A month ago, things were fine. After the games of July 17, the Padres were 55-40, hanging on to the periphery of the NL West chase. Five games back of the Giants, they didn’t have a ton of hope — our odds gave them a 10.4% chance of winning the division — but they were close enough to dream, and a 5.5-game edge in the Wild Card race meant they had a 92.3% overall chance of reaching the playoffs. Today, that number is down to 46.3%. Yikes!

It didn’t happen overnight. By looking at the slow decline of their chances, I think we might learn a thing or two about what went wrong, and maybe get a sense of what they’ll need to do the rest of the year to avoid plummeting all the way out of the postseason, an outcome that felt downright inconceivable before their recent swoon.

July 24
Record since July 17: 3-3
FG Playoff Odds: 92.3%
Wild Card Lead: 5.5 games

Things were looking up! A huge group of reinforcements had just come off the injured list, as Drew Pomeranz, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Ryan Weathers, and Austin Nola all returned to action. On the field, the team fended off some NL East opposition — Nationals, Braves, and Marlins — and kept pace in the standings. Even better news: the trade deadline was approaching fast, and there’s no one better to add to a team than AJ Preller. The Padres were linked to everyone, and after their offseason frenzy, every rumor seemed credible. The playoffs seemed all but a certainty; the real question was whether they could catch the teams ahead of them in the West. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from Brendan Gawlowski. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Luis Frías, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Reno Age: 23 Org Rank: 12 FV: 45
Recent News: Promoted to Triple-A Reno

Tall, thick around the middle, and with a few elements in his delivery that bear a passing resemblance to Jose Valverde’s, a body comp to Papa Grande is only natural here. Like his fellow countryman, Frías uses a split and comfortably reaches the mid-90s with his heater. The stuff comparisons end there though, as the 23-year-old has a deeper arsenal, one that suggests a future in the rotation remains a possibility. Read the rest of this entry »

It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Cedric Mullins came out of nowhere, but the 26-year-old Baltimore Orioles outfielder has exceeded expectations in what is essentially his first full big-league season. Swinging exclusively from the left side, the former switch-hitter is slashing a stellar .318/.382/.539 with 20 home runs and a 151 wRC+ heading into Tuesday’s action. Moreover, his 4.7 WAR is tied for third-highest among MLB position players.

Mullins sat down to talk hitting when the Orioles visited Fenway Park this past weekend.

———

David Laurila: To start, how would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Cedric Mullins: “I would describe myself as someone whose primary focus is to get on base. I’ve always been a leadoff-type hitter, but I also have some power. When I see a pitch I can handle and am able to put a good swing on it, it might go over the fence. Maybe it will be a double.”

Laurila: What about your setup and swing path?

Mullins: “I’ve made some tweaks. We brought the technology and the robots out and got some numbers on what my swing path looks like and how I could make a few [changes] to be more consistent through the zone. For me, it’s more or less just ‘see the ball, get a pitch to hit, put a good swing on it,’ but at the same time, the game has changed so much. Now you can see what your body is doing on certain things. It’s a matter of being attentive to those.”

Laurila: What is your history with hitting analytics? Read the rest of this entry »

With the elimination of the waiver deadline, the last two months of the season (or more accurately now, the last six weeks) can leave front office personnel feeling like little more than helpless observers. Problems at the big league level, whether of the health or performance variety, are going to pop up, but for the most part, the answers to those problems have to come from within. Yes, there’s the occasional player who gets designated for assignment who deserves consideration, but otherwise teams will either lean on the depth they’ve spent much of the year trying to establish or curse the risks they took in terms of depth in order to improve their big league roster. Here are the depth situations for the American League playoff contenders, with the National League to follow tomorrow.

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays
Strengths: The Rays bolt together pitching staffs as well as any team in baseball, and there are plenty more pieces available to them at Triple-A Durham should the need arise. They load up on pitch-data darlings while also developing plenty from within, and the result has been the best record in the International League, with their staff generating a team-wide strikeout rate of over 28%. With five current Durham pitchers already on the 40-man roster, managing innings down the stretch shouldn’t be an issue, be it for need or just for the purposes of keeping players fresh. In terms of position players, Vidal Bruján continues to slot in all over the diamond; his ability to play six positions makes him the most likely hitter to be called up. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley follow up on a recent observation about a baseball-related line in Twilight, then banter about petards, Ben’s latest trip to see Shohei Ohtani at Yankee Stadium, Tyler Gilbert’s improbable no-hitter, the playoff hopes of the Padres, Reds, and Giants (and reshuffling in the NL East and AL East), the lows and highs of heckling, the Rockies’ historic home-road splits, Michael Schur adapting Field of Dreams for Peacock and the near future of baseball TV shows, Carter Stewart making his NPB debut and Kumar Rocker’s future, whether John Olerud would be a two-way player today, and Joey Votto’s revamped plate approach, plus a postscript on fun facts about sequences of wins and losses.

Audio intro: Chip Taylor, "Same Ol’ Story"
Audio outro: The Beach Boys, "Heads You Win–Tails I Lose"

Link to Davis catch
Link to Cole’s reaction to Ohtani
Link to Lindsey’s Gallo tweet
Link to article on seats moving farther from the field
Link to Ben on Gilbert’s no-hitter
Link to Twitter thread about man shouting “Dinger”
Link to Neil Paine on the Coors Field hangover effect
Link to Nick Groke on the Coors Field hangover effect
Link to all-time team home/road splits data
Link to xkcd comic about 2020
Link to story on Schur and Field of Dreams
Link to Schur EW episode
Link to story on Offerman and A League of Their Own
Link to story on Offerman’s Field of Dreams critiques
Link to stream Stove League
Link to Jim Allen on Stewart and Rocker
Link to box score from Stewart’s NPB debut
Link to ESPN on Olerud as a two-way player
Link to list of John Olerud Award winners
Link to first page of 1990 Olerud article
Link to second page of 1990 Olerud article
Link to Mike Petriello on Tatis’s position switch
Link to FanGraphs post on Tatis as an outfielder
Link to Ben on the rise of multiposition players
Link to Verducci on Votto
Link to Vieira’s record-breaking pitch
Link to win-loss sequence data

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Antonio Jimenez, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Level & Affiliate: Complex Level Age: 20 Org Rank: 26 FV: 40
Line: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 10 K

Notes
Jimenez is an electric little lefty (he stands about 5-foot-10) with big arm speed who sits 91-95 and has a plus two-plane slider that he commands. He’ll also show you the occasional average changeup. He’s loose and athletic and has viable starter’s command, though he arguably falls short of starter projection at the moment due to the combination of his present repertoire depth and size. With starter-level command already in place, I’m betting on changeup improvement due to the looseness/athleticism and care less about how small Jimenez is. He belongs in the Rays system ranked ahead of the hard-throwing relief-only arms. Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds have been surging lately, but they’ll be challenged to maintain their momentum with the loss of one of their biggest bats. On Monday they placed Jesse Winker on the injured list with an intercostal strain, costing them the services of one of the league’s top hitters for at least 10 days and perhaps longer. The move does at least have a silver lining via the promotion of top prospect Jose Barrero, who could help shore up the infield, but the loss of Winker comes at an inopportune time, as the race for the NL’s second Wild Card spot is as tight as it’s been since late May.

The 27-year-old Winker was initially scratched from the Reds’ lineup on Friday with what the Reds called lower back tightness, and he didn’t play on Saturday, either. He returned to the lineup on Sunday, but after flying out in each of his first two plate appearances, he left the game in the third inning. Afterwards, manager David Bell told reporters that Winker was actually dealing with an intercostal strain:

David Bell said Jesse Winker reaggravated his intercostal strain. "Felt it right at the end of the last swing he took. We'll have to start over tomorrow with having it looked at again." #Reds

— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) August 15, 2021

Winker underwent an MRI on Monday and was placed on the IL, after which Bell told reporters that the team doesn’t consider the injury “a long-term issue.” The Reds hope he can return in 10 days, but his landing on the IL is at least somewhat ominous. Per Derek Rhoads’ Hitter Injury Dashboard, position players who landed on the injured list with an intercostal strain from 2010-20 averaged 29.2 days missed, with a median of 27 days. Via MLB.com, even Grade 1 strains, the least severe, typically require two to three weeks to recover. Read the rest of this entry »

The Giants have been one of the year’s biggest surprises, leading the National League West for a large portion of the season and holding the best record in baseball since the beginning of June. Their success is due in large part to some unexpectedly resurgent seasons from their veteran core. On Friday, San Francisco rewarded one of those veterans, signing Brandon Crawford to a two-year, $32 million contract extension.

The Tigers haven’t been nearly as good as the Giants in 2021, but they’ve played some really competitive baseball after an ugly 8-19 April. A big reason for their change in fortunes has been some excellent production from Jonathan Schoop. After signing back-to-back one-year deals with Detroit the last two seasons, the team inked him to a two-year, $15 million contract extension on August 7.

Crawford, a Bay Area native, has spent his entire career with the Giants. He was selected in the fourth round of the 2008 draft and has been a fixture at shortstop since his major league debut in 2011. He’s the franchise leader in games played at at the position and was a key contributor to two World Series championships in 2012 and ’14. After the 2015 season, he signed a six-year, $75 million contract extension that would have expired at the end of this season. This new extension guarantees that Crawford remains a single-franchise player at least through his age-36 season, a feat that’s become increasingly rare in today’s game. Read the rest of this entry »

Eugenio Suárez is not a major league caliber shortstop. That’s no knock on him — pretty much no one in the entire world is, and he picked the position up out of necessity rather than because it was in his range. The Reds simply had no one to play there, and he looked like the least terrible option. The experiment didn’t last long — 32 games was enough to say that he was better suited for third base — but the team’s changed infield construction gave Jonathan India a big league shot, so it wasn’t all bad.

The hitting, on the other hand? That’s been all bad. Suárez has been restored to his natural spot at third base, and the Reds are mounting a playoff charge — but they’re doing so despite an absolutely abysmal season from the player we projected as their best before the season started. He’s hit .172/.259/.373, good for a 68 wRC+, and it’s worth asking whether this is just a blip on the radar or the beginning of the end for one of the sneakiest power hitters of recent years.

Let’s start with something that doesn’t seem to have gone wrong: Suárez is still hitting home runs at a solid clip. A full 18.3% of his fly balls have turned into homers this year, and while that’s not quite the rate he managed in 2019 or 2020, it’s still an excellent number, one that makes sense given how hard he hits the ball and the bandbox park the Reds call home. And he’s doing so despite a nagging shoulder injury that has plagued him since the start of the 2020 season.

In 471 plate appearances so far this year, Suárez has cranked 23 bombs. Plug those home run numbers in and use previous career rates to fill in the rest of his statistics, and he’d be doing just fine; he’d be hitting roughly .263/.344/.480. There’s all kinds of absurd math in there, and I’m not claiming that’s a reasonable projection for the season, but the power certainly hasn’t been the problem this year — at least at first glance. Read the rest of this entry »

The Learning and Developing a Pitch series returned in June after being on hiatus last season due to the pandemic. Each week, we’ll hear from three pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features Andrew Kittredge, Matt Manning, and Tyler Wells each discussing their slider.

——

Andrew Kittredge, Tampa Bay Rays

“It was after my freshman year of college, playing summer ball in Newport, Rhode Island. I actually started off calling it a cutter. It was pretty small, and it was firm. I was throwing my fastball anywhere from 90 to 94 [mph] and the cutter was around 89-91. Slowly, over time, I started getting around it a little bit more, and it got bigger and slower. By the time I got into pro ball, it was probably 83-85.

“It was a pretty good pitch for me — I had a good feel for it — and that’s kind of what I had up until 2019. Then I started throwing it harder again. I didn’t really change the grip, or my mindset, as much as I … well, the mindset was to try to stay behind it a little longer and accelerate through it at the end with hand speed. So while the velocity kind of jumped, I didn’t really plan on it doing that. The idea just was to try to tighten up the spin, and with the increased spin I added velocity. I also made it a little shorter; it’s not as big as it used to be. Read the rest of this entry »