his first immaculate inning at any level, and he turned the trick throwing “one sinker, the rest were cutters and sweepers.”

———

LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

At CBS Sports, Mike Snyder addressed a number of false Hall of Fame narratives, including the misguided belief that the Hall is getting watered down.

Baseball America gave us minor league park factors for 2024 (subscription required).

Baseball America surveyed evaluators on the current state of scouting (unlike most BA articles, this is not behind a paywall).

The Kansas City Royals had Brent Rooker on their roster late in the 2022 season, only to lose him to the Oakland Athletics via the waiver wire. Max Rieper wrote about the ill-fated decision to cut Rooker loose, at Royals Review.

———

RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Justin Verlander is 24-24 with a 4.42 ERA in his career against the Cleveland Indians/Guardians. The 24 losses are his most against any team. The most losses Verlander has against any other club is 14, against the Chicago White Sox.

Clayton Kershaw is 11-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 17 career starts against the New York Mets. He is 4-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 17 career starts against the Philadelphia Phillies.

In 1968, Baltimore Orioles left-hander Dave McNally went 22-10 with a 1.95 ERA over 273 innings. He had a 5.3% walk rate and a .202 BABIP-against.

Melvin Mora had a three-year stretch (2003-2005) with the Orioles where his average season included a .312/.391/.513 slash line, 23 home runs, a 142 wRC+, and 5.1 WAR.

Juan Marichal and Brooks Robinson were elected to the Hall of Fame on today’s date in 1983. Robinson was on the ballot for the first time. Marichal was on the ballot for the third time.

On today’s date in 1982, the Minnesota Twins selected Kirby Puckett third overall in the January phase of the MLB draft out of Triton College. The first two picks were Kash Beauchamp, by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Troy Afenir, by the Chicago Cubs.

Players born on today’s date include Nigel Wilson, an outfielder who had three hits in 35 at-bats while playing for the Florida Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, and Cleveland Indians across parts of the 1993-1996 seasons. The Oshawa, Ontario native had far more success in Japan, logging 37, 33, and 37 home runs in his three full seasons with NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.

Also born on today’s date was Togie Pittinger, a right-hander who went 115-113 pitching for the Boston Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies from 1900-1907. The Greencastle, Pennsylvania native won 27 games in 1902, then lost an NL-worst 22 games the following year. His 1903 season also saw him surrender the most earned runs, hits, home runs, and walks. Pittinger did hit his only career home run that year, going yard against left-hander Luther Taylor, who won 116 games after signing with the New York Giants out of the Kansas School for the Deaf.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about salary arbitration, Kyle Tucker, and the unique case of Mike Edwards, then (15:55) kick off a series of interviews about unsung baseball jobs by talking to Rockies bullpen catcher and major league operations assistant (and now, minor league hitting coach) Aaron Muñoz, followed (1:06:09) by former Marlins coordinator of baseball information services (and former FanGraphs writer) Bradley Woodrum, plus (1:59:04) a few follow-ups.

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Happy Friday, everyone! I have good news, mostly for my editor: This will be shorter than the massively long two-week update from last Friday. The bad news, however, is that Justin Verlander makes for a less compelling featured photo than Corbin Burnes, so I appreciate that you clicked on this article anyway. Let’s fill you in on what’s new with the Matrix. Read the rest of this entry »