2025 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

What can you say about Chicago’s 2024 season? The White Sox lost 121 games, which is just five fewer games than the Dodgers have lost in the last two years. If there’s good news about 2025, the team is likely to win more games — and probably quite a few more — if merely by happenstance. For a major league team to lose 120-plus games, something magical has to happen, with so much more going very, very wrong than the fates suggested was in order. I’m fairly confident the White Sox will win more games this year than last, and ZiPS projects a 20-win improvement, which would be quite impressive for most teams.

But is that a good thing? Looking at the lineup as it currently stands, I’m not quite so sure. One of the amazing things about the 2024 White Sox is that they didn’t enter the season looking to dramatically rebuild. As far as I can tell, this was a franchise that thought it was a going to be at least mildly competitive in a weak division. But when you look at the current depth chart, it doesn’t really resemble what you’d expect to see from an organization drastically changing directions. The Sox have added some competent role players, but they’re older types who are best cast as capable contributors on a good team, not starters on a team trying to build on ruin. Josh Rojas, Mike Tauchman, and Austin Slater can bolster a contender, but if any of them get the playing time they’re currently allotted on our Depth Charts, it suggests a team without any ideas. A third year of Andrew Benintendi starting doesn’t do much to disspell that impression, and if Andrew Vaughn actually has any upside remaining, it doesn’t like seem the White Sox have any idea of how to find it. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Ever Introspective, Charlie Morton Isn’t Quite Ready To Go Home

Charlie Morton met with the Baltimore media over Zoom a few days ago, and as would be expected, the 41-year-old right-hander was equal parts thoughtful and engaging. That’s who Morton is. Much for that reason, I made it a point to join in on the session.

His response to a question from Matt Weyrich was classic Morton. The Baltimore Sun scribe asked the introspective veteran of 14 big-league seasons if he sees himself as a role model and/or mentor for a comparably inexperienced staff.

“I’d love to say that I have the answers,” replied Morton, whom the Orioles inked to a one-year deal worth $15 million. “I don’t. I think that, as an individual, you fit in in different ways with different groups of guys. I’m not going to be the same guy that I was with the Rays, in the clubhouse. I’m not going to be the same guy I was with the Astros or the Braves. Each person in those rooms, they’re just a piece of that larger puzzle. While I am the same person, there are different factors that direct you towards behaving a certain way… the value to a person, in the clubhouse, is the human being that they are.”

As much as baseball is in his blood, Morton is a family man. In August 2023, shortly before his 40th birthday, I asked him how much longer he could continue to defy Father Time and excel against baseball’s best hitters. He told me that he doesn’t think about it that way. Rather, he viewed it as “When am I going to go home?” Blessed with a wife and kids, Morton has pondered walking away from the game he loves for several years running. As the 2024 campaign was winding down, he once again thought there was “a really good chance [this] was going to be my last year.”

That’s he’s continued to perform well enough to not have the decision made for him is a big part of his story. Going from “Ground Chuck” to a pitcher who misses bats helped allow that to happen. Echoing what he told me back in 2017, his first season with the Astros, Morton related to the Baltimore beat writers that his career-altering transformation took place upon his arrival in Houston.

“They had a little board room and a projection screen with charts and graphs, and they were suggesting to me to throw pitches in locations where I would get no swings, or a swing-and-miss,” explained Morton, who has enjoyed markedly more success since revamping his pitching style. “For seven years with Pittsburgh, I was trying to get the ball on the ground with three pitches or less, and now they’re telling me, ‘Don’t let them hit it’… you’re not relying on the fate of where the ball is going, you are relying on your stuff.”

Which brings us back to where he’s going now, which is Baltimore and at least one more season on a big-league mound. Morton admitted to having been on the fence as to whether he even wanted to hear if there were any offers this winter, but when the Orioles called, the situation sounded right. Not only would he be getting a chance to pitch for a legitimate World Series contender, it would “work logistically with myself and my family.”

When Morton does finally decide to “go home,” saying goodbye to the game will come with a heavy heart. Given the way he approaches life, it will also come with a healthy dose of reflection.

“I don’t know about the desire to play baseball going away,” said Morton, who had a 4.19 ERA and a 4.46 FIP over 165-and a -third innings with the Atlanta Braves in 2024. “I don’t think that will ever happen. I think it’s just a recognition that it’s time.”
———

RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Ben Zobrist went 10 for 25 against Andy Pettitte.

Manny Ramirez went 14 for 24 against CC Sabathia.

Adam Jones went 16 for 41 against Mark Buehrle.

Jimmy Rollins went 4 for 11 against Francisco Rodriguez.

Ian Kinsler went 6 for 18 against Fernando Rodney.

———

Several people have asked me why I put a checkmark next to Andy Pettitte’s name, and not next to Mark Buehrle’s, on my Hall of Fame ballot. Here is a brief explanation:

Pettitte had 68.2 fWAR, four seasons with a fWAR of five or higher, a 3.74 FIP, and 256 wins, Buehrle had 52.3 fWAR, one season with a fWAR of five or higher, a 4.11 FIP, and 214 wins. Pettitte also has the more robust postseason resume. (The degree to which postseason should be valued — ditto win totals — is obviously subjective. Nonetheless, each is part of a player’s résumé.) With all due respect to Buehrle — an accomplished pitcher who made five All-Star teams and was awarded four Gold Gloves — I feel that Pettitte is the more deserving of the two, As for whether I should have voted for both, the 10-player limit is an obstacle. My voting for Buehrle in the future remains a possibility.

———

Who was better, Félix Hernández or Jon Lester? The latter becomes Hall-eligible in two years — King Felix debuted this year and got my vote — so I asked that question in a Twitter poll. The results weren’t close. Lester received a paltry 16.7% of the votes cast, while Hernández got a whopping 83.3%. Given their respective numbers — put up in nearly the same number of innings — as well as their awards and honors, I expected a closer race.

Hernández went 169-136 with a 117 ERA+, a 3.52 FIP, and 54.0 fWAR. Lester, who pitched for better teams, went 200-117 with a 117 ERA+, a 3.78 FIP, and 46.2 fWAR.

Hernández was a six-time All-Star, won a Cy Young Award, a pair of ERA titles, and threw a perfect game. Lester was a five-time All-Star who won three World Series rings (two with the Red Sox, one with the Cubs). His Fall Classic résumé includes a 4-1 record and a 1.77 ERA, while his overall postseason ERA was 2.51 over 154 innings. He also has an LCS MVP to his credit.

Will Lester get my vote when he becomes Hall-eligible? That’s yet to be determined. He has a valid argument, regardless of whether his career is deemed as impressive as Félix’s.

———

I also ran a poll asking which of Derek Jeter or Ichiro Suzuki was better. I won’t bother to cite any of their numbers — what the first-ballot Hall of Famers did over of the course of their careers is well known — but I will pass along the results.

Ichiro garnered 79.1% of the votes cast. Jeter received just 20.9%. Make of that what you will.

———

One more on the Hall of Fame:

I’m of the opinion that Firpo Marberry deserves a plaque in Cooperstown. The first MLB pitcher prominently utilized as a “closer,” Marberry led the American League in saves six times, and in appearances another six times. Moreover, he did so while also serving as a starter. Playing primarily for the Washington Senators — the right-hander also took the mound for the Detroit Tigers, and very briefly the New York Giants — Marberry logged a 148-88 won-lost record, 101 saves (B-Ref has him with 99), and a 116 ERA+ across the 1923-1936 seasons . His best year was 1929, when he went 19-12 with 11 saves while starting 23 games and coming out of the bullpen 26 times. His top saves totals were 22, 16, and 15, those in seasons where no other hurler reached double digits.

Given his body of work and pioneer status, Frederick “Firpo” Marberry would be a worthy Hall of Famer.

———

A quiz:

Cal Ripken Jr. drew 1,129 walks, the most in Baltimore Orioles history. Which Oriole has drawn the second most walks? (A hint: He is the franchise’s all-time leader in reaching base via HBP.)

The answer can be found below.

———

NEWS NOTES

Bob Veale, a left-hander who won 120 games while pitching primarily for the Pittsburgh Pirates in a career that spanned the 1962-1974 seasons, died on January 7 at age 89. A flame-throwing Birmingham, Alabama native who made a pair of NL All-Star teams, Veale led the senior circuit with 250 strikeouts in 1964.

Felix Mantilla, a native of Isabela, Puerto Rico who spent the first six of his 11 big-league seasons with the Milwaukee Braves, died on Friday at age 90. An infielder/outfielder, Mantilla had his best year in 1964 when hit 30 home runs with the Boston Red Sox. Two years earlier, he was in the starting lineup when the New York Mets played their first game in franchise history.

Brian Matusz, a left-hander who pitched in 280 games for the Baltimore Orioles, and in one game for Chicago Cubs, from 2009-2016, died earlier this month at age 37. No cause of death has been reported.

———

The answer to the quiz is Brady Anderson, who walked 927 times as an Oriole. His franchise-most HBP total was 148.

———

A random obscure former player snapshot:

Ray Culp was a shrewd trade acquisition for the Red Sox in November 1967. Less than two months after losing the World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston received the 26-year-old right-hander from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Bill Schlesinger and a PTBNL (Al Montreuil), a nondescript duo whose combined careers comprised all of six games and one hit in a dozen at-bats. Culp’s career was far more distinguished. At his best in his first four Boston seasons — this before arm woes entered the equation — the Elgin, Texas native went 64-44 with a 3.34 ERA over 937 innings. All told, Culp won 122 games pitching for the Cubs, Red Sox, and initially the Philadelphia Phillies, from 1963-1973.

———

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

NPB’s Seibu Lions signed a pair of players who saw action in MLB this year. Right-hander Trey Wingenter made a smattering of appearances with the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs, while Tyler Nevin played in 87 games for the Oakland Athletics.

Hiroto Takahashi is working to add a two-seamer to his repertoire (per Yahoo Japan). The Chunichi Dragons right-hander went 12-4 with a 1.38 ERA, and just 107 hits allowed in 143-and-two-thirds innings, this past season. Takahashi turned 22 in August.

Alex Wells is 5-1 with a 1.56 ERA over 52 innings for the Australian Baseball League’s Sydney Blue Sox. The 27-year-old southpaw made 13 appearances with the Baltimore Orioles across the 2021-2022 seasons.

Brennon McNair is slashing .254/.361/.574 with a circuit-best 11 home runs in 145 plate appearances for the ABL’s Brisbane Bandits. The 21-year-old infielder/outfielder in the Kansas City Royals organization had a .660 OPS last year with the High-A Columbia Fireflies.

———

What has been the best game of your life? I asked that question to a number of players this past season, originally for a standalone piece that ran in early June, and subsequently for inclusion in a handful of Sunday Notes columns. Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Colin Holderman was among those to share his memories.

“I was at Heartland Community College, it was one of our first games of the year, and we were playing Walters State,” Holderman told me at PNC Park in late September. “I went eight innings, and I think I struck out 12. I also went 3-for-4 with two homers, one of them a go-ahead homer in the eighth. They were the No. 1 team in the country for junior college, and we were No. 2, so it was a pretty big matchup. That put us on top of the leaderboard. It’s something I think about often, so that would probably have to be my best overall game.”

The right-hander considers an immaculate inning he threw against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 4, 2023 his “biggest big-league moment.” It was his first immaculate inning at any level, and he turned the trick throwing “one sinker, the rest were cutters and sweepers.”

———

LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

At CBS Sports, Mike Snyder addressed a number of false Hall of Fame narratives, including the misguided belief that the Hall is getting watered down.

Baseball America gave us minor league park factors for 2024 (subscription required).

Baseball America surveyed evaluators on the current state of scouting (unlike most BA articles, this is not behind a paywall).

The Kansas City Royals had Brent Rooker on their roster late in the 2022 season, only to lose him to the Oakland Athletics via the waiver wire. Max Rieper wrote about the ill-fated decision to cut Rooker loose, at Royals Review.

———

RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Justin Verlander is 24-24 with a 4.42 ERA in his career against the Cleveland Indians/Guardians. The 24 losses are his most against any team. The most losses Verlander has against any other club is 14, against the Chicago White Sox.

Clayton Kershaw is 11-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 17 career starts against the New York Mets. He is 4-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 17 career starts against the Philadelphia Phillies.

In 1968, Baltimore Orioles left-hander Dave McNally went 22-10 with a 1.95 ERA over 273 innings. He had a 5.3% walk rate and a .202 BABIP-against.

Melvin Mora had a three-year stretch (2003-2005) with the Orioles where his average season included a .312/.391/.513 slash line, 23 home runs, a 142 wRC+, and 5.1 WAR.

Juan Marichal and Brooks Robinson were elected to the Hall of Fame on today’s date in 1983. Robinson was on the ballot for the first time. Marichal was on the ballot for the third time.

On today’s date in 1982, the Minnesota Twins selected Kirby Puckett third overall in the January phase of the MLB draft out of Triton College. The first two picks were Kash Beauchamp, by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Troy Afenir, by the Chicago Cubs.

Players born on today’s date include Nigel Wilson, an outfielder who had three hits in 35 at-bats while playing for the Florida Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, and Cleveland Indians across parts of the 1993-1996 seasons. The Oshawa, Ontario native had far more success in Japan, logging 37, 33, and 37 home runs in his three full seasons with NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.

Also born on today’s date was Togie Pittinger, a right-hander who went 115-113 pitching for the Boston Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies from 1900-1907. The Greencastle, Pennsylvania native won 27 games in 1902, then lost an NL-worst 22 games the following year. His 1903 season also saw him surrender the most earned runs, hits, home runs, and walks. Pittinger did hit his only career home run that year, going yard against left-hander Luther Taylor, who won 116 games after signing with the New York Giants out of the Kansas School for the Deaf.


Effectively Wild Episode 2269: Baseball Jobs (Bullpen Catcher and Baseball Ops Analyst)

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about salary arbitration, Kyle Tucker, and the unique case of Mike Edwards, then (15:55) kick off a series of interviews about unsung baseball jobs by talking to Rockies bullpen catcher and major league operations assistant (and now, minor league hitting coach) Aaron Muñoz, followed (1:06:09) by former Marlins coordinator of baseball information services (and former FanGraphs writer) Bradley Woodrum, plus (1:59:04) a few follow-ups.

Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)
Audio interstitial: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Speier post
Link to original Speier post
Link to Edwards article 1
Link to Edwards article 2
Link to Edwards article 3
Link to Edwards article 4
Link to Mike Edwards wiki
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Link to Tucker arb article
Link to Sheehan on Tucker
Link to fan ban article
Link to bullpen catchers article
Link to Aaron’s LinkedIn
Link to Denver Post article
Link to Emma on bullpen brawls
Link to brawl video
Link to brawl article
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RosterResource Chat – 1/10/25

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Matrix Reloaded: January 10, 2024

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Happy Friday, everyone! I have good news, mostly for my editor: This will be shorter than the massively long two-week update from last Friday. The bad news, however, is that Justin Verlander makes for a less compelling featured photo than Corbin Burnes, so I appreciate that you clicked on this article anyway. Let’s fill you in on what’s new with the Matrix. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/10/25

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from windy Tempe where I’m working on the Giants prospect list and doubling back on my international bonus info to have as accurate a picture as I can for next week’s signing period kickoff…

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: ICYMI in the last week or so, I wrote about the Luzardo trade Jesús (Luzardo) Is a Phillie | FanGraphs Baseball

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: and the Rockies system: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/colorado-rockies-top-42-prospects

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: How the Giants list and the Int’l list sequence early next week might depend on whether we learn of Sasaki’s destination over the weekend, and how much chaos that creates.

Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Carlos González

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2025 BBWAA Candidate: Carlos González
Player Pos Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS H HR SB AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
Carlos González LF 24.4 23.7 24.1 1,432 234 122 .285/.343/.500 112
SOURCE: Baseball Reference

He won’t end up in Cooperstown like Larry Walker and Todd Helton, and he was never the face of the franchise the way Troy Tulowitzki was, but Carlos González is the only player to appear in three separate postseasons for the Rockies, a bridge between high points of the Helton/Tulowitzki era to those of the Nolan Arenado one. González solidified his spot in the majors with the 2009 Rockies, who overcame a slow start to claim a Wild Card berth, and was still playing regularly (albeit much less effectively) on their ’17 and ’18 Wild Card qualifiers. In between those October appearances, the sweet-swinging CarGo made three All-Star teams, took home three Gold Gloves, and won a very Coors Field-flavored batting title that propelled him to third place in the 2010 NL MVP race. Alas, as with so many other Rockies stars, he also battled numerous injuries, topping 140 games just three times in his 12 seasons.

Carlos Eduardo González was born on October 17, 1985 in Maracaibo, Venezuela, to parents Euro (an auto mechanic), and Lucila (an employee in the insurance industry). Euro had only a passing interest in baseball, but his oldest son, Euro Jr., dominated street games in their Maracaibo neighborhood. Euro Jr. didn’t start playing organized baseball until he was 12, so he never had the opportunity to capitalize on his raw talent, but he took great interest in the affinity that Carlos, his younger brother by seven years, had for the game. When Carlos was five, Euro Jr. helped find him a Little League team, his entry into Venezuela’s vast state-run youth baseball structure. Euro Jr. worked to help his younger brother buy a glove and baseball shoes.

As a child, Carlos often snuck into the kitchens and closets of relatives and hijacked their broom handles. “I would find the broom and unscrew it so I had a bat to hit stuff with,” he told the Denver Post’s Troy Renck in 2013. His toys became projectiles. “I never liked playing with them. I would toss them up in the air and hit them all the time,” as he told Renck. Read the rest of this entry »


2025 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

The AL East team that entered 2024 with the highest projected floor turned out to have… the lowest actual floor in 2024. Curse you, probability! The rotation disappointed last year, and a wide swathe of the starting lineup either underperformed or got injured, and in some cases, both. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2268: The 2025 Minor League Free Agent Draft

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Ben Clemens banter about the Giants signing Justin Verlander, a plateau in leaguewide slider usage, and why spending on free agents has exceeded expectations so far. Then (20:55) they continue a cherished podcast tradition by conducting the 12th annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft, in which they select 10 minor league free agents each and compete to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2025.

Audio intro: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Baumann on Verlander
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Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians – 2025 Analyst, Baseball Operations

2025 Analyst, Baseball Operations

Location: Cleveland, Ohio, United States

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians Baseball Operations department is seeking analysts who are creative, curious, and collaborative teammates who enjoy tackling unique and challenging problems. The analyst role supports multiple departments (Player Development, Pro/Amateur/International Acquisitions, and the Major League team) with analysis and the practical application of evidence and research-based tools, resources, and processes to help facilitate their work.

Core Job Functions
Analysts are expected to work in a fast-paced team environment and communicate effectively with various organizational stakeholders. The bullets below are intended to capture major realms in which work might be focused, although the Analyst’s time spent across each area may differ based on their skillset, interests, and the team’s needs.

  • Analysis:
    • Facilitate and conduct evidence-based analysis in support of each department.
    • Communicate findings to key stakeholders across the organization.
  • Development:
    • Work collaboratively with Baseball Research and Development to uncover actionable insights across Hitting, Pitching, and Defense/Base-Running.
    • Work collaboratively with Baseball Systems to build and manage software products that directly drive our internal processes.
    • Support the application and education across departments of evidence-based practices & organizational philosophies.
  • Baseball Operations:
    • Facilitate and conduct analysis to support strategic planning.
    • Provide general ad-hoc support across baseball operations.

We know that historically marginalized groups – including people of color, women, people from working class backgrounds, and people who identify as LGBTQ – are less likely to apply unless and until they meet every requirement for a job. We encourage you to reach out if you have questions about the role or your qualifications. We are happy to help you feel ready to apply!

Basic Requirements

  • Ability to craft and articulate a compelling message to others in both written and verbal form.
  • Collaborative and able to succeed in a team-oriented environment.
  • An ability to build and maintain relationships with a broad range of baseball operations employees, including but not limited to scouts, coaches, and front office members.
  • Relentlessly curious and open-minded with a track record of evidence-based and divergent thinking.
  • Working knowledge of cutting-edge, publicly available baseball research.
  • Willing to frequently work nights, weekends, and holidays—particularly during the season.
  • Expected relocation to Cleveland and travel to Arizona for Spring Training.
  • Potential travel to Minor League affiliate teams.

Preferred Experience
While we don’t expect any candidate to meet every requirement, we’re looking for either a breadth of experience or deep expertise in a particular area. We’re considering applicants with a wide variety of past experiences.

  • Demonstrated expertise in biomechanics, hitting analysis, pitching analysis, or sport science.
  • Demonstrated understanding of statistics and experience carrying out quantitative analysis.
  • Demonstrated experience with a database language such as SQL and a programming language such as R or Python.
  • Ability to communicate in Spanish is a plus but not necessary.
  • Bachelor’s degree or prior professional experience.

Organizational Requirements

  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Demonstrated commitment to working with diverse populations and contributing to an inclusive working environment.
  • Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25 lbs.

At the Cleveland Guardians, we are all about creating an inclusive environment that brings out the best in everyone. It is a big part of who we are, how we compete, and how we make an impact in our community. We want every employee to feel like they truly belong here.

We also know that people from historically underserved groups—like women and people of color—sometimes hesitate to apply for jobs unless they check every single box on the qualifications list. We’re looking for the best person for the job, and we know that you might bring skills and experiences that aren’t exactly listed but could be a huge asset to our team. So, if this role excites you, we encourage you to apply, even if you don’t meet every single qualification.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.