One of the hardest decisions a GM has to make is when to cut ties with a franchise icon. Free agency usually comes around right as a player’s aging curve starts to get hairy, and in many cases the club would be better off shaking hands with the player and parting friends, rather than sinking hundreds of millions of dollars in order to force the fans to watch their hero decline.

Unless, of course, the player in question goes off and signs with a rival and keeps producing. In which case, not only is the original team worse off, everyone involved in the decision looks like an idiot. And not just that, a callous idiot, which is the worst kind of idiot to be.

As the last days of January whistle by, two of the top remaining free agents — Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso — find themselves in precisely the situation I’ve just described. And for that reason, both players and their former employers have re-engaged in contract talks to see if they can work things out after all. Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a sentence that you probably didn’t expect to see a few years ago: The Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the most exciting teams of 2024. They had the Rookie of the Year and an instant contender for best pitcher in baseball in Paul Skenes. Jared Jones was electric. They’re chock full of young hitting prospects. And let’s reiterate: Paul Skenes!

As you might expect, the Pirates hit this offseason with some momentum. It’s hard to find superstars, but Skenes is one of the best five pitchers on the planet, and honestly, I think he might be the best, period. This is the type of winter that lends itself to going for it. The hype will likely never be greater. Add a star or two around Skenes, fill out the bottom of the lineup, and this team could win a weak NL Central. Come playoff time, no one in the world would want to face the Pirates. So it’s with some remorse that I announce their latest signings. On Monday, lefty reliever Tim Mayza agreed to a one-year, $1.15 million contract; on Tuesday, utilityman Adam Frazier followed suit with a one-year, $1.525 million pact.

Frazier was a fun story the last time he was on the Pirates. In the depths of their despair, he was a rare burst of energy, Luis Arraez before Arraez hit the big time. He rarely struck out, rarely hit homers, and caused chaos by putting the ball in play even without blazing speed. Heck, he even drew a nice trade return when the Pirates sent him to the Padres ahead of the 2021 deadline, headlined by Jack Suwinski and Tucupita Marcano, both of whom have made contributions to the big league club. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the final team this year is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

After an extremely disappointing 2023 with Juan Soto in tow, the Padres bounced back to punch above their weight without him in 2024, thus giving less analytically inclined observers ample ammunition to reach spectacularly wrong conclusions about cause and effect. Losing Soto didn’t help the Padres, but a phenomenally successful move to the rotation for Michael King, a rebound season from Fernando Tatis Jr., and a stunning rookie campaign from Jackson Merrill did a lot to make up for his absence. (It also helped that they didn’t underperform their Pythagorean record by 10 wins like they did in 2023.) Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about some good news and bad news about breakout picks, Junior Caminero’s unbeatable bat flip and home run trot in the LIDOM playoffs, the latest MLB The Show cover model(s) and the lone MLB franchise that hasn’t put a player on the cover of a video game, the Ryan Pressly trade and whether Houston has a plan, and the mysteries of T-Mobile Park’s scoring suppression, plus a Stat Blast (1:28:57) about the players who came closest to team monogamy without quite being faithful to one franchise.

Audio intro: Luke Lillard, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme”

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As the reliever market picked up over the last week, two right-handers, both former closers, found new homes in the Central divisions. First, last Wednesday, Paul Sewald agreed to a one-year deal with the Cleveland Guardians. Then, on Sunday, Ryan Pressly waived his no-trade clause in order for the Houston Astros to send him to the Chicago Cubs for the final guaranteed year of his contract.

While both of these pitchers are likely past their peaks in terms of stuff, they’ll look to continue being contributors with their new clubs. Let’s examine the potential impact of these moves and discuss how the two pitchers will fit into the bullpens of their new teams.

Sewald Joins Elite Cleveland Bullpen

Coming off a down year relative to his previous three seasons, Sewald’s deal with the Guardians is for one year and $6 million, with a $10 million mutual option for 2026. The move solidifies the middle part of their bullpen, which already was one of the best in the majors. With Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis anchoring the group, Sewald will occupy a lesser role than he’s held over the last few years. That’s not a bad thing for him, as he can work to return to form without the pressure of having to deliver in high-leverage innings.

As velocities have increased over the years, and hitters have adapted to them, the margins for error for pitchers living in the low-90s band have grown thinner and thinner. What we saw from Sewald last season is a good example of what happens when pitchers with such a profile lose even just one tick on their fastballs.

From 2021-23, a three-year stretch during which Sewald was one of the better relievers in baseball, his four-seamer ranged from 92.2 mph to 92.5 mph. It was extremely consistent on that front. Then, in 2024, that number dropped down to 91.4 mph on average, and with that, his performance also dropped. Here is a quick summary of how Sewald’s performance on his heater regressed last season:

As his fastball velocity fell last year, Sewald saw a sharp decrease in its effectiveness by both whiffs and overall performance. This could be related to the pitch’s location and its release angle; over the last four seasons, he’s been throwing his fastball progressively higher and higher in the zone and releasing it closer to the middle of the pitcher’s mound. Combine that with a dip in velocity and, suddenly, the pitch was just more normal than it had been in the past.

Another problem for Sewald last year was his sweeper, the pitch that was most responsible for turning him into a high-leverage reliever upon joining the Mariners in 2021. His overall numbers with it suggest it was still a weapon — he held opponents to a .196 average (.214 xBA) and a .214 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) against it — but a closer look tells a different story.

During his aforementioned three-year stretch of excellence, he was comfortable throwing his sweeper to both lefties and righties as a way to keep them off his fastball. In each of those three seasons, he threw his sweeper at least 45% of the time against righties and at least 35% of the time when facing lefties, and it was effective against both sides. That’s especially important because Sewald is mostly a two-pitch pitcher. Last year, however, lefties teed off on his sweeper. Check this out:

So what changed? Perhaps some of it can be attributed to his diminished fastball velocity, which has cut the velocity gap between his fastball and sweeper to 8.3 mph, down from 9.7 in 2022. Except, the velo difference between the two pitches was also 8.3 mph in 2023, and that season both pitches were still effective against lefties and righties. The greater issue here seems to be the same thing that threw off his fastball: his release point, which also shifted more toward the middle of the mound when throwing his sweeper. As a result, he struggled to command his sweeper in 2024, as you can see in these two heat maps. The first one is from 2023, the second from 2024.

He started throwing the pitch more in the middle plate and less often out of the zone. Even with lesser command, he could still keep righties at bay with his sweeper because the pitch breaks away from them. Against lefties, though, he has less margin for error with his location. Sweepers that remain in the zone against lefties break nicely into their bat paths. That’s not a recipe for success.

It’s worth noting that some of Sewald’s struggles in 2024 could be injury-related, as he dealt with both neck and oblique injuries that could’ve caused his dip in velocity. These ailments might also explain his change in location and horizontal release point, as the neck and oblique muscles are especially important for a pitcher’s upper-body mechanics. Sewald turns 35 in late May, so some of his diminished stuff could be attributed to aging, but if he is healthy, we should expect him to have some sort of rebound — even if he doesn’t get back to the peak performance from his days with the Mariners.

Pressly Takes Over as Cubs Closer

For most of the offseason, the Astros have been trying to trade Pressly to shed some salary, and as they revived their efforts to re-sign Alex Bregman last week, moving Pressly seemed to become an even greater priority. Of course, Houston has not yet brought back Bregman, but either way, trading Pressly gave the Astros more financial flexibility.

Houston sent over $5.5 million to cover Pressly’s salary this season, but nothing if his contract vests for 2026. The Cubs sent back Juan Bello, a 20-year-old pitching prospect who was recently ranked no. 31 on the Cubs’ prospect list. Bello is a 35+ FV starting pitcher who, according to our prospect writers Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice, “has enough projectability and existing stuff to be forecast in a depth starter role, but he’ll need to harness his secondaries in the zone more often to consistently get more advanced hitters out and turn over a lineup.”

The 36-year-old Pressly had been a valuable member of the bullpen since the Astros traded for him in late July 2018, and during the same three-year stretch in which Sewald shined, Pressly emerged as one of the top closers in the American League. However, Houston’s signing of Josh Hader before last season relegated Pressly to a setup role and ultimately made him expendable this offseason. Astros GM Dana Brown said earlier today that the Hader signing and Pressly’s corresponding demotion in the bullpen pecking order caused a “fracture” in his and Pressly’s relationship. Now with the Cubs, Pressly is expected to return to closing games.

Similar to Sewald, Pressly is coming off a season with a notable decrease in velocity, from 94.7 mph in 2023 to 93.8 mph last year. His diminishing fastball didn’t exactly come as a surpsise, though. In 2022, batters posted a .402 xwOBA against his four-seamer, and in response, he cut its usage from 32.9% that year down to 23.1% in 2023. He leaned more on his slider, which for years has been his best pitch by run value by a wide margin. It’s odd, then, that he used his four-seamer more often than any other pitch in 2024. This pitch mix shift didn’t pay off, as opponents slugged .500 against his heater with a .371 wOBA and a .365 xwOBA, compared to their .333 SLG, .276 wOBA, and .271 xwOBA against his slider. I imagine Chicago will get him back to throwing primarily sliders again next season. For some more context, here is a three-year snapshot of Pressly’s Stuff+ and usage for his three main pitches:

Relievers who switch teams looking for bounce backs are always fun stories to follow. Both Sewald and Pressly are in the later stages of their careers but have an opportunity to be important contributors on contending clubs. I’ll be paying attention to any potential adjustments they make come spring time.

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! For the first time in awhile I’m on my second chat of the month, as the Hall of Fame election is now behind us

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Before I forget: I’m going to be part of Nick Pollock’s PitchCon this Friday at 3 PM, doing  — what else — a Hall of Fame-related presentation while helping to raise $ for ALS research https://pitcherlist.com/pitchcon/2025/

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Please check it out if so inclined

12:03

Jay Jaffe: I’m very lucky to be in a position where FanGraphs give me as much space to cover the candidates and the Hall of Fame process. It’s a lot of fun, and i know it’s something people care deeply about. As I like to say, it’s been my dumb luck to happen upon a resource that is practically a renewable source of energy

12:05

Jay Jaffe: Given that the Veterans/Era Committees are generally about 50% players, it’s not surprising that they default to the more mainstream statistics which are not only usually offense-related but also centered more around old-school stats (AVG-HR-RBI, W-L) than new-school ones. That’s a lot of what drives the choices — with less thought to defense

12:06

Jay Jaffe: which isn’t to say that WAR and JAWS don’t get mentioned – I’ve been told my stuff gets circulated in the room but that’s not to say it’s driving voters’ choices

Read the rest of this entry »

Last time we saw Tobias Myers, he was beating the bejeezus out of the New York Mets in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series: Five innings, 66 pitches, five strikeouts, no walks, two hits allowed, one hit batter. Being a rookie starting pitcher in a playoff game in the 2020s, he exited early, but having allowed zero runs, it was to a chorus of Hosannas mixed with “Who the heck is this guy?”

Myers’ chief weapon in his most famous start was his slider, which he threw 31.8% of the time, generating four whiffs, two foul balls, and three called strikes. The Mets made contact seven times, resulting in six outs.

But Myers’ most effective pitch during the regular season — at least on a per-pitch basis — was his changeup. Myers threw 245 of those across his 138 regular-season innings, resulting in a whiff rate of 44.4% and an opponent batting average of .083. Only four of the 27 changeups that were put in play turned into hits, and because all four of those were singles, Myers’ had an opponent SLG to match his opponent batting average: .083. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Mets owner Steve Cohen addressed his team’s ongoing contract negotiations with Pete Alonso. During a panel discussion in front of fans, he expounded on the process at length:

“We made a significant offer to Pete. He’s entitled to explore his market. That’s what he is doing. Personally, this has been an exhausting conversation and negotiation. I mean, Soto was tough — this is worse. A lot of it is, we made a significant offer … I don’t like the structures that are being presented back to us. It’s highly asymmetric against us. And I feel strongly about it. I will never say no. There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward. And as we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have. That’s where we are. And I am being brutally honest. I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s been presented to us. Listen, maybe that changes. Certainly, I’ll always stay flexible. If it stays this way, I think we are going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”

That quote caught my eye for a few reasons. First, the length! That’s not a no comment or even close to one. He noted a few specific points where the negotiations had gotten stuck, mentioned that the deal gets less likely as the offseason goes on, and at least nodded in the direction of how an Alonso offer affects team construction. That’s not exactly par for the course when owners give quotes; I’m looking at you, Bill DeWitt Jr., who early this winter said, “The best way to build a championship club is to have good young players.”

Second, I kept coming back to “highly asymmetric against us.” I can’t help it. I’m a contract nerd. I immediately started thinking about what that could mean. The possibilities are nearly endless. Accumulators? Collars? Conditional ownership share? Alonso gets to choose the roster every Tuesday?

Well, probably not. Agent Scott Boras threw some cold water on my ideas in a response. “Pete’s free-agent contract structure request[s] are identical to the standards and practices of other clubs who have signed similarly situated qualifying-offer/all-star level players,” he told The Athletic’s Will Sammon. “Nothing different. Just established fairness standards.”
Read the rest of this entry »

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