Rob Refsnyder is having a career-best season with the Boston Red Sox. Playing in a reserve role, the 31-year-old journeyman outfielder is slashing .304/.380/.462 with four home runs and a 143 wRC+ in 129 plate appearances. He’s done most of his damage against lefties, boasting a robust 1.056 OPS versus opposite-handed hurlers.

He’s followed a meandering path to success. Since debuting with the New York Yankees in 2015, the University of Arizona product has played for eight different organizations, seeing big-league time with five of them. Along the way, he’s worked with numerous hitting coaches in an attempt to turn the proverbial corner as a hitter. Refsnyder entered this season with a .224/.310/.308 slash line, and six of his 10 career home runs, in 614 MLB plate appearances.

A failed quest to produce more power is part of his story. Six years ago this month, Refsnyder was quoted in a Sunday Notes column saying that he was “going to try to hit home runs… I’m going to try to completely change my game.”

Earlier this summer, I reminded Refsnyder about that conversation, then asked if he could take me through his subsequent evolution as a hitter. Here is what he had to say. Read the rest of this entry »

At this point, it’s becoming a meme. The Orioles chug along, at or around .500, and our playoff odds continue to say that they’ll almost certainly miss postseason play. Across the internet, sites like Baseball Reference and FiveThirtyEight give them a higher chance. The headlines write themselves: “Why doesn’t FanGraphs believe in the Orioles?”

Just to give you an example, after the games of July 29, the Orioles were 51–49. Baseball Reference gave them a 34% chance of reaching the playoffs; we gave them a 4.6% chance. Ten days later, on August 8, Baseball Prospectus pegged them at 22.2% while we had them at 5.4%. On August 11, FiveThirtyEight estimated their playoff odds at 16%; we had those odds at 5.7%. Another week later, on August 19, Baseball Reference pegged them at 35.5% to reach the playoffs; we gave them a 4% chance. You can snapshot whatever day you’d like and you’d reach the same conclusion: we don’t think the Orioles are very likely to make the playoffs, while other outlets do.

Now, we’re getting down to brass tacks. The Orioles are 68–61 after Wednesday’s games. Baseball Reference thinks they are 43.6% to reach the postseason. FiveThirtyEight isn’t quite so optimistic, but still gives them 23% odds, while Baseball Prospectus has them at 29.9%. Here at FanGraphs, we’re down at 6.6%, even after they called up top prospect Gunnar Henderson. Why don’t we believe? Read the rest of this entry »

While Josh Hader’s post-trade meltdowns have gotten more attention, the rest of the Padres’ bullpen has generally pitched well in August, and despite a modest 15-13 record this month, the team is still holding onto a Wild Card position. Meanwhile, the Brewers, who received 2021 All-Star Taylor Rogers and three other players in the deal, have fared worse since the swap, not only with regards to their remade bullpen but also in other areas, and right now, they’re the ones outside the playoff picture.

I dug into Hader’s ongoing woes and the Padres’ side of things on Tuesday while doing a fly-by on the Brewers. To recap, in exchange for the 28-year-old Hader — who has a year of arbitration eligibility remaining and figured to get a raise to something in the neighborhood of $15 million — they received the 31-year-old Rogers (a pending free agent), 30-year-old righty Dinelson Lamet (designated for assignment before even throwing a pitch), 23-year-old lefty prospect Robert Gasser (then at High-A, and promoted from Double-A to Triple-A this week), and 23-year-old outfielder Esteury Ruiz (then on the Padres’ roster, now back in Triple-A).

At the time of the trade, the Brewers were 57-45, three games ahead of the Cardinals (54-48) in the NL Central race, and with the league’s fourth-best record behind the Dodgers (68-33), Mets (64-37) and Braves (62-41). Since then, they’ve gone just 11-15, which might not be such a big deal if the Cardinals hadn’t gone 21-7 over the same stretch, producing a nine-game swing in the division standings. Meanwhile, the Braves (17-10), Phillies (17-11) and Padres have all outdone the Brewers, leaving Milwaukee 2.5 games out of the third NL Wild Card spot. Here’s an updated look at the impact on their Playoff Odds:

Read the rest of this entry »

Mike McCarthy has followed a well-educated path in his pursuit of a big-league position. Currently the pitching coach for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas, the 34-year-old Walnut Creek, California native earned a Bachelor of Science degree from Cal State Bakersfield while playing in the Boston Red Sox system, and he followed that up by earning an MBA, with an emphasis in global management, from the University of Phoenix. And he’s not done learning. Along with instructing pitchers in the San Diego Padres’ system, McCarthy is working toward a Master’s Degree in Sports and Health Science.

His educational pursuits have every bit as robust in the pitching realm. Ever since being introduced to analytical concepts as a Double-A hurler, McCarthy has strove to learn as much as he can. To say he’s made great strides in that area would be an understatement; McCarthy is one of the most forward-thinking pitching coaches in professional baseball.

———

David Laurila: You’re big into pitching analytics. When did that start?

Mike McCarthy: “One of the moments I remember, one of the most distinct, is Brian Bannister coming to Portland. I believe that was in 2015. I was throwing a bullpen, and I asked Brian, ‘Why does Justin Haley get so many swings-and-misses on his fastball?’ I told him it seemed like an invisi-ball, and none of us could figure it out. He said, ‘We’re learning about this thing called spin rate, and his is really high. ‘I was like, ‘What the heck is that?’

“There was a saying that Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman and Drake Britton were all using. They called it ‘elevate and celebrate.’ While I was throwing fastballs down and away, those guys were throwing fastballs up and getting swings-and-misses. That was kind of going against the grain at the time, and it turns out they all had high-carry fastballs. We just didn’t know what it meant.

“That was the first time I really started to ponder the idea, ‘What are we missing? What don’t we know yet?’ Since that time, baseball has obviously delved into the technology and analytics, and that’s something I’ve enjoyed using as a part of the way I approach coaching.”

Laurila: When did really start to dive in to analytics? Read the rest of this entry »

You know the basics of Lars Nootbaar’s story, because you know how the Cardinals seem to work. An eighth-round draft pick in 2018, he held his own in an increasingly tough set of minor league assignments, made the show in ’21, and is now leading off for one of the best offensive teams in baseball. He’s putting up more or less the best offensive performance of his career, and doing it in the major leagues after less than 1,000 minor league plate appearances. Nothing to it! Just a little devil magic, move on with your lives.

If you look a bit deeper than the basics, though, Nootbaar gets far more interesting. That same old story? It’s not really right. Nootbaar isn’t the same player he was when he was drafted. He’s a slugging corner outfielder who probably had a lot to do with the Cardinals’ willingness to trade Harrison Bader at the deadline. Let’s take a journey through his pro career and see if we can predict his future at the end of it.

When he was drafted, Nootbaar was an approach-over-tools prospect. He’s always had a good sense of the strike zone; the question was whether he’d be able to muster enough power on contact to keep high-level pitchers from knocking the bat out of his hands. In 2018 and ’19, that concern seemed pressing: in 265 plate appearances between Hi-A and Double-A, he hit only two homers and posted a .055 ISO. In other words, pitchers were knocking the bat out of his hands. He posted an average batting line anyway, but let’s face it: that’s an uninspiring start to a career.
Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Ben’s habitual misappraisal of checked swings and the potential for automated checked-swing calls, then discuss the potential unionization of the minor leagues via minor league players joining the MLBPA, Nationals rookie replacement Joey Meneses outplaying Juan Soto and Josh Bell since the trade deadline, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and the AL Cy Young and MVP races, the Brewers’ and Padres’ results since the Josh Hader–Taylor Rogers trade, the potential postseason teams with the most sympathetic narratives for neutral rooters, Dallas Keuchel and the long tail of a former Cy Young winner’s career, the Angels’ surprisingly high shutout total, an Albert Pujols fun fact, John Smoltz’s communication breakdown, the return of soaring spin rates, a record-setting Mickey Mantle card, New York number retirements for Paul O’Neill and Willie Mays, and the reinvented stance of the late John Wockenfuss, plus two Past Blasts (1:36:32) from 1896 and a few followups.

Audio intro: Kurt Vile, “Check Baby”
Audio outro: Nick Drake, “Joey”

Link to checked-swing rule explainer
Link to SIS study on checked swings
Link to Ben on checked swings
Link to Tipping Pitches T-shirt
Link to MLBTR on unionization efforts
Link to Ohtani’s postgame comment
Link to team RP WAR since 8/2
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Hader trade
Link to SIS on Hader
Link to Michael Ajeto on Hader
Link to Robert Orr on Hader
Link to highest ERAs w/29+ saves
Link to team shutout leaders
Link to Pujols record article
Link to Ben Clemens on Smoltz
Link to Rob Arthur on spin rates
Link to 2022 offense by month
Link to story on the Mantle card
Link to EW episode on memorabilia
Link to Yankees WAR leaderboard
Link to story on the Mets and Mays
Link to Craig Wright’s story series
Link to Wright on Wockenfuss
Link to video of Wockenfuss
Link to BSG imitation of Wockenfuss
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1896 story source
Link to first source on Pond
Link to second source on Pond
Link to third source on Pond
Link to Pond/sweater story
Link to Pond’s SABR bio
Link to Fox 96 mph screenshot
Link to Fox 97 mph screenshot
Link to Dan S. on head-to-head records

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In what may have been the most surprising trade ahead of the August 2 deadline, the Brewers and Padres swapped closers on August 1 as part of a five-player deal, with four-time All-Star Josh Hader heading to San Diego and 2021 All-Star Taylor Rogers and three other players going to Milwaukee. But a trade that was supposed to improve both contenders while making some additional sense in terms of rosters and payrolls has thus far failed to pan out for either team, and at this point both clubs find themselves scrambling for the National League’s last playoff spot.

The full deal sent the 28-year-old Hader to the Padres in exchange for the 31-year-old Rogers as well as 30-year-old righty Dinelson Lamet and a pair of 23-year-old prospects, lefty Robert Gasser and outfielder Esteury Ruiz. Lamet didn’t even suit up for the Brewers, who designated him for assignment on August 5; he was claimed by the Rockies and at this writing has made eight appearances for them. Meanwhile, the Brewers sent Ruiz, who had been on the Padres’ major league roster, back to Triple-A and promoted Gasser from High-A to Double-A.

While the trade appeared puzzling on the surface, the Brewers seemed motivated to make the move because they perceived that they had a deep enough bullpen to withstand the loss of the increasingly expensive Hader, who’s making $11 million this year and could make around $15 million in his final year of arbitration. Even if Rogers didn’t wind up working the ninth inning, they believed that the extra goodies they were receiving from the Padres would help them in the long run. The Padres made the trade because they felt they needed an elite closer for a playoff push that they hoped would include a revamped roster, not only with Fernando Tatis Jr. after he rehabbed from a wrist injury but also other significant fortifications that were in the works; they landed Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Nationals but might have turned to Willson Contreras had that massive blockbuster not materialized. Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a thing that you could say about José Berríos: he’s been a lousy pitcher this year. I don’t even think he would argue with you on that one; after signing a seven-year, $131 million deal with the Blue Jays, he’s having comfortably his worst season in the majors. His 5.28 ERA is more than a run higher than his career mark coming into the year despite the declining offensive environment. He’s striking fewer batters out and giving up home runs at an alarming rate. Whether you’re talking about advanced or standard metrics, new school or old school, it’s been a disaster of a year.

Here’s another thing you could say about Berríos: he’s a solid pitcher who’s sticking with the approach that got him here in the first place. If you thought he was good last year — and you probably did, given that he put up a mid-3s ERA in both Minnesota and Toronto with the peripherals to match — you’d expect him to be good again this year. He’s not losing velocity. He didn’t change his pitch mix. He didn’t suddenly lose command of the zone. What the heck is happening here?

Before we go any further in this investigation, I’m going to spoil the conclusion a little bit: I don’t know the answer. I don’t think there’s an obvious answer at all, in fact. If there were, I’m fairly certain the Jays would have figured it out by now. Whatever’s ailing Berríos, it’s somewhere on the margins. Read the rest of this entry »

Mitch White brought a new-ish slider to Toronto when the Blue Jays acquired him at this year’s trade deadline. He also brought a nerdy approach to pitching. That should come as no surprise. The 27-year-old right-hander had pitched in the Los Angeles Dodgers system since being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Santa Clara University.

White also had a big-league resume when he changed organizations. Having debuted with the Dodgers in August of 2020’s COVID-truncated campaign, he had 105-and-two-thirds innings under his belt when the four-player swap occurred. Since coming to Toronto, White has a 5.89 ERA over four starts.

White discussed his new and old sliders, and the blister issues that have dogged his career, when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park last week.

———

On his path to the big leagues and dealing with blisters:
“A lot of it was staying healthy. I’ve had a few things go on every year, whether it was blisters or some back stuff. I had a broken toe at one point. Right now, I have this little guy [blister]. The slider really puts a lot of pressure there because I’m trying to get to the side of the ball and spin it, and for whatever reason, I guess my skin is soft. I’ve had to learn how to manage that stuff in between outings. Read the rest of this entry »

Since I’m an obnoxiously determined Devil’s advocate, one of my favorite uses of data is tackling conventional wisdom. For example, one such bit of wisdom that always bugs me is when pundits insist that the best teams are the ones that win close games. In fact, the opposite is true. The most predictive run differential comes in blowouts — the good teams are the ones that are more likely to humiliate their opponents, not squeeze out a close one. This time of year, you start to see a lot of analysis asserting that X team is definitely blessed or doomed come playoff time because of some randomly chosen factor Y. We could do a column a day on these and still have dozens of unwritten pieces by the time the actual playoffs roll around, but let’s focus on a few specific ones, concentrating on who good teams beat rather than how many games they win.

First off, do regular season head-to-head records matter in the playoffs? Since the start of divisional play in 1969, teams that face each other in the playoffs have frequently met in the regular season. Interleague play added eventual World Series matchups to the regular season, and starting in 2023, every playoff matchup will have already occurred during the regular season. Given the sample size of playoff series, if we construct a simple model of series winning percentage that only consists of a team’s regular season winning percentage and its winning percentage in head-to-head matchups, the model horribly inaccurate, with an r-squared of 0.0886 and a mean absolute error of 275 points of winning percentage.

But including head-to-head winning percentage doesn’t really even have a marginal influence on the coin flip; without the head-to-head matchups, the model’s MAE increases to 276 points of winning percentage. Now, a head-to-head record may imply something about a team’s overall strength that isn’t captured in its overall record, but rather than pick up a small sample implication, we can use strength of schedule directly, which does help the model a tiny bit (playoff series are always going to be very uncertain unless we move to best-of-75 series or something wacky). Read the rest of this entry »